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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Keep in mind there are likely 100 to 150 million more people living in the USA then when many reading this were in high school..let alone likely a couple billion more on the planet. Of course this will have impact to some degree on the environment. From an insurance point of view, homes are being built where they weren't before and arguably shouldn't be . Take into account kooky policies which arguably have made things more difficult such as no controlled burns etc.
    At what point does the business model break? Would you pay 2%, how about 3%, what about 5% of the value of your house or car every year? I guess some already are, no? I keep telling my wife, the local ice cream shops are on that edge, their business model is going kaput...take the wife and two kids for ice cream and drop $30?
  • I Bonds - buy, wait for May and buy, or hold
    I sold all of our I-Bonds last fall when rates for CDs and Treasuries equaled or exceeded them. For me, the cumbersome buying and selling process for I-Bonds was a big factor in selling them. Also, I got in trouble at tax time because they do not mail out 1099 Interest forms and I forgot to report the income when I I initially filed. I then had to file an amended return and pay back our refund and then some. Not worth the hassle for me, particularly with Treasuries yielding 5% or more, and they can be easily bought and sold.
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    Yes, I was grandfathered into free M* thru TRP when the new threshold was raised from $100k to $250k. It still works, though my acct with TRP was closed and moved. But I'm still connected because my email address was used to connect a buddy's account with TRP to M*. That's what I'm thinking, anyhow. (I babysit that acct. for him.)
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    In dollar terms for my $1M umbrella policy, I'm paying ~$270/yr with NYCM. Erie quoted me ~$185 for a 1-year policy, so the cost per insurance company can vary greatly.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    @JD_co,
    Am I correct in assuming that the Innovator defined outcome and buffer products just get rolled, rather than get liquidated, when the current outcome period ends so investor's do not have a taxable event? Of course, when the current outcome period ends, the fund would have to assess and announce new outcomes for the subsequent outcome period which outcomes we may or may not like to continue to hold the ETF. I would not hold these in taxable accounts anyway because I may have to sell these at some point.
    Imagine all the derivatives being used for these protection / buffer strategies and if the counter party risks are to be considered.
    In any case, looking at AAPR, I think the 100% loss protection is by the end of the 2 year outcome period. Similarly, the 18% upside cap is by the end of the 2 yr period, which comes to less than 9% per year total return. Both anticipated outcomes before fees and expenses. As of 4/22, it lost 1.54% vs SPY 4.59%. At some point some investors may think they had more loss than they anticipated and exit. So, I think having right expectations is important for investors.
    https://www.innovatoretfs.com/etf/default.aspx?ticker=aapr
    The quest for the magic (no loss and returns in excess of fixed income) investment product, like the quest for eternal youth, continues!
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    Yes. M* is accessible through most US local libraries.
    I checked and they had no one asking for it but when I inquired, the Adult Ref Library Manager responded and turned it right away and they've been renewing it for the last 5+ years.
    All M* current Investment Newsletters are accessible from a laptop @Home to download/review.
    I do not know if the newer M* Platform is accessible.
    My old or new portfolios can now be created and tracked on the latest M*,
    as I have not visited their forums.
    Thanks.
    Majick
  • CD
    VUSXX has virtually the same yield as VMFXX (this has been true for several months), and is mostly state tax exempt.
    In a moderate (5%) to high (10%) income tax state, the fund can save 20-40 basis points in taxes (assuming the fund is 80% invested in Treasuries and yields stay above 5%). It may not be worth shopping different institutions to gain a few basis points, but moving from VMFXX to VUSXX can be done overnight and doesn't involve multiple institutions.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/money-markets#mm-rates
    Of course this only makes sense in a taxable account.

    Can VUSXX be used as settlement fund at Vanguard?
    Not certain what you are trying to achieve but you can have VUSXX as a fund in your brokerage account and when money comes into your settlement account (VMFXX) you can transfer them to VUSXX. Also, you can name any fund in your brokerage account, including VUSXX, as an "alternative redemption fund". This means that if you are writing checks and do not have sufficient funds in your settlement account, your checks will clear through your alternative redemption fund.
