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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 30 year treasury
    A 30-yr zero will have a duration of 30 years, 30-yr T-Bonds less due to coupon payments.
    If like to lock in some at current yield (4.76%) without reinvestment risk, look at 30-yr Treasury Zero-Coupon. It may cost about $25 for $100 par in 30 yrs.
  • 30 year treasury
    I'm aware I would need to keep a focused eye in order to avoid a buzz cut!
    For sure. You’d be safer I think laying a wager at DraftKings on something. And wouldn’t need to wait 30 years to find out if you were right or wrong. However, if the current yield looks good to you and you are willing to wait 30 years you will earn the current rate of interest and not lose a penny of principal.
    Maybe buy a magic genie first and ask it what inflation will average between now and 2055? Then at least you’d know if the current payout is worth it. As Yogi suggested, at 30 years duration you’d be whipsawed up and down as rates fluctuated. Even intermediate duration bond funds (like SNIDX) normally keep average portfolio duration at 10 years or less.
    I’d agree with Derf that a 30 year bond would make a great trading vehicle for someone trying to game the bond market. But they better know what they’re doing.
  • Parnassus Core Select and Parnassus Value Select ETFs are in registration
    FYI the major holdings of PRCS (Parnassus Core Select ETF) line up fairly well vs its flagship PRBLX/PRILX. Sure, while .58 may be high for an ETF, it's better than .82 for PRBLX, at least you will get daily visibility into its holdings vs only monthly for the OEF.
    It will be interesting to see how it tracks compared to CGDV which I'm kicking myself for not jumping into back when it was in the upper 20s.
  • Parnassus Core Select and Parnassus Value Select ETFs are in registration
    Not sure the three basis point discount compared to the OEF is going to attract much attention.
    The way I am reading the information is that the difference between the ETF and the regular fund is 25 basis points. That combined with intra-day liquidity seems to warrant a serious look if one was already interested in the regular fund.
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    IBIT is at #35 among the top 100 ETFs by AUM. It started just in 01/2024. Surprising that GBTC (with very high ER) is #100.
    https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case
    https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto
    Bitcoin was designed to be a currency that people could use for trustless transactions—transactions that could be carried out without need for a financial intermediary such as a bank. But transactions in which bitcoin is used to buy or sell goods and services make up only a tiny fraction of the currency’s total trading volume, most of which is made up of people buying or selling bitcoin itself.
    ...
    [B]itcoin was designed to facilitate decentralized person-to-person transactions, but most bitcoin trading, at least in the West, now takes place on centralized exchanges. Again, in its liberatory promise, bitcoin was supposed to not just be independent of traditional financial institutions and government, but also enable alternatives to them. Yet the big engine of the price boom of the past two years has been bitcoin’s integration into the conventional investment industry (through such vehicles as exchange-traded funds, or ETFs), increased purchases by institutional investors and corporations, and now the prospect of legitimization by the government itself.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/how-bitcoin-became-boring/681141/
    image
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    The SP500 is used much more because it's just a better wider index period. You can go with VTI which is wider than VOO, but they are pretty close.
    There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett said it many times too.
  • Maturing CDs
    I made a lengthy post this morning regarding callable CDs. If anyone is interested in responding to that, I would appreciate it.
    I've had a CD ladder for about 12-13 years. I am 100% against callable CDs. They just don't fit our strategy as callable CDs beg for constant maintenance due to their inherent duration uncertainties.
    I have suggested the following strategy to you a few times over the past year or so but you always seem to reject it. I'll try it one more time:
    Buy 5-yr, CP CDs at the highest rate you can get and be happy.
    Currently you can BUY 5-yr, CP, Fido, Secondary Issue CDs with Effective Yields (after discount) of just under 4.3%.
    Had you followed my suggestion over a year ago, you would now have a 4-5-yr, CP CD ladder making over 5%, you would NOT be dealing with constant maintenance of your fixed income portfolio, and you would very likely have more income over that 5-yr period than the option you chose. (You got maybe 5.5% for one year, but now you're likely to get, on average, under 4% for the next 4 years, while I'm getting over 5% for the entire, same 5-years period)
    You may not of course. You may have a little less.
    BUT, you would have saved all the time and angst that was effectively wasted on fixed income portfolio maintenance. And that time is critical to us for (1) enjoying life and (2) spending it more productively on the portion of our portfolio that really matters, our stock sleeve.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/25/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/25/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (37.8%, average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (28.0%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (34.1%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +3.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (148+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (63+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 32.72% (negative). DC budget fight(s) shift to 2025. SSA WEP & GPO repealed. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1794/thread
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Good idea... then charge Greenlanders any time they move from one part of the park to another. Or maybe even put up tall metal fences to keep them from moving around at all.
    And we can make Greenland pay for the fence....just we did with Mexic...uh...wait a sec...
    @Art, excellent idea, would you like to start the 2025 thread?
    Maybe a little late in the cycle, but kicking off positions in SHYG and CLOZ.
