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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Will Happen To Gold In 2015
    Howdy Doc,
    I'm with Mark. I still accumulate but speculating in this market in the near term is borderline suicidal Recall that historically, commodity bull markets range from 13-15 years. The bull market in gold has been running since 2002 [rono scrambles to get his calculator . . . . figger, figger, figger . . . yup, it's been a great run, TYVM.] However, it really doesn't look that promising a place to play for speculation.
    peace,
    rono
  • How's the Bullpen functioning?
    38 of the first 40 posts listed in the "Bullpen"" belong to one poster (Ted) for a batting average of 95%.
    I've tried to resuscitate a couple of these lame-ducks this week, but they continue to languish in obscurity.
    Aside from being a "thorn in the side" ... I was wondering what role the bullpen plays in the overall scheme of things here?
    -
    And ... Happy Holidays. Thanks David, Accipiter, Chip and all the others for making this a great site.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rise; Dow Ends Above 18000
    You heard it first on MFO:
    Tampabay
    December 22 edited December 22 in Off-Topic Flag
    I know better than Saying/thinking this (in this stock market game) BUT we still have time for 18,000 Dow in 2014 (17,895 11:00 am)...who would have thunk it after 2013?
  • In Defense Of Advisors Who Sell Variable Annuities
    Bob, thanks for your comments.
    Regarding TIAA - I realize you're talking about the fixed portion (TIAA traditional) - the TIAA portion also includes some variable options like TREA as well. The 10 year annuitization requirement is an issue, but strikes me as an apples and oranges comparison. TIAA Traditional is (primarily) available in employer-sponsored plans, while the other plans you mentioned (Schwab, Jeff Nat, etc.) are retail plans.
    I think a more accurate comparison would use TIAA-CREF's after tax product, Intelligent VA. That doesn't offer TIAA Traditional, just as the other plans named don't offer a useful stable value alternative. Thus no issue with 10 year annuitization.
    Over the long term, the fee on Jeff Nat for a $100K account may be higher than TIAA-CREF's. (TIAA-CREF charges 0.35% for ten years, then 0.10%.) But I do agree they're in the same ballpark, and significantly lower than the annuity fee of the other providers.
    Statements really are a problem with TIAA. At least when they produce them. It turns out that for their brokerage accounts, they don't generate 5498s if there have been no contributions, even if the account has RMDs.
    They fault Pershing for this, and I think they may be right - I took a look back at my old Vanguard IRAs; back when it still used Pershing (before about 2010) I did not seem to get 5498s. Now I do.
    As you wrote, nothing is perfect.
  • Express Scripts, AbbVie & Gilead
    Thanks Catch. The bottom line is that my uncle has to take the Abbvie cocktail of pills instead of Gilead's Harvoni pill.
    This conclusion was reached by my uncle's physician, not by Express Scripts as we have still not been able to get through to Express Scripts' horrible customer service. Even though Express Scripts had approved my uncle's Harvoni prescription on Dec. 5 to begin use on Jan. 5, Express Scripts' edict from yesterday stating that they won't cover Harvoni beginning Jan. 1 has forced my uncle to change from a superior cure (Harvoni) to an inferior cure (Abbvie) which includes pills which may cause painful side effects. My uncle's doctor said that he can't get the date of the prescription moved up so that my uncle could begin Harvoni this year.
    It's my sincere hope that Express Scripts is subjected to a massive legal attack costing Express Scripts billions. That would be the best Holiday gift ever!
  • Biotech price wars coming your way? Many Healthcare funds may be affected.
    IMO, keep an eye to this sector; which has had a wonderful run upwards.
    Supposing this would be named one of those "forward looking" thingys in company reports related to their best guess. :)
    ---broad healthcare down -2.5% as of 11am, EST
    several article links via Google Search
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    @expatsp. Me too with BB. FAAFX a drag. WBMIX did not help either...neither did SIGIX, although it at least nicely beat in its category, as is usual for Mr. Foster.
    One day the Great Pumpkin will come to we loyal investors in FAAFX =).
    Fortunately, DODGX, did well. I remain fully invested (thanks for AKAFlack) versus DODGX/DODIX split...and will stay so as long as 10-mo SMA is positive.
    And, had couple individual stocks that have done well. Thanks to Ted for helping me double down on BAC. Ditto to Scott wrt/OAK. AA and HCP also had good years.
    Honestly, thanks to all the support and guidance I get from the board.
    To 2015...a new season.
    Go Yanks!
    c
  • In Defense Of Advisors Who Sell Variable Annuities
    We have had particularly difficult time dealing with TIAA-CREF. They always treat client dollars as their own. The TIAA portion is very problematic to deal with, since clients rarely understand that this cannot be rolled over at retirement. It has to be annuitized or taken over a 10-year period. Unfortunately, many 403b, 457, etc participants put most of their dollars in the TIAA portion of their plan. The other issue is that if someone has worked at several different schools, churches, government entities over their career, they will have separate TIAA-CREF accounts for each entity, each with slightly different rules depending on what the entity negotiated with TIAA-CREF. Tracking these is often difficult for individuals, and the statements from TIAA-CREF are not particularly helpful, either.
    Regarding your other thoughts, since most client annuity contracts are for retirement accounts (nothing like putting a tax-deferred contract inside a tax-deferred account!), we hardly ever annuitze these, always doing a rollover to Schwab or Fidelity IRA. Those few contracts that need to be kept in an annuity format can usually be dealt with in an appropriate manner. Often the client does not need the dollars for income at all, and will continue to put off taking dollars as long as they can. Others might be 1035 to an immediate fixed annuity if the rate is acceptable and the company is good. Unlike those who make a living selling annuities, we find there are many options to consider.
