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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TD Ameritrade's Expanded Commission-Free ETF Program
    @MSF I would say a 0.03% expense ratio is a pretty good deal on the SPDR Portfolio Total Stock Market ETF (SPTM) and an 0.11% one on the emerging markets fund--SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM)--is the lowest fee currently available I believe on an emerging markets ETF. Also, although no S&P 500 ETF is available, the SPDR Portfolio Large Cap ETF (SPLG) also has a 0.03% expense ratio and I bet it's pretty close to an S&P 500 fund in how it moves. What this really is is an end-run around Standard & Poor's and Russell, which State Street is no longer paying licensing fees to by creating its own indexes. What also is a little trickier is liquidity as these are smaller ETFs than Vanguard's, but then most investors on this board are not institutional investors who need a lot of liquidity. I would advise placing limit orders on these ETFs till they get bigger if bid-ask spreads are wide. But I don't think this is a bad deal on the face of it.
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    Very interesting thread and thanks to all who contributed. 3 years ago I nixed my advisor who gave me high fees and low returns. Started using VCSH for a "cash" bucket, GTLOX for moderate and GTLLX for growth.
    I sold a house 1.5 years ago and all the proceeds still sit in my Vanguard sweep account waiting for a dip (but that's an issue for another thread!) Those proceeds are now my (much too large) cash position, VWELX and VMVFX my conservative positions; POSKX moderate; POGRX, PRGTX and VWIGX growth positions.
    I am 50, hoping to avoid completely screwing up, having enough to retire, and learning enough for the confidence to never hire another high-priced advisor.
  • TD Ameritrade's Expanded Commission-Free ETF Program
    The "expanded ETF" sheet (first link) says that TDAmeritrade is tripling its commission-free ETFs from 100 to 296.
    According to its current website (day before switchover), they offer 152 equity ETFs, 9 sector ETFs, 95 bond ETFs, 112 international ETFs, and 11 commodity ETFs commission free. Maybe my arithmetic is wrong, but that seems to total 379 ETFs. It seems that TDA is reducing the number of commission free ETFs by 20%.
    Not to mention that 30 Vanguard ETFs are being dropped: BIV, BLV, BND, BSV, EDV, MGK, VB, VBK, VBR, VCIT, VCSH, VEA, VEU, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VIG, VMBS, VNQ, VO, VOE, VOT, VSS, VT, VTI, VTV, VUG, VWO, VXF, VYM. (Some iShare ETFs are being dropped as well, but many are being kept).
    The current (old) page says that there are 83 commission-free iShare ETFs. The "expanded ETF" sheet shows 44 (if I counted correctly). For example, AGG is dropped.
    In spot-checking, I haven't been able to find a fund in the new list that isn't in the old list. (I'm working off a downloaded pdf file dated Oct. 16, 2017.) That's not to say there aren't any new ETFs, just that a not-so-random sampling has turned up none.
  • The Closing Bell: Wall St. Inches Up With Financials, Energy
    My diversified mix of funds ended flat - as were many of my individual funds. Bloomberg’s talking heads were yacking in the morning about the big surge in commodities. If it existed, it didn’t show up in the related funds I own. If fact, gold had an off-day. A bit unusual to see the DJ climb 85 points and yet end the day flat. Guessing those market gains must have been narrowly confined.
    FWIW - HSGFX continued to slide, falling .31% for the day to close at $6.36.
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    Interesting @bee. I think as I age I have similar risk reward confidence in my allocation funds and I've tried to build around that allocation core with a mix of equity and bond funds. And with those funds the trade off between risk-reward is always a major factor in what I own.
    I have less funds then you but I think I have a similar comfort level when thinking about balanced-allocation funds. I have 13 funds in my self-managed portfolio, a combination of equity, bond and balanced funds. I don't think specific region or sector funds are needed, but that's just me. My largest % weighting to the portfolio is balanced funds, PRWCX for large cap and ICMBX for small. One is aggressive, one is very conservative. I know ICMBX is going to payoff only if held through the economic cycle, so you have to accept the under-performance during the bull. I'm happy with the combination. And I know it's not, but I think of DSENX as a 'pseudo' allocation fund. So just those 3 funds make up the bulk of the portfolio at about 40% of the total.
