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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • the September issue of MFO is live
    Just in case you think I made it up, "Sand mining is a huge problem, new global survey shows" (9/5/2023)
    That vis-a-vis my modestly cheerful story on concrete this month.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    image
    Happened to see this beauty on the water yesterday. Thought it might belong to someone here. :)
    I really haven’t a clue where you should put your money. Maybe invest in a boat?
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    FZDXX for right now, 50/50 FXAIX and QQQM when the fit hits the shan.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @Baseball_Fan, if you capitalize your mutual fund tickers it would be easier for people to read and review funds. Yes, shout it out :)
    I might do:
    50% PRWCX
    30% AVGE
    20% CD/treasury ladder going out 5 years.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    For decades, Jim Lebenthal sold muni bonds as investments in public works - power plants, sewers, parks, transit, etc. IOW, infrastructure.

    But infrastructure ≠ ESG. (Hard to see how a Yankee Stadium muni bond is ESG.)
    Here's a 1932 ad for munis to support construction damming Hetch Hetchy (part of Yosemite National Park), and John Muir's writing about the valley and the then proposed dam.
    That any one would try to destroy such a place seems incredible; but sad experience shows that there are people good enough and bad enough for anything. The proponents of the dam scheme bring forward a lot of bad arguments to prove that the only righteous thing to do with the people's parks is to destroy them bit by bit as they are able.
    ...
    These temple destroyers, devotees of ravaging commercialism, seem to have a perfect contempt for Nature, and, instead of lifting their eyes to the God of the mountains, lift them to the Almighty Dollar.
    Dam Hetch Hetchy! As well dam for water-tanks the people's cathedrals and churches, for no holier temple has ever been consecrated by the heart of man.
    https://vault.sierraclub.org/john_muir_exhibit/writings/the_yosemite/chapter_16.aspx
    The Sierra Club echoed that last line in its successful campaign against similarly damming the Colorado River at both ends of the Grand Canyon. "“Should we flood the Sistine Chapel, so tourists can get closer to the ceiling?”
    https://energyhistory.yale.edu/sierra-club-grand-canyon-dam-advertisements-1966/
    If you're interested in green bonds, that's a different matter. Here's a 10 minute background video from CNBC on green bonds.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/05/28/green-bonds-growing-part-trillion-bond-market-how-they-work.html
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    -Lock-in 5+% CDs. Grab as much duration as you can. 20%. ($20k)
    -PRWCX (yes, closed to new investors.) 30%. ($30k.)
    -BHB. 5%. ($5k). still a bargain. A fine dividend, too.
    -KRC Kilroy Realty. REIT. 5% ($5k.)
    -TUHYX a junk fund, performing very well. 10%. ($10k.)
    -BAESY (BAE, British. ADR. Military.) 10%. ($10k.)
    -NGKSY. (Japanese. ADR. Auto parts. Helluva dividend.) 5% ($5k.)
    -ET (Oil/gas midstream.) 5% ($5k.)
    -BRUFX. balanced fund. Good entry point? It's not exactly shooting the lights out in '23.
    10%. ($10k.)
    ______________________
    100%.
    Priorities and circumstances DO matter: retired, but wife still works. Already comfortable and investing for heirs. Only moderately aggressive these days. Don't want to hold TOO much fixed income. But FDIC-insured stuff is hard to beat.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    For kicks and giggles and ideas, not recommendations...
    3/6/12 month tbills, equally, 45%
    Mrfox, Marshfield, 15%
    Pvcmx, Palm valley, 25%
    Cbldx, crossing bridge, 15%
    What say you?
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    @Sma3
    I included a Figure #1 in the August 2022 issue that calculated Federal Taxes Plus Medicare Premiums + the Net Investment Income Tax. The spreadsheet was easy for my particular circumstances. My intent was to estimate the optimum Roth Conversion.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2022/08/retirement-planning-in-the-shadow-a-recession/
    I started to update the spreadsheet to be more generic, but as @msf said,
    The complexity of this surcharge alone illustrates why building a spreadsheet that handles the short term effects of one rule is difficult, let alone a spreadsheet showing long term effects or the interplay between different rules.
