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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What To Expect From Your Bond Mutual Fund
    My two bond funds have annual returns of +9.7% 5yr, 7+% 10 yr
    I EXPECT the same for the future, I guess that's stability... or stable enough
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    @Crash, The current president pushed for birth control availability but I don't recall if it passed or not. For the poorest, contraception would be free.
    As for TB's statement, you must understand that it is not the amount of money one has but how they spend money that is the problem. A lot of people here that have money play the keep up with the Juans games. Gambling, drinking, and especially showing off by inviting everyone to eat and be Merry. They are called one day millionaires here. The OFW seaman comes home with a month's pay and it is gone in two days.
    Any inheritance would be gone before they knew it. It's not only the direct family you see, it's all the family everywhere, uncles aunt 5th degree cousins, and then throw in neighbors, friends and just plain people.
  • Regulators Looking into Bond Funds with Hard to Sell Assets.
    Howdy @JohnChisum
    Not to you; but thoughts about the information presented in the article.
    We, being "investors"; operate, in part, that we have the presumption of the full faith and credit of supposed to big to fail soverign governments (central banks) to have our back side when things don't go well in the financial system.
    The ultimate concern for individual investors should be restrictions that could be put in place to access one's own monies. And yes, such restrictions are only a matter of a decision that it is the right thing to do during a financial stress situation.
    As to the center point of the article. High yield or junk bonds and related poorer quality debt exist for the sole fact that those organizations and/or companies placing these financial instruments into the market place are perceived or known to be "on the edge" with the ability to honor a full payback of the monies "loaned" to them by the investors in the bonds issued.
    It does not matter who the issuing entity may be. One needs to ask whether they are more comfortable or comfortable at all; investing in bonds issued by "some" countries (make your own list) or the HY bonds being issued (for example) by well known company names in the U.S., who have such hugh existing debt burdens and "on the edge" of profitable operations; but still need more money to continue to attempt to operate their business model and keep their heads above the waterline of profit.
    A list of holdings (via prospectus) of junk debt issues helps to indicate how much one may have their monetary butts hanging over the "other" side of the quality fence. The same may apply to some of the equity holdings of various mutual funds.
    While I can't disagree with premise of the article; there remains such a tight correlation between junk debt and equities (supposed high quality companies or not); that this "financial intercourse" keeps both areas on the edge, and relying upon one another.
    If the junk credit issues where to crumble, the financial fallout in equity sectors would be widespread, eh?. We witnessed this event 6 years ago.
    Below are two common, and widely used indicators.
    A total return view from the period of Oct., 2007 (when indicators started to become "rough") through March 4, 2009:
    SPY = -51%
    HYG = -27%

    We all have to pick our own investment poison (during the bad times); with the only apparent difference being that some will make one's investments more sick than the other.
    We rely, in part; upon the bond rating agencies, with their abilities and with the data they are provided, to present what we believe to be the facts relative to bond qualities.
    Even to the fact of whether one is supposed to take more comfort in a circumstance that the ECB may purchase "junk" credit issued by Greece (not picking on this country, but an existing circumstance); because no one else wants to buy the bonds. Magic money moves from the ECB to the central bank of country "x". Is this supposed to help me feel better that something, if anything; has been fixed? Not at this house. The "electronic" credit, the money loaned, is parked as a data file for a spreadsheet. What the heck becomes of the outstanding monies that were lent?
    The above thinking is based upon course studies over many years; resulting in the "Whatsamatter U" diploma hanging on the wall, at this house. :) The degree didn't cost much; and that may be evident in this write.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Vanguard: Lawyer-Turned-Whistleblower' Betrayed' Fund Giant
    FYI: (Follow-Up Article)
    Vanguard Group, the Malvern mutual fund giant, has responded to a New York whistleblower lawsuit by former Vanguard tax lawyer David Danon with accusations of betrayal, theft and ethics violations the company says should bar him or his lawyers from bringing the complaint.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/280112952.html
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    That is the key. A lot of people do not know how to be frugal. They grew up spoiled by their parents or parent who couldn't say no. That is the end result when they are adults. There is a lot of stuff people can cut back on. Going to the movies every week? Bad habits like pubs or clubs most nights of the week. Eating out all the time instead of cooking at home. The list is huge.
    As for the question of attaining a million being easier for older people, my opinion is that we were raised by folks who endured the Great Depression and WW2. They taught us to spend wisely and save for the future. Somehow the lesson got lost as generations went by and now young children have iPhones and parents spoil them silly. Us older people were working in our school years already. Summers might mean picking berries or whatever was local. Now there are restrictions on how much young people can work.
