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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    "EM firms have funneled the dough into the hands of corrupt officials, founding families, and antidemocratic governments."
    Sounding more and more American as time goes on...count me in. I've been invested in Rajiv Jain's GSIHX since September 2018 and established a position in their EM fund last year, GQGIX. It's ~55% India and Brazil which I favor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    EM? Ideal for small speculative positions. You can even hone in on specific areas like Latin America, Africa, Middle East. The trick is knowing when to get in (generally when things can’t get any worse) and when to get out (ie: just before Putin invades some small area country). Like @MikeM said - you reach an age where such speculative excursions no longer appeal.
    To the broader question - Many international or global funds have small positions in EM. This exposure should be identifiable in the firm’s documents or by using M* or other analytics. That’s a much safer, less speculative way to get some exposure. Were I inclined to own a diversified global / international stock fund, I’d be comfortable with it if it limited EM to perhaps 20% of portfolio.
    I found a 2017 M* (UK) article that sheds some light on the broader issue.
    (excerpt) “For most global equity funds that invest directly in emerging markets, the allocation typically doesn’t rise above 5%. Just a handful of funds invest a significant portion of their assets in developing countries, with direct exposures exceeding 20% as per the end of March 2017.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?

    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
    In another thread, you've mentioned Rajiv Jain and GSIHX. Be aware that it holds about ~25% EM country equities. Much lower than his EM fund though.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Before I was blocked from reading it further, I think I saw the OP linked article state EMs have the best growth opportunities over the next 5-10 years, and if it doesn't all start now, it will within the next 1-2 years. Say what? Not quite the ringing endorsement I'd need to jump off the EM plank!
    Anyone considering EMs needs to study the Callan Chart (below), and unless they are the amongst the world's best market timers, think again, and Just Say No!
    Click on the 2023 PDF Chart at
    https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    BTW, many broadly diversified foreign funds have stakes in EM stocks ranging from 5-20%. That’s plenty enough for me.
  • February MFO is Live
    MFO, February 2024 https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/february-2024/
    In reading through, I had some random observations.
    Re @lynnbolin2021, 60-40 was never dead. It was just dormant or in hibernation for a while. The entire fund universe has an allocation (the ICI data posted on MFO monthly),
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.11%, Hybrids 4.72%, Bonds 18.57%, M-Mkt 17.60%,
    So, for many, 60-40, or some variation (including alternatives), is fine. But others use DIY and that is fine too. Surprisingly, I have seen some pieces with stock-bond-Bitcoin mix - had to happen after the reluctant approval by the SEC (under a court threat) of several Bitcoin ETFs.
    Re @TheShadow, Hartford International HAOYX was dropped from Schwab DAF and replaced by MFS MIEKX. so, HAOYX is reopening, no surprise - it needs money.
    Re @David_Snowball #8, "Black Americans are becoming stock investors in record numbers."
    TIAA recently partnered with Wyclef Jean to try the "Rap Approach" to investing. Will it catch on? Those on Facebook can check Facebook LINK.
  • January MFO is live
    Thank you, @Hank, for the kind words. This month, in "Patriotic Millionaires and the Uncertainty of Taxes", I show that the rich borrow and invest the money in stocks much as you described in ”New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)”. The tax system allows the rich to withdraw their money at the lower capital gains rate which are not incurred until the stock is sold, and the "Stepped Up" basis benefits heirs.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/patriotic-millionaires-and-the-uncertainty-of-taxes/
    Those of us not in the "rich" category can still benefit. I have about 15% of my portfolio in after-tax accounts in a long-term investment bucket. In "No, The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead", I show that stock valuations are high so now is a good time to be more conservative.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/no-the-60-40-portfolio-is-not-dead/
    When valuations fall in the next one to three years, I plan on increasing the allocations to stocks in these after-tax accounts to maybe even 100% to take advantage of the lower capital gains that are not occurred until the stock is sold. I will use a variable withdrawal strategy to withdraw extra from Traditional IRAs (Bucket #2) when market conditions are favorable and put the funds in a short-term Bucket for living expenses for when market conditions are unfavorable.
    My article last month did not include taxes in some of the analysis. Having pensions and Social Security allows me to be less dependent upon withdrawing from savings. I will be adjusting my strategy based in part on the thoughtful insights in the MFO Discussion Board, and the research behind these articles.
