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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    I hold my collected stuff in a self-made portfolio at M* via their "Portfolio Manager." I certainly do not need the price quotes by 5:00 p.m. But by 8:00 p.m., they ought to be there. I certainly do check other websites, which somehow manage to update much quicker than Morningstar, which HAS BEEN The Gold Standard for how many years, now? But the thing is, it's very easy to find day-end updates for each individual fund elsewhere, but to see the Big Picture, I need to see my total over at Morningstar in its Portf. Mangr. I would not be DOING anything at that point in the day, surely, just after the Markets close. ....Also, I'm a brand new "premium" member by virtue of my holdings with TRP. It's a perk offered at X number of dollars in your account(s) under management with them. Premium users, especially those who actually PAY for the prem. Morningstar service, are certainly NOT getting their money's worth, waiting until the wee hours to check to see IF M* has finally updated, and correctly. (Note: I do seem to see that Double Line is slow to report. They are in L.A., but not their Transfer Agents, US Bank: Milwaukee, yes? Anyhow, it's always the last of mine to update, and I wonder what THAT'S about? SOME things MIGHT not be Morningstar's fault.)
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    and at 5:00pm what would you do with that information? Just curious? Something you can do that you can't do at open of the market the next day......or are you just bored?
    I'm in a learning mode
    It's not that they're intending to do something, but (I'm guessing) just checking it there. However, I guess my question is why there? Perhaps they have M* premium and are checking updates there and feeling that they are not getting their M* $'s worth if it's not updating on time.
    If not that I don't know.
  • GMO's glummest forecast
    GMO just released their February 2015 projection of asset class returns over the next 5-7 years. It may be the glummest, if not the grimmest, I've seen. At this point, they project negative real returns for nine of the 12 asset groups they track.
    (3.5%) Int'l bonds (currency hedged)
    (3.4%) US small cap
    (2.4%) US large cap
    (1.0%) US bonds
    (0.5%) TIPs
    (0.3%) Cash
    (0.2%) Int'l small cap
    (0.1%) US high quality
    0.0% Int'l large cap
    2.6% EM bonds
    2.9% EM equity
    5.4% Managed timber
    Three notes: (1) short-term events can dramatically change these medium-range projections, a 25% correction in April or a 20% upswing through June would each make big differences in these numbers, (2) they assume 2.2% long-term inflation so 2.2% nominal is 0.0% real. (2) their method uses a fairly simple regression to the mean for two factors: profits and prices. That is, they assume that aggregate corporate profitability in the future will be about equal to aggregate corporate profitability in the past and that investors in the future are willing to pay about as much for $1 of profits (earnings) as investors in the past did.
    If you assume that things are different this time (because of the internet, the Chinese, emerging markets consumers, fracking or benign uses of financial engineering) and that we're reached a "permanently high plateau" in corporate profitability and investor comfort, then their projections would obviously be reduced to readings from a Ouija board.
    It does, I think, feed the ongoing discussions here about the future of 60/40 portfolios as safe havens and how to think about positioning your portfolio.
    For what interest it holds,
    David
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    and at 5:00pm what would you do with that information? Just curious? Something you can do that you can't do at open of the market the next day......or are you just bored?
    I'm in a learning mode
  • Meb Faber: What A Great Time To Be An Investor !
    FYI: There has been a lot of press lately on the roboadvisors, largely due to the fact that Schwab entered the market this week with their Intelligent Portfolio service that charges a 0% management fee (but invests in their own ETFs). If you haven’t been reading my blog since 2006, I have written many times on their development and in general I am very positive on the emergence of the robos (and the non-robos like Vanguard). I even mentioned a handful of the automated investment services in my new book Global Asset Allocation. There is a lot of misinformation so I thought I would make a few comments below.
    - See more at: http://mebfaber.com/2015/03/10/what-a-great-time-to-be-an-investor/#sthash.d6hMQkle.dpuf
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://mebfaber.com/2015/03/10/what-a-great-time-to-be-an-investor/
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    @ MFO Members: Mutual Fund NAV's are reported at 4:45 PM CDST, and are available at MarketWatch.Com at that time.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today
    The previous webcast is available on DoubleLine's website so I assume this one will be also. During the webcast they mentioned 3-5 days, not specifically related to making it available on their website but for sending it to people who requested it by email and I assume they'll put it on their website at the same time.
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Dear Lizzie,
    Thanks very much for your post.
