@John. You are correct. But sounds like a "Catch-22". Producers save on production costs as energy prices drop, but this also brings on-stream smaller competitors who were unprofitable at higher energy costs. Net effect: lower aluminum prices which hurt big producers.
Article 1 http://www.wikinvest.com/commodity/Aluminum
Relevant excerpt: "Smelting alumina into aluminum requires a constant, large supply of electricity, which accounts for around 25% of the costs of the entire smelting process. ... a decrease in energy costs can allow previously closed smelters to reopen, which would increase the supply of aluminum and lower prices."
Article 2 : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/aluminum-drops-after-oil-prices-slump-to-lowest-in-four-years.html
Relevant Excerpt: "While crude is not the primary source of energy for the aluminum producers, energy accounts for about 30 percent of output costs and falling oil prices may have a deflationary impact..."
-
There's much suggesting auto makers may curtail plans to use more aluminum if oil stays low. Won't bother linking all that. Something forgot to mention earlier is the role of aluminum in shipping and packing containers. Think of the savings derived from transporting aluminum soda or beer cans instead of heavier materials. Won't be immediate. But over time cheaper fuel would reduce that reliance on lighter-weight containers.

FYI: Volatility is in full swing.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/14/morning-moneybeat-the-markets-really-swinging-now/tab/print/
Current Futures: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Hmmm.
I think both the SP500 and the category are down YTD 2% or more.
I've always liked Stephen Dodson and BRTNX...his value approach, concentrated portfolio, communication with shareholders, and performance.
Here's a look since inception...

The low AUM has never bothered me, more of a positive actually. It's not going away, if that's your concern. My sense is that if there is a Steven Dobson there will be a BRTNX.
My only issue would be the 1.5% er, but I believe most mutual funds charge too much. If his past performance continues, suspect he will gain AUM going forward and hopefully er will decrease.

@Old_Joe said
With almost any other product, anti-dumping, anti-trust, restraint-of-trade and other regulations try to prevent any company or group of companies from cornering a market
Lead,Follow or Get the f.. out of the way!
Exclusive: Shell says has U.S. OK to export lightly processed oil
BY KRISTEN HAYS
HOUSTON Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:11pm EST (my emphasis)
(Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L) said on Tuesday it received U.S. approval to export a very light form of crude oil that has undergone minimal processing.
Shell had been working with the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on how to ship lightly processed condensate overseas without violating a decades-old crude export ban, the company told Reuters. The BIS regulates export controls.
About two dozen companies, including Shell, have sought more clarity from the BIS. At least one prominent Eagle Ford producer, BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP.AX), moved forward with exports without waiting for a ruling, confident that its output would undergo sufficient processing to qualify.
The BIS issued guidance on Dec. 30 - which the agency had been working on for most of 2014 - to provide more clarity to companies awaiting rulings. The agency also started telling some companies that they should do follow BHP's lead.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/us-usa-crude-exports-idUSKBN0KM2F420150114?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Dear friends,
About 40 of us gathered on Tuesday evening to talk with Bernie Horn. It was an interesting talk, one which covered some of the same ground that he went over in private with Ed and me but one which also highlighted a couple new points.
Highlights:

• The genesis of the fund was in his days as a student at the Sloan School of Management at MIT at the end of the 1970s. It was a terrible decade for stocks in the US but he was struck by the number of foreign markets that had done just fine. One of his professors, Fischer Black, an economist whose work with Myron Scholes on options led to a Nobel Prize, generally preached the virtues of the efficient market theory but carries "a handy list of exceptions to EMT." The most prominent exception was value investing. The emerging research on the investment effects of international diversification and on value as a loophole to EMT led him to launch his first global portfolios.
  
• His goal is, over the long-term, to generate 2% greater returns than the market with lower volatility.
  
• He began running separately-managed accounts but those became an administrative headache and so he talked his investors into joining a limited partnership which later morphed into Polaris Global Value.
  
• The central disciplined are calculating the "Polaris global cost of capital" (which he thinks separates him from most of his peers) and the desire to add stocks which have low correlations to his existing portfolio.
  
• The Polaris global cost of capital starts with the market's likely rate of return, about 6% real. He believes that the top tier of managers can add about 2% or 200 bps of alpha. So far that implies an 8% cost of capital. He argues that fixed income markets are really pretty good at arbitraging currency risks, so he looks at the difference between the interest rates on a country's bonds and its inflation rate to find the last component of his cost of capital. The example was Argentina: 24% interest rate minus a 10% inflation rate means that bond investors are demanding a 14% real return on their investments. The 14% reflects the bond market's judgment of the cost of currency; that is, the bond market is pricing-in a really high risk of a peso devaluation. In order for an Argentine company to be attractive to him, he has to believe that it can overcome a 22% cost of capital (6 + 2 + 14). The hurdle rate for the same company domiciled elsewhere might be substantially lower.
  
