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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    Gosh, this is a stodgy old board!
    Not at all. Several people on this site have suggested 100% (or near 100%) equity portfolios for young people. But those recommendations came with the proviso that the person had an emergency fund, or perhaps that the income stream was dead certain. And that there wasn't an alternative investment available with a higher projected risk-adjusted return.
    A lot to unpack there. If he had an inherited annuity paying a steady monthly income, that would be one thing. A job without more info is not a certain income. Right now, the economy is at surprisingly full employment (3.6% unemployment). When (not if) the economy goes through a recession, jobs will be at risk. Jobs are always at risk of becoming obsolete. Moving from job to job takes time, which is one of the points of having an emergency fund that will last a few months.
    A three stock portfolio of leading names may look good now, but then again, so did the Nifty Fifty. (FWIW, well before my time.)
    https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/party-like-its-1972-what-can-the-nifty-fifty-teach-us-about-todays-market/
    Building a diversified equity portfolio is a good idea for someone starting out. That doesn't preclude him from first building an emergency fund. (That exercise alone has the benefit of forcing one to budget expenses, including health care if employer coverage is lost.)
    Starting out with highly non-diversified portfolio is not a great idea. At the very least, he would be better off diversifying now - sell at least some of the stock (being inherited they likely don't have huge unrealized gains). That's not a buy/sell/hold recommendation on the individual stocks, but a suggestion for thoughtful portfolio management.
    Moving on to the alternative: paying down debt. As others have said here, that's 7% return, certain. Many sources project lower returns than that for equity over the next decade. Here's Schwab's take as of nine months ago. Admittedly things so far have gone better than projected last year (inflation coming down, employment remaining high).
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations
    image
    (Vanguard and others offer similar projections, though similarly predicated on a 2023 recession.)
    Something you didn't mention about the student loan is whether it might qualify for loan forgiveness (should that become a reality) and whether the amount he would pay down would cost him some of that "free" money. That might militate against paying down the loan.
    As you said, this is a learning experience for your grandson. Even if the risk of a catastrophic failure is small, should it happen he might not return to investing for years. It would seem to be better to virtually eliminate that risk (diversify now, have a cash reserve), even at the cost of (possibly) reduced returns for now.
  • Need a solid, good, consistent, un-flashy AA fund. (Closed thread.)
    Might consider tsumx Thornburg summit or while not quite what was asked, dstl with rolling 3 month tbills. 50/50
    Good luck!
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Hank, thank you for deleting part of your previous post. There is not a "pure" definition of bond funds and you know it. Use your judgement.
    Let's look at BAMBX "Strategy: The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a range of global asset classes, with a focus on fixed and floating rate debt securities and equity securities. It will normally invest in both U.S. and non-U.S. securities, including securities of companies located in emerging markets."
    AOK: looking below, it's not
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/composition?symbol=AOK
    Convertible: I'm posting for about 15 years and I haven't seen much discussion about it. Hybrid security. A convertible bond pays fixed-income interest payments, but can be converted into a predetermined number of common stock shares.
    I also would not include preferred stocks
    CEFs: they are leverage FI but again not really part of your typical bonds.
    RPSIX is OK, but LT I prefer PIMIX which has better performance for YTD, 1-3 years (https://schrts.co/fVnIsDbp)
    =========
    Observation: several unique MBS funds have shown good momentum in the last several weeks. Even PIMIX is on the run since the previous week.
    In my world, I hardly ever use HY,EM bonds because of their higher volatility.
    YTD: FAFRX is at 8.5%, not too shabby + lower volatility than HY funds.
    PIMIX stat report as of 6/30/2023
    image
  • INTERESTING WAY TO RUN A BUSINESS
    The NY Times is closing its sports department and will offer The Athletic, an online sports “page.”
    As the Brits say, there will be “redundancies,” amounting to at least 35 journalists. I don’t know if my subscription to the Times will continue with free access to The Athletic or if there will be an additional charge.