    One of the themes that we have observed for quite some time now is that when a fund price has not been updated by Morningstar, it has been updated by Yahoo Finance.
    I appreciate your explanation that you are dependent on the fund company to supply you with the latest price update:
    "Some fund companies are slower to provide all fund data, or data on individual funds. Generally 75% of fund companies have directly given us their updated NAVs by 7pm. By 9:15, we’ve heard from 90% of fund companies, and by midnight 99%."
    It would appear that fund companies must be providing Yahoo Finance their updated price more rapidly than they supply it to Morningstar.
    What would be the explanation for this?
    Or is Yahoo Finance simply processing and posting the information more rapidly than Morningstar is?
    Another issue is that we have many examples where on a Saturday, Morningstar is still showing the Thursday price for some funds. Yet Yahoo Finance is showing the updated Friday's closing price.
    What would be the explanation for that?
    One would think that fund companies would be supplying updated prices to multiple sources simultaneously.
    thanks very much Lizzie
    p.s. it's not only Yahoo Finance that does a much better job with price updates than Morningstar. For example, if one goes onto brokerage sites, such as Schwab, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, etc, one can also find much more timely price updates than Morningstar is able to provide.
    What is the reason for that? How are they able to accomplish what Morningstar is having such a difficult time with?
    thank you very much
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Hi All,
    My name is Lizzie, and I work in client service at Morningstar. I wanted to provide the share an explanation from our Product Manager for Morningstar.com regarding why we occasionally see delayed pricing updates on Morningstar.com.
    On a typical day we start receiving open-end fund data at 5:15pm CST with the majority of fund NAVs in by 7pm. Some fund companies are slower to provide all fund data, or data on individual funds. Generally 75% of fund companies have directly given us their updated NAVs by 7pm. By 9:15, we’ve heard from 90% of fund companies, and by midnight 99%. If the data deviates greatly from what we’ve seen in the past, we embargo the update until a data analyst can review it. This is usually completed shortly after midnight CST. We are reviewing with our data team ways to minimized this disruption, either by expedited reviews or tighter QA flags.
    Our internal targets are to have 75% of NAVs and prices updated by 6pm CST, 85% by 7pm and 95% by 8pm. Quality of data is pursued over speed. That said, in the last year we have improved our backend systems dramatically resulting in NAVs being published to the site around two hours quicker than in the past. There will always be exceptions from fund companies that haven’t provided updated NAVs or those that we’re giving a closer review, and whenever possible we’re working to minimize those delays.
    Thanks,
    Lizzie
  • This Is An Investor’s Worst Nightmare: The 60/40 Portfolio
    FYI: What happens if rising rates lead to a stock market sell off? Many investors were likely asking this exact question after stocks and bonds both fell last week.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/113120399658/this-is-an-investors-worst-nightmare-what
  • Large-Cap Stock Mutual Funds: Why Bother?

    That article reeks of performance-chasing to me. Yes, smallcaps outperformed, but they're also more volatile and not many people would willingly ride their dramatic ups and downs.
    If you want a SWAN (sleep well at night) portfolio I don't think you'll find it by holding the majority of it in smallcaps. For me, smallcaps represent about maybe 15% of my holdings and I'm fine with that. I'm not out to hit home runs every year when it comes to much of my long-term retirement investments ... regular base hits and occasional doubles are enough.
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    Thanks for your added note/response MJG. After some additional time to reflect here ... I'd like to add two additional but closely related questions for your consideration.
    (1) Let's say Bill who is 25 and not accustomed to saving opens an account with $50, planning on making the subsequent $50 monthly investments his fund house requires of these systematic investment plans. Three months later, having amassed $150 in investments, Bill withdraws the money and closes the account. Does Bill count as an "investor" under Dalbar's guidelines? Certainly, there are a great many like him who open accounts with the best of intentions but close them shortly after.
    (2) How does Dalbar treat members of investment clubs in their methodology? As you know, these take their pooled monies and invest in funds and other securities. Does each member, who contributed perhaps $25 a month into the investment pool, count as an individual investor? If so, it would seem a daunting task to gather data about the length of time each member participated as well as the dollar amount contributed to various funds the club owned on his behalf - as membership in these clubs is often quite fluid.
    Sorry to pester you with details - but owing to the very high esteem you appear to hold for Dalbar and the faith you profess in their methodology, I'd enjoy learning how the obstacles to arriving at precise definitive conclusions are met with .