    Here is a document describing how to calculate how much of Social Security Benefits are taxable:
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p915.pdf
    Here is an article describing how IRA withdrawals may impact the NIIT.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-ira-withdrawals-in-the-crossover-zone-can-trigger-the-3-8-medicare-surtax-on-net-investment-income/
    Here are the Medicare Premium rates:
    https://www.medicare.gov/Pubs/pdf/11579-Medicare-Costs.pdf
    As I started to update my spreadsheet to be more generic, it became complex. What I decided was to look for a spreadsheet much like you are looking for. What I found is a Spreadsheet that contains templates needed to complete the 1040 and follow the instructions in the 915 document. I downloaded the spreadsheet and it is comprehensive, although most is not relevant to me:
    https://sites.google.com/view/incometaxspreadsheet/home/download
    One note is that the spreadsheet only has 15 formulas. It uses several hundred named ranges and it will be helpful but perhaps not necessary to know how these work. The spreadsheet is protected so you can't modify the existing formulas, but you can add a sheet and write new formulas.
    My approach will be to replicate my latest taxes to get familiar with the forms and then update it for this year. The final step will be to add in a sheet on Medicare Premiums. I can then play what if scenarios.
    Cheers,
    Lynn
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Inspired by @Baseball_Fan's CBLDX suggestion, starting a position. Hate the $49.95 fee at Fido, but love the 8.8% yield on short-term securities. The Fed probably cannot do much additional "tightening" this year. Right? Just in case, I'll add another slug next quarter.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Terry Savage, who writes a finance column and has been at if for a long time, was noting, rolling tbills 3, 6 months a time with "chicken money" as she calls it...she's prolly right...
    Not sure where you are driving at, but I will let MFO posters here to decide if Warren Buffet is rationally rolling over $6 billion chicken dollars into T bills every week. @yogibb and others here considered short term T bills as risk-free instruments. Some even venture out beyond 6 months to 2-5 years. By the way, many money managers are also taking advantages of 5% yield on their cash equivalents.
    Addition: sorry that I was cranky. The biggest risk with T bills is when inflation rates exceed treasury yields. They were not attractive until the yields went up in 2022. At some point when the yield curve normalizes again, one needs to move to longer duration treasury notes.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    The NIIT is 3.8% of the smaller of (a) the amount your MAGI exceeds the threshold ($250k, $200k, or $125k) or (b) your net investment income.
    See "Application to Individuals" section of https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i8960
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    How far out are you going in duration wth your tbills @Sven if I may inquire? Curious as to whether we will regret NOT going out to 5, 10 years with t notes, looking backwards in later 2024? Just a few years ago, getting 4%+ over 5 years was fairly solid, no? Of course inflation might ding you bigly if you get to cute with it.
    Terry Savage, who writes a finance column and has been at if for a long time, was noting, rolling tbills 3, 6 months a time with "chicken money" as she calls it...she's prolly right...
    Personally as long as I can get 5%+, I am pushing out as far as that goes with tbills/note, (picked up some 5% 2 year notes recently as well as 1 year tbill)....also looking real close at CBLDX, Crossing Bridge....will prolly step in with 6 figure + by EOY or sooner there....
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    Thanks for the link. It seems that you will still pay the 3.8% if the conversion pushes your AGI over $200,000 or $250,000, but only on your "investment income".
    While complicated, it is still just math. My problem with building spreadsheets is trying to copy the formulas correctly.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    YBB does not push his very own market-timing schemes.
    Nor does he denigrate factors that aren't meant to predict the market in an effort to convince people that his schemes can time the market. Consequently, YBB does not have to post disclaimers if people lose money practicing his scheme:
    Just like anything else practice makes you better.
    Lost money following your scheme? More practice.
    Maybe you aren't a duck. But you sure do quack with the flock.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    WABAC, several posters supported my opinion about all-caps, you can too.
