Hi Guys,
“Market timing is unproven.”
That quote was extracted from the FAQ section of The Decision Moose website. It is an accurate summary statement that reflects the controversy between academics and practitioners of that discipline.
I have no ponies in this horserace. So I will not personally handicap the merits of the “Market Timing with Decision Moose” methodology or its track record. I’ll defer to CXO Advisory Group for that task.
I have not done investment market timing strategies for over 2 decades, At one time, I did use methods outlined in the Edwards and Magee classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” book. I won some victories and I suffered some defeats. Overall, I suppose my outcomes were rather ho hum, and did demand a huge time commitment. I mostly shun market timing now, and feel much relieved without its pressures. It can be a task master.
Market Timing has a huge following and has an almost endless array of methods. There are more than
5,000 candidate Timing schemes. Some work for some time. The trick is to discover the appropriate technique at the appropriate time. No easy chore.
My favorite Timing website is operated by Thomas Bulkowski. I especially like his site because he summarizes methods and presents statistical data that helps to define the odds of success for many of these various procedures. Here is a Link to Bulkowski’s powerful and practical website:
http://thepatternsite.com/The question will always be: How good are these momentum-based market Timing strategies?
William Dirlam’s Decision Moose has generated reasonable results, and respectable reviews from many quarters. But anecdotal statements are not sufficient. A more formal statistical review is warranted. CXO Advisory Group just completed just such an examination. Here is a Link to CXO’s research and findings:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/2663/economic-indicators/the-decision-moose-asset-allocation-framework/Please access the reference. As usual, CXO did a very honest, unbiased, workmanlike job.
My three major takeaways from the CXO study are:
(1) The Decision Moose performance has deteriorated over time. Change in effectiveness happens.
(2) A major factor in the perceived outperformance is coupled to a single Gold call made a long time ago. Tossing away that outlier greatly reduces the purported (costs were not included) excess returns of the method.
(3) Decision Moose contrasts its performance against the S&P
500 Index as a benchmark. That is not the best benchmark since the Decision Moose chooses between 9 fund/ETF categories. A 60/40 asset mix of these same categories might be a better measure of relative performance.
The Decision Moose also postulates an All In or All Out policy. Dirlam doesn’t encourage such an extreme commitment, and I doubt if any supporters follow such a concentrated positioning. The non-diversification distorts the scoring somewhat by acting as a result magnifier.
I hope this post is helpful when evaluating the benefits and shortcomings of the Decision Moose’s forecasts. The site seems to be operated by an honest advocate of momentum investing. All this assists the marketplace’s pricing discovery mechanisms.
Thanks for introducing me to the Decision Moose website.
Best Regards.