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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • No way.... ENIC
    Are you asking why the beta is so low in magnitude (since the price moves sharply, one might expect the beta to be higher), or why it's that high, or even why it isn't negative (since the US market has trended up in the past few months while ENIC has trended down)? I really can't tell what you're expecting from this chart.
    One can take the data from the past 12 months and smooth it by looking at monthly returns. In seven months (Oct, Nov and Dec 2020, Jan, March, Aug and Sept 2021) it moved in the same direction as the US equity market; in the other five months it moved in the opposite direction. Consequently one might expect a relatively flat (small slope, i.e. beta) regression line.
    See this PortfolioVisualizer chart comparing ENIC and VFIAX. Clicking on the Metrics shows a beta for ENIC of 0.84, but with a small R² of just 21%.
    Regardless of what value the calculation produces for beta, it's pretty much meaningless because of the low correlation.
    Of course I'm assuming that your beta is relative to the US market. If you're using a different (and hopefully better) benchmark, that could make the beta value meaningful.
  • No way.... ENIC
    but, so... that chart makes it clear: how in the world can the beta on ENIC be 0.65? That's absurd.
    Point taken.
    Terrible confession here - I don’t look at beta and couldn’t have told you what it was without reading this link. What is beta?.
    Being a utility, one would expect a low beta. If this is domiciled in Chili, that’s another matter. Personally, charts are where I look before buying anything. That and things like PEs / balance sheets / prospects for type of fund or industry.
    @Crash - Your entry point of $2.97 sounds reasonable looking at the chart. The stock peaked out at near $4.50 within the past year.
    ENIC Group Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIC_Group
    Enel Chili Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enel_Generación_Chile
    I’m not sure that .65 beta pertained to the Chilean utility. See above links. Appear to be two different companies.
    Wondering if these are listed under two different stock exchanges and the “ENIC” symbol is perhaps leading to confusion?
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Howdy folks,
    It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
    All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
    Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
    The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
    1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
    2. Kids at home.
    3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
    4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
    5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
    6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
    7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
    Sokay, how to play?
    Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
    New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
    Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
    Just a start of a discussion.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    It was a nice clean calculation (+1).
    One needs to read the source cited for the estimated 2022 premium to discover the ultimate source. That's the 2021 annual report of the Medicare trustees.
    https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf
    A few items in that report worth mentioning:
    1. The premium is computed based on expected 2022 costs for Medicare (pdf p.26, second paragraph). That's no different from what virtually every other insurer does when setting premiums. This calculation is de novo; it does not look at what the premium was last year.
    2. The $158.50 estimate does not (yet?) include the impact of covering Aduhelm (pdf p94, bottom paragraph). So that might affect the final numbers.
    3. There's a $3 claw back for some premium reductions (hold harmless reductions and the 2021 cap on the premium increase). Pdf p. 89. This is projected to be added onto premiums through 2025 (pdf. p 90, 2nd full paragraph).
    In a desperate attempt to relate this to mutual funds, I'll point out that this claw back is very similar to the claw back that mutual funds employ with temporary fee waivers. See, e.g. TRBUX (gross ER 0.29%, but net ER of 0.31% including a 0.02% claw back).
  • Sports betting
    Hi @Derf -
    Michigan legalized online gaming early in 2021. I’ve mixed feelings. The thought of some father squandering away the rent money spinning a roulette wheel or playing black-jack online is not a little troubling.. This (legalization) is part of a trend nationwide aimed at increasing state revenues. My “interest” has been limited to small wagers on NCAA basketball games being watched evenings during our darkest winter months. Looked at 2 or 3 betting sites and thought for what I wanted DKNG was tops. It’s a smooth operation. What’s appealing is the ability to buy and sell positions while the game is in progress. ISTM That to large extent you’re basically wagering against the “crowd” following along at the same time. I ended the season with a profit of $8.00 (yes - eight dollars). Have done somewhat better with the stock. :)
    After moving to Fido it became possible to acquire individual stocks. So I plunked a very small amount down on DKNG - which I still own. One allure of having some individual stocks is they often move opposite the major indexes, actually serving to mitigate daily volatility inside a predominately fund centric portfolio. The biggest drawback is their wild fluctuations over time. (See @Crash’s recent post). Charts showed DKNG had topped $70 earlier in the year. It had fallen to the mid $40s when I picked a bit up. So it’s ranged from over $70 to below $40 this year. It’s probably the smallest investment (amount) of anything I own.
    Since announcing an attempt to acquire a large European gaming company a month or more ago, DKNG has been in a downward slide - mid $40 range at present. Here’s a FT LINK to that takeover story - not yet completed. Here’s an alternative STORY if unable to link the FT article. (It’s normal for acquiring companies’ stock prices to fall initially.) A short seller with a good track record (for integrity) broadsided DKNG in June with a report one of their recent acquisitions had ties to organized crime in Europe. That’s the main reason the stock fell back than.
