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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    What is the outlook for dollar?
    Dollar bottomed in 2008-11 around 72. Now it is 104.66, so +45.36% of the cumulative US fund outperformance in the last dozen years is just due to the currency factor.
    Many diversified funds (including TDFs) may have substantial exposure to foreign markets, but not enough for them to be labeled global.
  • Interview with Tom Hancock PM of GMO’s QLTY
    Yes and it’s 5.8% of SPY too… so most of us already own it. Amazing how large a position in SPY it has become and so quickly.
  • Interview with Tom Hancock PM of GMO’s QLTY

    @MikeW - thanks for posting this. I went looking for the article this morning but I had already deleted the email it came in and couldn't retrieve it.
    Anyway, I have been thinking about buying some NVDA to leave to my kids not only because it's a good stock but also to take advantage of the upcoming 10:1 split. Then I decided that well, lets see how much I already kinda, sorta own. I combed through my mutual funds, CEF's and ETF's and came up with these percentages from the holdings information {6.33%, 12, 3.8, 25.87, 5.46, 3.76, 9.46, 5.02, 5.04, and 2.88}.
    It seems that it hangs out in a lot of places. The kids can just fight it out over those and Mr. Hancock can just wait until he finds it worthy. I do own a position in QLTY.
  • Conversation Between Jeff Gundlach and David Rosenberg (fairly recent)
    Is Boston for real , (NBA) ?
    Dunno Derf. I stopped watching NBA at least a month ago. Only watch BB on my 5x5’ wall mounted movie screen (using a projector TV). Game is so fast moving. But it doesn’t look good on the big screen in the summer when it stays daylight so long. Have been watching MLB (much slower paced sport) on a regular TV.
    Thanks for asking.
    The Gundlach video is fascinating I think. I realize both he and Rosenberg are dealing from a right-of-center political station where government debt is central to their market analysis. I don’t have to agree with their perspective to enjoy and learn from the discussion. Gundlach comes across as very bright - if just a bit arrogant. But he’s trying hard to be humble. :)

  • Vanguard Website
    Robinhood has a more attractive offering. Fidelity pays $1,000 per $1 million transfer. Payout will takes place 30 days afterward. I called ahead and to have an agent assigned to the transfer. Several accounts transferred took 5 business days. Make sure to submit the latest account statement online.
    Edit: this Fidelity bonus was also mentioned in Boglehead forum.
  • TestFol.io - Free Portfolio Analytics
    There seems to be an ISSUE with how TestFol handled the 3/25/24 reverse-split for BERZ & FNGD. So, there is a huge spike on 3/25/24 & then things are back to normal. Unfortunately, that kills the MaxDD for the period.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1492
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/29/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/29/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.0%, above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (26.7%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (34.2%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +12.3% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (118+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (33+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up (broad/trade-weighted index 122). Rising 10-yr yields are a headwind for stocks. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1491/thread
  • Conversation Between Jeff Gundlach and David Rosenberg (fairly recent)
    Rosenberg is a known bear...and bears are usually wrong.
    01/2019 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-bear-david-rosenberg-125800678.html) "growth will turn negative in 2019 as the stock market flounders". SPY made over 31%
    01/2024 (https://themarket.ch/interview/now-is-a-good-time-to-take-profits-and-thank-your-lucky-stars-ld.10391) "Good time to take profit" SPY made over 11%.
    Mr G, used to be the bond king, but he has been naked for years.
    FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
    "Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
    Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
    ====================
    MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
    G: stocks will go higher from here
    Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
    ==================
    August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
    Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
    ==================
    Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
    EM should out perform. Reality: they under performed
    Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 31%.
    The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
    ==================
    Gundlach, the king (without cloths) of bonds, predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
    Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank,
    QLTY is a relatively new fund with an inception date of 11/13/2023.
    GQETX is very similar to QLTY (holds some foreign stocks unlike QLTY) but its history is much longer.
