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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    I was taking RMD on Jan 2 or 3. But in 2020, the pandemic year, the RMDs were waived - first for those who took it after February or March, and finally for all around mid-2020. So, I was kicking myself for 5-6 months in 2020 for taking RMDs too early. Now I take them in mid/late-year.
  • Another fox in the hen house!
    Good that the regulators caught up with Capital One/COF. I posted about this problem a while ago.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159297/#Comment_159297
    Barron's doesn't think that it would hurt COF & DFS merger.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/capital-one-stock-cfpb-lawsuit-1041890d
  • A global bond selloff sez CNBC headline
    @WABAC
    On the Osterweis (OSTIX) quarterly webinar today, they mentioned staying short, 1.5 years because they’re not being sufficiently rewarded for taking on additional duration risk.
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    @stillers,
    Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
    With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
    Congratulations.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks. @bee
    Do have GEV shareholders in the forum? I sold some shares $50 below the current price thinking it is way overpriced. If any one has an insight into its valuation, please share.
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    I'm playing this game by bundling cap gains into some years and ordinary income into others.
    A few techniques to bundle ordinary income
    - Do Roth conversions in "ordinary income years".
    - Buy short term (1 year or less) CDs/T-bills in "cap gains years" that mature in "ordinary income years"
    - Invest in muni (MM, bond) funds in "cap gains years", and taxable (Treasury, corporate) funds in "ordinary income years"
    A couple of techniques to bundle cap gains
    - Accelerate recognition of gains (sell and repurchase if desired) in "cap gains years"
    - Sell "around" annual distributions - avoid distributions of ordinary income (if any) and repurchase after record date (recognizes additional cap gains)
    Depending on how much space you have in your 0% cap gains bracket, creating more cap gains may or may not work out for you. In any case, the added cap gains are state-taxable, so that should be kept in mind as well.
    On the flip side, Roth conversions may be partially or fully state tax-exempt, depending on the state. That's motivation to convert some money even if it eats into the 0% cap gains bracket.
    Note that the numbers presented in the graph are incorrect.
    Cap gains: $47,025 (top of 0% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,625, not $63,475
    Ordinary inc: $47,150 (top of 12% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,750, not $63,475
    Note also that the cap gains bracket does not line up exactly with the ordinary income bracket (as given by the IRS). Close, but different.
    It looks like the author may have been adding in the 2023 extra deduction ($1,850) for being over age 65 (or blind). That would make the cap gains figure come out to $63,475.
    Thanks @msf, I am still digesting what you wrote. Wondering if RMDs could be worked into this "Capital Gains Year" strategy where by:
    RMDs are taking as early as possible to potentially provide a LT capital gain (from the RMD WD date + 1 year) AKA "Capital Gains Years". Conversely, In years where these RMDs suffered a loss, one would sell (by Dec 31st of that year) to harvest a tax loss which would help offset future gains in "Capital Gains Years".
  • “Stocks Cap Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century” (Excerpt from WSJ)
    Giruox’s PRWCX has a large long term capital gain distribution in 2024; much more than recent years. In light of what he stated in Barron’s round table discussion, the market is very expensive. Not just the Mag 7, but the rest of S&P 500 are above the historical PE, he has a net seller.
    Similarly, Buffet sold much of Apple stock and other in mid 2024. Questions is why at the particular timeframe?
  • A global bond selloff sez CNBC headline
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html

    A sell-off in global bond markets is accelerating, fueling concerns over government finances and raising the specter of higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses around the world.
    Gloomy details at the link.
    Remember those sunny days after the first rate cut?
    Anybody see anything out there that hints at reasons for rates to fall?
    How much duration are you willing to take on outside of what asset-allocation managers might be taking on for you? Most of the bond funds I own don't even show a duration on the M* Portfolio Manager.