    Thanks again.
  • Large-Cap Stock Mutual Funds: Why Bother?
    FYI: What will it take for large-cap stock mutual funds to overcome the drag of the 2000-02 bear market and their lagging ways in the 2002-07 recovery?
    Because they fared so much worse than small- and midcap funds in those periods, large-caps have lagged far behind in the past 15 years.
    How far behind? A $10,000 investment in the average large-cap fund on Dec. 31, 1999, would have grown to just $16,882 as of March 6 this year, according to Morningstar Inc. data. The same investment would have swollen to $37,912 in the average small-cap fund, $35,431 in the average midcap fund and $18,834 in the S&P 500.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTkwODI4OTE=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=webLV0310.gif&docId=742700&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=&id=742732
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today
    @AndyJ Same here.I always forget which day to put the "string around my finger".
    Have come to enjoy Mr. Gundlach's presentations.Gets me laughing at times with the irony I think he excels at.
    Take a ways:
    Janet Yellen- Time spent with foreign central bankers and the White House?
    Negative yields in Euro Zone?
    Central Banks purchases of gold? Possible $1400.00 this year.
    Retest low $40's in W T I crude.Too early to buy beaten down debt in oil patch which has rallied ytd.
    Long term demographics very scary in the next 15-35 years,especially Japan,most of Europe,and China.
    Trend is your friend,especially in fx markets.$$$$$.All DoubleLine's funds,including E M's are $$ dominated.
    Waiting for an Indian stock market correction to deploy more capital there.Long term investors-Buy India,put it in a safe for 20 years-Enjoy your foresight! Very compelling demographics.
    When will the "Block Head" game end? 2019-22 shows extreme bond maturities.Interest rates at that time ??? Government debt service?
    Despite asset/product expansion,Gundloch expects to continue DoubleLine's out performance.He appreciates the concern for his well being though !
    Higher taxes coming,especially the very rich.Has 15% percent of his personal assets in muni's, especially California.Very comfy with that asset. Puerto Rico's debt will get across the goal line.Very compelling for high tax bracketeers.(he implies these tax advantages may be reduced in the future) I R A's ???.
    @Scott Skeptical of old line auto manufacturers.The urban Millennials embrace a carless future with an on demand driverless car available in 30 ?? seconds.Mentioned Uber. Tesla,Apple??
    Housing weakness? At least not very strong.
    I own DLENX.
  • Turner Titan Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006783/000110465915018505/a15-6522_1497.htm
    497 1 a15-6522_1497.htm 497
    TURNER FUNDS
    TURNER TITAN FUND
    Supplement dated March 10, 2015
    to the Prospectus dated January 31, 2015
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS. THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On February 27, 2015, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Turner Funds determined to close and liquidate the Turner Titan Fund (the “Fund”), effective on or about April 30, 2015. The Fund had previously been scheduled to close and liquidate on or about March 13, 2015. In connection with the pending liquidation, the Fund discontinued accepting orders for the purchase of Fund shares or exchanges into the Fund from other Turner Funds after the close of business on January 30, 2015.
    On or around the close of business on April 30, 2015, the Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Prior to that time, the proceeds from the liquidation of portfolio securities will be invested in cash equivalent securities or held in cash. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective.
    BECAUSE THE FUND WILL BE CLOSED AND LIQUIDATED ON OR ABOUT April 30, 2015, WE RECOMMEND THAT YOU CONSIDER SELLING OR EXCHANGING YOUR SHARES PRIOR TO THAT DATE. You may exchange shares of the Fund for any other Turner Fund open to new investors. You may sell or exchange shares on any business day by contacting us directly by mail, telephone (1-800-224-6312) or via our website (www.turnerinvestments.com). If you invest through a financial institution, you should contact the financial institution for more information on how to sell or exchange your shares. If you still hold shares of the Fund on or about April 30, 2015, we will automatically redeem your shares for cash and remit the proceeds to you (via check or wire) based on the instructions listed on your account.
    The sale, exchange or liquidation of your shares will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation.
    Please contact the Turner Funds’ Investors Services team at 1-800-224-6312 for more information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    (TUR-FS-30-06)
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today

    Please join us for a live webcast titled "Blockhead" hosted by:
    Jeffrey Gundlach
    Mr. Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).
    Tuesday, March 10, 2015
    1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET
    Click Here to Register
    https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1051149