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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best brokerage for Bonds and CDs
    I use Schwab Brokerage exclusively and they offer a wide array of CDs, at very good rates. You do need to be careful about the "Call" feature, as it is easy to overlook that possibility of getting a callable CD. I bought a Schwab CD in May of this year, and it got called in September. Fortunately, I was happy this occurred as it was paying 2.1%, and after getting back $200k that I originally invested, I was able to reinvest it in new CDs paying 4% and 4.25%. I can't speak to Fidelity or Vanguard, but I suspect they have similar offerings. I am looking forward to several other short term CDs maturing in the next few months, and I anticipate reinvesting it a short term ladder when that occurs. I have not ruled out shifting some CD money to bond oefs in the future, but I am not expecting the bond oef market returning to total return strength in the near future. Just as side note, I am able to hold almost all on my cash in money market funds at Schwab that pays about 3%. for liquidity purposes. I am retired, 74 years of age, and I am loving the higher CD rates for investments.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    I am loving the higher CD rates--just bought a 6 month CD at 4% and a 9 month CD at 4.25%. I have several other CDs maturing at the end of this calendar year and in the early part of 2023. Owning CDs have allowed me to have a positive Total Return YTD. I am retired, in mid 70s, and I focus on shorter term CDs, which pay a monthly yield, and the predictable yield allows me alot of opportunities for what I want to do with the investments. As far as what I expect in the future, I fully expect another .75% rate increase in November, and possibly another .75% rate increase in December. For 2023, I still expect rate increases, but smaller and less frequently. I fully expect to get 1 year and longer CDs, with interest payments at 5% or more by the end of this calendar year, and I think they will go up closer to 6% in 2023. Since my retirement total return objectives have been 4 to 6% for several years, I find CDs as a no risk opportunity to achieve my retirement performance goals, with minimal stress and risk.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Just pick up some 2yr CD with Morgan Stanley yielding 4.7%. CDs will likely get over 5% after Nov and Dec rate hike. If CPI stays above the historical average of 3.5%, stock and bond return will struggle, 2-3% total?
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    It's funny but this is the proverbial "blood-in-the-streets" moment discussed in another thread. But I bet few takers. The ETF ECNS for instance currently has a p-e ratio of 5 and a price-book ratio of 0.6. Those are Ben Graham levels of cheapness for over a 200 stock portfolio. Need steel cajones to invest in it though.
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake? #2
    Ty
    Good discussion
    Prog good time to buy becauses price got a little cheaper, if you are wrong probably need hold 3_5 yrs. Not sure if price get lowered than these levels
  • Lights end of tunnel?
    Sp500 retrace back near 3800s AH ..cant stay away from this level
    Corp bonds /junks, small caps mid caps maybe holding the lines...
    CPI data may break or make market early tomorrow
  • Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064222005391/inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm
    497 1 inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm 497
    Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF
    (NYSE Arca: FEVR)
    (a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
    Supplement dated October 27, 2022 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) dated March 30, 2022 and Summary Prospectuses dated May 5, 2022, as supplemented
    The Board of Trustees of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) authorized an orderly liquidation of the Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF (the “Fund”), a series of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV. The Board determined on October 25, 2022 that closing and liquidating the Fund was in the best interests of the Fund and the Fund’s shareholders.
    The last day of trading of Fund shares on NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “NYSE”) will be November 18, 2022 (“Closing Date”), which will also be the last day the Fund will accept creation units from authorized participants. Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares for a pro rata portion of the Fund’s portfolio on hand through the Closing Date.
    The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on November 28, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    From the Closing Date (November 18, 2022), through the Liquidation Date (November 28, 2022), shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, the Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index.
    Shareholders remaining on November 28, 2022 will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of that date, which will include any capital gains and dividends as of such date. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of Fund shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call 1-877-658-9473
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information and should be read in conjunction with those documents. The Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Thanks for the update. CDs are now yielding a tad higher than treasuries with the same duration. 4.7% for 2 year CD is very good. I expect after Dec’s rate hike, it will go over 5% for 2 year CDs. You can buy more then.
    BY the way, some said that inflation may be sticky but I am not sure what it means for 2023.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/22
    There were notable declines in the stock and hybrid funds. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.05 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $290.5 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.
    OEFs: Stocks 50.28%, Hybrids 6.77%, Bonds 21.39%, M-Mkt 21.57%
    ETFs: Stocks 79.38%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 20.08%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 56.61%, Hybrids 5.41%, Bonds 21.10%, M-Mkt 16.88%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=816
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    bought 2 year CD at Fido yesterday 4.7 % from Goldman Sachs. I am staying away from Ally bank, Discover and unknown banks
    I had a couple of CDs go bust in the 1980s. Eventually got my money back but it takes a while
    extending maturities out to 5 years would lock in rates, but if you hope to sell above par, probably better to buy bonds, I would think.
