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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • That other type of inflation that I'll never experience at this time point in my life
    @BenWP - Size 265/65R-18 - Japanese off-brand. They ship UPS in 3 days. Yes, I have a local dealer who’s happy to mount & balance them, for a fee of course. These are a mud & snow tire suitable for both winter and summer driving. Have had good luck with Tire Rack over the years.
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    Biotech stocks resemble a landscape filled with craters. The two ETFs that cover the sector, IBB and FBT, are hurting badly, YTD, 1yr or 3yr. FBIOX is down about 15% YTD while broader-based HC funds have not kept up with the stock market as a whole. I owned CELG until it was bought up by BMY which I kept for a while. The stock rose to nearly $70, but it now trades for about $53. At one time it was a M* 5 star pick, but it turned out to be a value trap. I feel lucky to have exited when I did. For a pure growth HC fund, BHCFX has impressed, but it’s volatile.
  • December Commentary is posted …

    Originally I'd hoped to name this site FundWatch.com. A squatter in the Netherlands wanted $25,000 for the URL so, no. (Mercer now owns it.) To the extent we have an active going-forward, it would be good to find a way to signal the fact that we care about pooled investment vehicles (PIVWatch?) and recognize that the wrapper makes a difference in only a few special instances (you can't close an ETF to new investments so in a capacity-constrained strategy, you need an OEF, as an example).
    Cheers and holiday good wishes!
    David
    Interesting observations.
    I looked up fundwatch.com and there is mercerfundwatch.com, a fund advisory for HK and Singapore. This "Mercer" (not related to the "Mercer family" in news in recent years) is a subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan/MMC.
    I think that MFO - Mutual Fund Observer name caught on nicely.
    There have been several instances where creation/redemption processes for ETFs were disrupted and then they traded just like CEFs at premium/discount. Of course, ETFs are not designed with this in mind, but that can happen. And ETNs (terrible sponsor IOUs) are famous for shutting at the worst possible times for their holders.
  • Fighting Inflation Without Getting Carried Away
    Stocks as inflation hedge - Prudent Speculator, Market Watch in Barron's
    ".....nine-plus decades of market history suggest that equities have gained ground, on average, whether inflation is rising or falling.....Yes, stocks have performed better when inflation is moving lower, but they have performed admirably on average, both concurrent with and subsequent to increases (as well as decreases) in the inflation rate over 12-month time spans, with value stocks and dividend payers leading the charge. The effect was not limited to 12-month periods. When we analyzed the numbers for shorter and longer periods, the take-home message that stocks seem to care little about inflation (in the aggregate) was similar.....we have crunched the numbers to see how stocks have performed when the rate is above 6%. Many may be surprised to learn that equities have performed better when inflation has been higher than when it has been lower, with value stocks enjoying sensational returns, on average, over those ensuing 176 periods. To be sure, while supposed market experts might argue otherwise, equities have long been a terrific hedge against inflation. -- John Buckingham and team"
  • Vanguard Trade settlement and transferring cash out of
    I have joined carew338 in abandoning Vanguard for anything other than their funds that are unique are Admiral class or that I have a large capital gain in.
    Why not transfer the non-Vanguard holdings in kind to another brokerage?
    It's cheaper to trade TF funds at Fidelity: $5/purchase using automated investing, $0 to sell vs. $20 to buy or sell at Vanguard.
    Here's Investopedia's comparison of Vanguard and Fidelity. While clearly recognizing the superiority of Fidelity's platform, FWIW they consider Vanguard's platform adequate for its target (buy-and-hold and retirement) investors.
    https://www.investopedia.com/vanguard-vs-fidelity-4587961
    On the other end of the spectrum, looking at option trading, Fidelity and Schwab pay for order flow. Vanguard does not. Schwab receives payment for order flow on equity orders as well.
    There are features that one loses by moving to Vanguard's brokerage platform. On the fund platform, one can (or could, last I checked) convert an exact dollar amount from a traditional IRA to a Roth. On the brokerage platform, one specifies the in-kind conversion by number of shares.