    Since the $5mm min. initial investment for GQETX was "slightly" out of reach, I went with QLTY instead! :-)
  • Lebenthal Ultra Short Tax-Free Income Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1295908/000158064224002881/lebenthal_497.htm
    497 1 lebenthal_497.htm 497
    LEBENTHAL ULTRA SHORT TAX-FREE INCOME FUND
    A Series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust
    Supplement dated May 29, 2024, to the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2024
    Effective immediately, the Lebenthal Ultra Short Tax-Free Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”), has terminated the public offering of its shares and will discontinue its operations effective July 10, 2024. Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on July 10, 2024, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be redeemed at net asset value (the “Transaction”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), at the recommendation of the Fund’s investment advisor, DCM Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”), determined and approved by Written Consent of the Board on May 29, 2024 (the “Written Consent”), to discontinue the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Advisor’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Transaction, the Advisor will continue to waive investment advisory fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, if necessary, in order to maintain the Fund at its current expense limit, as specified in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Through the Written Consent, the Board directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than July 10, 2024; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on July 10, 2024, be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Transaction, the Fund’s portfolio holdings will be reduced to cash or cash equivalent securities. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objectives. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day prior to the Transaction. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “Redeeming Your Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to July 10, 2024, will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    Shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-888-484-5766.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Feds Take Down Botnet 911 S5 & Arrest YunHe Wang
    Feds have shutdown Botnet 811 S5 network that stole personal information, emails, passwords, IP addresses. In many cases, it utilized fake VPN services to install malware and hack computers. It compromised 19 million IP addresses in 190 countries. Interestingly, of the millions of fraudulent credit card orders (based on stolen personal information), only 4.62% could pass through the credit card fraud surveillance programs - keep this in mind when you encounter aggressive credit card fraud alerts next time. The operations were run by YunHe Wang who was arrested.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feds-largest-malicious-botnets-arrest-administrator/
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/911-s5-botnet-dismantled-and-its-administrator-arrested-coordinated-international-operation
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I'm away now until 12 June. Enjoy, everyone. 5 years since I've been "off the Rock." Of course, everything is in the crapper today. And somehow, the TS div. date has a new published day: 29th now, not 22nd, as previously published. And how does THAT s*** happen, eh? Adios.
  • Templeton International Climate Change Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/225930/000174177324002468/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    6316 P2 05/24
    TEMPLETON FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 29, 2024
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION (“SAI”)
    EACH DATED JANUARY 1, 2024, OF
    TEMPLETON INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE FUND (THE “FUND”)
    On May 22, 2024, the Board of Trustees of Templeton Funds, on behalf of Templeton International Climate Change Fund (the “Fund”), approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. The liquidation is anticipated to occur on or about August 9, 2024 (Liquidation Date); however, the liquidation may occur sooner if at any time before the Liquidation Date there are no shares outstanding in the Fund. The liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
    At the close of market on July 2, 2024, the Fund will be closed to new investors, except as noted below. Existing investors who had an open and funded account on July 2, 2024 can continue to invest in the Fund through exchanges and additional purchases after such date. The following categories of investors may continue to open new accounts in the Fund after the close of market on July 2, 2024: (1) clients of discretionary investment allocation programs where such programs had investments in the Fund prior to the close of market on July 2, 2024, and (2) Employer Sponsored Retirement Plans or benefit plans and their participants where the Fund was available to participants prior to the close of market on July 2, 2024. The Fund will not accept any additional purchases after the close of market on or about August 7, 2024. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time.