  • “Stocks Cap Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century” (Excerpt from WSJ)
    Current selling makes sense... I think a lot of the movement is just rebalancing. Account's are up 30-50% the last 2 years (SPY up about ~46%) so they need to take some off the table to get back to target asset allocation. That along with all the chatter about overvalued, high PE's. tariffs etc... makes everyone a little caution. Add to that "is inflation going back up?????" re: yields.... is enough to keep our heads spinning.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    "Long-term return expectations drop across major asset classes, and some firms
    are now forecasting higher returns for bonds than US stocks over the next decade."

    https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2025-edition
    As always, take these prognostications with a block of salt...
  • “Stocks Cap Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century” (Excerpt from WSJ)
    Josh Brown on CNBC around noon today, theorized that the weakness in techs is due to the very rich selling now (or instructing their institution to sell), as opposed to before year end, because they wanted to avoid a big tax bill for 2024. He said the two-year rally had afforded no opportunities for tax-loss selling, thus they are selling now. I suppose one could book a gain early in 2025, planning to take advantage of a bad market this year by taking a tax loss. I don't travel in those circles, so I know very little of this strategy.
  • Alert for Vanguard investors who have a Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up for 2025
    If you have a Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up at VG, it may be wish to check that it is still there.
    I have had an Automatic RMD Withdrawal set up at VG for many years. Everything has always worked fine.
    This year, I received a letter from VG dated 1/3/25. It was the RMD withdrawal confirmation summary for 2025, and everything was correct. I was set up for 2025.
    Then today, I received another letter from VG dated 1/8/25, with another RMD confirmation summary for 2025. This one showed "2025 Service Level -- Calculation Only" and "Distribution Option -- None". My Scheduled Automatic RMD Distribution had been removed.
    I telephoned VG and spoke with a lady who was very helpful. She restored my scheduled RMD and everything is fine again. I just want to alert others that could have happened to them and to check their confirmation.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    ”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
    Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
    - “When I retired 13 years ago,”
    I retired 25 years ago
    - ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
    Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
    - “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.
    Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
    - ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
    Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.
    Thanks for your information Hank! Your comparisons are actually to those of "bee", which I quoted in my post to you above, but that is fine since this thread actually should link back to the OPs.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    @msf
    "Color me skeptical. Money managers like Vanguard and Fidelity tried to do this and failed."
    No doubt. But your Barron's article suggests why my portfolio is perhaps different than that of those 2 firms..." One hurdle: Managed payout funds have long had trouble hitting their income targets without dipping into capital—simply giving investors part of their money back."
    You see, I'm not smart enough to engineer a dedicated income stream, so I don't try. So for my income sleeve I buy things which already generate a distribution. When bought at opportune pricing and from solid companies or firms which have a history of maintaining/growing their distributions, the income takes care of itself.
    And it's no wonder the managed payout funds closed up...in 2020, during the pandemic. But 2020 was a perfect time to buy stocks/funds for an income portfolio. JP Morgan, Prudential, AbbVie all selling at fire sale pricing with big dividends. I even bought Broadcom for <$30 yielding ~5%.
    After 2 straight years of 20%+ growth in the S&P, this coiled spring is going to unwind sometime in the next year or two, and things will go on sale once again.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    ”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
    Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
    - “When I retired 13 years ago,”
    I retired 25 years ago
    - ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
    Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
    - “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.
    Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
    - ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
    Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    An annuity-like distribution is certainly possible. I'm using a combination of funds such as SCHD, DIVO, NEAR, JPIE and a handful of dividend paying stocks and CEFs ...
    Color me skeptical. Money managers like Vanguard and Fidelity tried to do this and failed.
    Payout funds got their start during the 2007-2008 financial crisis when Vanguard and Fidelity both launched the products. The idea was appealing: Convert a retirement savings pool into a reliable income stream and offer investors peace of mind that they’d get a monthly paycheck, regardless of the market’s ups and downs.
    ...
    Vanguard initially had three payout funds but merged them into one fund in January 2014. Fidelity developed a series of Income Replacement funds, paired with an optional monthly payout feature, but Fidelity rebranded the funds in 2017 as “Managed Retirement Income” with more of a high-income focus rather than managed payouts.
