The Week in Charts (06/28/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:16 Topics
01:47 A Tale of Two Markets
11:41 Getting Closer to a Rate Cut
14:36 Down Goes the Yen
17:51 Obesity Drug Boom
19:48 Nvidia vs. Cisco
22:53 Rising Housing Supply
30:25 Immune to Higher Rates?
35:34 Travel Boom Continues
Video

@BaluBalu
I'm confused, not that it matters. When you say you 'pay off' a cc, or not pay it off, you mean pay the balance in full every month so there're no charges or interest and you're all set? Or do you mean something else, such as pay the required min and roll the rest to the next month at 23% or whatever? (If so, anyone here would have 'adviser advice.')
I may have been hallucinating, but I thought I recently saw my fico score at some site or other to be 879 or something, which I thought was not possible; and when I check it at BoA just now it's at 850, which I thought was the max. whatev.

Just an FYI - I am using about 10% of my total credit limit but 50% of that one card. I had previously asked and had CC companies decrease my credit limit, not knowing what percentage of available credit one is using is important.
Any way, I think I have exceeded my usefulness for this thread. So, expect this to be my last post.
Thanks @YBB. I shall keep that in mind.

@hank,
I have one of those payment holiday cards that requires only minimum payments every month, which I am guessing is about 1% of the account balance. The balance increases every month because I keep charging it to that card.
I did not set this card on auto pay to make sure I am not at the mercy of system failures. I manually pay the minimum immediately after the minimum due is known.
I did not know carrying a large balance on credit card dings your credit score. This credit card balance is the only borrowing I have. I have always paid off my credit cards before the due date and I continue that practice with all my other credit cards. Now, that you guys mentioned it, I checked my credit score and it did drop (by 7%) from the time I got that credit card, which may have resulted in my home owners' and auto renewals to go up as much as they did:55% and 20%, respectively, with no claims ever. If any of those premium increases relate to the deferral of payment on the credit card, that is too steep a price to pay for me for some measly opportunity benefit of interest income, which after tax is even more expensive, not to mention the complexity it adds to my life.
I will read later the links in @msf post.
I will think about this over the weekend but my first reaction is to pay off that credit card right away.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 7/1/24
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
25 bps decreases.
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, Newer IRAs 4.75%
(TIAA Declaration Year 3/1 - 2/28)
TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous 4.635%).
Edit/Add. July rate is 4.500%
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1534/thread

Thanks @msf. Excellent information. Credit score is typically around 800. I could be wrong, but doubt it would take a big hit. I still have another Elan card that’s been paid in full every month since first issued about 20 years ago. No auto loans / installment debt. Small 3.15% mortgage. Your articles provide good food for thought. I knew there was some connection between credit & insurance but was unaware of the extent.
When I tried doing the credit app online I hit a snag. So it was done over the phone. I really had my doubts whether the 18 months interest-free offer was for real.
Had built up a cash surplus inside the IRAs over past month or so thinking I’d pay off the work with a check. Today I put much of it back to work in the diversified portfolio. Fortunately, most markets haven’t moved much over past 30 days.
There’s a bit of a trade off. I won’t be using the card for “everyday purchases” anytime soon. For most people, I suspect, the 2% on everything they buy would be a greater “prize” over a year than what I’m planning to do.
Yes, the $1000 interest would be taxable, except it will be earned inside tax deferred / tax exempt IRAs by not having to withdraw monies a year earlier. My hypothetical example was kind of fuzzy on that.
While the contractor says he doesn’t currently charge a fee for CC payments, that could change. No guarantee until the work is completed / paid for. Some physicians in the area have a “courtesy fee” if you pay with a CC. Another contractor who did some work for me recently says he charges a 5% fee if you use a card.

for 2025+ : skip if you cannot replace it with a much better event.
although noncommercial and much narrower in scope, both ivey and columbia seem to host better annual events with more interaction...and usually even with a few recognized fund managers.