  • 3 more Matthews Portfolio Managers exit
    Yup. Here is the article:
    Matthews Asia’s Pacific equity fund under review as veteran exits
    Flurry of fund-manager switches continues, with Sharat Shroff to leave by the end of the year, while EM and Japan equity managers also depart.
    Updated: Sharat Shroff will be added to Matthews Asia’s ever-expanding list of manager changes as the veteran Asian equity investor aims to leave the US-based boutique at the end of the year.
    Shroff, who joined the firm in 2005, is to formally exit at the end of this month, relinquishing roles across several strategies, most prominently the Matthews Pacific Tiger fund.
    Shroff was relieved of his role on the Matthews Asia ex Japan Total Return Equity fund at the start of the month, with newly added chief investment officer (CIO) Sean Taylor stepping in.
    It is understood Taylor, who formally becomes CIO next month but has been with the group since October, will take over as lead manager of the Pacific Tiger fund, with Inbok Song becoming co-lead.
    Andrew Mattock and Winnie Chwang will remain in situ as co-portfolio managers. At the same time, Matthews Asia will deepen the investment talent with emerging markets specialist Jeremy Sutch and Indian equity manager Peeyush Mittal also named as co-portfolio managers.
    The Matthews Asia Pacific Tiger fund is underperforming in its peer group, with a three-year total loss of 21.9% in US dollar terms to the end of November 2023. This is while the average fund in the Equity - Asia Pacific ex Japan sector fell 17% over the same period.
    The latest change regarding the Pacific Tiger fund, which has $276m (£217.5m) in its Ucits-compliant version and $2.35bn in its US vehicle, has prompted Morningstar to place the strategy under review.
    In an analyst note, Morningstar’s Bill Rocco wrote: ‘That’s an exceptional amount of personnel change, and this strategy’s restructured team could lead to modest or even significant modifications to its process or portfolio. Consequently, this strategy has been put under review.’
    Speaking to Citywire Selector last week, Cooper Abbott, CIO of Matthews Asia, delved into the widespread changes he has enacted since taking over in the summer of 2022. As well as tweaking and closing several funds, it’s also involved a huge amount of portfolio manager changes.
    One of the most prominent ones was the decision of Robert Horrocks to step down as CIO, with former DWS emerging markets chief Taylor being recruited to take over. Abbott said his emphasis would be on quality and experience, which has led to more teams-based investment approaches.
    A spokesperson for Matthews Asia told Citywire Selector: ‘Sharat has decided to leave the firm effective 31 December to pursue other opportunities. He will continue to partner with the portfolio management team on the transition of the portfolio.’
    Update: Further exits
    A spokesperson confirmed to Citywire Selector that, in addition to Shroff’s planned departure, emerging markets manager John Paul Lech and Japan specialist Taizo Ishida left the company on 19 December.
    Lech had been with the company since 2018, while Ishida had been with Matthews Asia since 2006.
    Speaking to Citywire Selector regarding these most recent changes, Cooper Abbott said: ‘Since my arrival at Matthews, we have made some changes, all with the goal of improving investment results for our clients.
    ‘A strong investment culture seeks to continually strengthen investment focus and outcomes. That is what we are doing.
    ‘Recent investment personnel terminations are testament to Matthews’ dedication to investment results, making changes where they are necessary to drive long-term alpha.
    ‘Matthews has exceptionally deep investment talent. We pride ourselves on delivering excellent investment results and high-quality client experiences... and will continue to deliver upon this goal.’
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    What are people's views on Emerging Markets for the next 5 years? Lazard and AQR are very bullish. Is it always a tough sell with the BATNA being the S&P500/magnificent 7?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/quant-fund-aqr-doubles-down-on-bullish-call-for-emerging-markets?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
  • GMO: the quality anomaly
    There was an argument in M* that moat is better than quality. And indeed, MOAT beats FUQIX, QUAL since its inception, though FUQIX is better during last 5 years, and especially during the last year: MOAT does not contain any of Mag 7 companies.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    "After all these years of doing this" (thanks Jimmy Buffett, RIP) easily the best (looking and potential upside) portfolio we've ever had.
    SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
    80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
    Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said,
    "Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    Could biotech be like international, emerging markets, or small caps, where active management and/or single stock picks may work better than a shotgun approach or buying a wide swath (with most funds weighing them by market cap, so performance would be heavily skewed towards matching AMGNs, BIIBs, etc., similarly to how the S&P is heavily skewed to the top 10 market weight stocks)?
