Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions
    Thanks to OJ & davidmoran for their thoughtful and considerate thoughts.
    I agree a lot has to do with comfort level (the sleep factor as OJ put it).
    We deal with a fine local bank. If anything changed in that regard, we'd pay them off and get out fast. The two "re-fi"s in recent years went to pay for a couple additions on the house. So our equity rose along with the debt. Also, I refuse to go out farther than 15 years on a mortgage no matter how attractive the rate.
    Actually, have recently considered paying off all of the mortgage - as it's getting harder and harder to earn 3% in the bond/equity markets without going out there quite a bit on the risk curve. Am only around break-even YTD.
    So it goes.
  • Oil Prices Plummet To Three-Month Low
    FYI: Fallout from Greece’s “no” vote on whether to accept its creditors demands in exchange for bailout funds is garnering most of the attention from market watchers early Monday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/07/06/oil-prices-plummet-to-three-month-low/tab/print/
  • Knowledge@Wharton: Jeremy Siegel: How a ‘Grexit’ Could Strengthen the Eurozone: Audio & Text
    You cannot 'austere' (if that is what is meant) your way here to economic improvement or health.
    You might enjoy this (if it links ok).
    http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.zeit.de/2015/26/thomas-piketty-schulden-griechenland&prev=search
    Piketty: When I hear the Germans now say that they maintain a very moral dealing with debt and firmly believe that debts must be repaid, then I think: That's a big joke! Germany is the country that has never paid his debts. It can be obtained in other countries no lessons.
  • Josh Brown: The Broker Who Saved America
    FYI: You know Hancock and Washington and Franklin and Jefferson. You might even know Greene and Knox, Henry and Hale.
    But it is very unlikely that you know the name Haym Solomon
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/07/04/the-broker-who-saved-america-3/
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    Bee asked: "Couldn't you reinvest these dividends yourself rather than "they reinvesting dividends" for you?"
    Yes, and a lot of folks prefer to do it this way but......
    -Many like to take all their dividends/distributions in cash and then reinvest them in shares of whichever company they hold presents the most compelling value to them at that time. This strategy almost always entails a transaction/trading fee unless one gets free trades for some reason.
    -Others (me) like the option whereby dividends are reinvested free of trading fees and, in the case of some companies, at a discount to market value. EPD is one holding of mine that reinvests at a 5% discount.
    My dividends/distributions in my Roth IRA accounts are not taxable. Those in my regular brokerage account are. Those in my SEP IRA one day may be.
    Scottrade will not reinvest your cash distributions in additional shares. You get cash only. Fidelity will let you choose whether to reinvest or not on a security by security basis.
    One note on the Fidelity reinvestment process - your cash is NOT reinvested at the share price on the day the distributions are paid. Fidelity buys sufficient shares up to 14 days ahead of the distribution date and reinvests your distribution at the average price they paid for those shares. Sometimes you win a bit, sometimes you lose a bit.
    Also of note, if you use M* to track your portfolio their portfolio tracker program reinvests your cash at the share price listed/posted on the dividend declaration date. This is rarely, if ever, the same as the share price on the day the dividend is actually paid and almost surely is not the reinvestment price Fidelity uses. I cannot speak for the reinvestment process at other brokerages.
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    In the tax deferred account that I own individual stocks in, the dividends are not reinvested but put into a MM fund within the account. That eliminates the distribution issue before 59 ½. Also that gives me flexibility to reinvest those dividends as I see fit.
    Thanks....Nice to know.
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    In the tax deferred account that I own individual stocks in, the dividends are not reinvested but put into a MM fund within the account. That eliminates the distribution issue before 59 ½. Also that gives me flexibility to reinvest those dividends as I see fit.
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    Hi @bee,
    You noted: " Might the dividend be a distribution in a tax deferred or qualified account which would be a problem where you are younger than 59.5 ?"
    Are you asking that if a dividend is taken from the sheltered account (IRA), then it becomes a distribution?
    I can't think of a reason for not maintaining the dividend/distribution within the IRA or related sheltered account.
    Looking around the MOTIF, I don't find an FAQ or similar about what happens to distributions from one's stocks or etfs held in an account with them.
    Lastly, a wonderful summer evening in Michigan. Mid-70's (8:30pm), low humidity and a slight breeze.......and lots of local folks shoot'in them rockets.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    They do not allow reinvestment of dividends so for me it is a neat concept but doesn't work for me for that reason.
