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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anybody holding DUST?
    Came across this one today. It’s being suggested by some pundits as a hedge against your gold mining stocks falling further.
    The description from Lipper:
    “The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The Fund creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in: futures contracts; options on securities, indices and futures.”
    DUST is off -71% over the past 3 years. Think I’d rather fry along with some mining stocks than try to catch this one. Gold’s been in a see-saw all year, bouncing between $1700 and around $1850. It appears to be on its way down again after topping-out only a few weeks ago.Just below $1800 at present. But this kind of erratic behavior is pretty typical. Limit your exposure. Don’t chase on the way up or down.
  • December Commentary is posted …
    My best friend of over 50 years I met as a roommate my first year at CMU in ‘65. Both in our late 70s now, we sometimes contemplate the unthinkable. “With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.”
  • December Commentary is posted …
    Hi, guys.
    It's "announced" now, so it will stay atop the page.
    One got a sense that something was up when Debbi called my cellphone yesterday morning for the first time ... well, ever. The conversation started with the words, "Oh, David ..." and sobbing. The day did not noticeably improve from there. (sigh) Thanks for your kind thoughts at a tough time.
    I have no particular opinion on the Church of Latter Day Saints, but I am slightly amazed by the consistency with which the Utah-based funds succeed as investors, as citizens and as teachers. Maybe it's the tang of salt in the air?
    I'd put Osterweis on the same shortlist with Mairs & Power for small firms that get it quietly right over really sustained periods. I might be too enthused by the Brown Advisory fund, but finding for a flaw in their execution is challenging. And the artificial wall between open-end funds and exchange-traded funds is being pierced almost daily. The same companies that dominate the OEF space are moving to dominate the ETF space though conversions and clones.
    Originally I'd hoped to name this site FundWatch.com. A squatter in the Netherlands wanted $25,000 for the URL so, no. (Mercer now owns it.) To the extent we have an active going-forward, it would be good to find a way to signal the fact that we care about pooled investment vehicles (PIVWatch?) and recognize that the wrapper makes a difference in only a few special instances (you can't close an ETF to new investments so in a capacity-constrained strategy, you need an OEF, as an example).
    Cheers and holiday good wishes!
    David
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    I reached a knowledgeable guy in tech at Schwab who says they started transitioning to this new bank type authorization last month, because it is more secure and does not share our passwords with Quicken. Tha is when the "zz" started showing up.
    He admits Quicken has yet to fix it.
    Yesterday, with his help I was able to download my transactions using "Schwab Bank Investor-C" one of the options that pops up it you type "schwab" into the search bar at "Add an account". Others have used this successfully.
    Investor Bank C is a legitimate Schwab web site
    First you have to erase the "zz or zzz- Schwab" nomenclature in the financial institution, and deactivate the account.
    Then add the accounts back by searching for Schwab in the add account window but use Investor C instead of "Schwab & co"
    Some people have had trouble getting accounts listed but I got all my accounts linked to this Bank Investor C
    Unfortunately, although it still works, it has changed my brokerage accounts transaction menu into bank types. So no more dividend reimbursements, just deposit and wthdrawals. Even sales are just "withdrawals". You can edit them
    The other idea Schwab guy had was to go into
    TOOLs> Online center
    Click on "contact info" at top while holding downs CTRL SHIFT
    a window will pop up
    click boxes next to "financial branding " and "download F1 list"
    Refresh
    then Update/Send.
    He assumed that would instantaneously change the "Investor C" to "Schwab & Co" which it did not
    This morning I am still able to download transactions , but only from Investor C, per above and all as bank account transactions. I am able to edit them to "sales" and reinvestments
    Deactivating the account and using Schwab & Co to log in gives me the CC-501 error message, where all this started.
    So nothing has really changed, other than I have accurate balances in my accounts
    I will touch base with schwab and when I have the entire day to spend will try Quicken support
  • Tax Calculator for 2021 Tax Returns Due in 2022
    I find it very helpful to play around with tax estimates (using a tax calculator) in December. In some cases, it is the last chance to make contributions (such as employee retirement plans) that might impact your tax return. Also some investors employ tax harvesting strategies to capture losses. There are many more considerations. I linked a few articles I found. You may have some to share.
