Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System
    TOLSX is also no load at Schwab with an ER of 1.25%
  • ASG Diversifying Strategies Fund has liquidated
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/52136/000119312514302109/d771285d497.htm
    497 1 d771285d497.htm NATIXIS FUNDS TRUST II
    ASG DIVERSIFYING STRATEGIES FUND
    Supplement dated August 8, 2014 to the ASG Diversifying Strategies Fund Class A, C and Y Prospectus and the Natixis Funds Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2014, as may be revised and supplemented from time to time.
    On August 8, 2014, the ASG Diversifying Strategies Fund (the “Fund”) was liquidated.
    The Fund no longer exists, and as a result, shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase or exchange.
  • Which Way For The 10-Year Yield ? Poll
    @Old_Joe: This is a sideshow, don't let this deter you from investing.
    The 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR +0.37% yield, which falls as prices rise, was down half a basis point at 2.420%, the lowest close since June 2013. The yield fell as low as 2.350% overnight, according to Tradeweb. It’s down 8.5 basis points in the week.
    (Source): MarketWatch
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Oversold Everywhere
    I'm not much of a technical guy, but interested enough to have questions without a lot of answers. The Bespoke guys are looking at a 50 days moving average and Bollinger bands around that. It seems the most typical moving average for Bollinger bands would be a 20 day moving average. Is there any reason one or the other, or something else for that matter, should be a better indicator of what's likely to happen this time?
  • More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System
    I have access to the S class shares, which seem to have no load and an expense ratio that gets close to the institutional shares.
    I also own TOLSX through my brokerage.
    image
    I find "D" shares at pimco and "N" shares at Janus and TCW and "Z" shares at Columbia are all investor share often NTF.
    Some funds have both NTF share class and a TF share class...I will sometimes consider TF shares class if I plan on holding the position for a longer time frame.
    Also TRP and Fidelity offer Advisor shares that are often NTF, but with a higher ER than the non-advisor shares (say for instance PRWCX vs PACLX).
    It always has to do with costs...either Loads, Expense Ratios, 12-1 fees, early redemption fees, etc.
    Some brokerage houses only offers the load or TF share class of a particular fund while some have FUNDX.lw (load waive) versions. These often are the institutional classes.
    Very confusing isn't it?
    I'm sure I missed something...lots to know when it comes to the slicing and dicing the mutual fund world.
  • Oversold Everywhere
    Thanks for that observation, Ted. I have been watchful, but not panicking---particularly through the global mayhem involving airplanes shot down and the Russian Penis ---oops, I mean Putin--- causing such a stink, and so many deaths in Ukraine. (Why is it improper any longer to refer to THE Ukraine? I just read that, elsewhere.) Portfolio is down from an all-time high level just more than 2% through all of this. If things manage to "bounce" in the days to come, I'll be glad. My european fund PRESX does not like what's happening at all. I bought that fund last November, mid-month. It's dipped below 15% of portfolio, today.
  • More on the Portfolio Sleeve Management System
    Hey there Skeet- well, as you can see I don't break it down to the degree of granularity that you do- I just grouped the whole mess into those four general areas. I'm thinking that if I break it down even further I'll spend more time than it's worth worrying about the whole thing.
    As life turned out, with both of us retired for some ten years now our combined pension and SS income is more than enough to meet our needs. We have a very large cash "reserve" of about 50% of our NW, which is in addition to the portfolio given above. The portfolio constitutes about 25% of our NW, and is structured so as to provide enough income/appreciation to offset the inflation which is eating away at the non-invested cash. Also, the portfolio is designed to provide approximately half of the volatility of the S&P, limiting both it's potential upside and downside swings.
    The remaining 25% of our NW is the conservative resale value of our weekend home. The value of our home in SF is not included in any of these calculations. Both properties are mortgage free, and we have no debt of any kind. Very conservative, but we have no problem sleeping at night.
