FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mfwire.com/common/artprint2007.asp?storyID=50675&wireid=2
M* Hodges Funds: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/hodges/0C00001YRK/fund-list.aspx

Hi Junkster,
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. Why? Because I believe there is good value to be had in these areas; and, they are currenly selling for lower P/E Ratio multiples when compaired to others.
I wish you and all the others MFO members the very best in 2015.
Old_Skeet

Old Skeet, not necessarily my take as I blow with the wind - here today gone tomorrow. At my age, assets, and spending habits my preference going forward would be to be either 100% junk corporates or 100% junk munis or 100% cash. I freed up less than 10% yesterday from my 100% junk munis because I think junk corporates look intriguing (just need more of an upward trend) and always being a believer in the January effect like the diversified emerging markets. Would like to establish positions there and then add (quickly) if indeed they are the place to be in 2015. But I worry about everything, like can U.S. stocks make it seven years in a row or can rates here keep declining.

@heezsafe:
Re: "Okay, let's get to the obvious question: why would you ever pay the government to borrow from you?"
1. To keep another government from taking it away (taxes, fees, penalties)
2. To keep others from taking it (thieves, fiduciaries, litigants)
3. To hide its existence from others.
4. To diversify among a variety of different currencies.
5. For possible appreciation of that currency in relation to others or to a "market-basket" of goods.
6. Liquidity - To have it readily available for investment in other Swiss bonds, institutions, or financial instruments when opportunities arise.
7. Because the borrower (in this case Switzerland) is viewed as more stable than any other place you can think of to store your wealth.

Morn'in @Junkster and @Old_Skeet and @fundalarm
Okay, both of you (Junkster/Old_Skeet) are looking to the emerging market area and I presume in a broadbased manner, not country or area specific, yes? But you are, looking at the better performing funds as of late, and/or the one's that have been beaten down the most in the past year. Is my presumption somewhat correct?
Now, and this has been falling into place for the last year or so; are the currency wars that have come to be in place.
I will use the Euro as a sample; as it has finally started to break its higher price that has been in place for too long (don't know who/what has been giving the support).
One buys fund "x", a Eurozone fund, 3 months ago using $US's. At the time (Oct 23, 2014) the dollar would purchase 1.27 worth of Euro denominated shares. If one were to sell today, the expectation would be selling this Eurozone fund, would be to receive a 1.16 Euro per $US value on the sale. EDIT: Euro now at $1.12 this Friday morning, -2% or so).
Per reference charts, this is the value of the Euro to the $US: (before move to $1.12)
---1 week = -3.3%
---I month = -8%
---3 month = -11.5%
If I were buying foreign/emerging markets funds today; I would have to have strong consideration to currency moves today; moreso than 1 year ago and even moreso than years ago. WisdomTree's hedged etf's would be my first look; although many do not like etf's; I would find this would be the path to travel at this time. I would expect that these fund types have found more money flows recently. DBEU (+4% YTD) and HEDJ (+7.5% YTD) are the first to come to mind, relative to Europe.
I apply the Euro example to also be a consideration for other currencies that are part of the emerging markets countries.
Lastly, isn't it ironic that the U.S. now has some of the highest yields on a 10 year note, globally, especially when adding the safety factor? Excepting the hurting countries; i.e., Russia, Venezuela, (oil and commodity countries). One may make a lot of money, when crude prices rebound; buying Venezuela 10 year bond/notes.
Global 10 year yield data
New money flows at this house may move more into real estate funds; which is currently at about 11% of the total portfolio.
Please let me know if I have "cranial/rectal inversion" in this viewpoint.
Just my 2 cents worth.

College costs have soared through the roof and then some. The 529s have helped millions get their college education. Now 0bama wants to basically trash the whole program.
One comparison to note is the Catholic school system. They educate students at a fraction of what the government and taxpayers pay into the public school system. Their students also have a higher achievement level.