    One hurdle: Managed payout funds have long had trouble hitting their income targets without dipping into capital—simply giving investors part of their money back. Annuities work similarly, though they have an insurance component that can keep the income flowing if the portfolio runs out of money.
    Barron's, Vanguard Throws in the Towel on Its Managed Payout Fund, Feb 28, 2020
    The insurance component is what is missing in DIY (or professionally managed) alternatives. In order to guarantee (self insure) that you won't run out of money in your lifetime, you have to overfund. That may be okay if you're planning on leaving a legacy and are willing to dip heavily into that legacy if things don't work out. But it reduces the income stream that you could otherwise have.
    A similar point about underspending is made in the originally cited paper:
    [U]sing a relatively simple model we estimate consumption could increase by approximately 80% for retirees if assets were converted to lifetime income streams, where the improvement rates are significantly higher for joint households
    What annuities do is pool risk. Some people die early, others later. Instead of each individual self insuring (collectively overinsuring), individuals pool their risk through an insurance company. This provides larger income streams safely.
    The risk is in outliving your money. A traditional immediate annuity is not the only way to protect against this tail risk. A longevity annuity (a form of immediate annuity where payouts are deferred) will also do the job.
    T. Rowe Price recognized this and recently came out with a product for employer-sponsored plans (401(k)s, etc.). Its Managed Lifetime Income product provides a managed payout investment for 15 years followed by a QLAC (qualified lifetime annuity contract).
    I don't see any reason why one cannot do this oneself, self-managing a portfolio (as @PRESSmUP described) and adding a longevity annuity (either QLAC or nonqualified).
    Alternatively, one can annuitize a variable annuity.
    Variable payout annuities provide protection against longevity risk and allow for some participation in the higher (but more volatile) returns of corporate equities and other real assets. They also avoid the annuitization risk because their benefit payments vary with investment performance and are not fully determined by the prevailing conditions at the time of retirement. But VPAs are exposed to investment and inflation risks ...
    The Mechanics and Regulation of Variable Payout Annuities (50 pages. TL;DR)
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    Regarding Reverse Mortgages -
    Wouldn’t it be smarter to do a traditional refinance of your existing home for whatever you can pull out? Then invest the money and draw it down as you need it? The bank or other institution would of course hold a lien against the property. I’ll add that at 7% (+-) interest rates this would be a last resort. However, it sounds better than a reverse mortgage. Guess I don’t understand RMs very well.
    Oops - I should have read @msf’s above link first:
    ”A reverse mortgage loan, like a traditional mortgage, allows homeowners to borrow money using their home as security for the loan. Also like a traditional mortgage, when you take out a reverse mortgage loan, the title to your home remains in your name. However, unlike a traditional mortgage, with a reverse mortgage loan, borrowers don’t make monthly mortgage payments. The loan is repaid when the borrower no longer lives in the home.”
    Psychologically, I’d find that difficult to adjust to. It defies everything I’ve been taught about sound financial management - an open-ended lien. Alas, the concept does have some logic behind it.
    @bee - I think @PRESSmUP’s above response / suggestion is spot-on. If you can cope with an occasional down year or two it should be possible to construct a portfolio that at least keeps pace with inflation and allows relatively small annual drawdowns. Let’s assume that pulling out 5% (maybe a bit more) a year isn’t going to kill the goose even if the portfolio sustains 2 or 3 back-to-back negative years, His suggested investments are excellent. Obviously, the more additional risk you can afford comfortably to take the better you’ll do over longer (3-5 year) periods.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Great chart at the end. It fits with the TR equation:
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E.
    So, if the starting P/E is high, the 3rd term will likely have a negative contribution.
    image
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    "Exactly 25 years ago today, I published the first memo that brought a response from readers (after having written for almost ten years without receiving any). The memo was called bubble.com, and the subject was the irrational behavior I thought was taking place with respect to tech, internet, and e-commerce stocks."
    Is that ringing any bells?
    Link