Volatility this morning is remarkable. I'm seeing 50-100 point moves up/down in a matter of a few minutes.

@Tony: ProShares Short S&P 500 up .90 % as we speak.
Regards,
Ted

FYI: When the stock market is falling, mutual funds with low beta — sensitivity to movements in the benchmark index — should do better, right?
Not necessarily. Funds with the lowest 3-year beta have generated a variety of returns in the past three years and over shorter terms
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1NjQ0OTI=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WMUTpent101614.gif&docId=722014&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=721922

I'm curious to see when/if ARIVX buys. The manager stayed more than 50% cash through the 2011 correction, when small value went down over 20%. He's made clear he's looking for a major, 2008 style crash. If we get it, he'll look like a genius, as he did in 2008-9.
I'm skeptical that people can get calls like that right more than once or twice in a lifetime, but if he does, or if he proves flexible and buys in on a mere 10-20% correction, I will eat humble pie.
I don't think he's evil, and I did well in my brief time in the fund, but I think that, like Hussman, he's got rigid beliefs and refuses to mark them to market. But I hope I'm wrong for all the ARIVX investors our there, and I hope he's wrong about a 50% crash for the sake of the rest of us.

Some gorgeous scenery on Amtrak that you wouldn't see on the road, but yeah, long stretches in coach are definitely not easy.
The other issue that people aren't focusing on is the fact that Greece is breaking down (to put it lightly) again.
Greece:
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/522687721488539648/photo/1

Basically, you had generation one of L/S funds where managers often seemed to feel required to have a bunch of longs and a bunch of shorts. Either the funds didn't do that much of anything or didn't do that well. Then you started to have funds able to dial up and down risk more significantly and able to actually participate more in the markets. Now people are upset when the markets are down 7% or so and the funds were not able to move in a week or two.
They're not hedge funds, if you think they are going to dramatically change their holdings in a week's time, you're going to be disappointed. L/S funds are not going to shield you from every move lower in a market. If the market moves lower over months and over the course of 6-9 months they pull a "it's bad, not our fault market sucks", then yeah, that's a problem.
Funds like Pimco's All Asset/All Authority are upsetting because they're too conservative until they're not. People act like the manager of ARIVX is an evil lunatic for holding near 75% cash until this happens and the fund is suddenly near the very top of its category YTD and MTD and now I'll guess people are probably scrambling back into it. If things suddenly change for the better, those people will be all upset again.
Pimco Managed Futures has done astonishingly well. I can guarantee you that there will be a period where it's positioned wrong and people will be upset and dump it. That said, I remain rather fascinated by a managed futures mutual fund that is doing better than some managed futures hedge funds. It is also ahead of its category average by about 11%.

I have FVALX which does not call itself a hedged equity fund but does same thing in times manager deems bad. Needless to say M* classifies it as L/s. What a joke.

Doing better than Hussman, with a much simpler strategy that likely leads to far less costs for shareholders - it's what I've thought Hussman should be doing for a few years now: if you're that bearish, stop holding things like Panera and having a complex options hedging strategy and go to mostly cash and things like Walgreens.

Looks like they are all in. Not what I would have expected from a L/S fund.
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=RGHVX

Most L/S funds are heavily invested. People weren't happy with L/S funds that were basically close to market neutral, now you have ones that can be more long and .... most of them are.

FYI: There’s been a debate in recent years about whether target-date funds expose investors saving for retirement to too much risk at the point they are leaving the workforce.
Now Rob Arnott, a respected investor and researcher, is raising concerns about the aggressiveness of the target funds designed for the youngest workers.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/10/15/target-funds-are-too-risky-for-youngest-workers-arnott/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F10%2F15%2Ftarget-funds-are-too-risky-for-youngest-workers-arnott%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121

Yeah, and they literally moved 50 points lower in the span of a few minutes not that long ago.
Trains are a wonderful way to travel and I love trains in general, but you're still stuck in an enclosed space and for even longer (although admittedly, air not recirculated and it makes stops.) Amtrak isn't actually that expensive but it really depends on how far/where to/from. Amtrak USED to have unbelievable deals on their website for non-refundable tickets, but unfortunately they did away with that.
Anyways, got a few dividends today, will get a bunch more before month end. Basically, turning into a dividend machine where I get a number of dividends throughout every month has really made days like yesterday much less stressful. I'm not saying this is for everyone, I'm not saying it's the only way to invest, but just for me - yes, yesterday wasn't fun, but I didn't panic and added to a few things. Felt a lot calmer than I would have used to on a day where the market was -450 at one point.
Days like yesterday are good in a way for the buy and hold investor from the standpoint of it really makes you evaluate how strongly you feel about a position.