Cash back is not generally considered income, though the $1400 in interest certainly will be.
In most states, insurance companies use credit ratings to determine rates or even whether they'll renew your policy. Not just auto but homeowner policies. The good news is that you are in one of the few states where this is illegal.
https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/which-states-prohibit-or-restrict-the-use-of-credit-based-insurance-scores/
OTOH, law or no law, here's NerdWallet's table of how much credit scores relate to home insurance, even in those states where using those scores is illegal.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/credit-score-home-insurance-rates
However, this could be a result of correlation, not causation. Poorer neighborhoods tend to have higher homeowner rates, and lower income households tend to have lower credit ratings.
https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2021/05/06/low-income-homeowners-pay-more-for-insurance-in-most-states/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/are-income-and-credit-scores-highly-correlated-20180813.html

Subramanian is head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, and was the kickoff speaker for the conference. She made three sorts of arguments:
1. most market forecast models are completely useless. BoA has reviewed their performance and they have an R-squared of zero. That is, there is zero predictive validity in them. (Which models, exactly? For what time frames? Doesn't say, presumably because they would only slow things down.)
In addition, most strategists are contrarian indicators; the more they are enthused, the worse the market's forward returns. BoA has a timing model based on that: they survey strategies for their recommended equity exposure in a balanced portfolio. BoA has discovered that the best buy signal is when the average recommendation drops below 51.3% and the best sell signal is when it hits 58%. They survey 20 strategists monthly (I believe) and the current rec is about 55%, which she describes as providing a lack of guidance.
(What, you ask, is the genesis of this model? She seems not to know where it came from; she inherited it from her predecessor, Rich Bernstein, and suspects that he inherited it from his predecessor. What is that R-squared of BoA's model? No hint. And since she had a schedule conflict and had to leave right after her talk rather than do the promising Q&A with journalists.)
2. the market is in a good place just now. Traditional valuation metrics are all wrong since they're premised on an economy that no longer exists. Dynamic industries are asset-light, so book value is largely meaningless. Subscriptions have replaced sales. Inflation at 2-4% is positive for equities. Inflows are strong. The equity risk premium is historically low. US companies have been replacing people with AI which is good because "people are risky, processes are predictable." (Climate change doesn't exist, elections don't matter, we're on a permanently high plateau for ... sorry, that's an editorial aside.)
3. large cap value is the coming sweet spot. Pensions and hedge fund have become dramatically underweight publicly traded equities in favor of private equity, but the attraction of the latter is fading as correlations rise and gains are arbitraged away. In particular, she projects that boomers will need income, that fixed-income isn't attractive (we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates), and so there will be a migration to equity-income strategies centered on dividend-paying stocks. Prior to 2013, 50% of equity returns came from dividends (a troubled statement depending on the time-frame since, as she notes above, the economy has changed) and that might recur. Meta and Alphabet are both looking to initiate dividends, a sign of big tech growth stocks are maturing into more traditional corporations. Some IPOs have even played with the idea of incorporating a dividend into their initial offering (my head hurts). Sectors like energy (companies that are now rewarding their executives for decarbonizing and cash return rather than on meeting production targets), tech and financials stand to benefit.

Fidelity’s card has arrived. Plenty of available credit. Haven’t gotten around to activating it yet. The paperwork that came along says no interest on purchases until around the end of December 2025. Have contracted to have a major landscape / outdoor infrastructure project done this summer. Around $20K - but could go a bit higher. I called the contractor today and they will take the card and do not charge a convenience fee. Sounds too good to be true,
Being very conservative (and taking a simplistic look), 20K invested for 12 months @ 5% = $1,000
Then there’s the 2% cash-back that will go into my CM account. That’s another $400
So it looks on the surface like an easy $1400 gain on a 20K charge. More importantly to me, it would allow time to stagger distributions from my IRAs (the ultimate funding source) over a 12 month period. Not worried about a potential near-term “hit” to credit rating, as I rarely use credit.
- What I don’t know is whether there are minimum monthly payments required starting with month #1. I would certainly expect there are. Any thoughts what that monthly payment might be on a 20K balance?
- Re the 2% “cash back” … Is that by chance considered taxable income?
- Exactly when does that 2% cash-back get deposited anyway? End of monthly billing cycle? Would it still work even along with the free credit offer?
- If you returned an item 60 days after buying it for a merchant refund back to your card, would Fidelity need to go into your CM account and withdraw the 2% cash back credit?
And thank you to all of you for all the ideas and suggestions the thread generated!

