GDX (PM miner funds) as a momentum "play" I define positive momentum as persistent upward movement above a trendline over short, medium and long time frames. The charts below shows GDX over two time frames (long = 7 years) and (short =3 months). By charting and setting some rules I am trying to accept a certain amount of volatility over the short term while trying to capture a short term upward movement spike. For GDX these short term spikes tend to be 20 -30%. The first chart show a number of these periodic short spikes. Regardless to the direction of the long term trend (up or down) these short term spike seem to consistently exist.
My short term rules are:
1. I entry the investment after a "higher lows" trend has been established (I try to confirm this with
5-10 days of data).
2. Any 10% gain is captured as a gain and invested elsewhere.
3. A 10% drop from any rolling new high is a trigger to end the short term investment.
4. I re-entry the investment after a new "higher low" trend has been re-established (again, I try to confirm this with
5-10 days of data).
Here GDX's long term chart showing these many short term "spikes" (a 20-30% movement in these short spikes).

Here's the last three months (2
5% upward spike movement). Over the short term, GDX has been making "higher lows" in a pretty consistent manner. You can see it has bounced off the trend line I've drawn a number of times over the last 3 months. This week it is testing the short term trend line again and actually seems to have broken through. I am using GDX's price of $2
5 (which is 10% below its rolling high price of $27.73) as a potential trigger point to close out this momentum play. If it bouces up above the trendline I would be encouraged to hold this position. I'll see how this works out by weeks end.
I would be interested in hearing from others who use a momentum strategy for all or part of your investments (speculations).

Best 5 YTD. What are your? I believe the thread with the confusing title was intended as YOUR best 5 funds YTD, not the best funds over the last 5 years. Just one of those forum feel-good pastimes not meant to be taken seriously as fund recommendation.
DLN or VIG I could always invest in Vanguards fund VDIGX but with my brokerage account its not a NTF so I'd be hit with a $50 fee anytime I invested more. I dunno....I'm just kicking some ideas around. I never really considered an ETF before but with 10-15K to invest maybe it's not a bad idea. Maybe DLN's tax bill wouldn't be as bad as I initially thought.
DLN or VIG Thanks guys. It would be approx. 10-15K. It's not for income. I'd reivest all dividends at some point each year. It's just a way to invest in high quality US multinationals. Companies that for the most part I know, I understand, and feel comfortable with. The companies that each of these ETF's invest in seem to hold up better in down markets than most.
Fun with math; or am I too tired....??? @jlev is right. It is the curse of small numbers.
In any case, the impact of a rate increase is related to the increase in basis points regardless of whether it is at near zero or at 6 percent and the speed with which it increases. 7
5 basis points in 7 quarters isn't that great an increase and allows the market and economy to adjust with less distortions than the current almost zero rate.
The 12
5 basis points move in 2016 seems a bit too fast unless they are expecting an accelerating economy with significant inflation pressures. The Fed doing this in an election year seems a bit of a stretch to be credible. My guess is that this is just to set up higher expectations so that the minimal increase to end of 201
5 is taken seriously rather than as a very tentative one with the increase having no effect.