Hi Junkster,
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. Why? Because I believe there is good value to be had in these areas; and, they are currenly selling for lower P/E Ratio multiples when compaired to others.
I wish you and all the others MFO members the very best in 2015.
Old_Skeet

FYI: (Its that time of year again !)
The New England Patriots could deflate the stock market in 2015.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/22/super-bowl-predictor-says-patriots-could-deflate-the-stock-market/tab/print/

FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
Obama Touts Proposal as Means to Restructure Student Aid, but Critics See Challenges for Middle Class.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/push-to-tax-529-plans-stokes-debate-over-income-student-aid-1421958694?mod=WSJ_Your_Money_3up
Original Thread 2 Pages:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/18444/obama-wants-to-reduce-tax-breaks-for-529-plans/p1

Hmmm, looking at the past decade's real returns, commodities appear to have been "somewhat of an outlier." :) (h/t to Joshua Brown for posting this figure, cranked out by Research Affiliates’ Chris Brightman, on The Reformed Broker blog site yesterday as his Chart O' The Day)

@hank I think everyone should find another horizon and dispense with the wishful thinking. Hope is not an investment strategy.
This lifted today from a WaPo story and posted to Barry Ritholtz's blogsite by commenter RW:
This is mind-blowing: You have to pay Switzerland to lend it money
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/21/this-is-mind-blowing-you-have-to-pay-switzerland-to-lend-it-money/
This isn’t really new, though, so much as Europe’s new normal. As the Financial Times points out, €1.2 trillion, or $1.4 trillion, of eurozone debt has negative yields that mean lenders are paying borrowers. But what it is new is just how long people are willing to pay governments to borrow. At first, they only did so for 1-or-2-year bonds. Then, in a sign of how dysfunctional Europe’s economy still is, investors started paying Germany to borrow for five or six years. But now, as you can see above, Switzerland has beaten everyone else to be the first to have negative ten year borrowing costs, at -0.2 percent. And by “first,” I mean in history. This has never happened before.
IMO, this is not a time to be filling all your asset allocation boxes. If you think the U.S. is tapped out and you need to find more fertile fields, Europe looks like a bad destination. It is a mess and getting worse, and the euro is a basket case (and sterling isn't too far behind). The race to debase is on, and currency warfare is now obvious. I see no upside to converting/exchanging, directly or indirectly, my US dollars/dollar assets for something international right now, and becoming Wiley Coyote past the cliff edge in the blink of an eye.

Education is like the housing bubble:
Both were touted as a positive by Gov't, housing/Education industry and Wall Street.
Since the 1930s Gov't has provided programs to help housing in the hope it would help the economy.
Gov't has many programs for both.
Wall street makes money on both.
Housing or the Education system makes money
Yet in the housing bubble busting many buyers and bond holders lost money.
The current education bubble has not burst yet. But, many students are saddled with huge debts.
Many might attempt to praise education for success. But, that is like driving a car by only looking in the rear view mirror.
The Vets earned their benefits. It is in no way similar to the gov't and other programs associated with housing or education.
May be if parents had to write out a monthly check (instead of property taxes) for pre college schooling it would be better and client/student focused. Now education is there for the benefit of the Educational Industrial Complex (thank you Eisenhower).

Well Dex, you just explained why 529 and ALL federal programs for college should be scrapped. All it is doing is increasing the price of college. The only way colleges are able to raise prices at 3 times price of inflation is getting gullible people like me to spend every penny on 529,etc. Without 529s, loans ,etc, colleges would have to innovate. Most people who have gone to UC schools could have met at conference rooms in Holiday Inn and received the same education. Pay the professors directly, cut out the middle man??
Today, the GI Bill is completely abused by the for profit colleges that provide minimal education or job opportunities. Why are the prices for these for profit colleges so darn high. Because of the GI Bill and Gov't subsidized loans that can't be written off in bankruptcy. Instead of encouraging community colleges and state schools, the military allows the for profit college to sucker punch the enlisted as well as the taxpayers.
Listen to a director of military education programs for a not-for-profit, private college:
"Providing $100 gift cards to government employees as a “thank you” for inviting the college they represent to an education fair should only be defended in a judicial court. Enrolling traumatic brain injury-wounded warriors into an online program without providing necessary support for that wounded warrior to even have a chance of success, in my opinion, borders on the criminal as well. Dismal completion rates, poor job placement of the few graduates who make it through the college, maximum student loan debt ratios and repeated Department of Education fines for everything from outright Pell Grant fraud to nefarious recruitment practices leaves little to defend; however, it would behoove all institutions to look critically at what for-profit colleges are doing right, before dismissing them altogether."
http://www.military.com/education/finding-a-school/in-defense-of-for-profit-colleges.html
Sorry, it is just too rife for abuse, must be shut down.
Like the saying that variable annuities are sold not bought, so too are these for profit schools.