    Couldn't you reinvest these dividends yourself rather than "they reinvesting dividends" for you?
    Either way, aren't dividends (reinvested or not) taxable in a taxable account? Might the dividend be a distribution in a tax deferred or qualified account which would be a problem were you younger than 59.5 ?
    Does it matter who reinvests dividends, you or the administrator?
    I have never had a situation where I didn't have the option to reinvest dividends, but if I did; I would assume I could do this myself as part of adding contributions to this account.
  • MOTIF Investing, re-visited; build your own unique investment mix..... or another's
    One M* thread with respect to possible annoyances:
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/347815/3634184.aspx#3634184
    I have looked at it off and on for the past few years more for my grandchildren donations rather than my own account. It's actually simple and credible. If nothing else one can get a great number of potential ideas from looking at the portfolio's that the site and others have created.
  • Can Value Trump Growth? Particularly With Sml Cap U.S. Stock Mutual Funds
    Article by Craig L. Israelsen:
    "So after six years of a surging bull market, I wanted to revisit that analysis to discover: Does value-oriented investing still win out? My goal was to find out whether the value premium has persisted among U.S. large-, mid- and small-cap equity indexes — and, if so, to quantify its impact."
    and,
    'These findings do not argue for eliminating growth-oriented assets from a portfolio. However, the analysis does suggest that a value “overweight” is justified in the long run — particularly among small-cap U.S. stock mutual funds."
    image
    Article:
    can-value-investing-still-trump-growth?
  • WealthTrack Preview: Guest: David Winters, Manager, Wintergreen Fund
    Perhaps, just perhaps, David Winters is a "regular" on WT because he is one of the sponsors of the program. It sure isn't because he is shredding the market as compared with less costly, more attractive alternatives:
    CHART
    @scott: "That said, it remains to be seen how long investors tolerate it."
    Investors are not tolerating the fund's underperformance, as AUM have decreased from $1.67B (9/2014 per FundMojo) to the current $957M (per M*).
    Kevin
  • 3 Sectors To Watch In The Second Half Of 2015 - XLF (Finance), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health care)
    Thanks from here too, Bee - the audio link is a really good source generally about strategic allocation for income-focused investing, and specifically for ideas for tweaks for H2 2015. -- AJ
  • The Next 10 Years using Simple Forecasting Rules

    Given today’s market conditions and the S&P 500 CAPE valuation, I anticipate an equity annual real return of 1.0%, and a bond return of 2.5% (mix of treasury and corporate holdings) over the next 10-year time horizon.
    Add another 2.5% for inflation. I presently expect a 60/40 equity/bond mixed portfolio to generate an actual return of 0.6 X 1.0 + 0.4 X 2.5 + 2..5 (inflation) = 4.1% annual average actual return for the next 10 years. Given the crudeness of the analyses, the projection is 4% annually. Quoting anything more accurate is misleading.
    On a macro level I agree. When you look at stagnating wages, labor participation rate, retiring baby boomer, increase of people on food stamps, cost of Obamacare it point to a economic malaise. Also, at some point we will get a VAT which should put an additional damper on things.
  • WealthTrack Preview: Guest: David Winters, Manager, Wintergreen Fund
    FYI: I will link interview early Saturday morning.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    As we celebrate our tenth anniversary year on WEALTHTRACK we have been taking an in depth look at one of the biggest investment trends of the past decade, the huge migration of both institutional and individual investors from actively managed funds to passive, index-based ones, especially ETFs.
    As we have reported before, index funds now account for a third of fund assets, up from 14% ten years ago. And recently exchange traded funds, or ETFs, have seen the lion’s share of the fund flows.
    As Morningstar recently reported, U.S. ETFs have more than $2 trillion dollars in assets compared to nearly $13 trillion for all mutual funds, excluding money market funds. That means 14% of fund assets are now in ETFs, up from a mere 4% ten years ago.
    During the current six year bull market index funds have outperformed the vast majority of actively managed funds. In addition, the cost benefits of index funds are considered to be overwhelmingly in investors’ favor, especially when compounded over time. The asset-weighted expense ratio for passive funds was just .20% in 2014, compared with 0.79% for active funds.
