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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • News report from BBG. Canada's trade strategy
    In response to the Orange Assholiness. Carney wants to double trade with non-U.S. partners within a decade. The ASEAN summit gives an opportunity to deal with the whole Bloc.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-26/carney-gives-muted-response-to-trump-s-pledge-to-hike-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas
    Good. That aligns w/my macro views on the post-Orange global markets future....
    rforno in Other Investing
  • News report from BBG. Canada's trade strategy
    13th Asean - United States Summit, starring "Rocky"
    https://x.com/i/status/1982336390923735390
    ZERO class. Gawd. Along the same lines, I recall the song he and Melania danced to at his first-term Inauguration balls: Sinatra: "I did it my way." Putz.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive

    “After I posted in the inflation & other thread, the post seemed to disappear completely. So, I re-wrote and reposted. Then the original post appeared (5 minutes later) and so I deleted the first. Currently @Old_Joe’s excellent thread on prices shows me as the “last” post, while Anna has a post that follows mine. So, Anna should appear as “last”.”
    Yea, something weird about what I am seeing. One post I made this morning was persistently on bottom so that it looked from the main page that no one had posted after me. When I looked, new posts were preceding my older post. Don't know why.
    Anna Anna in Technical Questions
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    Here’s a cut & paste from the Technical thread I started an hour ago. Really weird. Has some “far right” org. hacked us?
    “After I posted in the inflation & other thread, the post seemed to disappear completely. So, I re-wrote and reposted. Then the original post appeared (5 minutes later) and so I deleted the first. Currently @Old_Joe’s excellent thread on prices shows me as the “last” post, while Anna has a post that follows mine. So, Anna should appear as “last”.”
    Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get us!
    hank in Technical Questions
  • News report from BBG. Canada's trade strategy
    13th Asean - United States Summit, starring "Rocky"
    https://x.com/i/status/1982336390923735390
    RisklessInSeattle in Other Investing
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just updated all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 24 October 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through September and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.
    SPY now up 16.6% through Friday. QQQ 21%. Europe 31%. AGG 7.4%.
    Charles Charles in MFO Premium
  • Anybody else having issues with board’s operating system / software? (Sunday 10/26)
    After I posted in the inflation & other thread, the post seemed to disappear completely. So, I re-wrote and reposted. Then the original post appeared (5 minutes later) and so I deleted the first. Currently @Old_Joe’s excellent thread on prices shows me as the “last” post, while Anna has a post that follows mine. So, Anna should appear as “last”.
    hank in Technical Questions
  • News report from BBG. Canada's trade strategy
    In response to the Orange Assholiness. Carney wants to double trade with non-U.S. partners within a decade. The ASEAN summit gives an opportunity to deal with the whole Bloc.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-26/carney-gives-muted-response-to-trump-s-pledge-to-hike-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S
    I'm going off on a tangent here, but private fee for service (PFFS) plans, as this Humana H8145-069 plan is, do not give you access to all (Medicare) doctors in the US. PFFS sounds like PPO only better (same rates in and out of network), but there's a diffence.
    With A PFFS plan, an out-of-network Medicare doctor must agree to be bound by the network terms of the plan or the insurer will not pay. Some Medicare doctors are "non-participating", meaning that they charge up to 15% more than the Medicare rates. (This is what Medicare calls an "excess charge", and the only Medigap plans that cover this are Plans F and G.) A non-participating provider who declines to waive this excess charge for you won't be covered.
    The out-of-network doctor must bill the plan for services they provide to get paid. Some doctors may not do this. I know one doctor who is fed up with dealing with insurers. Well, I know lots of doctors who feel that way, but this doctor refuses to bill any third party payer (insurer) other than Medicare. So you would not be covered in your PFFS if you went to this provider.
    In contrast, by law a PPO must pay a Medicare doctor the full amount they are allowed to bill, even if they are non-participating (see Q2, p. 36 here). And if the doctor refuses to bill the insurer, no problem. You pay up front and the insurer is required to reimburse you (less any required shared costs, i.e. copay and/or coinsurance). With a PPO you are covered for services by any Medicare doctor in the US. Though at a higher cost (e.g. copays) than with a PFFS. Just as Medicare Supplement Plans F & G cost more than lesser coverage from other plans.
    Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
    Sort of. The amount that you're paying for your plan, all in, is increasing from $185 ($185 Part B + $0 H8145 plan) to $233.50 ($206.50 Part B + $27 H8145). That's a 26% increase, still quite large but not incalculable (I just calculated it :-))
    It's fair to consider Part B premiums as part of the insurance cost. First, because one's actually paying that. Second, because some plans like H5216-345 reduce the amount you pay for Part B. This is a $0 premium plan (both 2025 and 2026). It reduced the Part B premiums from $80 ($185 - $105 credit) in 2025 to $76.50 ($206.50 - $130) in 2026. That's a 4.4% reduction.
    The extra $27 premium is for the drug portion of the PFFS plan (see Medicare.gov).
    That drug plan increase seems to be more the exception than the rule:
    According to CMS, Medicare Advantage drug plan premiums for 2026 are holding steady at considerably lower levels than stand-alone drug plans, on average, with many plans charging zero premium for drug coverage in 2026, as in previous years.
    https://www.kff.org/medicare/medicare-part-d-premiums-are-decreasing-for-many-stand-alone-drug-plans-in-a-number-of-states-in-2026/
    And stand-alone prices are dropping this year:
    A comprehensive KFF analysis will follow in the future, but it appears that substantial premium increases for PDPs across the board didn’t materialize, even as the Trump administration scaled back the level of support for additional PDP premium subsidies through the temporary Part D premium stabilization demonstration established by the Biden administration in 2024. ...
    In fact, for all but one of the 10 PDPs that were offered nationwide in 2025 and that will continue to be offered on a national or near-national basis in 2026, Medicare Part D enrollees in a number of states will see lower monthly premiums in 2026 than in 2025. This is consistent with CMS’s projection that the average monthly PDP premium will decrease by a few dollars in 2026.
    msf in Other Investing
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    Sunday, 5AM Pacific, pretty bad so far this morning.
    Sunday, 5:30AM Pacific, it got all better over the past few minutes...??
    Anna Anna in Technical Questions
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
    Then there are the lumber prices you were quoting a few years ago. In May 2018 (7½ years ago), lumber was at $600. It's now at ... $600. And forget about Covid, when everyone was sheltering in place and renovating. Prices topped out above $1600.
    I sound like a broken record here, but people tend to notice bad financial data (higher prices, losses in the market) more than the notice good financial data, like rising markets. That's why we have metrics like Sortino ratio and ulcer index. And why understanding behavioral finance is important to be aware of when investing.

    Well, I did say “feels like.”
    The linked chart is interactive, allowing you to zoom in on the price level in 2018 (window #1 / $400) and in 2025 (window #2 / $700+). Sure looks to me like about a 10% annual increase in construction materials over that 7 year time frame.
    Producer Price Index by Industry: Building Material and Supplies Dealers
    Agree lumber prices were elevated during covid for many reasons (mostly consumers deferring travel and entertainment and investing in their homes). A wild ride.
    What I suspect is that the CPI hides a lot of the inflation in basic goods by factoring in “higher quality” for things like TVs, computers, automobiles, etc. Since you’re getting “more bang for the buck” with those high tech items it brings down the CPI. Old joke: “Have you ever tried munching on a computer chip?”
    hank in Other Investing
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    24 October, '25:
    Kathy Jones is not convinced it's a good idea to be cutting rates while inflation is still well above the 2% target. I concur.
    -Credit concerns: esp. private credit. Public credit: Is HY spread starting to widen? Meghan Robson, BNP Paribas. And Michael Best, with Barings. They both still like HY.