    Checkwriting is affected. From the brokerage agreement:
    immediately upon the transfer of Your Vanguard Funds into Your [Brokerage] Account You agree to cease using the checkwriting drafts (CWRs) issued on Your Vanguard Funds and to destroy any unused checks.
    https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/vbsaac_042016.pdf
    Power of attorney may not transfer over to the brokerage platform. In that case, one would have to set up power of attorney again, including paper forms and signature guarantees. This only affects a relatively small number of Vanguard customers. But I happen to be among them, and would not have known had I not asked. This alone is sufficient to dissuade me from converting.
  • The Mutual Fund That Ate Wall Street -- Based on an Index Few People Know About
    Yep, that happened in 2012 when Vanguard had a fee dispute with MSCI and moved about 2 dozen indexes from MSCI to CRSP and FTSE.
    As for VG Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX/ VITSX/ VTI), it also has a smaller but separate cousin VG Institutional Total Stock Market Index (VITNX, no ETF class) that confusingly has significant annual CG distributions.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/569258/vanguard-to-switch-benchmarks-for-22-index-funds
  • Roth conversion
    I used 2021 B premiums.
    Here is link to 2022 data
    https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2022-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles2022-medicare-part-d-income-related-monthly-adjustment
    2022 basic B is $170/mo First step up at same AGI is now $68/mo
    @msf
    Thanks for the link re QLAC
    While it is old (2015) and uses the RMD date of 70 1/2 and an anticipated return of 8% yearly, it is still probably correct that you have to live a long while past 85 to come out ahead.
    I am not sure MaxiFI would model this for you, but it might. The calculations are not difficult. What you want to know other than how long you will live is the expected return ( or lack thereof) on your IRA assets required to beat the QLAC. I doubt tax rates will go down any.
  • The Mutual Fund That Ate Wall Street -- Based on an Index Few People Know About
    This is a WSJ report which may require a subscription to read.
    "Everyone knows the New York Stock Exchange. And its rival, Nasdaq.
    But there is a mutual fund that invests in stocks based on a relatively unknown market index that has grown so large it might be considered a third stock market unto itself.
    That fund is the $1.3 trillion (yes, trillion, including all share classes) Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) and its exchange-traded-fund shares. The fund, from Vanguard Group, now accounts for 10% of all assets in U.S. stock mutual funds and ETFs in the market, according to Morningstar Inc. No other mutual fund or ETF comes close to it in asset size. The next largest is an $821 billion Vanguard S&P 500 index fund.
    The paradox is that this biggest beast among funds is tied to the most unassuming of stock indexes—the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, developed at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business."
    Journal Report
  • Roth conversion
    Most Medicare Part B participants pay a premium that covers 25% of the actual cost of the coverage. (The government picks up the rest, using general tax revenue.) In 2021, that 25% comes to $148.50/mo, or $1782/year.
    If one's MAGI¹ (AGI from line 7 of form 1040 plus tax-exempt interest from line 2a) is above $88K (single or married filing separately) or $176K (married filing jointly), then one's share of the actual Part B cost increases.
    If one's MAGI is just over this threshold, then instead of paying 25% of the cost of Part B, one will pay 35%. That's a 40% increase (35%/25% = 1.4x). So in 2021, the first level of IRMAA comes to 40% x $148.50 = $59.40/mo, or $712.80/year.
    https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs
    There are also higher brackets, where one pays 50% of the actual part B cost (IRMAA = 100% of Part B premium), 65% of Part B cost (IRMAA = 160% of premium), 80% of part B cost (IRMAA = 220% of premium), or 85% of part B cost (240% of premium). No matter what one's income level, the government is still picking up some of the tab.
    https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0601101031
    In 2022, the first threshold is at $91K ($182 married filing jointly), and IRMAA is $68/mo. All the thresholds for 2021 and 2022 along with the total (part B premium plus IRMAA) amounts are on the Medicare.gov site given above.
    ¹MAGI is calculated using the last income tax return filed. For 2022 IRMAA, that is the income tax form for 2020, filed as recently as just two months ago, including extensions. Your Jan 2022 IRMAA can't be based on 2021 income since you haven't reported it yet.
  • Roth conversion
    The info on brackets I have are ( MFJ vs Single)
    zero IRMAA under $176,000 $88,000
    $59 /mo/person $176,000 to $222,000 $88,000 to $111,000
    $148.50/mo/person $222,000 to $276,000 $111,000 to $138,000
    There is a great $4 book ( Amazon) with all the data you need
    James McGlynn Retirement Planning Tips for Baby Boomers
  • Anybody holding DUST?