    OJ
  • Oversold Everywhere
    FYI: As shown below, the S&P 500 closed yesterday at the very bottom of oversold territory in our trading range chart, meaning it is two standard deviations below its 50-day. It has gotten down to this level once over the past year (back in February), and it bounced nicely then. As you can see in the chart below, while the index has taken a dip recently, it is still trading within its long-term uptrend. Obviously trading over the next week or so will be key.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/7/oversold-everywhere.html?printerFriendly=true
  • a quick update on Ted
    Reply to davidmoran:
    No. Reposting neither understands nor "misunderstands". :-). I think it's clear from his above comment about "intention" that there's something missing in Ted's view of copyright. It's much more complex than simple "intention" as the preponderance of views here (including those of the site moderator and the author in question) have made clear. Tigerman3 linked a whole series of court decisions as well. To try to boil it down to "intention" is a gross oversimplification of copyright law. (I know first hand that telling a police officer I didn't "intend" to exceed the speed limit or run through a red light doesn't get me very far.)
    I'm at a disadvantage here. Hadn't been following the board very closely before all this blew up. Hadn't seen the Braham post in question. I assume it was taken down or modified after Mr. Braham protested. Davidmoran: Could you clarify a few things here for me?
    Three questions.
    (1) Did Ted cut and copy all or the majority of the Braham piece?
    (2) Did Ted include a link back to the original Braham source?
    (3) Did Ted name the author somewhere in all of this?
    Here's what I think most reasonable folks with a basic understanding of copyright would say.
    #1 Republishing verbatim (as on a public website) more than 50% of an article exceeds any normal definition of "excerpting" for educational purposes, which the law allows. It is instead wholesale copying. While the laws are somewhat ambiguous. such wholesale copying carries a much higher risk of civil litigation than merely excerpting short portions would.
    #2 Republishing verbatim without providing full attribution (internet link in this case) is wrong and runs the risk of civil litigation.
    #3 Failure to name the author wold be intellectually dishonest and may also be a violation of copyright.
    Davidmoran: Your experience in the publishing industry makes you uniquely qualified to address this. Actually, I was hoping to hear more from you. Thanks for any thoughts.
    Yep - my tirade was delayed because I didn't want to criticize Ted while he was away from the board. I waited until he had returned. I hope he continues to post. It's clear many find his links of value.
  • Old Skeet's Favorite Links, Portfolio Investment Sleeve Management System and More
    The below links will provide data and current information on how things are looking along with possibly a few featured articles from time-to-time. Last update 12/20/2015
    Markets At A Glance (WSJ) ... http://markets.wsj.com/usoverview
    (Click on the Market News tab for the morning, mid morning, mid day and closing report.)
    P/E Ratios & Yields On Major Indexes ... http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
    The Futures … http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    (Don't forget to click the news tab.)
    Morningstar's Fair Value Graph ... http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
    (Don't forget to look at this by sector.)
    Morningstar's Category Returns ... http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
    (Updated Daily)
    Morningstar's Instant Xray ... http://portfolio.morningstar.com/Rtport/Free/InstantXrayDEntry.aspx?entrynum=10
    Lipper Mutual Fund Indexes ... http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-lipperindx.html
    Lipper Mutual Fund Yardsticks ... http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-fundyrdstick.html
    Mutual Fund Observer ... http://www.mutualfundobserver.com
    Old Skeet's Favorite Links (2/19/2016) ... http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/14955/old-skeet-s-favorite-links-portfolio-investment-sleeve-management-system-and-more#latest
    Mutual Fund Research Monthly Newsletter ... http://funds-newsletter.com/
    Invest With An Edge ... Leadership Strategy & Weekly Newsletter ... http://investwithanedge.com/
    (Leadership Stretegy updates every Monday & the newsletter every Wednesday)
    Moose Signal ... http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html
    (Updated Weekly on Monday)
    Investment Strategy (Jeffery Saut) ... http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
    (Up dates every Monday around noon)
    Crossing Wall Street ... http://www.crossingwallstreet.com
    (Weekly Market Review every Friday)
    Advisor Perspectives ... http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/index.php
    Trader Mike's Daily Recap ... http://www.stocktradingtogo.com
    Sector Rotations ... http://blog.afraidtotrade.com
    FallondPicks ... http://www.markets.fallondpicks.com
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old Skeet
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    I have been asked for information, from time-to-time, on my Portfolio Investment Sleeve Management System. I am providing this infomation with my asset allocation ranges. It is detailed below.