FYI: Among the hottest corners of the stock market in recent years have been energy focused master limited partnerships. But amid the recent tumult, MLPs have been one of the hardest hit corners of the market and it’s not entirely clear why.
One MLP specialist guesses that “newbie” investors in these complicated stocks are to blame.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/15/mlps-have-been-getting-crushed-blame-the-newbies/tab/print/

Just checked the futures, never mind my comment above. Futures have gone red.
Dow -151
SP -18.80
Nas -42.25

This thread is a running commentary of today's market moves, reports, and surprises.
Futures are somewhat tame so far this morning. They have been on both sides of the fence. Oil prices seem to be hot topic. Energy sector has been clobbered with no end in site. In the meantime, bonds are enjoying the ride.
As part of my profit sweeping, I moved some into TWUSX. by the time I am done I should be between 55-60% equities.
It will be interesting to see how the airline stocks react. The ebola factor is a emotional one. In the US, the other options for travel are less enticing. Greyhound anyone? Trains do have their allure but the time to go cross country is a killer, plus you could probably fly for a much cheaper price.
As I mentioned in another thread, if another ebola affected person pops up, things could get very grim.
All the best to everyone.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102091651
Traders were stunned by the move. Most of the talk centered around the Fed's ending of the QE program.
Well, the end of QE has been widely announced for some time now. That should not be a shock to anyone. I am curious how this is a bear capitulation?

@Kaspa. The bubble area is a trading volume indicator relative it 50 day average. Solid means the trading volume is greater than 50 day average. Hollow means it is less than 50 day average. So, a big solid bubbles mean volume is several times the 50 day average. Small bubbles mean average volume. Nothing too scientific. Just a visual aid.

I rarely read the talking heads because (and you learn this after almost 50 years in the game) they know absolutely nothing more than me, you, or the man in the moon. They just understand the art of articulation combined with a little bit of knowledge. Too bad knowledge isn't a marker for being a successful trader/investor. I could only skim through the verbiage but as John Wayne alluded to before " new bull market in bonds" ????? Has this talking head been on vacation all year??? And a sea change???? Haven't Treasuries this year already been saying a sea change????
Now let's see if those intraday lows in the 10 year hold or now that the talking heads are believers that yields gradually begin to tick up.

I'm on sale. Please send me $9.99 a month and I will tell you what to buy / sell :D
I hope everyone has created shopping list. Personally I will start buying a little at 10% down if it keeps falling DCA every 5-10% further. Know what you are buying and how much you want to put in each position. Some MFs have high minimums, so those I will not buy until 20% decline off highs.
I have been steadily selling and generating cash. Wish I had sold more, but that's hindsight. However I'm glad I sold. I can confidently say today I am not in love with ANY of my holdings.
Here's a sampling of my shopping list: BRAGX, BRSIX, SEEDX, GOODX, BVOAX, PROVX, TSELX, TFSSX, MXXVX.

FYI: U.S. stocks tumbled in wild trading Wednesday, briefly sending the Dow industrials down more than 400 points and investors scrambling to buy safe-haven government bonds.
Regards,
Ted
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-extend-declines-after-data-1413377586#printMode
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us

"oil is being used as a political tool" ??
How cynical! You really think that the Saudis, Iraqis, Kurds, Russians, Chinese, Venezuelans or Americans would ever resort to that sort of thing?

It works until it doesn't and when it doesn't, it likely gets disorderly (possibly because one of the players gets backed into a corner?) If it is the case with multiple countries participating, it also feels desperate. Maybe it's being driven lower in advance of another QE - what would that make this one, #4 or #5?

Trying to claw it's way back up... be interesting to see where this goes.

CNBC talking about hedge funds in liquidation mode. It would not surprise me. You saw the move up earlier this morning only to see a wave of selling into it. I added a little to long-term holdings throughout the day but I see nothing positive in the short-term unless 1) Yellen comes out with a new movie called "From Here to QEternity" or 2) earnings are considerably more positive than expected. With Citigroup down 4.3% and JPM 4.5% after earnings this morning (the latter was down nearly 7% at one point today), the second one is not looking real good.

Okay, I'll bite. Why does an index fund close? Too low AUM? This one comes in one size only - institutional (but with a "modest" $250K min, not restricted to institutions).
Maybe they want to limit it to retirement plans and the like? (That's how American Beacon started out - as AAdvantage funds, designed for the AA retirement plan.)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000080959314000116/ieisoftclose.htm
497 1 ieisoftclose.htm
American Beacon International Equity Index Fund
Supplement dated October 15, 2014
To the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2014
The information below supplements the Prospectus dated April 30, 2014 and is in addition to any other supplement(s):
The following information is inserted at the end of the section titled "Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" on page 9 of the Prospectus and page 4 of the Summary Prospectus is deleted and replaced with the following:
The American Beacon International Equity Index Fund (the "Fund") will close to new investors as of the close of business on December 31, 2014. Existing shareholders as of that date may continue to purchase, redeem or exchange shares of the Fund on any business day, which is any day the New York Stock Exchange is open for business.
The following information is inserted as the final paragraph to the section titled "Purchase and Redemption of Fund Shares – Eligibility" on page 18 of the Prospectus:
Effective as of the close of business on December 31, 2014, the Fund will close to new investors. The Fund will continue to accept additional investments (including reinvestments of dividends and capital gain distributions) from: (1) existing shareholders of the Fund who had open accounts as of December 31, 2014; or (2) participants in most qualified retirement plans if the Fund was designated as an investment option as of December 31, 2014. Investors through financial intermediaries who did not have a funded position through the intermediary by December 31, 2014 may not invest in the Fund after that date.