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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Schwab/TDA 24x5 updates
    Today in ThinkDesktop I see certain stocks now showing a beige icon indicating it's available for 24x5 trading. Not sure how they're picking them since only INTC and EXC are showing it on my watchlist, while other 'big' US names are not. Guess it's a slow roll-out..... I'll try to see what their bid/ask is like during the late local news sometime .... or maybe on the way back from the bathroom at 3AM if I remember and am so inclined. :)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Laid on a zero-cost (actually a .17 credit) at the open for a Feb 25 collar on my WMB position that's got 75% gains since January.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    A quick search of their site does not show these ETFs are out yet.
    I am interested in the Hedge Equity ETF so I can move PHEFX out of my IRA.
    Edit: The draft prospectus is dated Jan 17, 2025
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings and flows to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 22 November, reflecting risk and return metrics thru October and month-to-date (MTD) thru yesterday. Flows are through Friday, 15 November.
  • How risky might this etf be as a cash stash? (JAAA)
    If you want to make more, forget about words like "safe" "investment grade" "risk" "in the past it did terrible". Success comes from an uptrend with lower volatility (in my case)...and good trading.
    If you want to be safe with low risk and hold for years, you will miss opportunities. What I find funny that my so-called risky funds had lower volatility and great returns. Nothing is guaranteed, of course. Just compare DODIX to CLOZ
    See one year return for the above 5 funds (https://schrts.co/PJYGjPTK)
  • BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on the Golden Age of fixed income
    Old draft - added a bit on Strong Advantage (historical ultra-short fund illustrating the need to look beyond monthly returns if one takes on a little risk). Other than that, text is as drafted. Too much to go back and reedit.
    I was a bit surprised by the differences in worst Quarter vs best Quarter relative to the same IG corp credit. As the article says, do not put your short term cash needs into this fund. So, I was wrong in using JAAA as a cash substitute!
    Different readers, different takeaways. What I read seemed to say the opposite, viz. that AAA CLO funds could serve as a cash substitute:
    Some investors – not wanting to put their short-term cash reserves at risk – may feel uneasy with any volatility within their short-duration bucket. ... we believe many investors are too cautious in this regard and could handle more volatility in their short-duration bucket in exchange for higher potential returns. Historically, despite occasional drawdowns, AAA CLOs have still ended up comfortably ahead of cash over the long term.
    You may be focusing on the "long term" above. That doesn't rule out reliable shorter term performance. Perhaps it is worth examining what one expects out of a cash substitute. If it's absolute stability, then no bond funds will do. Otherwise, the field is open.
    Before the GFC, there were a bevy of what are broadly termed "enhanced cash" funds. They took tiny steps out from MMFs along the duration spectrum. iMoneyNet has a taxonomy I still like:
    • Cash Plus: <180 day duration, includes some LT &ge:A-; good for investing 3-6 months
    • Enhanced Cash: 0.5-1 year duration, includes some LT ≥BBB; expect to hold at least 6 months;
    • Ultrashort: 0.5-2 year duration, includes some LT LT ≥BBB; expect to hold at least 6 months;
    2006 piece on enhanced cash funds from Barclay's
    AAA CLOs seem to fall somewhere in the Cash Plus to Enhanced Cash range. If you're expecting to draw large amounts of cash within, say, a month, this is not for you. But then neither is a six month CD.
    I find I'm thinking about these AAA CLOs the way one should have thought about Strong Advantage (STADX) when it was still a Strong fund (1990s - 2005). Something that one could use to hold cash, but not short term cash. Here's how its 2001 prospectus read:
    [The fund invests] primarily in very short-term, corporate, and mortgage- and asset-backed bonds. The fund invests primarily in higher- and medium-quality bonds. To enhance its return potential, the fund also invests a portion of its assets in bonds that have longer maturities or are of lower-quality (high-yield or junk bonds), though it may not invest in bonds rated below BB. The managers focus upon high-yield bonds rated BB with positive or improving credit fundamentals. To help limit changes in share price, the fund's average maturity is usually one year or less. To a limited extent, the fund may also invest in foreign securities.
    Not exactly what one would look for in a cash-ish fund. Yet it outperformed MMFs in 8 of the 10 years between 1991 and 2000, by as much as 5.4% and never underperformed by more than 0.5% (all from prospectus).