    Jefferson National's Monument Advisor has been a godsend for fee-only companies, and it has done a very good job of working with firms to set up accounts for downloading and monitoring. The 400+ investment options are certainly more than needed and have many very good managers/funds. No commission, no surrender period, and a simple $240 annual fee are very attractive. For a $100,000 contract, this amounts to an annual 0.24%, which is similar to Vanguard and Fidelity, lower than Schwab. Truth to tell, there is no perfect annuity, just as there is no perfect investment of any kind.
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    Hi JohnChisum, expatsp, kevindow, Catch22 and others that my follow with comment,
    Thanks for stopping by and making comment. The reason I made this post is I am looking out towards mid January when fourth quarter 2014 earnings will began to be reported. I am thinking the outlook for the energy sector will disappoint for many investors which will weigh on the overall equity markets and we will perhaps see a good dip, pullback or even a downdraft present itself. There is always perhaps a not so associated with this call.
    Since, I am currently overweight equities from my neutral position I am thinking of trimming after we get into January as I am looking for another percent or so to come for the S&P 500 Index before year end. I am thinking the first week on January will also be a good week but after that I am thinking things will slow and that’s when I am thinking of trimming.
    I can do this in steps as the market moves upward, or downward, or in bulk at the time of my choosing. I also think that for 2015 we will perhaps see another 8% gain on the Index although the ride will be a bumpy one. With this anticipated volatility I plan to make some more special spiff investment positions and to profit form this I will have to buy low during market declines and sell high towards market peaks. I plan to do this in a tax deferred account and in funds that I can buy at nav. Some might say this is market timming (as Dex at first did) ... however, by my defination it is not as I am not a day trader nor am I buying inapporiately in mutual funds after the markets have closed and outside of what is allowed by fund prospectus. This type of investment strategy would be called by some as simply playing the swing.
    You now have my playbook exposed prior to the anticipated events as some have said I have failed to do in the past in posting past successes. I do this in the spirit of helping others with some insight to my thinking. However, one should do their own thinking and not rely on mine because I have been know, at times, to have missed calls. And, yes, this is hard to do as the market changes and at times is not in concert with my playbook. And, with this I have to remain flexible. But, if one fails to plan then they have planned to fail.
    Wishing all the best for the Holiday Season and most of all … Merry Christmas!
    Old_Skeet
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    @Charles: Thanks for sharing your (relative) pain, I too am way behind the S&P this year after a few years outperforming. Fairholme hit me hard, and great performance from Primecap and decent performance from Bridgeway (my other two big positions) weren't enough to compensate. My foreign funds (ARTKX, SFGIX, GPIOX) outpeformed their benchmarks but underperformed, of course, the S&P.
    Getting back to this general topic, I intend to remain close to fully invested in equities. The economy seems to be picking up speed, not slowing down, so I don't see any reason for a bear market any time soon. And as to the inevitable 5-10% corrections, I've learned that I'm not smart enough to time those, though I do have a little dry powder just in case some bargains appear.
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    SPY 10, 50, 200 day averages all positive.
    SP500 up 14.5% YTD. How many of us can claim that? Not me, I'm up YTD only 2-3%.
    Although, volume seems a little skittish...
    image
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    Hi @kevindow
    I have followed the Barchart opinions, too.
    Per your link, do you give more attention to any particular indicator(s) or just to the overall "buy, sell, hold" ratings?
    I also use Stockcharts for 10 & 39, and 50, 100 and 200 moving averages; and related RSI 14 values.
    I, too; agree relative to the U.S. equity areas.
    Thank you for your input and time here.
    Catch
  • Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities?
    Hi Skeet,
    I follow the 20/50/100EMAs, and the charts for the following continue to be strong and I would not fight the trend: SPY, IJH, IWM, XLK, VHT, IBB, FBT, XLU and VNQ. Foreign developed and EM equities continue to lag, and I would avoid investing in these spaces.
    Also, I follow the Barchart Opinion for these ETFs. Again, positive on the previously listed ETFs.
    Finally, take a look at the Fear & Greed Index, which currently indicates a bullish "Fear."
    My plan is to stay fully invested until the charts of my holdings break down.
    Kevin
  • Two Dems Want Active Funds In The TSP
    "Govtrack.us estimates that Meeks' bill has a
    two percent chance of getting out of committee and a one
    percent chance of actually becoming law."

    Excellent news !!
    We are currently invested in a 2/1 ratio in the TSP C (S&P 500) and S (VIEIX/FSEVX) funds, respectively. There is nothing wrong with the TSP that the politically motivated representatives need to fix. With an average expense ratio of 0.029%, the TSP is an awesome deal. However, it would be nice if the TSP offered extremely low cost exposure to foreign SC/MC equities, EM equities and foreign/EM fixed income.
    Kevin
  • An Emerging Retirement Drawdown Controversy
    At least for a nomial percentate of folks here, in or near retirement and with a presumption of a rollover of a 401 or 403 plan into an IRA, the following:
    ---Okay, we'll throw out the pension (assuming one exists) and social security monies and focus on the "drawdown" question. Regardless of studies as noted here and others I have read (I did not read the one linked here), the fact remains that for those attaining the magic 70.5 age, the IRS is going to force these folks to "drawdown", whether they choose to or not. Current calculations require about 3.66% for year 1 and increases thereafter.
    As to asset mix. Well, we all have our own risks and rewards machine in place, eh?
    To repeat; the simple 50/50 of VTI and BND provides the following averages:
    ---5 year = 9.9%
    ---3 year = 12.5%
    ---1 year = 10.6
    ---YTD = 9.35%
    Yup. Not very diversified. Just a good place to have been and be right now, IMO; for a simple portfolio. If one is ahead of the above numbers, you're doing well with your money management.
    Regards,
    Catch