    I wasn’t aware of the SPAC deal you referenced. However, it’s likely part of a a “dog-eat-dog” battle going on among the top betting sites in the U.S. There are more than a half dozen players, with DraftKings and Fan Duel neck & neck. MGM in pursuit. It’s thought the market will only support about 3. So the fight is over market dominance before it’s too late. That may shed light on your story. There is an investigation into the charges against DKNG by the U.S. government - not sure which agency. And a big unknown is NY state. Apparently they will allow only some players to operate there when online gaming starts. The big fear is that taxes on their profits will be so high the companies won’t be able to operate profitably.
    Not sure if these companies qualify as “meme“ types - but people should be aware they are wildly popular among small retail investors and, hence, possibly overvalued. Cathie Wood picked up a slug of DKNG about the time I acquired my holding.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!
    If your heart is set on Pimco Income, you may be able to buy the somewhat more expensive institutional I-3 share class PIPNX in your Fidelity 401K.
    It's a solid long term holding, though it has at best been mediocre in the past three years relative to its peers (46th percentile). You can see that in this M* chart, which compares it to the average multisector bond fund (which it tracks very closely) and to the average high yield bond fund (which has greater volatility but otherwise follows a similar path).
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Buying dips is easy. Catching a falling knife is difficult. Selling just before a dip is damn impossible . Hence why most studies show buy and hold works for most people.
    I kind of think when people here say they bought the dip they are talking about a fraction of their portfolio. Again the benefit is not very significant versus risk compared to buy and hold. Could be wrong but I doubt it.
    Agreed on everything except your reference to "a fraction of their portfolio." That does not describe my particular case.
    I'm a LT, B&H, TR investor who significantly increased my stock exposure by about 50% through BTD since the March 2020 crash.
    Funds for ALL BTDs was from cash, CD proceeds and bond OEF sales. Most funds came from CD ladder rungs that fell off during that period and I chose to not replace and instead BTD.
    It has worked tremendously well for me since March 2020.
    Really tired of trying to explain that and going to move on from this thread after two more replies.
  • No way.... ENIC
    but, so... that chart makes it clear: how in the world can the beta on ENIC be 0.65? That's absurd.
  • No way.... ENIC
    Part of investing. Individual stocks can really get knocked around.
    image
  • A Flexible Fund Adept at Finding Income - FMSDX / by Lewis Braham in Barron’s
    “Adam Kramer is used to finding value in unusual places. He grew up in Montreal with two favorite activities as a child—collecting hockey cards and reading Barron’s every week …
    “His sharp eye for investing opportunities is especially critical now, when the landscape for fixed-income investing feels a bit like a minefield. Interest rates are almost zero. Some investors worry that recent economic-stimulus packages could spark a bond rout if higher inflation follows. (Interest rates rise with inflation, and bond prices move inversely to rates.) But a resurgence of Covid-19 cases could cause the opposite effect—another economic downturn, which would likely drive some lower credit-quality bond issuers into bankruptcy.
    “In this environment, income-hungry investors need flexibility, and a willingness to go beyond bond-only investments. Fidelity Multi-Asset Income offers that. The $1.4 billion fund can invest anywhere for income—dividend-paying stocks, high- or low-quality corporate bonds, U.S. or foreign government bonds, preferred stocks, convertible bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and master limited partnerships (MLPs). Such flexibility has produced strong results. The fund’s 16.7% three-year annualized return beats 99% of its peers in Morningstar’s Allocation—30% to 50% Equity fund category.”

    -
    Nice article. I note the fund appears to have 58% invested in equities - certainly not your typical “income” fund. And, its largest holding, WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) just happens to be a stock I picked up a couple weeks back when it was mired in the weeds. I plan to hold it forever. I think that’s why Barron’s editors included the photo of Mr. Kramer in the weeds (searching for another bargain).
    image
    Excerpt from Barron’s, October 18, 2021 LINK
  • No way.... ENIC
    OK, so: I would have been luckier (?) if I'd waited to buy. Big players are using arbitrage, and this stock has been shorted until it's no taller than the width of a dime. It DOES pay a dividend. Some big investment banks have lately begun rating it, and giving it an Overweight grade. (Goldman, JPM.) ...But since this stock has been played like a yo-yo (or a violin) by "investors" whom I suspect of criminal shit--- driving the price down and down and down--- I can hardly believe my eyes when I see the Bloomberg webpage saying the Beta on ENIC is only 0.65. I mean, WTF.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    No worry @Mark. I appreciate your suggestion on I bond. With low interest rate and higher inflation, there are limited viable choices for income investors.
    In one of the TRP interview with Sebastian Page who stated future allocation may need to adjust upward with higher equity allocation since bonds yield too little for retirees. Something like 70/30 or even 80/20 instead of the traditional 60/40 or 50/50.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    @crash, I don't want to pry, but I'm assuming your net is the same as your gross, meaning you are not being taxed on the SS income. That is what stillers is showing. Using your actual gross if different from net may be more accurate for calculating your increase.