    In the early 2000s its risks became apparent, as it underperformed its peers by 1-2% in 2002 and even lost 0.73% in 1Q2002. But it still made 0.83% for the year. The point is that funds that are not good for day-to-day cash can still be good for cash investments. (FYI: Strong Advantage was renamed Strong Ultra-Short in this period.)
    Talk about picture perfect. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PAAA
    @Junkster is being a little selective here. As this PGIM piece says in its title, Not All CLO ETFs are created equal. PGIM says that its fund holds all AAA tranche CLOs, while others may not. M* does show JAAA holding some AAs, which adds volatility. That's okay, it's not much (PV, over PAAA's short life gives 0.5 volatility vs. 0.6 for JAAA.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "I do not currently have a single Agency bond as every one of them I bought got called."
    "[A]gree, agency bonds never seem to get past the first call date for me . . ."
    While that has been our collective experience, there is a non-zero probability that Agencies may not be called sometime in the future. I say this because some investors outside this forum have bet $Bs against long term bonds (or they are long interest rates).
    I am asking myself, "if I would be OK if the bonds I am buying never get called?"
    A corollary thought is, "Am I better off with an Agency that presumably gives me only a six month call protection than a corporate bond that might give me a longer period of call protection but of lower credit quality?"
    Many factors go into answering these questions and every investor's situation is different from the next one.
    In the few times I looked in the past couple of years, I have not seen a new issue Agency with a year or more call date. What is your experience? May be share when you see one.
    Edit: Currently, there is a new issue single "A" corporate (Prudential Financial), non-callable, 5Yr, yielding 10 bps more than Treasuries. That is a scary spread.
  • How risky might this etf be as a cash stash? (JAAA)
    @Hank, I held it for the last year but sold it recently. The HY spread plunged to near record lows back in early August, and JAAA responded poorly, briefly. (The spread quickly trended back down again afterwards.) I took JAAA's response to the spike as an indication of underlying risk.
    It might be fine for some time longer, but the spread's been this low only a couple of times before, one of them being right before the Great Recession, when it spiked up from ~2.5 to ~20.
    Again, the income side looks good, but I wouldn't think of it as a cash sub. Ultra short duration etf's I own right now are USFR, MINT, and VRIG. I think any of those, and others, are closer to being cash subs than JAAA.
    On the FRED chart, choose maximum as the time frame to see what I meant above about the record spread lows.
    Edit: msf makes a good case for PAAA just below. From a quick M* chart comparison, it's competitive with JAAA return recently.
  • PRWCX availability
    Comparisons are what software tools are for.
    Build a M* portfolio with $10,000 worth of PRWCX and around $6,000 worth of TCAF. That is to account for the fact that only about 60% of PRWCX is in equity. So $6K of equity in this portfolio comes from PRWCX and $6K from TCAF.
    Run X-ray and look at stock intersections.
    There's an old saying: Give a man a fish ... If you want to know more about how these funds match up, go fish.
  • Credit cards and brokerages
    More on traveler credit cards (NYTimes, Nov 15th) along with the comments I posted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/travel/choosing-the-best-travel-credit-card.html:
    https://www.nytimes.com/shared/comment/439grp?rsrc=cshare&smid=url-share
    Some places may not accept both Visa and MC. Costco is well known for taking only Visa, but this is also important when traveling. My tour company writes of Argentina:
    Visa is commonly accepted, but MasterCard and American Express are not. In November 2022, the government of Argentina added a new financial exchange rate (known as “Dólar MEP” or “Mercado Electronico de Pagos”) for all travelers paying with credit cards issued outside of Argentina. This new exchange rate is higher than the official dollar, but is more convenient for travelers. It is essentially a tax on credit card use for travelers. We recommend that instead, you visit an exchange house with your Trip Experience Leader as dollars are appreciated and you will likely get a better exchange rate than paying with card
    (I'm still trying to figure out Argentina pesos exchanges and rates:
    https://solsalute.com/blog/money-in-argentina-currency-exchange/)
  • WealthTrack Show
    Hi @Observant1
    I've tried to help and push some folks over many years dealing with their bad habits, with their money . There have been a few success stories. I'm pleased about that.
    The below book has been a gift, over the years, on several occasions, as part of a wedding gift. Written in 1996, the book is more of a guide for personal finance; and one has to forget about the money values noted at the time. The book is more of a money habits guide; both the good and the bad. The thoughts still apply today.