    @Derf - The hoops is a reference to Fido requiring you to acknowledge (by clicking an accept icon) that you have read and understand the warning and that you feel experienced enough to proceed with the purchase.
    Next bet? Nothing looks attractive, No major changes except continuing a near month-long 4-5% bet on TAIL (which requires you to acknowledge a warning at Fido). It’s not enough to overcome gains if the market continues upward, but serves as a “brake” in sharply declining markets, limiting losses. Rose .81% yesterday. The effect of holding a small amount is similar to driving forward while riding the brake a bit.
    PS - The other kind of hoops. :) Been on the losing end of a few lately. Taking a breather.
  • That other type of inflation that I'll never experience at this time point in my life
    "The 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer starts at $86,995."
    Just ordered 4 new tires for my old 2005 Chev pickup. $845 at Tire Rack. Shipping included. :)
    (OK - It doesn’t say “Grand” on the side …..)
  • That other type of inflation that I'll never experience at this time point in my life
    "The 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer starts at $86,995."
    I remember when SUVs really were utility vehicles.
    They were often owned by hunters, fishermen, boaters, etc.
    These SUVs were rugged, functional vehicles with very few amenities.
    Since that time, many SUVs were upscaled and their prices have escalated dramatically.
    Auto makers ramped up marketing and production of SUVs to capitalize on this segment's
    high profit margins.
  • Roth conversion
    I feel that longevity insurance is one of the few useful products that the financial industry has created in the past several years. That said, if it's not a product that you are interested in independent of tax considerations, then buying a QLAC is a poor way to reduce RMDs.
    Kitces, Why A QLAC In An IRA Is A Terrible Way To Defer The Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Obligation
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/why-a-qlac-in-an-ira-is-a-terrible-way-to-defer-the-required-minimum-distribution-rmd-obligation/
    Getting back to timing of conversions ... Though recharacterizations (undo's) of conversions are no longer allowed, there are a couple of other tactics that provide some or much of the same effect.
    One is to use a recharacterization that is still permitted. A contribution as opposed to a conversion can still be recharacterized. So if you contributed $6000 to a Roth IRA in 2021 but in doing your taxes you discover that you'd have been better off taking the deduction, you can recharacterize the $6K as a contribution to a traditional IRA. (You can also do the opposite: contribute to a T-IRA and then recharacterize it to a Roth.)
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-iras#Recharacterization of IRA Contributions
    Another it to take advantage of the 60 day rollover rule (sometimes limited to one per year). One could withdraw money from a T-IRA near the end of the year, and then early the next year when the tax situation is clearer (and within 60 days of the withdrawal) either put the money back into the T-IRA (60 day rollover), put the money into a Roth (indirect rollover conversion), or split the money between a T-IRA and a Roth.
    If any money goes back into a T-IRA, you can't do this again for another 365 calendar days. The restriction is according to days, not fiscal years.
  • Fighting Inflation Without Getting Carried Away
    If I set aside comparative performance of my bonds--- all in funds--- and look at raw dollar figures, the monthlies will be a big help in the new year. We incurred a big (for us) one-time expense, buying furniture. Zero interest for 12 months. I've resisted taking the divs. in order to keep them growing. But it's time. Basically, if we control our spending, we are at least mitigating the inflation "out there" in the stores. And it's nice to have connections, too: for $25, we can get an entire, HUGE, Ahi for cooking, for poke ("po-kay") and sashimi. My wife knows how to make the best of a fish with a knife!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowfin_tuna
  • Roth conversion
    @ Hank
    Does it matters what you convert, if you can always buy or sell anything in either account tax free?
    Once you have the capital in a Roth, I agree it should be probably devoted to more risky, long term investments.
    Converting before you are on Medicare and after are two different calculations.
    It is important to remember that the IRMAA surcharges go from zero dollars ( B Medicare Premium $1776 /year in 2021) to $700 for ONE DOLLAR of income ( AGI before the standard deduction) above $176,000 for a couple and $111,000 single. A couple would therefore pay $1400 extra.