    Also, there’s a difference between finding the next $5 to $100 pre-approval biotech stock, and investing in those that have established products and a good pipeline (AMGN, VRTX, ARGX, AXSM are some that I hold/have held).
    FBIOX had a great performance track record until probably the pandemic….it had access to some privately held companies due to its size. The TRP healthcare fund was always heavily in biotech in the 2000’s-2010’s.
    Maybe biotech is similar to “disruptor tech.” The science and ideas behind them are cool, but more money is lost looking for the next big things than for waiting for the science/medicine/tech to become established and for companies to starting earning revenues (or better yet, profits) from them. I got burned by the disruptor/innovation ideas by buying in mid-to-late 2021, after so many stocks (and ARK funds) skyrocketed, only to crash and burn in ‘22 (appropriately so, in most cases).
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
    Old proverb - “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Really depends on your age and risk tolerance.
    I’m experimenting with balancing out my single stock holding with a short-term bond ETF to control volatility. Both are at 5% of portfolio. If the stock rises sharply $$ is moved into the bond fund to balance things out. If the stock falls sharply $$ moves the other way and back into the stock. Went to this approach around the end of ‘23. Seems to work as planned. Couple mornings ago the stock fell 10% right out of the gate and I was able to move some money into it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    GSIHX (stillers corrected for quoted poster) is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
    May explain a lot of recent out performance
    May, yeah.
    10%-20% Domestic is however not uncommon in FLG funds. See SSIFX, a worthy competitor in the category with ~16% (and 9% Novo). Meanwhile, BUFIX currently has 8% Domestic.
    But you'd have to look back at its holdings and its competitors for the past 3+ years as it has outperformed its peers regularly, starting in 2021:
    Year_Rank in Category
    2021 30
    2022 2
    2023 7
    2024 2
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
    Keep it (let your winners run) IMHO... I've been reading lately AI is still in it's infancy and NVDA could continue to skyrocket BUT don't blame me if it doesn't. ;^) I don't like stop loss limit orders but if it gets WAY above your sell price set a stop loss limit order at your sell price.
  • Best Biotech Fund?
    In your initial example, the person hypothetically tipping an outsider "of course ... could not share the news ... until it was publicly available." Regarding the tippee, "Unless [the tippee] knew someone and got inside information, it would have been hard to take advantage of it before the news hit."
    With that fact pattern, the tippee here would have known that the information conveyed was inside information (the exact words in the hypothesis). But even if not, they should have figured that out.
    In your later example, urologists are gleaning low grade information about the progress of a clinical trial from examining their patients. I agree that the connection of that information to the sponsor may be tenuous. Though there is the argument that the information is still confidential due to the doctor/patient relationship. See:
    Insider Trading in the Clinical Trial Setting (2022 preprint)
    2023 version:
    I disagree with the inference that the low quality of the data (small sample size, unknown whether placebo was used, unknown side effects) rendered the information immaterial. By assumption, "a lot of urologists and their friends and family" traded on this information. From a securities perspective, that would make the information material.
    Finally, it's hard to disagree with the fact that most people trading on such information wouldn't be charged, let alone convicted. That still doesn't make it legal or proper.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    Total nut is grown 0.3%.
    FMSDX up a half percent, while all else --- BSV, CCOR (what a goddamn dog), BND, VGIT, STIP --- is barely flat or down over a percent, ffs.
    JQUA, which I do not have nearly enough of, up 4.7%.
    SP500 up 4%, of course.
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    Among my funds only:
    PRWCX leads.
    BRUFX fell to the bottom of the pile in '23, but is positive now, in early '24, by just a fraction.
    But junk bond fund TUHYX is doing even better than BRUFX.
    Of course, just after I got into FALN, it fell.
    Fund Managers have got my money positioned this way, in aggregate now:
    Cash 7
    US stocks 48
    Foreign stocks 5
    Bonds 37
    "other" 3
    (Strange: The FALN divs. are noted at the 1st of the month as per Morglestar, but brokerage TRP shows that they will be credited on the 7th of the month. Games....)
    Looks like the particular problem I noted with performance numbers appearing "stuck" at a specific number for some select stocks I own has been remedied, over at Moozlestar.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers
    GSHIX is 17% US and 6% Novo Nordsik and 5% NVDA 2% META and 2% TSCM
    May explain a lot of recent out performance
  • YTD - how is your portfolio doing
    I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.