    A snippet:
    wealth is more likely the outcome of prudent spending and saving habits than high income or inherited wealth.
    The Millionaire Next Door
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (11/22/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    01:07 Topics
    02:49 Fat Tails and Lumpy Returns
    08:34 Nvidia Hardware Is Eating the World
    21:27 The Narrative Fallacy
    30:41 Why the Fed Will Be Forced to Pause
    39:42 The "Dogecoin Millionaire" Gets a Second Chance
    49:28 Knowing When to Sell
    52:03 Super Bowl Predictions
    55:42 Falling Jobless Claims
    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (11/20/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    01:08 Topics
    02:04 Inflation Isn't Going Away
    09:03 The Bond Market's Message to the Fed
    14:28 Borrowing From Our Future
    15:59 DOGE vs. $DOGE
    19:29 Post-Election Market Euphoria Is Fading
    24:44 Rising Real Wages
    Video
    Blog
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    ***** CWB in the list, indicates a + 3.02% gain for the week. I can not find any data that relates to this large gain.
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E November 22 , 2024..... Bond NAV's had weekly positive numbers
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'slightly UP' for this week's pricing. Many bond sectors where 'every which way' for most of the week, with price recovery for most sectors on Friday, which helped the positive prices for the week. Short and long duration bonds took turns with up and down pricing on various days. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was erratic . The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 18 - November 22, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.45% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week. MM's yields were down SLIGHTLY at .03 - .04 basis points for the week.................
    --- AGG = +.15% / +1.61% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.13% / +5.37% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.01% / +3.26 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.08% / +1.61% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.30% / -.04% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.30% / +2.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.14% / +4.57% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.13% / +4.23% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +.39% / -1.84 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.34% / -5.54% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.41% / -9.51% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.50% / -12.08% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.51% / +20.27% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +.74 % / -29.25% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.21% / +2.12% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.12% / +4.92% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = +.13% / +1.61% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = +.46% / +1.67% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.25% / +7.69% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +.33% / +8.06 % (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.15%/+5.19% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.17% /+1.75% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.53%/+6.41% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +3.02% / +14.02% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.34% / +10.36% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.45% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • PRWCX availability
    WBALX Conserv. Alloc. fund is 4.32 % of my total. Your post above prompted me to look:
    It's 44% stocks, 47% fixed income. And 8.25% cash, but almost 5% short. And it's overweight in materials, compared to its Index. 10.5% in Materials.
    My other Alloc. fund is PRWCX.
  • PRWCX availability
    With the stock market going up this year, my total equity exposure was not going up and so I wanted to check if I am fiddling too much with my port or my fund managers are fiddling too much.
    As of 10/31, FBALX is 65% in equity and PRWCX is 60% in equity.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRWCX
    Based on M* analysis, Giroux is defensively positioned in terms of total equity exposure. M* analyst (human) report says,
    "Giroux and team deliver a high-conviction basket of roughly 50 stocks that account for 60%-70% of the fund’s assets. He’ll shift the exposures meaningfully when he identifies mispricing, such as scaling up equity exposure when drawdowns bring valuations to a more attractive level. Giroux executed this approach in 2018, early 2020, and again in 2022. Although such moves can be early at times, driving steeper short-term losses, they’ve paid off over the long run. Don’t expect the stock weight to fall below 60% often, if at all. The team is more confident in identifying market bottoms than tops."
    I am probably more guilty than my fund managers for my lower than expected equity exposure.
    Feel free to post if you noticed how any of your other funds are positioned.
    I hope @WABAC does not mind my changing the direction of this thread.
    Heavens to Betsy, what a thought; it has been moldering in the grave. :)
    As described elsewhere, I dumped FBALX because their duration is too long for me, and I already have a couple of Fido stock pickers in FMILX and FDSVX.
  • PRWCX availability
    With the stock market going up this year, my total equity exposure was not going up and so I wanted to check if I am fiddling too much with my port or my fund managers are fiddling too much.
    As of 10/31, FBALX is 65% in equity and PRWCX is 60% in equity.
