Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maturing CDs

    msf, here is the key statement from my Original Thread Post regarding CDs that are maturing:
    "I am wrestling with renewing at the 4.3% rate, with almost no stress, or jumping back into the more active investing options. Anyone else in a similar situation?
    If you are a CD investor, with current CDs that are maturing, I would be interested in your response regarding your personal investing decision, about reinvesting the maturity back into CDs, or shifting to a different kind of investment.
    In one sense I'm not in a similar situation. I've been taking advantage of the inverted yield curve we've had for a few years and so I do not have bonds or CDs maturing soon. OTOH, I'm in a similar situation because I have this short term cash that has been giving me better returns but is no longer doing so.
    The return to a non-inverted yield curve was due to short term rates dropping faster than long term rates, not because long term rates rose. See M* graph here of curves for 2020 (ZIRP), Sept 2023 (highest, inverted), June 2024 (similar shape with a bit lower yield), and Sept 2024 (flat-ish, 2/3% lower, greater drop at short end)
    https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/255673/how-to-position-your-bond-portfolio-as-short-term-yields-fall.aspx
    That piece was written three months ago and M* was suggesting finally going longer (i.e. intermediate as opposed to short). I stayed short - too much uncertainty and now with "promised" tariffs, migrant expulsions (affecting labor costs), etc., rising inflation (and rising interest rates) seem far from improbable. Just the other day I heard that it will be hard to bring down food prices. Quelle surprise.
    That Sept. M* piece was written almost exactly at a minimum in 10 year Treasury rates: 3.63% on Sept 16th, currently 4.32%. A purchase of a multi-year CD or Treasury bond in Sept would have locked in a lower rate than one should be able to get now.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024
    Cash (1-2 month maturity) is still looking good and I see no reason to gamble before Feb 2025 on the direction of rate movements.
    I've given my thoughts before on places to keep cash short term. If you can get into a low cost Treasury MMF (Treas only for high income tax states), they are yielding near or more than prime MMFs (and more after-tax). Those are typically $1M min: SUTXX (4.43% SEC yield, 4.53% APY), FSIXX (4.44% SEC yield, 4.54% APY) w/$1 min at Merrill Edge. Going out a bit longer is RPHIX. Slightly longer still are AAA CLOs like PAAA (pure AAA) and JAAA (smidgen of AAs, longer history).
    JAAA acquitted itself respectfully in 2022, dropping 2.33% from Jan 1 before recovering. In comparison, floating rate ETFs like FLRN and FLOT dropped 1.34% and 1.65% respectively. They all were positive for the year, while MINT bottomed out at -2.16% from Jan 1 and lost a percent on the year.
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    Soon maybe the Bored Ape NFT's will be back. Sold for millions now worth 50-70k if you can even figure it out. A 90% decline since mid 2022 from what I can find. OUCH!! I'll waste spend my money on cars, women and beer.
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-market-investment-outlooks-wall-street-prediction-roundup-sp500-2024-12
    Excerpt:
    S&P 500 price targets
    Projected level for end-of-year 2025
    Oppenheimer
    7,100
    Wells Fargo
    7,007
    Deutsche Bank
    7,000
    Yardeni Research
    7,000
    DataTrek Research
    6,840
    Societe Generale
    6,750
    BMO
    6,700
    Bank of America
    6,666
    Fundstrat
    6,600
    Barclays
    6,600
    RBC
    6,600
    Ned Davis Research
    6,600
    CFRA
    6,585
    Morgan Stanley
    6,500
    Goldman Sachs
    6,500
    JPMorgan
    6,500
    Citi
    6,500
    UBS
    6,400
    Stifel*
    5,500
    BCA Research
    4,450
    Note: Stifel gave a prediction in the "mid-5,000s"
    Chart: Andy Kiersz/Business InsiderSource: Bloomberg
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
    https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
    efficiency! math!
    andreesen sounds like he is talking about full-faith / -credit currency
    Unbelievable set of quotes (are they real?) Well, all I can say is:
    Song: Happy Days Are Here Again
    Lyrics: Jack Yellen(1) (4) (5)
    Music: Milton Ager(2) (4) (5)
    Year: 1929(3) (5)
    Genre: Popular
    Country: USA
    Happy days are here again!
    The skies above are clear again,
    Let us sing a song of cheer again,
    Happy days are here again!
    Altogether shout it now,
    There's no one who can doubt it now,
    Let us tell the world about it now,
    Happy days are here again!
    Your cares and troubles are gone
    There'll be no more from now on!
    This song was originally posted on protestsonglyrics.net
    Happy days are here again!
    The skies above are clear again
    Let us sing a song of cheer again
    Happy days are here again!
    So long sad times, go long bad times,
    We are rid of you at last;
    Howdy gay times, cloudy gray times
    You are now a thing of the past.
    Happy days are here again!
    The skies above are clear again
    Let us sing a song of cheer again
    Happy days are here again!
    This song was originally posted on protestsonglyrics.net
    Your cares and troubles are gone
    There'll be no more from now on!
    Happy days are here again!
    The skies above are clear again
    Let us sing a song of cheer again
    Happy days are here again!
    Happy Days are Here Again Lyrics
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.

