Thank you again, @Observant1.
Everyone here should be watching these presentations; and saving them for further/future reference.
Especially important for this #39 report, IMHO; is Lesson #2 starting at the 5 minute mark, titled 'Price Targets'. A lot of time over the years and currently is spent regarding who/what to follow and/or read regarding financial thinking. The point of Lesson #2 is that those (the large, old money centers), those that one should expect to understand markets well, have problems like other 'humans', in spite of overwhelming data and 'schooling'. Somewhere here (MFO) is a write (2010 - 2012?) about about Morgan Stanley or Goldman fully getting things wrong about interest rates directions. A serious mistake.
One must be their own best student and attempt to blend whatever/whomever you choose to follow to help form one's thinking. No easy task.
A suitable topic area, for a future post.

We avoided this very issue by taking the opportunity when it was there to build a 5-yr CD ladder averaging 5+% that completely replaced our bond sleeve. In consideration of the (current high) probabilities of rate cuts in Dec, March and May, we will continue to replace maturing CDs as they fall off the ladder with the current, in our opinion, still acceptable 1-5-yr, 4+% rates.
We have looked at and are watching some of the popular ST and HY bond OEFs but are currently still Just Say(ing) No to them. No need for us at this point to add their respective risks given our ladder.

NYSE just had a moment of silence for Art. He was my financial hero and will be sorely missed by so many.
RIP Art. This Dewar's is for you!

Good point, Old Joe, that's why I am putting some of the proceeds of any maturing CDs into bond OEFs like CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX and RCTIX.
I am also putting money into two low risk market neutral funds like QQMNX (SD=7.2%) and JMNAX (SD=4.4%), and HELO, a hedged equity fund.
So far, so good. If not, I'll just pull the trigger. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
But, good luck.

Hi Fred, looks like you are back to using the same kind of bond oefs that you were using before the most recent market tumble. I am not there yet, but I do have a lot of good feelings about lower risk bond oefs like RPHIX, CBLDX, and DHEAX. I maintain a watchlist of very conservative/low risk bond oefs, but I am expecting those funds to become more volatile, than the past couple of years. But as I have said in the past, I am not a good predictor of the future, and will likely stay more conservative and risk averse, than most posters/investors on this forum

@dtconroe- good to hear from you again. We are in exactly the same situation as you describe. I recently bought a long-term Deutsche Bank bond at 5.75%, callable in two years (that MikeM found) from Schwab. However as msf mentions hoping for a call in two years may have been a bad move, since it seems likely that inflation may increase substantially under the new, improved political franchise. If that happens, we may be stuck with that bond for much longer than desirable.

I am not good at trying to predict the market, even for the near future. I expect some political turmoil in the near future, but I am not good at predicting politics either. CDs have been good for both my financial objectives, as well as my mental health, for a few years now. At my age, winning investing trophies is not important to me. My financial objectives are much more "modest"--just make enough TR to preserve principal, with as little stress as possible. I am not opposed to callable CDs, or even very low risk bond oefs like RPHIX, but not really interested in more risky investments than that. Other investors can chart the path that fits their financial objectives, and I realize that I am probably too conservative/risk averse, for most other investors/posters on this forum.

- Best All Around News + Financial Information - The Wall Street Journal
- Best for Investment Ideas / Insights - Barrons
- Best Deal Right Now - Reuters @$45 annually (monthly rate available). I found the internet site loaded with distracting story-related animations my Ad blocker couldn’t halt. But when I downloaded their free App they disappeared. Very readable.
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- Best for A Long Term Perspective - InvesTech from James Stack. Monthly newsletter assessing market valuations and comparing current dynamics to historical cycles. Stack also provides an ever-changing etf investment model for his readers depending on his outlook. I don’t follow it. Can’t say it’s been the ideal allocation for the current bull market. But his gig is “preservation first.” Price is around $200 yearly. Less with multi-year packages.
- Best for Staying Sober (not succumbing to herd psychology) - “The Daily Rap” / Veteran investor Bill Fleckenstein writes a daily column looking at the day’s action. Once or twice a week there’s some deeper insights to be had. More often just a quick summary you can find anywhere. If it it was a Dull (“nothing happened”) Day Bill will tell you that. There’s a Q&A section I sometimes enjoy more than Bill’s opines. If having pro-Trump / anti-liberal messaging occasionally inserted into the discussions bothers you, you won’t like the site. If you can read thru that stuff, there’s a lot to be learned. Price is something north of $100 yearly.
- Most Enjoyable & Insightful Listening - “The Meb Faber Show” - I have access to over 50 45-minute long interviews dating back a couple years. Delightful conversations with many financial participants including fund managers. You can dig up a few on UTube. But to get the entire pack you might need to use a podcast service.
d

Helping Investors Separate the Signal from the Noise...
00:00 Intro
00:43 Topics
01:14 7 Lessons From 2024
01:18 Lesson #1: Returns Are Lumpy
05:08 Lesson #2: Price Targets Are Pointless
10:48 Lesson #3: Embrace Panic
13:13 Lesson #4: Tune Out the Noise
16:32 Lesson #5: Diversification Is Simple, But Not Easy
19:58 Lesson #6: There Is No Impossible in Markets
23:37 Lesson #7 Time over Money
27:47 $36 Trillion in National Debt: Signal or Noise?
Video

@fred495- Thanks- I think that we're going to need it.

@dtconroe- good to hear from you again. We are in exactly the same situation as you describe. I recently bought a long-term Deutsche Bank bond at 5.75%, callable in two years (that MikeM found) from Schwab. However as msf mentions hoping for a call in two years may have been a bad move, since it seems likely that inflation may increase substantially under the new, improved political franchise. If that happens, we may be stuck with that bond for much longer than desirable.