    Here's a easy to use tax calculator for TY2021:
    https://efile.com/tax-service/tax-calculator/2021-tax-calculator/

    Articles on last minute tax related financial decisions:

    14-last-minute-moves-that-can-boost-your-tax-refund
    2021-last-minute-year-end-tax-deductions
    /december-2021-tax-moves
    dont-miss-out-on-these-last-minute-tax-savings-tips-for-2021
  • Guide to the $15,000 First-Time Homebuyer Act of 2021
    I came across this. Might be of interest to new homeowners, which means you have not owned a home in the last 36 months. This may still be bill.
    https://homebuyer.com/learn/15000-first-time-home-buyer-tax-credit
  • December Commentary is posted …
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2021/12/
    “I learned this morning that my best friend of nearly 50 years, Nicholas Burnett, professor emeritus at Sacramento State, was being removed from life support.”
    Sorry to hear of your loss David.
  • Rubbing Some VIX over the S&P 500 Index
    I also watch SKEW. High SKEW indicates high level of hedging activity via puts. This is similar to put-call ratio but instead of volumes, SKEW uses relative prices of nearby calls and puts. Unfortunately, both VIX and SKEW tend to act as coincident indicators.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SKEW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78279191114
  • Rubbing Some VIX over the S&P 500 Index
    The VIX (Volatility Index) is closing in on 30 this AM. We touched above this level one year ago (Nov. 30, 2020) when we briefly reach the 33 level.
    Here's a chart of the VIX showing it's movement over the last 5 years along with the S&P 500.
    image
  • JP Morgan converts four OEFs to ETfs

    497 1 d245107d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    JPMORGAN TRUST I
    J.P. Morgan Income Funds
    JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond Fund
    JPMORGAN TRUST II
    J.P. Morgan International Equity Funds
    JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund
    J.P. Morgan U.S. Equity Funds
    JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Index Fund
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    JPMorgan Realty Income Fund
    (Class R2, Class R5 and Class R6 Shares)
    Supplement dated December 1, 2021
    to the Current Prospectuses, as supplemented
    As previously supplemented on August 11, 2021, at meetings held on August 9, 2021, the Boards of Trustees agreed to consider in early 2022 the conversion of the following four mutual funds to newly created exchange-traded funds (the “ETFs”) (each, a “Conversion”):
    •JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond Fund
    •JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund
    •JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Index Fund
    •JPMorgan Realty Income Fund
    Each new ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the current mutual funds. If approved by the Boards of Trustees, it is anticipated that the Conversions would occur in 2022.
    By converting these strategies to ETFs, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. (“JPMIM”), the investment adviser for the mutual funds, believes shareholders in these mutual funds could benefit from reduced costs, including lower transfer agency costs for certain classes and no Rule 12b-1 or service fees. JPMIM is communicating the proposed plans prior to formal board approval, in order to provide shareholders with ample notice of the planned Conversions and allow them time to engage with JPMIM on the implications of the proposed transactions, including the need to have a brokerage account prior to the Conversion.
    Each Conversion would consist of (1) the transfer of all or substantially all of the mutual fund’s assets, subject to its liabilities, to the corresponding shell ETF for shares of the ETF; and (2) the distribution of the ETF shares to the mutual fund shareholders in complete liquidation of the mutual fund. It is anticipated that if approved by the Boards of Trustees, each Conversion will not require shareholder approval.
    When the Conversions are considered, each Board of Trustees, including the Trustees not deemed to be “interested persons” of the mutual funds pursuant to Section 2(a)(19) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, will need to determine whether it is in the best interests of the target mutual fund and that the Conversion would not dilute the interests of the mutual fund’s shareholders.
    The new ETFs have not commenced investment operations, and it is anticipated that each will not have shareholders prior to the Conversion. If the Conversions are approved by the Boards of Trustees, existing shareholders of each mutual fund will receive prior to the Conversion a combined information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Conversion and the surviving ETF, and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Conversion.
    It is anticipated that each Conversion will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain or loss in connection with the Conversion, except to the extent that they receive cash in connection with the liquidation of any fractional shares received in the Conversion.
    In connection with the proposed Conversions discussed herein, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the information statement/prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until the registration statement is declared effective by the SEC. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Conversions. After they are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at www.jpmorganfunds.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 1-800-480-4111 .