    Oh for the days of yore when the Gray Lady had the MLB box scores for all the games played the previous day, complete standings every day for all teams, stats on leaders in the various categories of hitting and pitching, etc. IIRC, the Sunday sports page was a veritable treasure trove of the stuff real fans love. I’m sure today’s fans and all their confusing statistical acronyms (something above replacement) used in place of just plain old numbers are just as obsessed as we old timers; it just don’t seem the same any more. Routine fly balls in the old days now are home runs that prompt a sound and light display in what pass for stadiums. Color me dejected.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    90% in bonds? Fine by me. Share away.
    I don’t have much “pure” anything. Prefer to give a manager some “wiggle room” running a fund and not lock them in to “pure this” or “pure that.”
    Hope @FD1000 will answer those 5 questions about his thread I tossed out earlier.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank Is this the thread? Although only 5 weeks ago.
    Yes. That’s it . Thanks @Crash. Might be of interest to @MikeM and others.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank Is this the thread? Although only 5 weeks ago.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There was a good discussion of this issue perhaps 2-3 months back. ISTM I initiated the post after getting hit with a 15% “foreign tax” on an annual distribution on an ADR (Swiss based). I’m unable to find that thread. But if anyone can pull it up it might help clarify things. There were some excellent comments by @msf and others.
    FWIW - Whatever the bottom line on this issue, it didn’t change my opinion about owning the stock. But I did recently sell it as part of a consolidation / risk reduction move. (And it’s been going up ever since)
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    Did not expect the survey to be less bullish (spread) now than on June 15.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Fido's MM funds are nearing 5%, which is fine by me as I continue holding longterm losers BND and BSV and VGIT, and must also be approaching $2T. I wonder how they will be able to continue with such growth.
  • Why inflation is losing its punch — and why things could get even better
    I have read so many opinions and projections about the interest rate environment and inflation. I am encouraged that there are signs that inflation might be slowing, which was the goal of aggressive interest rate hikes. On the other hand the Fed reaction to that can be so varied. I have a hard time seeing the Feds doing anything that may encourage inflation to return, so cutting interest rates does not seem likely for awhile. On the other hand the need to continue any aggressive rate hiking seems unnecessary if inflation is slowing, and could lead to a recessionary status. It seems to me that we are in store for some "happy place" where rates need to be more stable for awhile, close to the current level, before the Feds know what is needed next. I expect the rate hike in July, but we may be in a more extended period of nothingness, before the Feds decide what comes next (rate hikes/rate reductions/no changes). Banks are quite willing to offer to sell CDs for 18 month CDs for 5.25%, 2 years for 5.05%, and 3 years at 4.8%, which to me sounds like they expect slightly lower interest rates, but not a major reduction.
  • Why inflation is losing its punch — and why things could get even better
    The article talks about people lowering their standard of living, canceling gym membership, eating out less, ect. That's how to reduce inflation? By pricing a different basket of goods and services?
    That's the way supply and demand works - reduce demand and prices fall. Nothing so nefarious as changing the basket of goods priced from month to month.
    Chained CPI is the metric that accounts for substitutions.
    In its final form, the [chained] CPI-U is a monthly chained price index with the expenditure weights varying each month. The CPI-U and CPI-W, on the other hand, are biennial chained price indexes where their expenditure weights are updated every two years. Within the two-year span, these indexes are fixed-weight series, where the changes in these indexes reflect only changes in prices, and not expenditure shares, which are held constant.
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/chained-cpi-questions-and-answers.htm#Question_4
    FWIW, chained CPI rose 3.4% Y/Y vs. the 3.0% reported for the fixed basket, "regular" CPI.
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf (See Table 5.)
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    Bullish remained the top sentiment (41.0%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.9%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.1%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.1% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (72+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NATO promised more support for Ukraine, but membership only after the war; an upset Putin sent more missiles over Kyiv. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1107/thread
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Staying domestic here, apart from a single foreign ADR. Certainly not EM.