    On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!
    It’s amazing that someone of his intelligence could do so poorly over 15 years. I’m a bit of a bear myself. But there are alternatives to going “all-in” on equities. Think long / short funds, hedged equities, high yield & floating rate bonds, convertibles, multi-asset funds. Cash earned little over that period, but with compounding you’d still be quite a bit ahead of HSGFX. I’d think short-term bonds should generate positive returns (in excess of cash) with very minimal downside risk going forward now that rates have risen from abysmal lows.
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.
    On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    Tariffs would be the wild card for 2025. Major market headwind, if approved.
  • Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
    From Crash, re: 2025: Market returns will be sub-par, or at the low end of average. Bonds might be just as attractive as equities. The economy is balancing on a colossal mountain of gummint debt. Tax breaks, or extended tax breaks for those who need it least, will only add to the perversion.
  • YBB’s weekly Barron’s summaries
    Japan Govt debt may be 150% of GDP but what counts is how much of it is owned by the Japanese, especially its own central bank.
    I thought the following was interesting:
    “OTHER VOICES. Jenny JOHNSON, President & CEO of Franklin Templeton. AI hype will come to an end and a period of pessimism will follow. Such up and down cycles are normal for new technologies. Early and fast adopters may not be the eventual leaders. The profitless AI capex has to be digested. Look for AI beneficiaries in enterprise software, data analytics, customer service, finance, healthcare, collaborative work, picks and shovels (chipmakers, cloud hosts, data centers).”
    How did Franklin growth or value funds perform during 2023 and 2024, the current AI boom period. Just checking if her comments were colored by the performance of her funds.
    I used to think business leaders are intellectually honest (I know I was naive). The latest one that killed my optimism about that breed is Howard Lutnick. He had his strategists parade for two years telling us how the economy is going to be bad and that the stock market was about to crash / correct. It turned out he was a Trump bum licker and massively politically biased. I feel sorry for all the opportunity cost he caused for investors who listened to him and his minions who of course will benefit either way.
    If you ever felt Howard Lutnick’s qualifications were deficient to become Commerce Sec, you were missing this piece of info -
    https://www.ft.com/content/73ef7b34-3969-4466-993e-0d1d24ef434a
  • The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
    I just got done grading my 25 graduate capstone papers, coincidentally .... ergo, scotch awaits!
    (And good call on infrastructure investing; it's been a large part of my portfolio for years.)
  • donuts all around, provided by those who missed this: WBALX and PRFDX
    Noticed the huge drop?
    To the extent that M* can be trusted about this:
    WBALX paid for Dec., yesterday: $0.6875 cents/share.
    PRFDX pays today: $2.5597 per share.
  • Next admin looking to kill FDIC, OCC, and other bank regulators.

    Per WSJ...
    "The Trump transition team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate the top bank watchdogs in Washington.
    In recent interviews with potential nominees to lead bank regulatory agencies, Trump advisers and officials from his newfound Department of Government Efficiency have, for example, asked whether the president-elect could abolish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., people familiar with the matter said.
    Advisers have asked the nominees under consideration for the FDIC, as well as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, if deposit insurance could then be absorbed into the Treasury Department, some of the people said."

    Gift link from the WSJ, free for all:
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/trump-advisers-bank-regulations-fdic-efa761dc?st=5QeEfJ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
    ... if, if, IF this ever happens, I'd expect the next financial crisis will make 1929 look like a quaint fun-filled tea party....
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
    https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
    efficiency! math!
    andreesen sounds like he is talking about full-faith / -credit currency
  • Morningstar Discussions Chaos
    I’ve been forgetting who I am ever since I turned 75. Maybe I’ll take a look.
    Thanks for the heads-up Yogi. I don’t post or read financial discussion boards anywhere else. Something similar happened at Amazon years ago where real names became attached to the product reviews. By going into profile settings it was possible to re-set things and revert back to the user names.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bump up.
    Any takers here for KSS, currently priced at $14 and yielding 14% dividend?

    90% payout ratio and unsteady track of divs in recent years .... not for me.

    Deep value investor is a different breed, most of us here do not belong to. With those metrics it could be attractive if it had a Moat but in the space it is in and high interest rates, it is probably sleep walking into a graveyard.
    If you guys remember, a couple of years ago, there was a take private offer at $55 a KSS share and the Board thumbed its nose at the bidder. There are a lot of Boards in the US that belong in North Korea.
    I don't recall that, just offering a quick-take on the question. (I don't play in the retail space beyond consumer staples, sorry)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bump up.
    Any takers here for KSS, currently priced at $14 and yielding 14% dividend?

    90% payout ratio and unsteady track of divs in recent years .... not for me.
    Deep value investor is a different breed, most of us here do not belong to. With those metrics it could be attractive if it had a Moat but in the space it is in and high interest rates, it is probably sleep walking into a graveyard.
    If you guys remember, a couple of years ago, there was a take private offer at $55 a KSS share and the Board thumbed its nose at the bidder. There are a lot of Boards in the US that belong in North Korea.
  • AI is Coming For Your Fund Manager
    @FD1000- Thank you for once again reminding us what a fantastic genius you are. With all of the other important stuff that we have to keep track of we sometimes lose track of what you and your fantastic genius are up to. Hoping to hear more about you and your fantastic genius in the future!
    It’s hard to be humble.
  • AI is Coming For Your Fund Manager
    CPI +2.7%, core +3.3%, both in line with expectations (Wednesday)
    PPI +3.0%, core +3.5%, both above expectations (today, Thursday)
    Remember that PPI is based on wholesale prices and when those are rising, the next CPI readings (based on retail prices) may also be higher.
    This doesn't look good for progress towards +2% average inflation target.
    The next PCE release is on Friday, 12/20/24, a couple of days AFTER the FOMC Statement & Powell's presser next week.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/11/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/11/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (43.3%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.0%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (31.7%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +11.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget deficit, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (146+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (61+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 58.21% (positive). With several ECB rate cuts ahead, the dollar should remain stronger for longer. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1767/thread