    Below are the Fed tax rules I found for gross/net differences. Not sure what your state income tax rules are.
    What Percentage of Social Security Is Taxable? If you file as an individual, your Social Security is not taxable only if your total income for the year is below $25,000. Half of it is taxable if your income is between $25,000 and $34,000. If your income is higher than that, up to 85% of your benefits may be taxable.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    I think that the main point of his article was a 'safe' +5% return on one's investment in the near term. I realize that it probably does not work for everyone. Also, $30K might be considered a bit small for a certain percentage of market participants but I would guess that it might be a stretch for a larger population.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    Thanks Edmond...great insights! Full disclosure, our household has 3 retirement accounts currently - IRA Rollover (Me), IRA Rollover (Wife) and a 401k (Me at my current Employer)
    The 3 Bond Funds I own (1 in each) are DODIX, BCOIX and GIBLX...
    GIBLX is in my 401k and this account s my active/tactical account where I take more risk and move $$$ around. The Rollovers are pretty stable and I like to make minor adjustments.
    Next move is to find a Fund to pair with GIBLX in my 401k...I've owned PIMIX in the past and have looked at PTIAX too. I have been tracking TCEIX but I can get that exposure with PIMIX...
    Bond Funds are not as easy to research with their returns all muted in the past 5 years and not knowing whats under the hood. Cash isn't cash and Gov't issues could be multiple securities. Derivatives, Sovereign/Non-Dollar denominated debt...
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    The 5.9% COLA will be applied to your Gross SS Bene.
    Backing into your Bene from what you just posted, and assuming you ONLY have Pt B deducted, here are the rough estimates...
    2021 Gross Bene: $1,146.00+148.50=1,294.50
    2022 Gross Bene $1,294.50*1.059=$1,370.88
    2022 Net Bene: $1,370.88-158.50**=$1,212.38
    2022 Increase: $1,212-$1,146.00=$66.00
    ** = ESTIMATED Pt B Premium deduction per
    https://www.medicareresources.org/faqs/how-much-does-medicare-part-b-cost/
    See also latest posts on:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58777/ss-increase-what-to-do#latest
    Disclaimer: The above is calc'd based on what you just posted, the assumption that you only have the standard Pt B amount deducted and the referenced 2022 Pt B estimate.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    $1,146 is my net SS monthly, after Medicare takes their cut. 5.9% increase, if I recall from a few days ago, is $67.00...... $1,146 plus $67.00 = $1,213.00. What's my monthly SS payment going to be?
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    KHaw -- with Tad Rivelle leaving 12/2022, I'd be looking to leave too.
    Baird and D&C are both very good funds. WRT funds at Fido, here are a couple core/core+ funds you may wish to consider/evaluate as to suitability:
    GIBLX. These guys tend more to make "high conviction" (read riskier) bets then some other funds. Nothing too wild. And they are usually right, if not immediately, then eventually.
    PTIAX = I like the way these guys think/explain their positions. They tend to own pieces of the bond market which other funds don't. To that extent they could serve as a diversifier vs. other bond fund positions.
    OMBAX. (mortgage) Actively-managed, since there is little credit risk/spreads, the managers throttle portfolio duration up/down depending on their outlook for the direction of rates. They are adept at this. I've been using this (along with another fund I will discuss below) as a place to park cash for a couple years. Duration is presently less than 1/2 of the AGG. It has discretion to shift duration 2-10 years. They generally take on duration ONLY when they are compensated to do so.
    I think PIMCO funds should be given careful consideration. PIMCO is Bill Gross' enduring legacy. Fidelity offers "A" shares. If you have serious money in bond funds, I would encourage buying institutional-class shares. Many are available at Wellsfargo/Wellstrade for no minimums.
    PIMIX - my longest-lived, and 2nd largest fund position. As a multi-sector fund, its more volatile than the "core-plus" funds. But its returns justify the modestly higher volatility.
    PTRIX (mortgage). My largest bond position. Its among the least-known of PIMCO funds - M* perennially mis-classifies the fund as 'core-plus". Because of its low risk profile its returns seem paltry vs much riskier "core-plus" offerings. PTRIX is really a short/inter govt fund. Like OMBAX (mentioned above), the managers make tactical interest rate bets. They excel at this. Duration moves 1-7 years. This fund is a bit more "free wheeling" than its sister GNMA fund PDMIX. Slightly better returns, edges out just a wee bit more on the risk scale with more non-agencies. Still, very safe. -- For those thinking "mortgages=BORING", keep in mind the "core bond funds" (MWTRX, PTTRX, etc) have been largely managed to be extremely safe "cash like" funds since the GFC. In the past 5 or so years, PTRIX has earned MWTRX-like returns with only 2/3 of the volatility...
    good luck!
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    If you like FMSDX for less risk and it's reported 3.07% yield then you might want to consider this from Jim Sloan at SeekingAlpha:
    The I Bond Yield Just Hit 5.33% And Beats All Other Safe Assets; Buy Before November 1