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRWCX
    Based on M* analysis, Giroux is defensively positioned in terms of total equity exposure. M* analyst (human) report says,
    "Giroux and team deliver a high-conviction basket of roughly 50 stocks that account for 60%-70% of the fund’s assets. He’ll shift the exposures meaningfully when he identifies mispricing, such as scaling up equity exposure when drawdowns bring valuations to a more attractive level. Giroux executed this approach in 2018, early 2020, and again in 2022. Although such moves can be early at times, driving steeper short-term losses, they’ve paid off over the long run. Don’t expect the stock weight to fall below 60% often, if at all. The team is more confident in identifying market bottoms than tops."
    I am probably more guilty than my fund managers for my lower than expected equity exposure.
    Feel free to post if you noticed how any of your other funds are positioned.
    I hope @WABAC does not mind my changing the direction of this thread.
  • Credit cards and brokerages
    @YBB, tyvm for that info --- not surprising, don't know why I didn't think of it or investigate. One of my kids works in that space.
    Sila obviously give much attention to service and professionalism and prompt responsiveness and transparency, it is really something. Reassuring confidence. Precision prep and cleanup.
    We do have other local plumber groups which somehow have seemed iffier the times I have had to use them, although as I say I rely on my local regular for most things. (He has a boat and a place on the Cape, as well as residence down the road. Everyone knows the joke where the plumber fixes the neurosurgeon's undersink emergency and after 23 hard minutes says 'All set, that'll be $1841.' The neurosurgeon says 'Man, I don't think I can make $1841 in 23 minutes.' And the plumber replies, 'Neither could I when I was a neurosurgeon.')
    Sila employees are on staff and the four I have talked to by now, senior and junior, have been with the outfit for many years, 5-9 iirc. Big rigs deployed that they park at home and are fully monitored and insured and so on by the company.
    Backbreaking work some plumbing is.
    Backyard excavation starts next week.
    @Derf, septic tank and cesspool and leachout were and are fine, thanks, and did not even need the $440 inspection and pumping that Sila insisted on.
    I feel fortunate as always to be able to afford any of this, though it shoots savings and treat setasides for this and much of next year. Whatever. Not like there was a choice.
  • Harbor Disruptive Innovation Fund will be liquidated
    Harbor is also liquidating its ETF clone INNO:
    Supplement to Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 1, 2024
    Harbor ETF Trust’s Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Disruptive Innovation ETF (the “Fund”). After the close of business on December 13, 2024, subject to applicable law, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on December 16, 2024. The Fund is currently scheduled to liquidate at the close of business on or about December 19, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860434/000119312524264329/d833326d497.htm
    The management structure is something I hadn't seen before (perhaps I just wasn't paying attention). Usually when a firm contracts out subadvisors, the firm exercises oversight and the day-to-day management is executed by the subadvisors. Here, Harbor retained day-to-day management responsibilities and contracted five outside firms on a non-discretionary basis (not allowed to make trades on their own).
    Each of the Subadvisors [] provides a model portfolio to the Advisor, which the Advisor implements at its discretion with respect to a portion of the assets of the Fund. The Advisor is responsible for the day-to-day investment decision making
    Two of the subadvising firms (4BIO Capital and Tekne Capital Mgmt) quit earlier this year.
    Harbor's ETF lineup makes it look like Harbor is a company flailing, trying to figure out how to fit in with the newer ETF world. Most of its ETFs (all but two) were launched in 2021 or later and many are what I would call gimmicky: 3 Human Capital Factor ETFs (happy employees), 3 AlphaEdge ETFs, 2 Scientific Alpha, and so on.
    The poster child for disruptor innovation investing is ARKK, turning in a bottom 5% performance for this year. Unlike the Harbor funds, it retains $6.5B AUM.
    Other funds with "disrupt" in their names include:
    AB Disruptors ETF FWD (average 2023 part year performance, hot 2024)
    ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF DTEC 2*
    Fidelity Disruptors ETF FDIF 1*
    Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF FBOT 2*
    Fidelity Disruptive Communications ETF FDCF 3*
    Fidelity Disruptive Finance ETF FDFF 3*
    Fidelity Disruptive Medicine ETF FMED 2*
    Fidelity Disruptive Technology ETF FDTX 2*
    Franklin Disruptive Commerce ETF 1*
    Global X Disruptive Materials ETF DMAT(-33% cumulative over its nearly 3 years)
    GraniteShares Nasdaq Sel Disruptors ETF DRUP 3*
    Neuberger Berman Disrupters ETF NBDS (underperforming annually since Apr 2022 start)