    I plan to stop working full time in 2018 at the ripe old age of 64. When I do I may do the bucket system approach. I would do something much simpler than your 5 buckets approach though. I'm also considering an immediate annuity to minimize what I need in the conservative bucket. This would allow me to be (slightly) more aggressive with the growth bucket. When I plug the fixed annuity option into my spreadsheet, it initially looks like a pretty attractive option.
    I love to hear how you and others approach risk-reward and the income options when retired. Thanks for starting the discussion.
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    Anything >5y I would (and do) put in DSENX and leave alone.
  • Dow Jones 30 Industrials Targeting 23,000
    @Maurice: Just for you, and that 23,000 milestone !
    Regards,
    Ted
    Dow milestones 1st close above that level Dow final close No. of trading days to milestone (ranking)
    23,000 ? N/A ?
    22,000 Aug. 2, 2017 22,016.24 107
    21,000 March 1, 2017 21,115.55 24 (1)
    20,000 Jan. 25, 2017 20,068.51 42 (2)
    19,000 Nov. 22, 2016 19,023.87 483
    18,000 Dec. 23, 2014 18,024.17 120
    17,000 July 3, 2014 17,068.26 153
    16,000 Nov. 21, 2013 16,009.99 139
    15,000 May 7, 2013 15,056.20 1,460
    14,000 July 19, 2007 14,000.41 59 (3)
    13,000 March 25, 2007 13,089.89 127
    12,000 Oct. 19, 2006 12,011.73 1,879
    11,000 May 3, 1999 11,014.69 24 (1)
    10,000 March 29, 1999 10,006.78 246
    9,000 April 6, 1998 9.033.23 182
    8,000 July 16, 1997 8,038.88 105
    7,000 Feb. 13, 1997 7,022.44 85
    6,000 Oct. 14, 1996 6,010 226
    5,000 Nov. 21, 1995 5,023.55 189
    4,000 Feb. 23, 1995 4,003.33 975
    3,000 March 17, 1991 3,004.46 1,080
    2,000 Jan. 8, 1987 2,002.25 3,573
    1,000 Nov. 14, 1972 1,003.16 21,652
    Source: WSJ Data:
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    @Old_Skeet...lots to ponder...longer response coming.
    @Ted, yes. They have been and should be good investments for growth going forward.
    @Derf, yes. I looked at these retirement funds as glide path funds for the 5 year increment / spending needs in retirement.
    I never pull the trigger on this idea, but it would go something like this:
    Yr/Date----Age---Hold Retirement/Income Fund
    2020 ------60----2020 Fund
    2025-------65----2025 Fund
    2030-------70----2030 Fund
    2035-------75----2035 Fund
    Etc
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    @ bee: At one time didn't you throw out the idea to use target date funds to accomplish this in a retirement portfolio ? Ret. income, 2020, 2025, 2030.
    @ Old Skeet; You bring up a point of interest. How much to put in each pot so to speak?
    Derf
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    Hi @bee,
    In enjoyed reading your plan to position your portfolio. One of the things that I did not pick up on in my reading of your plan was how much you plan (percent wise) to have allocated to each area? Perhaps, you plan for even distribution at 20% each? Not sure what your 10 year cash draw needs are? And, do you plan to exhaust each area as their period comes to pass?
    I'm thinking ... Your 1 to 3 year funds could consist of short term bond funds. Your 3 to 5 year area could consist of conserative allocation funds or multi sector bond funds or perhaps a mix of both. Your 5 to 7 year area could consist of moderate allocation funds along with some world allocation funds. Your 7 to 9 year area could consist of aggressive allocation funds. And, your 10+ year area could consist of all equity funds consisting of a mix of both domestic and world equity funds.