    BONDS: TUHYX junk +7.85% ytd.
    PRCPX. junk, +5.97% ytd.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    Some out of context exaggeration about cars if quoting that 42k bill. That’s specifically for one electric vehicle in a region where mechanics aren’t trained to repair them: https://nytimes.com/2023/07/03/business/car-repairs-electric-vehicles.html
    A more typical bill for a car damaged in an accident is $5,000 today and $6,200 for an electric one, according to the article.
  • Major Indexes Since 2022
    Just to add to that - Precious metals turned up sharply today as the dollar dropped. Lower U.S. interest rates going forward could cause the dollar to slump over time. Silver gained around 4.5% today. Gold was more subdued, but had a decent day. GDX (gold miners index) was up over 5%. Biggest day in months.
    I know those who vacated equities 12-18 months ago have been happy sitting on cash / short term debt at rates north of 5%. Who wouldn’t be? But one wonders if / when they may buy back into the equities they vacated at much higher prices? Getting the timing right is always tough.
    I’m as surprised as anyone at the strength of today’s equity markets.
  • Why inflation is losing its punch — and why things could get even better

    Following is a current report from NPR:
    Inflation has been bruising Americans for more than two years — and it's finally losing some of its punch.
    The Labor Department reported Wednesday that the consumer prices in June were up just 3% from a year ago — the smallest annual increase since March 2021. What's more, forecasters say inflation could fall further in the months to come.
    But two years of high inflation has left its scars, and people are adjusting their habits, potentially in permanent ways.

    image
    -                                 (Chart courtesy of The New York Times)
    Here are five things to know about the state of inflation today.
    Inflation has fallen sharply from its peak last year
    It was a totally different picture this time last year. Back then, inflation had topped 9%, fueled in part by record-high gasoline prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Since then, gasoline prices have tumbled more than 26%. And that's having a big impact on the day-to-day lives of many Americans, especially commuters like Kate Blacker from Jersey City, N.J., who travels about an hour each day to her job at a community college.
    "I'm a lot less worried now than I was six months ago, eight months ago, when the prices were rising so rapidly and I didn't know when that was going to cool down," says Blacker.
    Grocery prices also leveled off last month, in a welcome relief to consumers' budgets.
    And in another positive development in the midst of the summer, the price of airline tickets and hotel rooms fell in June, despite strong demand for travel.
    Inflation likely has further to fall
    Here's more good news: Even lower inflation rates are in the pipeline. Rent was a big driver of inflation in June, but people signing new apartment leases this summer are seeing smaller rent increases than they did a year ago.
    That takes time to show up in the government's inflation tally, but the writing is on the wall.
    Likewise, the wholesale price of used cars has been falling for several months, so those savings should continue to produce lower prices on dealers' lots.
    Omair Sharif, who heads the forecasting firm Inflation Insights, believes the next several months will be marked by mild cost-of-living increases, much like June was.
    "This is kind of the leading edge of the summer of disinflation," Sharif says.
    Companies may no longer be able to pad their profits
    Economist Lael Brainard says some companies added to their profit margins during the last two years of strong inflation — a trend that could soon be reversed.
    Brainard served as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve board before moving to the White House in February to direct the National Economic Council. She points to what she calls a "price-price" spiral, when companies see their costs go up, then raise their own prices even more.
    "It will be important for corporations to continue to bring their markups down after having raised them to unusually elevated levels over the past two years," Brainard told the Economic Club of New York Wednesday.
    Brainard says those higher markups "should unwind if consumers are more price-sensitive and firms have to compete more intensely."
    Many people are becoming more careful shoppers
    Two years of high inflation has left a mark on the way people spend money, and some of those changes may be lasting.