    Weighing INPFX vs. WBALX, will add to one or both.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    How about a new thread for buy/sell for 2025?
  • Maturing CDs
    msf said:
    People may not have noticed that muni MMFs have been soaring of late, especially NY. Schwab's $1M min version, SNYXX, has a 7 day yield of 3.49% (APY 3.56%), its retail version, SWYXX has a 3.34% yield (APY 3.40%), and Fidelity's $25K min version FSNXX is at 3.28% (3.33% APY). That 3.3% is worth about 4.8% APY in a CD for someone in NYC in the 22% tax bracket. And its yield is rising.
    I follow the SIFMA Municipal Swap Index Yield, which is calculated and published Wednesday afternoons. Because of the holiday, that did not occur today, but will tomorrow. The yield on muni money market funds follow this yield. Here is the past 5 weeks and as you can see, the yield is all over the place. For reasons that I do not understand, the line on the chart has been serpentine for as long as I have been watching it, which has been a few years.
    11-20 3.18
    11-27 2.86
    12-4 2.15
    12-11 2.91
    12-18 3.60
    Below are recent yields for VMSXX and SWOXX and again, they follow the weekly SIFMA Municipal Swap Index Yield. We will see what tomorrow brings.
    11-19 3.38% 3.29%
    11-20 3.41% 3.30%
    11-21 3.33% 3.22%
    11-22 3.14% 3.07%
    11-25 3.09% 3.03%
    11-26 3.03% 2.99%
    11-27 3.00% 2.97%
    11-29 2.90% 2.91%
    12-2 2.85% 2.87%
    12-3 2.79% 2.81%
    12-4 2.70% 2.72%
    12-5 2.55% 2.59%
    12-6 2.17% 2.23%
    12-9 2.07% 2.11%
    12-10 1.99% 2.07%
    12-11 1.99% 2.08%
    12-12 2.13% 2.20%
    12-13 2.58% 2.61%
    12-16 2.72% 2.74%
    12-17 2.83% 2.84%
    12-18 2.95% 2.94%
    12-19 3.05% 3.03%
    12-20 3.32% 3.25%
    12-21 3.42% 3.33%
    12-24 3.59% 3.49%
  • Maturing CDs
    Thanks msf! I have a CD in my IRA account maturing in a few days. I am tempted to reinvest it in 2 year callable CD, treating it like a 6 month noncallable CD. If it is called, I think I will still be able to get a 4% replacement callable CD, and if it is not called then I am fine with that callable rate for the length of the CD.
    Regarding MMs, I am expecting all categories of MMs to fall below 4% in 2025--I will continue holding MMs but may reduce the amount I will keep in them.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Purchased 4 and 5-yr treasuries on the secondary market (~4.4x%) in taxable account on Tuesday.
  • Maturing CDs
    I made a lengthy post this morning regarding callable CDs. If anyone is interested in responding to that, I would appreciate it.
    Hey, it takes time to compose :-) Done.
    At Schwab, major banks are offering long term callable CDs (18 month, 2 year, 3 year) of 4.4 and 4.5%, with the first callable date in July of 25. That tells me, I can get the equivalent of .3 to .4% more than a noncallable 6 month CD at Schwab. If the Bank does NOT call it in July of 25, you will continue to receive the 4.4 to 4.5% interest rate until they do call it.
    For callable CDs at Schwab, major banks are offering 4% long term rates, so the Banks appear somewhat confident that interest rates will not drop below 4% for the next few years? I don't understand Banks offering callable CDs at these rates, if CD rates were expected to continue their rapid decline of the past year, as some posters are projecting?
    One way to think of callable CDs is not as 2 year loans with a call option exercisable in 6 months but as 6 month loans (to the bank) with a put option held by the bank (on a 1.5 year loan) exercisable in 6 months. IOW, the bank is paying you about 1/4% extra interest over six months in order to have the option to "force" you to loan them money at a predetermined rate (say, 4.5%).
    The bank is betting that mid-to-long term interest rates will go up, and it is willing to pay you a sweetener on a 6 month CD in order to lock in that 4.5% rate. Banks aren't always right, though one should look carefully before betting against them.
    Regarding 10 year rates, Schwab writes:
    With the potential for fewer Fed rate cuts and a higher deficit to fund, investors could reasonably demand more yield to compensate for those risks. A return to the average of the historical range could add as much as another 50 basis points to 10-year Treasury yields, all else being equal. That would mean an estimate for 10-year yields of near 5%. Hence, we are cautious about duration because the risks for long-term yields appear skewed to the upside.
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fixed-income-outlook (Dec 4)
    Everyone expects "cash" (fed funds rate) to drop 25-50 basis points. What happens with rates for periods between 0-years and 10-years may be up for grabs. If they drop, buying a callable CD may leave you with the added "sweetener" and a reinvestment task in six months. (The CD gets called.) If these rates rise, there will be an opportunity cost (you're "stuck" at 4.5%). But that's okay if you're satisfied with the rate.