I did (not for $5M - I wish!). Schwab told me that the higher bonus dollar amounts were for transfers from Fidelity but not from Vanguard. Was the offer you received for transfers from anywhere (or even better, from multiple sources combined)?
Since I had just closed my Vanguard accounts, I used Schwab as a replacement for Vanguard, not as a place in lieu of Fidelity, which I still use.
If the objective is to maximize bonus dollar value, one can use Merrill and/or E*Trade as additional receptacles for assets. With Merrill you can harvest another $1K bonus for a $250K transfer (any combo of sources) for up to two accounts (total $2K) - one taxable, one IRA. With E*Trade, you can get $5K for just $1.5M in assets, but this must be into a taxable account.
Holding periods are different with each promotion. Schwab requires assets to remain for a year, Merrill 90 days, and E*Trade 6 months.
https://www.merrilledge.com/offers/pr1000
https://us.etrade.com/what-we-offer/how-it-works/promo

Oh darn, I wish my $5M were at Vanguard an unloved brokerage. I could use another $6K this year.

I just transferred my Vanguard taxable account to Schwab (considerably < $5M!).
The transfer completed yesterday.
Contacted Schwab last night because there were a few discrepancies.
Vanguard may be responsible for these discrepancies.
Need to contact Schwab later today to dig deeper...
Edit/Add:
Vanguard did not transfer fractional shares for my ETF yesterday.
It sold the fractional shares earlier today.
The proceeds of the ETF sale plus residual cash equals the discrepancy amount.

Sold shares of two VG index funds yesterday and today to bring Market Portfolio stock allocation down to low end of range. Parking latest proceeds in VMRXX paying 5.29%. Swung for the fences in 1st half of 2024 and did better than projected. Simply booking gains over the past few days and reducing stock exposure and portfolio volatility. For first time since starting investing in 1980, effectively treating 2024 as an act in two parts, as I'm thinking things may start getting dicey in route to November.

I just received the offer this morning. $6K for 5 million transfer of cash or other. Lesser amounts available. Starts at $300 for $50K transfer.

interesting to note that vhcax, the 3rd primecap vanguard fund w/admiral fees, has not reopened.
its largest holding, lilly @$2.5b in value, is bigger than the next 4 combined.
if i had to guess one secret sauce for primecap and giroux, its avoiding sentiment plays from the onset but letting business winners run.

If you look at the top 10 or 20 holdings, they were first purchased 20 years ago. And per M*, the turnover is 6%.

interesting to note that vhcax, the 3rd primecap vanguard fund w/admiral fees, has not reopened.
its largest holding, lilly @$2.5b in value, is bigger than the next 4 combined.
if i had to guess one secret sauce for primecap and giroux, its avoiding sentiment plays from the onset but letting business winners run.

Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/24
Notable shifts into stocks. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $34.59 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $345.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.59%, Hybrids 4.53%, Bonds 17.88%, M-Mkt 17.01%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1533/thread

$5 -$10 player at crap table. Think I'll stay away.

Don’t get megoing on the airlines …
- Of 3 trips since the first of December I’ve been boarded and then taxied and returned to the terminal 4 times.
- On a 5th we got within a couple hundred miles of the final destination (home) and turned back to land at the departing airport (ORD) due to mechanical problems.
- On one the departing flight was cancelled at 1 PM and checked luggage returned. But the flight then departed at 8 PM.
- On 2 of those 3 trips I was stranded overnight in Chicago after the first flight landed anywhere between 5 and 8 hours late causing a missed connection.
- On one (into Key West) the incoming flights were so backed up we waited 90 minutes to get off the sweltering plane out on the tarmac.
- On one, after we’d taxied back to the gate for mechanical issues, a woman ahead of me in first class began screaming at the male flight attendant: “I want another drink. Bring me a drink now!” But he refused to jump rope at her command. Settled down only after he threatened to bring the plane’s skipper back to talk to her. I believe I’ve since seen this woman several times on Bloomberg being interviewed about stocks. Very important Wall Street person (at a big investment bank).