    Blacker, for example, postponed a trip to Los Angeles this summer, hoping to find cheaper plane tickets in the fall. She also canceled her gym membership, and says she and her partner are more thoughtful now about their food purchases than they used to be.
    "We didn't really look so much at the grocery prices before," Blacker says. "It was more like, 'Oh, let's look up a recipe and just get whatever it is that we need.'"
    With restaurant prices still climbing, she's also eating out less often.
    "It's something we have to be much more conscious about, in terms our budgeting for that," Blacker says.
    The Federal Reserve is not ready to declare victory just yet
    The data showing easing inflation on Wednesday will likely be greeted as welcome news to the country's inflation fighters, but the battle is probably not over.
    The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively over the last 16 months in an effort to curb demand and bring prices under control.
    Although the central bank opted to hold rates steady at its last meeting in June, forecasters expect at least one additional, quarter-point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.
    If inflation continues to trend down, however, that may just be the last increase in this cycle.
  • Major Indexes Since 2022
    This rally keeps climbing the walls of worry. It would be interesting to see of the rally collapses before the walls-of-worry.
    So, here are the 5 major indexes since 2022 - you may note a start date in mid-2021 but that is only for the relevant data points to clear the StockCharts legends area on the upper-left.
    The original link that may default after a while to 1 yr, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$INDU&compare=$COMPQ,$SPX,$TRAN,IWM&id=p58525850702
    Screenshot link https://i.ibb.co/cJxNnZ2/Screenshot-2023-07-12-17-36-42.png
    and by the MFO Image tool magic:
    image
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    FAFRX (bank loan) continues to do well YTD. Other good ones are GIFIX, then FFRHX. The first two funds...YTD>7%...one year>10-11%...3 year>19-21%. All 3 funds SD is about 4.2.
    But that's not all, compare this to PRCPX+TUHYX and you can see that HY has a much higher volatility. You want to achieve higher performance with lower volatility.
    YTD Chart(https://schrts.co/CuXmBygK)
    To see the volatility use only two funds: BL=FAFRX vs HY=TUHYX. See (https://schrts.co/vsTRCtXv) For YTD from Peaks and troughs, FAFRX was down only 1.5%, but TUHYX lost over 5%
    I have been saying for several weeks that rate hikes are at the end. Another +0.25% isn't going to change much. Bank loans continue going up. FAFRX went up another 0.26% today with YTD=8.1%.
    The 2 biggest things I changed compared to a "normal" market are more trading + staying days-weeks in MM which pays around 5%. I'm also pretty sure that certain categories will do nicely in 2023.
  • Memoriam: Robert Bruce (Bruce Fund)
    We ended our 2020 profile of the Bruce Fund with this note: "Bruce is an enigmatic fund because its managers choose for it to be so. They don’t explain themselves to the public, though do answer calls from their investors." Talked to Jeff Bruce for about 20 minutes today, and nothing has changed. He's very pleasant and agreeable but has spent 38 years with the mantra: we talk to our shareholders, not the outsiders." No interviews with Morningstar since the early 80s when Mr. Mansueto has a two person operation and a newsletter. (The younger Mr Bruce went to high school with Mr Mansueto but they seemed not to be in the same social circle.)
    The takeaway is that Jeff anticipates no change. He and his dad worked together for 38 years. They talked about each idea. If one of them liked it, they bought a little. If both of them liked it, they bought a lot. And vice versa with sells. The support team remains in place and confidence is unshaken.
    He does know that we've commented favorably on the fund's high cash stake. (Currently 25% with substantial overweights in defensive stocks.) He seems to appreciate the understanding. The fund is underwater today, mostly because they had anticipated a hard market. It is, he reports, their fifth-worst performance since launch. He admits that's there's somewhat limited comfort in the observation, "well, we have done worse four other times and always bounced back by striking with the plan."
    It's entirely cool that the manager, in their 450 square foot world headquarters, answers the phone himself on the second ring and enjoys talking with shareholders.
    For what that's worth,
    David