    Here's an interesting way to hedge your bets at a cost of course. You can lock in a 4.21% APY for a year where you (not the bank) control what happens - you can add money (no limit) if rates decline, or withdraw money (up to two withdrawals).
    Credit Human (an NCUA insured credit union) is offering a Liquid Share Certificate with those terms.
    Does any of this matter? Not a lot, not really. One can slice and dice the risk between lender and bank in a variety of ways and with a range of costs ("sweeteners"). But in the next year or so, it may not make a whole lot of difference. That is, the variations are endless, but the risks and rewards being moved around may turn out to be relatively small.
    (Credit Human also offers 19-23 month CDs with APY of 4.4% without call risk.)
    Personally, I'm content leaving cash in MMFs (or very short T-bills) for a couple of months to see how the markets shake out after Jan 20th.
    People may not have noticed that muni MMFs have been soaring of late, especially NY. Schwab's $1M min version, SNYXX, has a 7 day yield of 3.49% (APY 3.56%), its retail version, SWYXX has a 3.34% yield (APY 3.40%), and Fidelity's $25K min version FSNXX is at 3.28% (3.33% APY). That 3.3% is worth about 4.8% APY in a CD for someone in NYC in the 22% tax bracket. And its yield is rising.
    Play the game, add a small amount of return and more stress. Settle on a fixed rate for a few months or a couple of years, and relax more. If you're not into the hunt, the latter may be the better path.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
    One definitely needs to balance performance with opportunity costs. When I made that calculation, it was worthwhile for me to invest in MYGAs (Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities) with guaranteed annual returns of 6%, 6.35%, and 6.5% for three, seven, and five years, respectively. Unless I withdraw funds from them, the returns are also tax-deferred which allows me to plan withdrawals or let them ride to maturity as suits my situation.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
    FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing CD investors, deciding what those particular investors will do with their maturing CDs, not directed toward investors who will never hold CDs. If you want to "convert" the rest of us CD sinners, you will do it without restraint on this thread.
  • Maturing CDs
    The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
    Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
    If the above is correct, I prefer to be in bonds and make just 6%.
    Someone in 20/80 (stocks/bonds), can have similar performance to 50/50, but with much lower volatility.
  • Maturing CDs
    I thought I would revisit the option of Callable CDs, what Banks are communicating about CD rates, and the merits of including them in your CD investment selections. At Schwab, major banks are offering long term callable CDs (18 month, 2 year, 3 year) of 4.4 and 4.5%, with the first callable date in July of 25. That tells me, I can get the equivalent of .3 to .4% more than a noncallable 6 month CD at Schwab. If the Bank does NOT call it in July of 25, you will continue to receive the 4.4 to 4.5% interest rate until they do call it.
    For noncallable CDs at Schwab, major banks are offering 4% long term rates, so the Banks appear somewhat confident that interest rates will not drop below 4% for the next few years? I don't understand Banks offering callable CDs at these rates, if CD rates were expected to continue their rapid decline of the past year, as some posters are projecting?
    So I am revisiting my position of "only" using noncallable CDs, and the risk/rewards of investing in higher rate Callable CDs, at a rate that you can only depend on for the next 6 months, but you may end up getting that higher rate for a longer period of time at the higher rate. I am taking the Feds statements that the rapid reduction of interest rates that we have seen in 2024, will likely not continue in 2025, and we may not see any interest rate declines in 2025.
  • Maturing CDs
    An insurer can "fail" without ever being insolvent.
    Never underestimate the ignorance of the investing public.
    In 1991, Executive Life Insurance Company of New York (ELNY), the stressed but solvent subsidiary of its insolvent parent, Executive Life Insurance Company of California, was placed in rehabilitation in New York to protect it from cash surrenders becoming “a run on the bank.”
    ...
    When ELNY’s parent was placed in receivership in California, the New York Insurance Department determined that an “increase in surrenders had caused a material erosion of ELNY’s assets to the detriment of policyholders with nonsurrenderable policies, primarily structured settlement annuities.” As a result, New York’s Superintendent of Insurance sought and obtained an order of rehabilitation in April 1991
    https://www.pbnylaw.com/articles/THE TROUBLE WITH ELNY.pdf
    It may not have been a "run", perhaps more of a fast walk, but investors spooked by problems with the parent company created a problem with ELNY that otherwise wouldn't have existed.
    New York State regulates insurers more stringently than does the rest of the country. Insurers' investments can't be as risky, capital requirements are higher, and so on. This is the reason why you often see insurers operate in 49 states with a separate subsidiary in New York. Insurance companies don't want to be held to New York's higher safety standards in the rest of the country.
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/253661 (Login via library/school required)
    As far as the deferred annuities were concerned,
    A year later, in March 1992, ... ELNY’s traditional whole life, term life and deferred annuity books of business were transferred to Metropolitan Life Insurance Company with substantially all the supporting statutory reserve assets. ... Neither the 1991 rehabilitation order or the 1992 order approving the rehabilitation plan declared ELNY to be insolvent.