  • TIAA Traditional Modelling in Portfolios
    Modelling TIAA Traditional (SV) as a combination of fixed-rate annuity & T-Bills is also possible with MFO Premium. This example shows the CLASSICAL portfolio of 50% CREF Stock & 50% Traditional SRA as “QCSTIX [50] RATE0400 [37.5] TBILL [12.5]”, for the years ending on 03/2024,
    1-yr APR 14.0%, SD 7.0%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 13.6
    3-yr APR 5.6%, SD 8.5%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 17.6
    5-yr APR 7.8%, SD 9.2%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 18.4
    10-yr APR 6.6%, SD 7.6%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 15.2
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/606/tiaa-traditional-modelling-portfolios
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Hi Ron,
    Thanks.
    Have you compared this with the Innovator ETFs?
    https://www.innovatoretfs.com/define/etfs/
    I have not looked at them in nearly two years but my recollection is they carry similar flavor to this. I am hoping this being a newest one, it is better and improved for the consumer over all the earlier ones. With so many ETF launches these days, I can not keep up with the ETF universe. May be we should start an ETF thread! Look forward to what you learn when you finish reading the literature.
    "aims to match the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) up to a cap of 9.65%"
    Before or after fees and expenses?
    I like the 0-9.65% collar.
  • REITS moves in portfolio
    I used to hold FRESX and FRIFX in my portfolio with excellent returns during my period of ownership. Several years ago (before the COVID real estate crash), I sold both funds. Instead, I have much larger holdings in FSDIX, which typically has about 15% of its assets in REITs.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    A regulatory filing notes there’s no guarantee the fund will be successful in providing the much sought-after downside protection."
    A guaranteed return of 0% - 9.65%? There's simply no free lunch out there, so I remain skeptical.
    Let's see how it eventually performs.
    Kind of annoying that, at least in theory, you have to purchase on May 1st (and then hold for 1 year) to get the full benefit.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Via BBG:
    "Calamos Investments filed Monday for so-called “structured-protection” exchange-traded funds that will track a portion of the returns of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 while hedging 100% of the downside via the options market, according to a Monday filing.
    The first fund launching within the suite is the Calamos S&P 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF, which aims to match the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) up to a cap of 9.65%.
    The catch: Investors looking to reap the full protection will need to buy it on launch day — May 1, 2024 — and hold it, come rain or shine, through April 30, 2025. After that, a new defined period of cover kicks in.
    CPSM, like others in the upcoming ETF lineup, will primarily invest its assets in derivatives by buying and selling a combination of call and put options to cushion against market volatility, according to the fund’s prospectus. A regulatory filing notes there’s no guarantee the fund will be successful in providing the much sought-after downside protection."

    I'll need to read the prospectus to fully understand the mechanics, but this sounds kind of like those 'Principal Protection Notes' that Wall Street was foisting on retail investors in the years just before the GFC. Back then, with those products, if the index closed even ONE day outside of the collar, you forfeited everything but your principal -- so it became more like an unsecured loan to the issuer. But that said, if someone could guarantee (key word!) that vaunted zero downside and a 9.65% cap on the upside, I'd probably take it.
    ... of course if/when treasuries get back to 8% or more, that'd be a different story and I'd probably pounce on that. :)
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    T. Rowe Price overhauled its investor benefits a couple of years ago. The newer Summit program provides "Complimentary Morningstar Premium membership" at the Select Services ($250K) level and above. The old program used to provide this perk at $100K; I don't know whether this has been grandfathered in.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/about/client-benefits/index.html
    (Scroll about half way down for a table of benefits vs. investment amounts)
    M* has so crippled its search engine (how can one search for funds with more than 10% in EM now?) that there seems little left of benefit. Portfolio tracking can be done elsewhere (e.g. Fidelity), and as @Sven commented, reports are available at the library (which I read online). They're also available from Firstrade if you have an account login. (Years ago, Schwab provided them for free.)
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    You are on the board of your HOA and of course the one knucklehead in your neighborhood doesn't like the decision the board made...and sues....