    What do I do? I can write a lot about it and did in the past, but not anymore. Believe it or not, it works pretty well. It's mostly at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all)
    HUCKSTER.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    WABAC, several posters supported my opinion about all-caps, you can too.
    What do I do? I can write a lot about it and did in the past, but not anymore. Believe it or not, it works pretty well. It's mostly at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all)
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    BTW, MFO isn't user-friendly for tabular materials; often, the URLs have to be reposted/redone; as noted above, colors aren't supported
    To preserve spacing, for tabular materials or other text, you can tell the browser that the material is preformatted so that it doesn't try to reformat (generally compress all whitespace to a single blank). Put <PRE> before the text and </PRE> after it.
    For example, here's CNBC's table of MFJ tax brackets for 2023:
    $22,000 or less	10% of the taxable income
    $22,001 to $89,450 $2,200 plus 12% of amount over $22,000
    $89,451 to $190,750 $10,294 plus 22% of amount over $89,450
    $190,751 to $364,200 $32,580 plus 24% of amount over $190,750
    $364,201 to $462,500 $74,208 plus 32% of amount over $364,200
    $462,501 to $693,750 $105,664 plus 35% of amount over $462,500
    $693,751 or more $186,601.50 plus 37% of amount over $693,750
    This isn't perfect (see first line) because preserving tabs is sometimes not enough to completely reproduce the spacing. Adding a second tab in the first line fixes that.
    $22,000 or less		10% of the taxable income
    URLs are problematic when they include embedded whitespace. For example, http://www.example.com/my beautiful page
    doesn't work because it looks like the URL ends with "my". This is fixed by using the link icon and inserting the URL in the dialog box. No redoing of the URL (i.e. replacing the blanks with '%20's) is needed.
    http://www.example.com/my beautiful page
    Color is certainly supported by MFO, but it has to be handled manually.
    @Old_Joe provided an excellent example of how to do colors and tables with HTML tags for colors (as I did, above) and explicit blanks (&nbsp;) for precise spacing. Here's his post: https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/167577/#Comment_167577
    To see how he worked this magic, see here:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/post/quote/61469/Comment_167577
    Based on his encoding of blue as 0x0000FF rather than "blue" (which is what I used), I would guess that he used a tool to process the table he was transcribing.
    MFO certainly isn't user-friendly when it comes to these sorts of formatting, but posting with things like color are not impossible.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook

             2023 tax brackets: married, filing jointly
    Tax rate     Taxable income bracket        Taxes owed

        10%                   $0 to $22,000             10% of taxable income.
        12%               $22,001 to $89,450         $2,200 plus 12% of the amount over $22,000
        22%              $89,451 to $190,750        $10,294 plus 22% of the amount over $89,450
        24%             $190,751 to $364,200        $32,580 plus 24% of the amount over $190,750
        32%             $364,201 to $462,500        $74,208 plus 32% of the amount over $364,200
        35%             $462,501 to $693,750        $105,664 plus 35% of the amount over $462,500
        37%                 $693,751 or more           $186,601.50 plus 37% of the amount over $693,750
    Link to Information Source
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION is the fact that:
    1) It can't predict the next 3-6-12 months
    2) It can't predict market correction and which index/category will go down more.
    3) Once upon a time PE10(CAPE) looked like a decent indicator until it failed miserably.
    Prof Shiller created PE10 which is supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
    On 05/2012 (https://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/pf/investing-Shiller.moneymag/index.htm)
    Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
    Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
    If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
    FD: In reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets.
    4) If valuation or another indicator has been how you make more money, we would have a lot more investors such as Buffett and Lynch. Times have changed too...article quote:"It’s harder to find overlooked stocks than it was in Lynch’s day because more people are looking for them — anyone with a smartphone has free access to extensive markets and financial information. The result of greater competition is evident in the numbers: Fast-growing or highly profitable companies are almost always the most expensive while the cheapest ones come with lackluster growth or thin profits."