• He does not hedge his currency exposure because the value calculation above implicitly accounts for currency risk. Currency fluctuations accounted for most of the fund's negative returns last year, about 2/3s as of the third quarter. To be clear: the fund made money in 2014 and finished in the top third of its peer group. 2/3s of the drag on the portfolio came from currency and 1/3 from stock selections.
  
• He tries to target new investments which are not correlated with his existing ones; that is, ones that do not all expose his investors to a single, potentially catastrophic risk factor. It might well be that the 100 more attractively priced stocks in the world are all financials but he would not overload the portfolio with them because that overexposes his investors to interest rate risks. Heightened vigilance here is one of the lessons of the 2007-08 crash.
  
• An interesting analogy on the correlation and portfolio construction piece: he tries to imagine what would happen if all of the companies in his portfolio merged to form a single conglomerate. In the conglomerate, he'd want different divisions whose cash generation was complementary: if interest rates rose, some divisions would generate less cash but some divisions would generate more and the net result would be that rising interest rates would not impair the conglomerates overall free cash flow. By way of example, he owns energy exploration and production companies whose earnings are down because of low oil prices but also refineries whose earnings on up.
  
• He instituted more vigorous stress tests for portfolio companies in the wake of 07/08. 25 of 70 companies were "cyclically exposed". Some of those firms had high fixed costs of operations which would not allow them to reduce costs as revenues fell. Five companies got "bumped off" as a result of that stress-testing.
  

Interesting Q&A:
Timothy Garr: why not just a concentrated, "best ideas" portfolio. BH: we've tried modeling concentrated portfolios of our holdings, but we haven't been able to find a way of constructing a focused portfolio that has a consistently better risk-return profile than global value's.
Timothy Garr: why charge a transaction fee? BH: our Pear Tree and PNC funds don't. For Polaris itself and for most of its investors, it makes little economic sense to impose the extra fees required to create the NTF illusion. You can buy PGV direct from Polaris to dodge those fees.
Neil Burns: how do you handle "consolidated risk" factors, such as how much emerging markets exposure to have? BH: it's a combination of our cost of capital discipline (if your economy and government are shaky, you end up with a high cost of capital and very few of your firms will be able to earn their cost of capital) and qualitative screens (he and all of his staff are heavily invested in the fund and he hates to lose money, so he ends up doing a "gut check" that sometimes lead him to say "no mas").
Ken Norman: how would you allocate between your foreign value and foreign value small cap funds? BH: a conservative foreign investor might look at 75% Value/25% SCV. They try to "manage down" the small cap fund's beta but it's more of a challenge now than it used to be. Small cap investors used to be reasonably patient and long-term because they knew that's what it took to unlock the small cap premium, which tended to dampen volatility. Now with so much money invested through sliced-and-diced ETFs, the markets seem jumpier.
Ken Norman: are you the lead manager on both the foreign funds? BH: Yes, but ... Here Bernie made a particularly interesting point, that he gives his associates a lot of leeway on the foreign funds both in stock selection and portfolio construction. That has two effects. (1) It represents a form of transition planning. His younger associates are learning how to operate the Polaris system using real money and making decisions that carry real consequences. He thinks that will make them much better stewards of Polaris Global Value when it becomes their turn to lead the fund. (2) It represents a recruitment and retention strategy. It lets bright young analysts know that they are a real role to play and a real future with the firm.
Shostakovich: you've used options to manage volatility. Is that still part of the plan? BH: Yes, but rarely now. Three reasons. (1) There are no options on many of the portfolio firms. (2) Post-08, options positions are becoming much more expensive, hence less rewarding. (3) Options trade away "excess" upside in exchange for limiting downside; he's reluctant to surrender much alpha since some of the firms in the portfolio have really substantial potential.
Shostakovich: how did you manage to reduce your e.r. at a time when assets were not rising sharply? BH: we decided to absorb some of the expenses ourselves in order to reduce our e.r. below 1.0%, which is a threshold for consideration by many institutional investors. We're hoping that going below 1.0% makes them willing to take us seriously.
For what that's worth,
David

Lower fuel costs stand to hurt Alcoa. Aluminum is an expensive (lightweight) alternative to steel for transportation needs. Expensive to produce. Expensive to work with. That's why Ford's all aluminum F150 is going to struggle. Sure, they'll sell a bunch out of the gate, but it won't be the hit they envisioned until gas gets up over $3. Probably be offering big discounts about the time gas levels off at $1.50 nationwide.
The following article appeared in April, just three months before the plunge in oil began. At that time there were wildly optimistic forecasts the use of aluminum would spread rapidly among auto makers.
"Ford's New Alcoa Connection" (April 2014) http://www.post-gazette.com/auto/2014/04/17/Ford-F-150-Alcoa-Connection/stories/201404170089
It's hard to escape politics in all of this. There are mounting pressures already to ease up on mandated fuel economy standards in coming years.

