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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/every-major-wall-street-analysts-151341739.html
Click on "Story Continues" to see full chart of predictions that I've been unable to Copy/Paste here.
Very interesting prediction by Giroux.
The author continues, this signal doesn't work well with the NADAQ A-D Line:The reason why analysts pay so much attention to breadth indicators like the A-D Line is that most times they will do whatever prices do, but sometimes they give a different answer. And that difference can be important. Big-cap price indices like the SP500 are dominated by a handful of large issues, where as the A-D Line is more egalitarian. Every issue gets an equal vote.
When liquidity starts to become a problem, it tends to affect the smaller and weaker issues first, before eventually coming around to bite the rest of the market. So watching to see what all of the issues are doing as opposed to the currently fashionable large stocks can tell us about the health of the liquidity stream. That is why the NYSE's A-D Line is one of my favorite indicators, to get that message about liquidity.
https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/nyse_a-d_line_divergence/I recommend that people do not follow the Nasdaq's A-D Line, because it has an inherent negative bias. It has never once made a new all-time high, and tends to drift lower because of the easier listing standards on the Nasdaq. If a company is going to IPO then go broke, it is more likely to do that on the Nasdaq, and it will contribute to the Declines column every day it goes down from its IPO price to zero. This makes the Nasdaq's A-D Line unreliable as an indicator, and it is currently close to making a new all-time low. It does that a lot.
But the NYSE's A-D Line has worked well for decades, and it still appears to be working well. Right now, it is giving us a bearish warning message. The market is not necessarily obligated to comply with that message, and the bearish message could go away if breadth numbers suddenly start coming in stronger. But for now it is a big warning of trouble.
It's just over 50% non-US. I have started a small holding in the taxable, but I wonder how the tariff thing will work out. Might be more buying opportunities ahead.GRID has been strong lately, perhaps related to comment above about AI needing more electricity.
link:Not too long ago, Wall Street assumed that the Federal Reserve would be slashing interest rates this year. That may not be the case. The Fed meets again next week, and you can forget about any rate cuts coming. The futures market currently thinks there’s a 0.5% chance of an interest rate cut. I think that’s about 0.49% too high, but that’s only a guess.
For the meeting after that, coming in March, futures traders think there’s only a 26% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates. Traders don’t see a cut coming at the May meeting, either. They think the first cut will come in the middle of June.
Remarkably, that’s the only Fed interest rate cut that traders expect all year. This is a huge change in sentiment from just a few weeks ago. If earnings continue to grow as they are now, what’s the point of cutting rates?
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