    Old Skeet's Portfolio Investment Sleeve Managment System (2/19/2016)
    Here is a brief description of my sleeve system which I organized to help better manage the investments that were held in five accounts. The accounts consist of a taxable account, a self directed ira account, a 401k account, a profit sharing account and a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves. … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve and a specialty/theme sleeve plus a ballast/spiff sleeve. Each sleeve consists of three to six funds (in most cases) with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and the amounts held. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment picture and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly (somtimes more often). Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets and wish to weight accordingly. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my 401k, profit sharing, and health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to the cash area builds the cash area of the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash distribution needs with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. In addition, most all buy/sell trades settle from, or settle to, the cash area.
    Here is how I have my asset allocation is currently broken out by area and percent held ranges. Currently, my neutral/targets are cash 20%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, and growth 15%. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly (somtimes more often) and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assesment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc.
    Cash Area (Weighting Range 15% to 25% with target at set 20%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
    Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
    Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 35% with target set at 30%)
    Fixed Income Sleeve: GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: CAPAX, CTFAX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX
    Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 30% to 40% with target set at 35%)
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: BAICX, CAIBX & TIBAX
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX, NBHAX, SPQAX & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 20% with target set at 15%)
    Global Sleeve: ANWPX, PGROX & THOAX
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, IACLX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AJVAX, PCVAX & PMDAX
    Specialty/Theme Sleeve: LPEFX, PGUAX, TOLLX, NEWFX & THDAX
    Ballast/Spiff Sleeve: FISCX, VADAX & VNVAX
    Total number of mutual fund investment positions equal forty seven.
    I am providing a link to another investment sleeve management system of FMD Capital. This is definitely worth the read ... and, I have linked it below for your reading enjoyment. It is titled, "The Strategic Approach to Income Investing" and is written by Michael Fabian. http://fmdcapital.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FMD_Income-Investing.pdf
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Use of Three Buttons When Posting
    Yes, you're correct. In that case, the alternative might be to take a screen shot, upload it to Jing or an equivalent service, and then link to that. (This essentially converts the image to a format which the MFO Image Tool can use, and a location that MFO can access.)
    A question for you: If you are using a browser other than Firefox, can you advise me what the process is for acquiring the image address? When/if I revise the MFO User Guide that would be good info to have.
    Thanks-
    OJ
    Sure OJ. Here's how to find the URL of the image for those using Internet Explorer 11, the most recent version. (I'm using Windows 7, and not sure if those using Windows 8.1 or even Vista or XP might see something a bit different).
    Step 1: Right click the graphic image that you want to appear in your post.
    You will then see the below drop down menu. The last item in the drop down menu is Properties. Click Properties
    image
    A window appears showing the properties of the graphic image.
    image
    The red arrow points to the URL of this graphic image. Note that the file extension ("ending") is .gif
    The MFO Image tool seems to work great with the standard graphic image file extensions, like gif, jpeg, jpg and png
  • How can you find out a fund's historical AUM?
    Fidelity lists AUM for the fund class - for 10 years or so to the best of my knowledge - under the "Performance and Risk" tab on the fund's page.
    Check out fundmojo.com. Not perfect, but not bad for a free web site.
    I've attached a link for PTTRX.
    http://www.fundmojo.com/mutualfund/fund_netasset_report/mutualfund/PTTRX
    Check out fundmojo.com. Not perfect, but not bad for a free web site.
    I've attached a link for PTTRX.
    http://www.fundmojo.com/mutualfund/fund_netasset_report/mutualfund/PTTRX

    MOZART325, that's not a bad website at all. Glad you pointed that out. Has some interesting information. I'll be visiting that website more often.