Here's institutional version of QUSOX, QUSIX...through December 2014:

Hi expatsp,
The managers of CRUMX did a decent job running FLSIX 2007-2013, and have really capitalized by being overweight with munis. Here are two helpful articles:
http://dailyalts.com/top-nontraditional-bond-fund-celebrates-first-anniversary/
http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111903835404577348180818113536
Kevin

I had read that Alcoa's earnings were off. Sometimes the markets develop this skittish behavior and yes, over analyzing things tends to exacerbate the process. Funny thing is, what exactly has changed ?

Well, yeah, there was financial engineering in Alcoa's earnings, but no one cares about that anymore. The robots and the non-robots just look at the number and don't ask any questions.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/how-alcoa-just-smashed-earnings-expectations

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577406/000089418915000147/loeb_497e.htm
LOEB KING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FUND
LOEB KING ASIA FUND
each a series of Loeb King Trust
(together, the “Funds”)
January 13, 2015
Supplement to the
Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
each dated December 19, 2014
Effective immediately, the Funds will not accept any new investments and will no longer pursue their respective investment objectives. The Funds have begun liquidating their portfolios and will invest in cash and cash equivalents, such as money market funds, until all shares have been redeemed. Prior to closing, any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders in the form of reinvestment in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Funds are otherwise not available for purchase. Each Fund is expected to be closed and liquidated within approximately thirty (30) days (the “Liquidation Date”).
Prior to the respective Fund’s Liquidation Date, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the Funds’ Prospectus. As is the case with any redemption of Fund shares, redemption proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA or 401(k), the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax advisor for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation. Please refer to the “Distributions and Taxes” section in the Prospectus for general information.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF A FUND PRIOR TO THE FUND’S LIQUIDATION DATE WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS, SUBJECT TO ANY REQUIRED WITHHOLDINGS, WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUNDS AT 1-855-722-4550.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodial Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.

Just waking up here. According to CNBC, a lot of the reversal happened in roughly a one hour timeframe. Computers or a big sell?

I'd say it happened in a 15-30 minute time frame. Was very quick.

Thanks Old_Skeet (and mcmarasco and Old_Joe).
I've added the following to each page...
For Great Owl page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.
For Three Alarm page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.
For Fund Dashboard page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.
See if this works.
If it does not, I will also add a link to the legacy Google chart format.
Thanks!

FYI: (I'm getting concerned, this is not a good sign)
The S&P 500 was up more than 1.4% at its highs this morning, but an afternoon of vicious selling has left the index now down 0.80% on the day and down more than 2% from its highs. Ugly action for sure.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/1/13/huge-negative-reversal.html?printerFriendly=true

davidrmoran: good points, but yes, one should always stay polite.
This tax would probably actually reduce costs for people like us, by reducing the presence of high-frequency trading, which generally prevents big investors (like the actively-managed mutual funds most of us invest in) from making big purchases/sales without manipulating prices.

expatsp, I'm a little confused on your statement. Are you saying that lower trading volumes will help mutual funds? Maybe you can elaborate on why.
Financial transaction taxes are nothing new. Here is the definitive study on the matter.
Generally financial transaction taxes reduce trading volumes and bid/ask spreads, which leads to MORE market manipulation, not less.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1980185

FYI: First high-profile departure since surprise exit of co-founder Bill Gross.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150112/FREE/150119982/pimco-names-seidner-to-run-unconstrained-bond-fund-as-parikh-exits

The DoubleLine market outlook for 2015 will be presented by Gundlach later today at 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET.

http://www.doubleline.com/
The title of the presentation is "V" (?) ..... how mysterious....

CRUMX has jumped out of the starting gate and that's with almost 25% in cash according to M*.