MRFOX had a very nice November 2024, gaining +6.83%. YTD MRFOX is up 21%, beating PRWCX by nearly 6.7%.
Over the past 3 years, MRFOX beats PRWCX by over +9% annually, and by +4.4% over the 5 years ended 11-30-2024.
If anything, it's PRWCX that has slid a bit.

DT, I’ve been facing the same dilemma. The best yields I can find for call- protected CDs at Fidelity are about 4% in the 3-5 year range, and 4.2 in the 1-2 year range.Treasuries are slightly lower but more liquid. Recently I’ve been reinvesting in short-term bond funds (FCNVX, THOPX and USFR). I’ve also bought some agency bonds yielding more than 5%, but they are likely to be called if rates drop.

If you're willing to hold cash-ish (CDs in this case) for a couple of years, then why not take a closer look at RPHIX? If you wait it out a year or two, its minor volatility doesn't matter and it "always" does better than cash.
Portfolio Visualizer comparing RPHIX and cash
I believe MikeM was looking at corporate bonds, not callable CDs. Only assume that the bond will be called if it is currently trading above par. Even then, should interest rates go back up, or if the company issuing the bond should have cash flow issues, you may wind up with the bond for a longer period of time.
I just had a muni bond called that was eligible to be called a couple of years ago. For whatever reason the government entity didn't call the bond for awhile. The bond was even trading above par, so not it not getting called was a plus for me. But much of the time if a bond doesn't get called, it's because its price has dropped below par. Then you're stuck with the bond or you sell it at a loss.

Not everyone's cup of tea, but I have been getting added yield by buying "callable" bonds where the "next call date" is a year or 2 out there. I'm making the assumption a 5, 10 or even 20 year cooperate or gov. agency bond will be called at first call or some time after, while I still can get 5.5-6% until it is called.
That said, I have much more money in bond mutual funds and ETFs now versus a year ago.

Hey Mike, I have been monitoring both callable and noncallable CDs at Schwab. My focus has been on CDs in the 2 year or less range. I am not opposed to trying a callable CD but have not found those 5.5-6% callable CDs at Schwab. I will look again but am curious where you have been finding those callable CDs at those rates?

So good to hear from you @dtconroe. Was concerned about your absence. You have so much to offer when it comes to fixed income investing.
Re ” … or jumping back into the more active investing options “
A couple years older here and never been the “cash” type. But depends on a lot of personal situation factors. I’m at 7.5% in Fido’s MM fund. Take whatever they give me. The 2 “least risky” components of the larger portfolio (15.5% each) are CVSIX and LPXAX. Both should generate a percent or two over cash longer term. However, am prepared for some ocassional down years (- 3-5%) as well. And the fees tend to be higher than most want. Also, there’s been some discussion of (lower fee) JAAA as an alternative to cash - but we don’t have a firm grasp of the risk under certain adverse conditions.
Just killing some time on a nasty winter morning. Best wishes.

Hi hank, nice to hear from you. My investing choices have moved into very passive CDs in recent years. I just don't think my investing choices offer much information, that others would be interested in. My personal situation is virtually unchanged, except that I have no need to chase higher returns via active investing, with frequent buy/sell decisions. I still monitor a large number of watchlists, primarily various categories of bond oefs, but have not been inclined to invest in those bond oefs recently. I may choose to carve out a small position in a fund on my watchlist, just to stay in touch with something other than passive CD choices, so now is a time where that may be viable.

So good to hear from you @dtconroe. Was concerned about your absence. You have so much to offer when it comes to fixed income investing.
Re ” … or jumping back into the more active investing options “
A couple years older here and never been the “cash” type. But depends on a lot of personal situation factors. I’m at 7.5% in Fido’s MM fund. Take whatever they give me. The 2 “least risky” components of the larger portfolio (15.5% each) are CVSIX and LPXAX. Both should generate a percent or two over cash longer term. However, am prepared for some ocassional down years (- 3-5%) as well. And the fees tend to be higher than most want. Also, there’s been some discussion of (lower fee) JAAA as an alternative to cash - but we don’t have a firm grasp of the risk under certain adverse conditions.
Just killing some time on a nasty winter morning. Best wishes.

If your tax rate on qualified dividends is considerably less than CDs, why not consider replacing some of the maturing CDs with beaten down large-cap stocks? PFE, for example, is currently yielding ~6.65%. If you have no desire to hold individual positions there are ETFs such as those mentioned in www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/high-dividend-etfs

2-yr T-Notes are at 4.13%, 5-yr 4.07%. Why go for 3.40% CDs?

Many of my higher rate CDs are maturing. I am extending some to 3 to 5 years even if the rate is 3.40% for 3 years(the rate I am getting for one maturing today). I just turned 76 years of age. With ultra-conservative passive investing my post-retirement savings has doubled and, so far, knock on a lucky door, my non-saving, non-RMD income has exceeded my spending. (Spending, be deviled, 57% of that spending this year has been nothing but federal and property tax.) I discovered I just no longer want to chase the rates or the markets. I guess I should find some tax free stuff since anything I do seems to raise my unused dividends/interest and cost me more in taxes.
Girls just wanna have fun.

Not everyone's cup of tea, but I have been getting added yield by buying "callable" bonds where the "next call date" is a year or 2 out there. I'm making the assumption a 5, 10 or even 20 year cooperate or gov. agency bond will be called at first call or some time after, while I still can get 5.5-6% until it is called.
That said, I have much more money in bond mutual funds and ETFs now versus a year ago.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/4/24
BULLISH became the top sentiment (48.3%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.0%, low); bearish became the middle sentiment (30.7%, average); Bull-Bear Spread was +17.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget deficit, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (145+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (60+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.55% (positive). The dollar seems to be consolidated for a technical bounce. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1760/thread