    My keys to attaining a lot of money? Learn the discipline of saving early on. Even if the amount is small, it is that discipline that gets ingrained into one's mind and eventually you are putting several hundreds into your retirement accounts. (depending on your salary of course) Another key is to quit loaning money to the government in the form of overpaying your taxes. How many people get huge refunds every year? A lot. For example if you got $3000 back on your taxes that works out to $115 each paycheck. (3000 divided by 26) That money could be going to your 401k etc. Reduce your withholding so that you get close to break even. As you put more money into your tax deferred accounts, your taxable income goes down more and that provides you with even more money to put away. Usually big refunds get spent on adult toys or vacations etc.
    If you get a bonus or a raise, think about what would happen if that hadn't happened. Put those raises and bonuses into your retirement accounts too.
    How was my life after all that? I ate well, drove new cars, went on vacations etc. I wasn't deprived of the good things in life, I just knew what my limits were. I never let credit cards ruin my financial plan. That is very easy to do. I had a average middle class wage at my work but I did work OT and that also was saved. By the time I was in my early thirties I had my first $100k. Getting to $200k was much faster. The curve really takes off once you hit a certain amount. My accounts continued to soar as I kept to my plan. I won't tell exactly how much here but it is substantial. I was fortunate to have a good bull market. That is something we don't know or can predict. I made my share of mistakes as well. I pulled out of my funds after Oct 1987. That crash rattled me but it was a learning experience and I didn't make that mistake a second time. I thought about buying AAPL at $18. Hindsight. Thats water under the bridge now. I had money in Twentieth Century Ultra fund when it rose 87% one year. I had money in the TRowe Price New Asia fund when they had some booming years early on. Gold was spectacular in the early 2000's. I guess those made up for the mistakes.
    The main point is to keep pumping the money away and whenever you have an opportunity to increase that, go for it. It's called paying yourself first.
    I apologize for the long post. I didn't mean to drift off here but I wanted to share my experience and maybe someone can use some of my tips to increase their assets.
    Hey, JohnChisum!
    You stole this from me, didn't you????????? ;)
  • Marketfield's Shaoul: Staying Ahead Of The Crowd
    Yeah, I left it a while ago too. It's down 10.58% YTD.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    davidmoran: Thanks for clarifying. Also, that was in the 2015 budget proposal. The fact that the 401K limit has been raised to $18,000 next year makes me think maybe the budget (or sections pertaining to tax- sheltered accounts) has now been settled.
    Knocking out the exemption would be a real "downer" here in that protecting that $$ from RMD was the primary motivator in doing the conversion. The paperwork wasn't daunting, but was substantial. I recall paying the taxes off in four equal installments in '09 mailing in the checks along with coupons printed from the IRS website (yes- something works there:).
    Thanks
  • Gold Nugget May Fetch $350,000
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    MSF said:
    "However, if SS COLA does not keep up with inflation, then everyone - whether they need to or not, should take payments early, because they would get more real value, as I explained ..."
    I like the way you think Sir. Along with that thought ... I'd rather be lucky than good. By sheer chance I had started taking SS at 62 about a year before markets bottomed in March '09. Using that extra income (to pay the taxes), was able to convert a sizable chunk of our traditional IRA to a Roth in March '09. Need I say more?
    There's perhaps never a bad time to convert, but during depressed markets makes more sense - especially when you are older and have a shorter time horizon. One more note per Junkster's earlier lament - While Roths are currently exempt from the RMD requirement, the (Obama) administration is seeking to have that provision axed in 2015. I can't vouch for the accuracy of that report, but believe it to be accurate and certainly hope the change is not enacted.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Dex, Thank you for clearing some things up. One's choice of words lead to certain interpretations.
    We're talking about rising costs of health care; that is, health care has always been a part of retirement costs. But it has become a larger part over time. This might have been clearer had health care been listed in the original list of costs.
    You mention Medicaid as something not kicking in before age 65. But Medicaid is a program based on income, not age. It's a different program in many ways from Medicare. For example, Medicaid covers long term care, Medicare does not.
    With respect to SS and Full Retirement Age (FRA) - As I understand your clarification, your first statement was that some people will have to take SS before (FRA) because they need the money. Fair enough.
    However, if SS COLA does not keep up with inflation, then everyone - whether they need to or not, should take payments early, because they would get more real value, as I explained. So people who have to take benefits before FRA are not disadvantaged (they don't "lose"). You may not have linked the two statements, but the two assertions are logically coupled.