    Even investors in active funds are opting for lower cost ones. During the past decade the lowest cost quintile of active funds received $1.07 trillion of the total $1.13 trillion dollars of the net new flows into actively managed funds.
    With better performance and lower costs it’s hard to find anyone concerned about these developments. However this week we have an interview with a critic of the surge to passive investing. Not surprisingly, he is an active fund manager.
    David Winters is CEO of Wintergreen Advisers and Portfolio Manager of the Wintergreen Fund, which he launched in 2005. He was nominated for Morningstar’s International-Stock Manager of the year award in 2010 and 2011.
    He has been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning because his traditional value–oriented, global approach worked for years. However the last five years have been rough. The fund has underperformed its benchmark and Morningstar World Stock category.
    I spoke with Winters about why he thinks the move to index funds is a dangerous market mania, which puts retirees at particular risk.
    If you miss the show on air this week, you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA interview with David Winters about the challenges of being an active manager during a six year bull market. Its available exclusively online. As always, we welcome your feedback on Facebook and Twitter.
    Have a great 4th of July weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
  • June Jobs Report
    Despite the positive headline, the labor participation rate fell to the lowest level since 1977. Not good.
    http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1978_2015_all_period_M06_data.gif
    "Annual increases in wages have clung near 2% since 2012 — not much faster than the rate of inflation — even though the labor market has tightened considerably." Not good.
    And the all important, but under-reported U6, remains stubbornly high at 10.5%. Not good.
    DATA
    Kevin
  • The Next 10 Years using Simple Forecasting Rules
    Hi Guys,
    The saying that “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler” is often but not universally attributed to Albert Einstein.
    Regardless of who actually made that pithy proclamation, it is especially applicable when making investment forecasts. Uncertainty dominates any forecasting, and complexity only increases the odds of introducing extraneous and erroneous factors.
    I particularly favor a short and simple set of rules when forecasting longer-term market returns. I am not in any way motivated to travel to Chicago to attend a Morningstar convention where invited experts offer no more illuminating projections than I can painlessly glean from these simple rules.
    What is my simple rule set? For the equity portion of my portfolio, I use a 10-year equity returns correlation that deploys the Bob Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio (CAPE) as the entry parameter. Its current value is about 26; its historical mean value is roughly 17. So, today, the equity marketplace has a cautionary higher than normal risk level.
    Future equity returns are negatively correlated with CAPE. A correlation that I like projects the following 10-year annual real returns (inflation subtracted) of 11%, 8%, 5%, 3%, and 1% as CAPE groupings increase from below10, 10 to 15, 15 to 20, 20 to 25, and greater than 25, respectively. These 5 groupings project a sad story for the current CAPE level. Please take note: This table is the primary insight and tool.
    Above a CAPE of 30, equity returns have been historically negative for the upcoming 10 year period. One reason I like the above correlation is the timeframe balance of its components. Both CAPE and the equity market returns forecast are for a 10-year time horizon.
    Projecting the next 10-year bond return likelihood is an even easier task. Simply use the current yield of the 10-year treasury bond. If you are a more aggressive corporate bond holder, you might consider adding 0.8% to the government value.
    Given today’s market conditions and the S&P 500 CAPE valuation, I anticipate an equity annual real return of 1.0%, and a bond return of 2.5% (mix of treasury and corporate holdings) over the next 10-year time horizon.
    Add another 2.5% for inflation. I presently expect a 60/40 equity/bond mixed portfolio to generate an actual return of 0.6 X 1.0 + 0.4 X 2.5 + 2..5 (inflation) = 4.1% annual average actual return for the next 10 years. Given the crudeness of the analyses, the projection is 4% annually. Quoting anything more accurate is misleading.
    If you are a neophyte investor and expecting a portfolio return that is north of 8% annually over the upcoming 10 years, forget-about-it. It is not now in the cards given the present high value of CAPE. Naturally, these forecasts change as the input parameters get revised.
    Well, this forecast is not rocket science and it did not need a visit to the Morningstar clambake. It has taken a complex forecasting problem and has simplified to allow a rapid and respectable estimate that does not depart too radically from those made by the professionals with their complex computer models. That complexity adds little.
    Returning to the Einstein quote, I hope my approach has not crossed the overly simplified boundary. I also hope that a few MFO members find this simple forecasting tool useful. I realize that many MFO members use similar simplified methods in making their own projections. I thank these members for their patience with this submittal.
    Best Regards.