    This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
    PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    J.P. MORGAN TRUST I
    JPMorgan Income Funds
    JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond Fund
    J.P. MORGAN TRUST II
    JPMorgan International Funds
    JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund
    JPMorgan U.S. Equity Funds
    JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Index Fund
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    JPMorgan Realty Income Fund
    (each, a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”)
    (Class R2, Class R5 and Class R6 Shares)
    Supplement dated December 1, 2021
    to the current Prospectuses, as supplemented
    As previously supplemented on November 23, 2021, as announced on August 11, 2021, the Boards of Trustees have agreed to consider in early 2022 the conversion of the Funds to newly created exchange-traded funds (the “ETFs”) (each, a “Conversion”). If the Conversions are approved, each new ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the current Fund. In connection with the Conversions, the Board of Trustees considered and approved certain actions described below. Each of the actions will be implemented on January 18, 2022 (the “Effective Date”) only if the Boards of Trustees approve the Conversions.
    On the Effective Date, the following will be added as a new section for each of the Funds except the JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund under the heading “Investing with J.P. Morgan Funds — LIMITED OFFERING — Funds Subject to a Limited Offering — Limited Offering of Class A and Class C Shares”
    Class A and C Shares (each, a “Limited Class”) are publicly offered only on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase a Limited Class except as described below. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders permitted to continue to purchase shares of a Limited Class include existing shareholders of record and, if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the effective date of the limited offering.
    • Existing shareholders of each Limited Class may continue to purchase additional shares of the Limited Class in their existing Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund.
    •Group Retirement Plans (as defined in the glossary) (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), which have a Limited Class available may continue to open accounts for new participants and can purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts.
    For JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund, the following will replace the current disclosure under “Investing with J.P. Morgan Funds — LIMITED OFFERING — Limited Offering of Certain Share Classes” on the Effective Date:
    Class A Shares of the JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund (the “Limited Class”) are publicly offered only on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase the Limited Class except as described below. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders permitted to continue to purchase shares of the Limited Class include existing shareholders of record and, if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the effective date of the limited offering...
  • Bulls, Bears and Pigs
    The Intelligent Investor - Jason Zweig WSJ
    "All this puts me in mind of an old Wall Street proverb: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
    Versions of the saying have been circulating since 1905, according to lexicographer Barry Popik. The general idea — you can make money being optimistic, you can make money being pessimistic, but you'll be wiped out if you get too greedy — has probably been around for millennia.
    My favorite modern version of the saying comes from the financier André Kostolany: "I can’t tell you how to get rich quickly. I can only tell you how to get poor quickly: by trying to get rich quickly."
    It can pay to be a bull, and it can pay to be a bear. But it's always dangerous to be a pig, and there's no better time to remember that than December."
    Note: One may need a WSJ subscription to read.
    ARTICLE
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    @hank: that stock and others have become falling knives of late. Names and symbols withheld in the interest of privacy and not damaging my ego any further. I need a trip to DollarTree to pick up some bandaids before they go up to $1.25.
  • SP500 $VIX vs Nasdaq 100 $VXN
    Today started as an up day, but ended as a down day due to a C-19/Omicron case found in CA in a fully vaccinated person who returned from S Africa.
    An odd observation in some recent down days has been that SP500/SPY $VIX has been almost same or higher than Nasdaq 100/QQQ $VXN. This is very unusual for these 2 volatility indicators. Clearly, SP500 is a blend while Nasdaq 100 is large-cap growth heavy in techs. This is an ongoing battle between cyclicals and growth and news of the day favors one or the other.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56537685927
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Speaking of DKNG - I track it and it’s off 6.75% for the day at $32 plus change. Reports are Cathie bought a truck load at $43-$44 a few weeks ago - Whew! Here’s a stock that’s seen close to $75 within the past year. I think it was launched couple years ago as part of a a “SPACK”. Getting spanked today for whatever reason. No idea what the trouble is. But harmed by the market saturation with too many competing plus the steep taxes states are hitting them with.
    Additional Thoughts - The stock has been subject to short selling pressure during past year. And now, with SARK opening, that pressure is probably even greater. Nuts. If Cathie buys a stock, it’s got a target on its back. :) Top institutional holders Vanguard and T. Rowe Price. I’d think safer to own it through a small cap fund.
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    I have managed to restore several of my accounts by
    1) ensuring that "Schwab" is listed as the brokerage name, not "zz-Schwab" or zzz-Schwab" on the account details window ( this is in the recommendations)
    But this still would not allow me to "Activate" the accounts with the "Schwab brokerage" link, but there is another Schwab.com listed in the "add account" drop down menu
    "Schwab Investor-C"
    This seems to work for several of the accounts but not all
    I am very discouraged by this disaster. As you mention, this is the worst snafu from Quicken in the 25 years I have been using it
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Or is it silly on my part to think that this debt will have to ever be paid?