    If interest rates drop implies inflation is under control. The question is will it require a recession and negative growth to get there?
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake? #2
    Who know what is leading this week’s short rally. Many buy the dips have not panned out so well this year. The trend of missed earnings, lower revenues, and cost cutting does not bode well going forward for the market. For now, I am focusing being more defensively and get through this rate hike cycle.
    This morning the GDP report came out. First, it looks encouraging until further examination revealed the situation is more complicated than it appeared.
    https://npr.org/2022/10/27/1131605558/gdp-economy-growth-inflation-employment-spending-housing-interest-rates
  • IOXIX Blowup From IOs
    Bond IOs can work like magic, but then can blow up suddenly and unexpectedly. See the recent blowup of IOXIX (it WAS a strong performer in 2022 until...). Twitter LINK
    image
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    What happens at month 6? Are there not requirements to hold 1 year and 5y for no early-withdrawal fee?
    12-mo/5-yr restrictions remain. At the 6 mo from the purchase date, only the rate will adjust to then current rate.
    There are media reports that the shaky Treasury Direct site has been ON/OFF due to very heavy last minute demand for I-Bonds before the rate flips lower. TD has already put a FAQs that says that the last day to get the current 9.62% rate is 10/28/22 (not 10/31/22 as one might have expected) with the condition that order confirmation from TD must be received by that date (i.e. order early even on that day). The word in the media is that the last date may practically be Oct 26-27 due to shaky TD site and the lack of staff and resources at TD. A sad state of affairs at TD/Treasury, IMO.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/26/22
    For the week ending on 10/26/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (45.7%; extremely high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (26.6%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (27.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.1% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; dollar; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (35+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up strongly, bonds up, oil up sharply, gold up, dollar down sharply (but still high; key now). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=815
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    What happens at month 6? Are there not requirements to hold 1 year and 5y for no early-withdrawal fee?
  • Morningstar at it again
    Have you noticed that Morningstar lists the PrimeCap Vanguard funds status as "open," while Morningstar Investor lists them as "closed" ?

    Poor editing.
    3rd line in M* Analyst - Summary, "...The fund, subadvised by Primecap and closed to all investors,..."

    Neither status "open" or "closed" is entirely accurate.
    Supplement to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus
    "Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, investing up to $25,000 per Fund account per year as described in this supplement, in individual, joint, and/or personal trust registrations."
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Clements says he has over-rebalanced stocks so that he now has 80% of investments in stocks. The other 20% is in short term bonds - which he considers a cash-like bucket - money he will spend in the next 5 years.
  • Lights end of tunnel?
    https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/10/the-100-accurate-bull-market-indicator-that-flashed-last-week/
    We are starting buy little more now,
    Waiting couple wks months for confirmation /see if a new baby bull is indeed born.
    Watching spy 3880 .. If passes maybe more up swings. As of closure today 49% of sp500 stocks are above 50days MA.... Market breadth may have more momentums now
    Of course if Amazon and apple ER unfavorable we may drop few percent....
    Uncle Powell may knock it out of park again next week w hawkish tones and ? 0.75 + another??0.75 after new yr if market rebound stronger and CPI still bad 7%s
  • Best brokerage for Bonds and CDs
    I used Schwab buy my own bonds and mama acct we use fidelity
    Fidelity and Schwab bonds desk are extremely safe Imho . most corp bonds bbb- or higher so chance bankruptcy maybe nearb~5 -10% annually if choose lower grades
    Got mama Ford bond gm bond and added fidelity 2015 retired TDfund today
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake?
    @Catch22
    Yes sir.. Was trying to say that if you don't better after few days of paxlovid treatments and get worse probably need to get back with your provider and get the antibody infusion treatments (Fda guidelines for not favor MAB infafter 9 days) or get admited due to compromised respiratory status. I think majority of patients do get better if vaccinated and most of the time we see patients get discharge home with supportive care unlike in mid 2020
    ...
    The data for paxlovid is very good but against old variants ( ~85% kill rate) , think the pharmacist staff told me not enough data for the new one and could be only 50s% effective.... It's a very large anti hiv pill lots side effects liver kidney failure and many critical drug interactions... You have to stop hormones (oral contraceptives) psyche meds or heart ANTIARRYTH meds / coumadin, cholesterol meds, stomach meds, and antifungal, etc...medications for 5 7 days... Lots stomach upsets
    I am not favor with imervecrin nor HCQ... Not much fda approval although India used it in 2020 and they did ok