    AUM data was very good but limited to about one year.
    image
    Thanks very much mrdarcey and rjb112. These seem to be the easiest to get some information about historical aum, with fundmojo having the advantage of showing it for one fund symbol across all share classes. But in a case of drastic asset bleed which one wants to avoid it would most likely show in the individual shareclass (as on the fidelity site) also.
  • How to find the best stock-picking fund managers?
    Bee said ;
    One example of a Bottom up Fund:
    valley-forge-fund/vafgx
    Very concentrated ,very little info on new manager in May 2013. Any info?Intrigued by Canadian holdings.http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=VAFGX&region=usa&culture=en-US Managed by Brian Boyle
    05/28/2013
    http://www.boylecapital.com/
    Info about the fund's 3rd largest holding from the Vancouver Sun:
    There are no takeover premiums built into Montney stocks, partly because no LNG proponent has made a final decision to proceed, Birchcliff CEO Jeffery Tonken said in an interview. Birchcliff’s pitch to investors currently is that it is a low-cost producer with big production growth from consistent drilling, he said.
    “We believe that down the road someone’s going to try to buy the resource, no doubt,” Tonken said. “But a person who invests in our company should make money just because the business is good.”
    Read more: http://bbccanada.dev.canada.com/Montney+firms+buyers+developments+take+shape/10095575/story.html#ixzz39m1rvcEx
  • Small Cap Funds Are In A Lull
    Here's my 2 cents: I took sizable small-cap profits after the New Year. That's when I look to take advantage of the kind of outperformance the small-caps showed in 2013. I redeployed the profit into one of my core, anchor funds: from MSCFX into MAPOX. 2013 was indeed a good small-cap year.
    Just today, MSCFX is 2.41% of portfolio and Vang. small-cap is 0.74% of portfolio. That's 3.15%. YTD, MSCFX is up 0.86%. (In top 12% of category) and NAESX is up 0.84%. At the moment, wonderful Morningstar is recalculating its percentile performance among small-cap peers. I guess they are "holding their own."
  • Top Index Fund Over The Long-Term: 15Years
    Nifty. A 15-year time-period is hardly ever shown. So, a REIT--- and VANGUARD, no less, at the top. Go figure.
  • Which Way For The 10-Year Yield ? Poll
    So far the results are a bit distressing from a contrarian point of view. If you asked at the beginning of January which would come first 3.50% or 2.50%, I bet you would have received something like 95% (or higher) for 3.50%. Higher rates were all but inevitable (so said the pundits) and one of the surest bets around in many a year. As an aside, and it's still early so maybe much ado about nothing but the S&P futures have fallen out of bed this evening down over 12 handles after being down even more.
  • Which Way For The 10-Year Yield ? Poll
    Currently German 10 year= 1.06%, US 10 year= 2.39% (Spread= 1.33%)
    One year ago: German= 1.69%, US= 2.58% (Spread= 0.89%)
    If spread shrinks to 89 basis points, our 10 year would be 1.95%
  • Small Cap Funds Are In A Lull
    Hi LLJB,
    Currently, my small/mid cap sleeve is up ytd 2.72% with one fund (IIVAX) in the red at -0.25% the other two funds (PCVAX & PMDAX) are up 2.11% & 4.30% respectively. I recently sold KSDVX, at a good profit, with the sale proceeds now parked as cash ballast within my demand cash sleeve awaiting future investment deployment.
    Old_Skeet
  • Small Cap Funds Are In A Lull
    My handful of US small cap funds spent most of last year leading all my funds. This year they're all at the bottom, and amazingly the best one, in the top 15% of small growth funds, has lost money this year. Ugh! I can't complain based on the longer term record, but its one of those difficult years so far for small caps.
  • Small Cap Funds Are In A Lull
    FYI: The average small-cap fund has clobbered its large-cap counterpart and the S&P 500 in the past 15 years, but it's failed to keep its lead in the stock market this year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTgzNTkwNTA=
    Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv080814.gif&docId=712324&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1062&caption=&id=712327