    For me ... I have four areas of investments within my master portfolio. It consist of a cash area, an income area, a growth and income area and a growth area. I have percent ranges set for each area and strive to keep each area somewhere close to their neutral positions unless I have choosen to overweight/underweight an area.
    When, I need cash I pull from the demand cash sleeve within the cash area while all of the other sleeves (for the most part) are set to feed the demand cash sleeve thus keeping it with an ample supply of cash to meet distributions.
    Just wondering what your thinking is when it comes to drawdown since you are apparently in the distribution mode of investing much like myself? Percent wise what do you target for an annual distribution?
    Old_Skeet
  • Reviewing Allocation Funds in a Retirement Portfolio
    One strategy that I have attempted to include as part of my portfolio review and yearly reallocation is to use "allocation funds" as the destination for other funds that need paring back. I consider these allocation funds as having attributes that served my goals well when I started investing and I now see them as serving a different goal in retirement.
    I began my investing (call this my 30's) by first owning well diversified allocation funds such as VGSTX, OAKBX, VWINX, VWELX, DODBX, PRPFX, PRWCX, and others. These funds provided me with a way to funnel small contributions into one or a few of these funds based mainly on their availability to my workplace retirement plan. It exposed "my meager, but dear savings" into what I consider a long term well managed (hopefully), well diversified investment. These funds often had a history of good risk / reward, solid management, were reasonably priced (low ER ratio) and made "staying the course" pretty certain.
    As my savings increased and my knowledge base grew (call it my 40-50's) I began realizing that I could create my own personal portfolio allocation using not only these funds, but a combination of "non-equity" funds (Bonds, RE, Commodities) and equity funds that had an "alpha/growth" strategy (sector, size, class, valuation, manager, etc.). These "fund combos" provided me with the biggest momentary losses and the largest momentary gains, but in the end have kept me up at night more often than the allocation funds I also still owned.
    I began to discipline myself to trust my fund choices to "stay the course" and use these momentary ups and downs in the market to reallocate between the "non-equity" portion and the "equity" portion of these investments, but as I reach my 60's, 70's and beyond I see myself developing a third approach.
    I see some of my low risk / low return "non-equity" funds along with some very conservation allocation funds as serving a roll in holding a portion of my portfolio for short term needs. (1-3 year, call these PONDX, PTIAX, CBUZX) for distributions of income, RMD, emergencies and retirement "fun".
    I see the higher risk / higher reward "non-equity" funds along with the higher risk / higher reward "equity" funds as serving a roll in maintaining long term growth. (10 years and longer), and I'll place my stallions here (POAGX, VGHCX, FSRPX, etc). Note to self: "I have too many of these..."
    I see my conservative, moderate & aggressive allocation funds as having a larger and key place in my retirement portfolio as the core of my holdings will occupy this space. These are investments have a (3-9 year) holding period that provide good portfolio diversification as well as "growth and income" to reallocate and "feed" ongoing (1-3 years) needs.
    The Conservative Allocation fund (3-5 year) needs in VWINX, GLRBX or CBUZX.
    The Moderate Allocation fund (5-7 year) needs in JABAX or OAKBX.
    The Aggressive Allocation fund (7-9 year) in PRWCX or BTBFX).
    Each of these allocation funds will periodically "feed" the 1-3 year funds over time.
    Each of the long term funds (10 years or more) "feed" the allocation funds.
    Hopefully there will be enough "feed" to go around.
    If you have any thought on this approach or suggestions for potential candidates for:
    1-3 year funds -
    3-5 year funds -
    5-7 year funds -
    7-9 year funds -
    10 and longer funds -
    I'd appreciate it.