    That's what D&O insurance is for.
    NOLO, What HOAs Need to Know About D&O Insurance
    If you have 8 figure+ portfolio and you are insured by a company that you see advertising on TV you probably are not with the right company...
    Maybe, maybe not. GEICO reaches into 8 figures (barely):
    Coverage limits on an umbrella policy start at $1 million and can go as high as $10 million for qualified applicants
    https://www.geico.com/information/aboutinsurance/umbrella/protect-your-future/
    Likewise, Liberty goes up to $10M:
    With up to $10 million in coverage, a Liberty Mutual umbrella policy from Liberty Mutual Insurance casts a wide net of protection for people with virtually any amount of assets they’d like to protect.
    https://www.homeowner.com/insurance/liberty-mutual-umbrella-policy
    USAA doesn't specify limits; it just says it will work with you on policies over $5M:
    We offer personal umbrella insurance from $1 million to $5 million in coverage. Need more than $5 million? We can help you get it through the USAA Insurance Agency.
    https://www.usaa.com/inet/wc/insurance_home_umbrella?akredirect=true
    $5M is a pretty conventional limit for policies that are offered without the insurer looking into the applicant. As GEICO notes, after a certain amount, it's going to qualify you before it issues a policy. This makes sense. Just as you can't buy life insurance for an unrelated person (aside from an essential employee) because that invites murder and insuance fraud, companies are not going to issue high value umbrella policies without justification.
    ...likely want to talk to Chubb...
    Even Chubb has places it won't go. A Business Insider headline:
    What's up with Trump and Chubb? Insurance giant balks at underwriting fraud-case bond days after blowback from E. Jean Carroll bond
    https://www.businessinsider.com/whats-up-with-chubb-trump-insurer-balked-at-fraud-bond-2024-3
  • WealthTrack Show
    Thanks @bee. I particularly like Ed Yardeni. Short summary:
    1. AI is a mathematical tool. His early adaptation to AI for writing monthly reports have encountered many errors. Cited several cases where AI encountered its limits on reliable usage.
    2. Fewer rate cuts than expected due to strong consumer demand and tight labor market.
    3 Concerns the worsening geopolitical conflicts across the globe with the adversaries such as Russia, China, etc. Recent rise of autocratic development including those in US are particularly alarming.
    4. Still favors US stock market over foreign market, particularly S&P1500 to have exposure of mid and small cap stocks.
    As an economist and Fed watch, Yardeni’s assessment is much more reliable compared to other pundits.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought back all the shares of NSRGY I sold Friday (small speculative position). As noted earlier it went X-dividend this morning and there would have been a 10% foreign tax on the dividend. (I guess this is all legal.) Also got completely out of SDS (2X inverse S&P). Replaced it with CCOR as a hedge. The 3 hedges, CCOR, SJB, PSQ, account for around 1.5% of portfolio - a “speed-brake” of sorts on down days.
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    No. T. Rowe Price used to offer the basic M* and they require an asset $250K.
    Please check your local library if they subscribe to their online service.
  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    Just for the heck of it.....being curious.
    MINT, (Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active Mg'd) bond etf had a better return in 2023, versus CD's and MMK'Ts; and appears to be on course for 2024 with similar performance results. No, it's not FDIC insured; but is readily bought/sold.
    Distributions are monthly.
    This etf is best suited inside a tax deferred acct, unless one doesn't mind the taxation at year's end tax time; not unlike CD and MMKT distributions.
    --- 2023 return = 6.25%
    Well, anyway; one may take a peek and find whether this etf may be a suitable add to a portfolio.
    MINT etf M* data. This link is for 'quote' page with various data. Next 'select' performance and then 'portfolio'.
    VettaFi profile.
    MINT etf at Stock Chart and technical RSI. The RSI at 99.66 for an extended period is one I've not seen before, period. But, this represents the continued strength of investor demand.
    PIMCO site.
  • WZRD - hedge fund trader creates an ETF
    This dropped nearly 2% on April 11, the day after CPI beat and the 10 yr crossed 4.5%. Except that the chart is acceptable to me.