    IRMAA is based on two years before 1040, so 2022 will look at 2020 AGI. Once you file 2021 taxes in 2022 you can ask for redo, if your 2021 income is lower. It takes a month or so, so you will end up paying more for a few months.
    One strategy I am considering is to do a large conversion, all in one year, before I take SS at 70. Then the impact of the conversion on the IRMAA will be limited to one year.
    Other things to consider. IRS lets you put up to $135,000 in a QLAC which will reduce you RMD proportionally.
    Lawrence Kotlikoff from BU has a great article in Barrons
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-retirement-planning-is-wrong-laurence-kotlikoff-51631207476
    He also runs a web site with a neat financial planning program for $100, Maxifi. It may be overkill for a lot of folks, but it will allow you to run all sorts of projections and scenarios about Roth conversions pretty easily
  • Roth conversion
    The question can be split into two parts:
    1. Best time during a given year
    2. Best year
    1. In theory, the best time within a year to convert is when your T-IRA portfolio is at its nadir. Which is great if you can see into the future.
    Pragmatically, waiting until there's a market correction (10% dip or more) can leave you converting at a higher value than converting now. If the market rises 15% while you're waiting and then drops 10% (to 103.5% of your starting value), what's the point? Or if you're planning on converting a bit each year, you can easily wind up stuck at the end of the year with a higher market still waiting for that correction.
    If you're trying to keep MAGI under a certain "cliff" threshold (e.g. for ACA subsidies or to avoid IRMAA) then you should likely be conservative and top off your conversion near year end once you have a better handle on MAGI YTD. If your concern is about edging into another tax bracket, it's not a big deal if you wind up a few dollars over or under, so don't wait until year end for that reason.
    2. If you're converting and paying taxes with non-IRA money, sooner can be better than later even if your expected tax rates in the future will be a little higher. That's because you're effectively adding money to your IRA by prepaying your taxes. (A dollar in a Roth is worth more than a dollar in a T-IRA.)
    OTOH, many states give tax breaks for retirement income (including Roth conversions) once one reaches a certain age. So it can be advantageous to wait until then. You might convert between the time you reach that age and the time you retire and actually start drawing money from your T-IRA and/or pension (and possibly using up that tax break).
    Several states give some sort of help on Medicare Part D prescriptions, where your income needs to be low enough to qualify. Doing Roth conversions earlier (even at somewhat higher tax rates) may help qualify for these or other income-related programs.
    The largest such program is EPIC in NYS. Its income cutoff is decidedly middle class: $75K single, $100K married.
    The rule of thumb short answer is the sooner the better (both within year and across years); just don't do too much in a single year and keep various income thresholds in mind. And if you're thinking of making charitable contributions, keep some money in the T-IRA so you have it available for QCDs.
  • Roth conversion
    The best time to convert to a Roth is when income is low, taxes are anticipated to be higher in the future, and when the value of the asset is low such as a market correction.
    I covered a Roth Conversion in:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454723-best-tax-efficient-funds
  • That other type of inflation that I'll never experience at this time point in my life
    Note for below video: 2:42 minutes in length, with the first 45 seconds being a Powell lead in......then the fun info starts just near the 50 seconds mark.

    That other kind of inflation, eh?

    The prior wage inflation video will allow a few to buy one of these, although the typical sports fan will not likely be shopping just yet. A wee bit outside of a common sense budget, yes? Scroll down the text a tiny bit for the MSRP price. I did find one locally that had an employee discount of$9K.
    Hey...........Remain Curious,
    Catch
  • Brown Advisory Sustainable International Leaders Fund in registration
    Is there a track record of the fund manager, Priyanka Agnihotri?
    Priyanka Agnihotri has served as portfolio manager of the Fund since its inception in 2022. Ms. Agnihotri is the portfolio manager for the International Leaders strategy within the Global Equity team. Ms. Agnihotri joined Brown Advisory as a financials equity research analyst in June 2015 having formerly worked for Bernstein Research on the sell-side covering European financials. Prior to this, she began her career in 2009 as a buy-side analyst for Phoenix Asset Management Partners focusing on U.K. equities. Ms. Agnihotri earned her MBA in 2009 from Columbia Business School where she was a member of the Value Investing Program.