    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    I posted two replies about 9:50 am, EST. The 'time stamp' for the messages read '6:11 AM.' And this post did not move to the top of this list for this subject. Things are still clunky.
    catch22 catch22 in Technical Questions
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    10/26/25 Appears to be running smoothly here. 8:40 AM CST
    Derf in Technical Questions
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    11:30 ish p.m. in the East, 25 Oct. '25.
    This eventually appeared on my screen:
    Contact your hosting provider; check for long-running processes or an overloaded web server.
    Use status polling of large HTTP processes to avoid this error.
    Run the long-running scripts on a grey-clouded subdomain.
    Enterprise customers can increase the timeout setting globally or for specific requests using Cache Rules.
    Crash Crash in Technical Questions
  • Galloway/Housel video. About a year old?
    “Did you guys listen to it?”
    Yes, I listened to the first 50% of the video - about 20 minutes worth. Somewhat familiar with Housel having purchased and listened to one of his audio books a year ago. And I caught a recent interview Meb Faber did with him. Won’t deny he has his followers. It’s easy to say: “Buy an index fund, shut your eyes and wait 40 or 50 years for your payout.” Book closed. No need to think any further. How realistic is that? Our “Buying / Selling” thread would grind to a halt!
    To an extent Housel resembles John Templeton in voicing an eternal optimism that the world is getting better and better and mankind will enjoy greater and greater riches as technology advances. Sir John was way more convincing (and sincere) I think. But even Sir John wouldn’t have spoken about a 50-year time horizon from investment to pay-out.
    I don’t agree with @Old_Joe that those glazed over eyes are drug induced! To me it’s the look of money. He’s thinking how much dough his books are bringing in.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Galloway/Housel video. About a year old?
    Housel says he’s betting to come out ahead 50 years from now on today’s investments. Must be nice.
    It sounds pretty recent @Crash. He talks a good line. And his books sell. Not my cup of tea. But many find him inspirational. :)
    Some bio on Housel
    He’s 41. So with that 50 year time horizon on payout from what he invests in today he should be able to buy himself a pretty shazzy new auto when he’s 91.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Delayed CPI
    Companies have been absorbing most of the higher costs from tariffs in the hope that they are only temporary.
    Companies had passed along about 37 percent of new tariffs to consumers, forced 9 percent onto their suppliers and absorbed 51 percent through August, according to Goldman Sachs.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/business/economy/companies-have-shielded-buyers-from-tariffs-but-not-for-long.html
    Soon their patience (and elasticity) will wear thin.
    Meanwhile, the tariffs keep rolling up, 10 (baseline), 20 (Taiwan), 30 (South Africa), 40 (Laos), 50 (aluminum and steel), or more (Canadian steel/aluminum + 10% advertising)
    https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/22/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/
    Where is Snoopy when we need him?
    msf in Other Investing
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    ”Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.”
    $100 now equals $90.57 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 2%.
    $100 now equals $91.51 of purchasing power 3 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
    $100 now equals $86.26 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
    $100 now equals $84.20 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3.5%.
    Compound inflation calculator if anyone wants to play around with numbers.
    Sorry - Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
    Re FD’s remarks - From what I’ve read, housing prices have come down somewhat over the past year in parts of the country. One of the few areas that have. But mortgage rates are still much higher than just 3 or 4 years ago. So it’s a mixed bag.
    Who will buy these fantastic condos at these fantastic “low” prices?
    ”The median sale price for homes in Oakland, CA over the last 12 months is $850,000, down 3% from the median home sale price over the previous 12 months.” Source
    hank in Other Investing
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/21/the-23-bigger-cities-where-condo-prices-dropped-by-12-to-28-through-september/
    Condo prices in the markets on this list have dropped by 12% to 28% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each city has its own chart below, with some additional data. Prices through September, seasonally adjusted.
    The 23 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 28% from their peaks:
    Oakland, CA: -28% (2022)
    Cape Coral, FL: -28% (2024)
    Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
    St. Petersburg, FL: -25% (2022)
    San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
    Jacksonville, FL: -16% (2022)
    Tampa, FL: -16% (2022)
    Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
    Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
    Arlington, TX: -15% (2024)
    FD1000 in Other Investing