    One last note on medical costs - they are rising at their slowest rate in fifty years.
    http://www.factcheck.org/2014/02/aca-impact-on-per-capita-cost-of-health-care/
    (One can just look at a couple of bar graphs in the article if one doesn't want to read the whole text.) And for 2015, Medicare premiums are rising less (0.0%) than SS benefits (1.7%).
    That's not to say that health costs are not a major concern. IHMO, they are one of the two most significant retirement uncertainties, and I said as much in another post. But if one is going to say that they are skyrocketing, one should acknowledge recent trends too.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Very interesting thread. The diversity of responses is terrific. The thing that strikes me the most is the diverse circumstances and different ideas people feel were important to achieving their retirement wealth.
    For my wife and I, the biggest benefit we had was living in a place where you could come out of high school, get a good paying job at a fortune 500 company and feel secure until you were ready to retire. That just doesn't happen any more for younger generations. We accumulated (with savings and pension) $1m by the time I was 54, and all we had to do was blindly put around 10% of our wages into a 401k and stay working long enough to get our lump some pensions. I now realize how lucky we were.
    We were very lucky to have the employment cards we were dealt. And to be honest, we weren't big spenders but bought whatever we wanted even if we couldn't afford it at the time. We carried credit card debt all the way up until maybe a year or two ago. And cash reserve on the checking account, always a balance. Very much contrary to everybody else's advice. Still did it. Go figure.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Let's slow down here - you may have some good points, but the facts are rather mixed up.
    When Social Security began, it meant that a person would not be a pauper but food, clothing and shelter. Now, it means food, clothing, shelter, travel costs, cable TV, dining out, internet, Obamacare etc.
    When SS began, there was nothing else in place for health care - so to the extent that SS was intended to help people survive, that included medical care. It was only decades later that medical care was taken out of the equation.
    As to Social Security helping - look at how much you lose if you take it at 62 vs 65. AND, what a person gets if they do not make a lot of $ when working.
    Then there is inflation - although the official CPI is low the retirement CPI is higher - food, energy and health care.
    The two statements implied - that one gets more money by waiting, and that SS doesn't keep up with inflation - are contradictory.
    Let's slow down AND understand each other - not make inferences.
    Medical costs - Medical costs and ins have sky rocketed from the time SS came into being and even since the mid 1980s. That is why I specifically mentioned Obamacare. If a person was to retire now or in the future before medicare/medicade kicks in that would be a significant cost that would impact the $1M question.
    The other two statements were only to be linked regarding the $1M, not inflation. The first one relating to if, a person retires before 62 or 65 & not at the high end of the wage earning scale. This is important because many people (especially at the high end of the earning scale) do not have the option to work until SS kicks in - they are offered buy outs, laid off or other things happen. The second about specific inflation for a retired person VS the general CPI.
    So, to really evaluate if a person can retire on $1M, we need to know their assumption for spending, investments and expected returns.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Let's slow down here - you may have some good points, but the facts are rather mixed up.
    When Social Security began, it meant that a person would not be a pauper but food, clothing and shelter. Now, it means food, clothing, shelter, travel costs, cable TV, dining out, internet, Obamacare etc.
    When SS began, there was nothing else in place for health care - so to the extent that SS was intended to help people survive, that included medical care. It was only decades later that medical care was taken out of the equation.
    In 1965 (effective 1966) Medicare was created, but it is not part of SS. And because there is Medicare, the ACA (aka Obamacare) explicitly prohibits people over age 65 from purchasing individual plans. (Payments for Medicare can be made directly out of SS as a convenience; it is not a part of SS.)
    Even the idea that poor people had to be accepted and treated by hospitals isn't something that the government promised until COBRA, passed under Reagan in 1986 mandated that hospitals that take Medicare accept all patients regardless of ability to pay or lack of insurance.
    As to Social Security helping - look at how much you lose if you take it at 62 vs 65. AND, what a person gets if they do not make a lot of $ when working.
    Then there is inflation - although the official CPI is low the retirement CPI is higher - food, energy and health care.
    The two statements implied - that one gets more money by waiting, and that SS doesn't keep up with inflation - are contradictory.
    In theory, the expected real value of SS payments is the same no matter when one starts payments. (The term is actuarial equivalent.) But if SS COLA isn't keeping up with inflation (as you suggested), then the later dollars are worth less. So if one benefit (starting payments at 62) has more early dollars than the other (starting payments at 65), one doesn't lose by taking at 62. One wins.
    (Note: I don't agree with that conclusion for a variety of reasons; I'm just trying to show where the statements lead.)
    Where I think you are spot on is the difficulty that many people have in saving for retirement. That $50K average household income doesn't leave much room for saving, especially if one is raising a family. (That $1K/mo for two kids in Berkeley aside.)