  • John Hussman: Warren Buffett Could Be Setting Stocks Up For 'One Of The Worst Disasters In History
    And his "market timing" fund where he puts his opinions into action:
    HSGFX:
    1y= -17
    3y= -12
    5y= -10
    10y= -7
  • John Hussman: Warren Buffett Could Be Setting Stocks Up For 'One Of The Worst Disasters In History
    FYI: Billionaire investor Warren Buffett made a lot of people feel better about historically stretched stock prices earlier this month.
    Speaking in an interview with CNBC on October 3, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway said, "Valuations make sense with interest rates where they are."
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-could-be-headed-for-one-of-worst-disasters-in-history-2017-10
    BRK.A: Return: %
    !yr. 30.83
    3yr.11.08
    5yr.10.21
    10yr.8.25
    HSTRX: Return: %
    1yr.0.03
    3yr.2.60
    5yr.0.54
    10yr.3.19
  • Here Comes Earnings Season: Brace For A Slowdown In Growth
    Howdy folks,
    So the forward earnings game is still own. Folks, the earning numbers that the press reports are top line estimates. The real number (from my perspective) is "as reported" or TTM and this is what companies actually take to the bottom line. For full year 2017 TTM is estimated at $114.90 as of 09/29/2017 by S&P. Full year 2017 top line forward estimates were in the $135.00 range not long ago. It sure is real confusing these earnings numbers and that is why Old_Skeet uses a blended number of forward estimates in conjunction with TTM. The number I am using in the barometer is $122.50 through 3rd quarter and $125.00 for 4th quarter ending.
    Let's see, 20 X $122.50 = 2450. For me 2450 is the fair value number for the S&P 500 Index as we closed out the 3rd quarter by my mytholodgy. And, 2500 would be the fair value number for 4th quarter ending. With this, the earnings feed in the barometer indicates for the S&P 500 Index is currently at a 2.2% premium. Please know, there are other feeds used in the barometer beside earnings to produce its current reading of 135 which indicates that the Index is currently trading at about a ten percent premium putting it currently at the top of the overvalued scale. Next upward stop is overbought. In addition, to the earnings feed there is a breadth feed and a technical score feed which is also derived from a blended numbers coming from the RSI and MFI technicals. The breadth feed comes from the number of stocks in the Index that are above their 200 moving average. Then there is a short interest feed that has not been spoken much about until now.
    In short words, the higher short interest moves the higher the barometer reading moves. Since short interest is currently at about 2.8 days to cover the barometer reading is currently a little higher than it normally would be without this feed.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer is a neat way for me to measure the Index because it blends many inputs into a single reading that has been scaled.
    In my book ... Stocks are Currently Richly Priced! And, with this, have outpaced earnings.
    And, so-it-goes.
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    On the equity front: May add a tad to certain REITS (VTR). Possibly also small positions in GE & GIS (TBD). Just re-entered small position in AMZN and a position in UTG on the price-weakness surrounding the rights-offering. Bought a small, starter position GBTC (the bitcoin trust) --as a pure speculation. Will pyramid up this position if it moves my way. In the event of a selloff in WTI/energy space, will add to my positions in MMP and EPD, as they remain "high-conviction" (assuming one doesn't overpay).
    On the bond/bond fund side: Avoiding major new commitments here, until we get some price weaknesses (or until I need the income). Sold a l/t position in DLTNX in my taxable account. -- to generate a meager tax-loss. Redeployed proceeds to SEMPX.
    Bond CEFs are 'off the table' for me here.
    Cash/cash-management: Dumped majority of taxable & IRA positions in my l/t holding ACVVX - a market-neutral OEF -- decided to de-fund the position in the event they declare a year-end disty. Used/using/will use proceeds to increase my T-bill ladder, as s/t rates continue to edge higher (6-month T-bill now at ~ 1.25%). Also, after an entirely UNSATISFACTORY discussion with my Wells Fargo brokerage rep about ways to generate a bit of yield on my cash there, I de-funded my taxable Wells Fargo brokerage account, and swept the cash to an internet bank paying +1% . Dealing with the Big 4 banks remains a truly painful/aggravating experience.