    Shareholders of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will have their accounts liquidated and the proceeds will be delivered to them. For those shareholders with taxable accounts and for Federal, state and local income tax purposes: (a) any liquidation proceeds paid to such shareholder should generally be treated as received by such shareholder in exchange for the shareholder’s shares and the shareholder will therefore generally recognize a taxable gain or loss; (b) in connection with the liquidation, the Fund may declare taxable distributions of its income and/or capital gain; and (c) an exchange out of the Fund prior to the Liquidation Date may be considered a taxable transaction and such shareholders may recognize a gain or loss. Shareholders should consult
    their tax advisers regarding the effect of the Fund’s liquidation in light of their individual circumstances. Participants in an Employer Sponsored Retirement Plan that is a Fund shareholder should consult with their plan sponsor for further information regarding the impact of the liquidation. In considering new purchases or exchanges, shareholders may want to consult with their financial advisors to consider their investment options.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Black rock income and bond funds and bitcoin
    https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-income-bond-funds-buy-bitcoin-etf
    Found this interesting.
    "BlackRock’s income and bond-focused funds have bought shares of the asset manager’s own spot Bitcoin
    BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the first quarter, regulatory filings show.
    BlackRock’s Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (BSIIX) snapped up $3.56 million worth of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while its Strategic Global Bond Fund (MAWIX) made a $485,000 purchase, according to May 28 Securities and Exchange Commission filings."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There is a transaction fees for secondaries.
    @BaluBalu, to my knowledge, I've never paid a fee for a transaction for secondary agency bonds, treasuries or corporate bonds on that page. Last time this was brought up here, I went through all my buy history and there were no fees listed. If you hear otherwise please let me know. If hidden and not shown in transaction history, that would be a surprise to me. So that gets back to what yield am I actually getting after yield is reduced for the fee?
    Edit
    Hi again @BaluBalu. I did a little research on the topic of transaction fees for fed agency secondary bonds. I think we both may be right. There is a transaction fee as you said. But per the info given below, the fee is shown inclusive in the yield shown. That would likely be why I never see a separate fee for the buy transaction.
    The rates shown below are the best available to Schwab for each maturity range and product based on a $25,000 face value amount. Click on the individual rates for the bond details. Rates and yields are delayed 15 minutes, and yields displayed are inclusive of transaction fees.
    Individual bonds - secondary trades
    $1 per bond online
    $10 minimum, $250 maximum online**
    So that gets back to what yield am I actually getting after yield is reduced for the fee? The list of yields is confusing:
    Price -- 99.850
    Current Yield -- 5.959%
    Yield To Maturity -- 5.970%
    Yield To Call -- 6.176%
    Yield To Worst -- 5.970%
    Coupon Rate 5.950%
    All these yields are pretty good in relative measure, but it would be nice to know which is accurate. If you clarify this info, please email. I'm going to inquire also, hopefully through my local office.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu, I typically go to Research - Bonds, CDs and Fixed Income and it defaults to the 'overview' page. That's where I look. I don't look for new issues. Not sure why that would matter if the yield you get is stated. But also, I may not know what I'm doing :).
    Farm Credit System 5.95% 05/24/2034 Callable
    CUSIP 3133ERFA4
    Price -- 99.850
    Current Yield -- 5.959%
    Yield To Maturity -- 5.970%
    Yield To Call -- 6.176%
    Yield To Worst -- 5.970%
    Call Details: Callable in whole or part Daily beginning 02/24/2025 with 5 days notice.
    Issuer Name Federal Farm Credit Bks Cons Systemwide Bds
    Maturity Date 05/24/2034
    Coupon Rate 5.950%
    Coupon Type Fixed
    Coupon Frequency Semi-annually
    Accrual Day Count 30/360
    Dated Date 05/24/2024
    First Settlement Date 05/24/2024
    First Coupon Date 11/24/2024
    Next Coupon Date 11/24/2024
    DTC Eligible Yes
    Evaluated Price 99.6387
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    Another option to consider is an annuity. We are considering investing my wife’s IRA in an annuity to simplify matters. It accounts for about 15% of our total retirement accounts, so we wouldn’t be locking up everything. An annuity would satisfy the RMDs for that account and would provide guaranteed payments for the rest of our lives, with no concerns about market conditions. The payout rate is pretty high right now due to rising interest rates.