    I’m not following everything there. I have no particular interest in Cathy except I thought the subject of a new innovative fund might be of interest on a forum devoted to investing - especially via funds. DraftKings? Illustratuve of Wood’s investments.
    Re: “the national debt”, it’s not as simple as “paying it all back.” Sovereign countries are different than individuals in that they can print money and back it with something called “full faith and credit.” You and I don’t have that capacity. So as long as the country’s GDP is growing and the country remains strong in other respects (ie defense, infrastructure, research capacity) than there is no need to repay all that debt. I’ll let the economists decide and debate what a reasonable debt level is. But No. I don’t think it all needs to be repaid.
    I’ve been reading national news publications since I was 15. Goes back to Goldwater. And this horse *** from the right about “stealing from our grandchildren” has been around a long time!
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Think we don’t have sufficient patient data to confirm the impact of Omicron on the broader population and demographic. Moderna news from Financial Times said one thing (somewhat negative) and BioNTech provided a more positive news with their vaccine. The comments in Financial Times article are well worthwhile to read.
    https://ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f
    https://ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/biontech-ceo-says-vaccine-likely-to-protect-against-severe-covid-19-from-omicron-1.5687229
    COVID situation has elevated to the top since last Friday. Will we re-visit last spring when many countries underwent lockdown? Personally I don’t think so, with the advancement on prevention (vaccines), treatment (antibodies, antiviral drugs and steroid medication). Restrictive travel has already deployed in Europe, Asia and US and that is good. Testing of air travelers and contact tracing are being used. All these practices will slow down the virus spread while buy times for the medical community and government to response. The coordination between the countries is highly encouraging.
    Learned from last spring, I will stay put and make small adjustments if necessary.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Likely going to take another Schmeissing today, meaning REMIX/BLNDX.
    I'm out. His models obviously did not pick up swift change in trend. I don't have the facts and could be wrong as I do NOT know the details but it appears that the fund mgr had a large downdraft in 2nd half of 2018 in his old Managed Futures fund...a real arse kicking...hope that doesn't happen here. Almost like indexed across all equites and then leverages to commodities and currencies which are very difficult to get right...wrong model, wrong turn, less dough in pocket.
    Any time, drawdown ~8% within a week or so, buh-bye.
    Some think that 4500 on the SPY is the line in the sand for those technical indicator types...
    Me? With Powell talking like he did today, maybe taking the pnch bowl away quicker than many think...of course he could be just jaw boning....inflation kinda out of control...no way this is slowing down anytime soon....talk to folks who do procurement, sourcing etc. They know what is going on. Don't like the smell of any of it.
    My spidey sense, so called experience recalls many times when you get this yo-yo...more like a spring going back and forth and than boing....could be biggly boing to the downside. Very dangerous.
    For certain, I have no clue what is going to happen but I am playing it safe investment wise.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    It must be very challenging to manage fund flows for the ARK ETFs.
    The funds generated eye-popping returns in 2020 which led to large inflows.
    "The Ark family of ETFs shot the lights out in 2020.
    All five of the firm’s mainline funds produced triple-digit returns.
    Investors took notice.
    The firm pulled in $20.5 billion in net flows in 2020, representing 646% organic growth.
    As 2020 came to a close, the firm ranked as the 11th-largest ETF provider."

    Link
    Their flagship fund, ARK Innovation, has dropped precipitously from it's February high.
    Outflows started in April (first time since Oct. 2019) and increased during the third quarter.
    "ARKK's past 10 months are not an uncommon story.
    Fear of missing out following a stellar year for a fund can drive rapid inflows, and when the fund
    is unable to repeat history, investors start to lose interest.
    Investors who lack patience often suffer the most by buying at a high and selling after a decline."

    Link
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    The Short Innovation Fund is quite unusual.
    AFAIK, this is the only fund that shorts an actively managed fund.
    Yes - That’s my understanding. I’ve followed this with interest for several months since they filed the paperwork with the SEC. SARK appears to have opened in mid November.
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    Wood has been loading up on DKNG - an online gaming / gambling company that went public only a year or two ago. Highly speculative. Got above $70 briefly within the past year. She reportedly bought a huge chunk at around $43 - $44 a couple weeks ago. This morning it fell briefly below $35. I owned a small bit once but got out. Already have more excitement than can handle investment wise - though suspect Wood’s call is the right one.