  • Marketfield's Shaoul: Staying Ahead Of The Crowd
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Michael Shaoul, chief executive of Marketfield Asset Management, combs through economic data and corporate earnings in search of something—anything—that other investors are missing. He uses the nuggets unearthed to help shape his global macroeconomic calls, which in turn influence the $16 billion MainStay Marketfield Fund.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=marketfield's+barron's&oq=marketfield's+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...1343.11268.0.11633.22.19.0.3.3.0.137.1395.18j1.19.0....0...1c.1.56.hp..7.15.968.MznmcmYQ5fY
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks End Higher; S&P 500 Nabs Biggest Weekly Gain Of Year
    SPY all blue, once again...very strong week. Now up nearly 8% YTD.
    image
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    That is the key. A lot of people do not know how to be frugal. They grew up spoiled by their parents or parent who couldn't say no. That is the end result when they are adults. There is a lot of stuff people can cut back on. Going to the movies every week? Bad habits like pubs or clubs most nights of the week. Eating out all the time instead of cooking at home. The list is huge.
    As for the question of attaining a million being easier for older people, my opinion is that we were raised by folks who endured the Great Depression and WW2. They taught us to spend wisely and save for the future. Somehow the lesson got lost as generations went by and now young children have iPhones and parents spoil them silly. Us older people were working in our school years already. Summers might mean picking berries or whatever was local. Now there are restrictions on how much young people can work.
    My keys to attaining a lot of money? Learn the discipline of saving early on. Even if the amount is small, it is that discipline that gets ingrained into one's mind and eventually you are putting several hundreds into your retirement accounts. (depending on your salary of course) Another key is to quit loaning money to the government in the form of overpaying your taxes. How many people get huge refunds every year? A lot. For example if you got $3000 back on your taxes that works out to $115 each paycheck. (3000 divided by 26) That money could be going to your 401k etc. Reduce your withholding so that you get close to break even. As you put more money into your tax deferred accounts, your taxable income goes down more and that provides you with even more money to put away. Usually big refunds get spent on adult toys or vacations etc.
    If you get a bonus or a raise, think about what would happen if that hadn't happened. Put those raises and bonuses into your retirement accounts too.
    How was my life after all that? I ate well, drove new cars, went on vacations etc. I wasn't deprived of the good things in life, I just knew what my limits were. I never let credit cards ruin my financial plan. That is very easy to do. I had a average middle class wage at my work but I did work OT and that also was saved. By the time I was in my early thirties I had my first $100k. Getting to $200k was much faster. The curve really takes off once you hit a certain amount. My accounts continued to soar as I kept to my plan. I won't tell exactly how much here but it is substantial. I was fortunate to have a good bull market. That is something we don't know or can predict. I made my share of mistakes as well. I pulled out of my funds after Oct 1987. That crash rattled me but it was a learning experience and I didn't make that mistake a second time. I thought about buying AAPL at $18. Hindsight. Thats water under the bridge now. I had money in Twentieth Century Ultra fund when it rose 87% one year. I had money in the TRowe Price New Asia fund when they had some booming years early on. Gold was spectacular in the early 2000's. I guess those made up for the mistakes.
    The main point is to keep pumping the money away and whenever you have an opportunity to increase that, go for it. It's called paying yourself first.
    I apologize for the long post. I didn't mean to drift off here but I wanted to share my experience and maybe someone can use some of my tips to increase their assets.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Let's first start with what retirement means. When Social Security began, it meant that a person would not be a pauper but food, clothing and shelter. Now, it means food, clothing, shelter, travel costs, cable TV, dining out, internet, Obamacare etc.
    Yes, you can retire on $1M based upon the old definition. Under the new definition it is very difficult to do in expensive areas - east/west coasts and other high price areas - ESPECIALLY when you take into account housing costs - rental or purchase. Look at the cost or renting in NYC or San Francisco.
    As to Social Security helping - look at how much you lose if you take it at 62 vs 65. AND, what a person gets if they do not make a lot of $ when working.
    Then there is inflation - although the official CPI is low the retirement CPI is higher - food, energy and health care.
    So, if you want to retire on $1M and maybe SS at 62 you will need to move to a low cost area.
    However, generally speaking, it is very difficult to accumulate $1M - depending upon when you were born and if your spouce worked or not.
    My guess is that there are 'OLDER' posters here born earlier then apx 1960 or '64 who have large assets who will disagree with me on the difficulty of accumulating $1M. They really need to look at the employment/economic/wage/benefit/defined benefit/health ins/401k changes over time.