With respect to furrin' stuff, SFGIX is my best current performer. I came close to cutting loose from MAPIX due to the dividend issue, but now that's up 2.8% YTD, so looking decent. If they resume dividends will most likely stay with that one too. Of course, using YTD is a purely arbitrary time frame, and essentially meaningless, as shown by a look at the "reversals" in SFGIX, ARTGX, GPROX, and MAPIX since the beginning of this year.
YTD:
SFGIX 3.4%
WAFMX -1.3%
ARTGX -0.2%
GPROX -0.4%
MAPIX 2.8%
Last year's results:
SFGIX -0.9%
WAFMX 0.6%
ARTGX 3.9%
GPROX 6.4%
MAPIX 0.5%
... which was a pretty sorry set of numbers, compared to the US stuff. The foreign stuff comprises about 23% of the portfolio, and in aggregate was up a huge +0.06% last year, and YTD is also +0.06%.
Some days I want to just send all of my money to Ted and let him run with it. :-(

I'm working on how reading the prepared answers to cherry-picked questions off old 3x5 cards qualifies as "a conference call." Here's a hint: it's almost impossible for answers given spontaneously to survive compliance review (advisers have tried it with our calls). If the transcript is, indeed, only edited "for clarity," it means nothing was said that wasn't drawn from, or able to be incorporated into, a marketing brochure.
(sigh)

Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme Capital Management's Founder, Managing Member, and Chief Investment Officer, will host a one-hour conference call on February 3, 2015, at 11 AM ET. Fred Fraenkel, Fairholme’s President and Chief Research Officer, will also participate. The purpose of the call is to give the public the opportunity to engage with the firm, understand its strategies and holdings and raise questions or topics for discussion.
On the call, Mr. Berkowitz will address comments and questions submitted in advance by the public. Fairholme will accept questions and/or comments until Wednesday, January 28 at 5 PM ET. All topics for discussion may be submitted electronically to [email protected]. Please note that submissions will remain anonymous. Live stream details and a transcript of the call edited for clarity will be made available at www.fairholmefunds.com.

@MFO Members: The curent report Gross put #700 million of his own money into the fund.
regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-22/gross-put-more-than-700-million-in-unconstrained-fund.html

FYI: Asset manager T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) said on Thursday that its head of fixed income, Michael Gitlin, has resigned and will take the same role at rival fund company Capital Group.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/01/22/t-rowe-prices-fixed-incom-chief-gitlin-moves-to-capital-group/tab/print/

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-rise-in-advance-of-ecb-move-1421930337
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2015-01-22/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-on-ecb-stimulus-speculation.html
Reuters Slant:
http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0KV18D20150122
MarketWatch Slant:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-inch-up-ahead-of-ecb-meeting-jobless-claims-due-2015-01-22/print
WSJ Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Current Futures :http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FYI: Mutual funds focused on paying dividends to income-minded investors outperformed the S&P 500 for much of the past 10 years.
But dividend funds have lagged since early 2013. A $10,000 investment in the average dividend mutual fund on Dec. 31, 2004, would have grown to $19,186 by Jan. 20 this year, according to Morningstar Inc. data. The same amount put in the S&P 500 would have $20,592 sitting in it now
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg4NzgzNTU=
Enlarged Graphic;
http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv012215.jpg&docId=735669&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=735579

FYI: Vanguard won’t just come out and tell you that any of its funds aren’t top-notch. No fund company will — not when their goal is to sell you their products.
But I will.
I still think Vanguard is the best fund family around, but even the best isn’t perfect. Some of Vanguard’s funds are nurtured by expert managers and grow to be profit-building stars, but others are misguided, whether by poor managers or a fundamentally flawed investment strategy. These funds can doom your portfolio to mediocrity — or worse, major losses. And worst of all: Most investors don’t realize these funds are subpar
Regards,
Ted
http://investorplace.com/2015/01/5-vanguard-funds-vtmsx-vgpmx-vustx-vmnfx-vexmx/print