>> I admit I did not read the entire article
Poor level of discourse. RTFA, and the below too.
See if you might thoughtfully find some things about it that sound positive.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/transaction-tax-plan-brings-fresh-wall-street-battle-to-capitol-hill-2015-01-12
+1 to MM and AJ

Yep.
Sold off quite a bit on this disappointing day, yet again...
OXY...I picked up recently, but could not hold gains...had hoped that this would be more sturdy given its dividend yield. No luck. APA, HES, XOM all down heavy as well.
SAFM...I picked up fairly recently, but could not hold gains. Massive shorts seem to be winning tug-of-war here.
SCHN...I took a beating on this one...a stubborn holding for me. Probably one of the most hated stocks out there today...the earnings call last week was so antagonistic. An aggressive BAC ML analyst basically called into question the entire business model for this 100 year old company. With raw metals at record lows, why would anyone want to by scrap? Jeffries stepped up with a hold and targets $20, citing cost reduction initiatives, continued FCF, and nice dividend, but the stock almost broke below $17 today. No admittance that tha company is buying its stock. Believe it can go lower still. Sad to say.
Did use downgrade by CS to pick up AIG, which has been off its recent high of $55. Added again to BAC...it too off recent high of $19...today, under $17.
HCP, OAK, AA continue to run higher. AA crushed expectations.
So, now just five equities: BAC, AA, HCP, OAK, and AIG.
c

Chip's updated Search Tools with ratings data through December 2014.
The update shows 470 Great Owl funds, or about 6 percent of all evaluated. Of these, about 100 are also Honor Roll funds, meaning they are top quintile performers for both risk adjusted and absolute returns.
Some notables:
Akre Focus Instl (AKRIX)
AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
Artisan International Value Investor (ARTKX)
Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators (IWIRX)
Hennessy Focus Investor (HFCSX)
Janus Triton D (JANIX)
Pear Tree Polaris Fgn Val Sm Cap Instl (QUSIX)
PIMCO Foreign Bond (USD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
PIMCO Intl StksPLUS AR Strat (UsD-Hg) A (PIPAX)
PIMCO StocksPLUS Absolute Return Instl (PSPTX)
PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Instl (PSLDX)
PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX)
RiverPark Structural Alpha Institutional (RSAIX)
Smead Value Investor (SMVLX)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
T. Rowe Price Diversified Sm Cap Growth (PRDSX)
T. Rowe Price Global Technology (PRGTX)
T. Rowe Price Instl Mid-Cap Equity Gr (PMEGX)
T. Rowe Price Instl Small-Cap Stock (TRSSX)
T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX)
T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity Inv (VSTCX)
Vanguard Struct Large-Cap Eq InstlPlus (VSLPX)
Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX)
Of the 1800 or so surviving funds that have been around 20 years, only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014.
Some of them are:
American Century Equity Income Inv (TWEIX)
AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
Elfun Trusts (ELFNX)
Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Z (MDISX)
Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
PIMCO Foreign Bond (UsD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
TCW Total Return Bond I (TGLMX)
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
A few notable funds on our latest Three Alarm list...Calamos and Royce spending some time in the barrel:
Aegis Value (AVALX)
AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
Calamos Focus Growth A (CBCAX)
Calamos Growth A (CVGRX)
Calamos Opportunistic Value A (CVAAX)
Calamos Total Return Bond A (CTRAX)
Davis NY Venture A (NYVTX)
Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
Evermore Global Value A (EVGBX)
FpA Capital (FPPTX)
Greenspring (GRSPX)
Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
Janus Aspen Overseas Instl (JAIGX)
LKCM Fixed-Income (LKFIX)
Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX)
MainStay Cornerstone Growth A (KLGAX)
MainStay Growth Allocation A (MGXAX)
Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
Old Westbury Fixed Income (OWFIX)
Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
Royce SMid-Cap Value Svc (RMVSX)
Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
Thornburg International Value A (TGVAX)
Valley Forge (VAFGX)
Couple other interesting observations...
Bretton Fund (BRTNX), which David last profiled in June 2013, is a Great Owl.
As are three RiverPark funds, as seen below, all also profiled by David:

David Sherman's RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund (RPHIX) actually holds distinction of having highest 3-year risk adjusted return of more than 8000 funds evaluated...twice the Sharpe and seven times higher Sortino and Martin than closest competitor. In a league all its own. A GO since eligible, but M* still only gives it one star for reasons discussed in last February's commentary, "Impact of Category On Fund Ratings".
Good progress continues on our MFO Premium Search Tools site, currently in so-called beta or check-out phase. If you are interested in being a beta tester, please drop David a note. Still trying to figure out how we want to roll-out.
If you see anything amiss in latest ratings update, will work to correct soonest. And, feedback always welcome.
Enjoy.
c