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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    image
    Good discussion. The photo above is not atypical of some major highways in northern Michigan. Many barrel right through these potholes at 65 mph, seemingly oblivious to the damage being caused to their vehicles - not to mention the safety hazards. The new Democratic Governor has proposed a 45-cent per gallon fuel tax increase staged-in over time. The “other party” which controls the legislature wants instead to fund roads with the general 6% sales tax when it applies to sales of motor vehicle fuel. That money currently goes to fund schools.
    FWIW, I parked my new Accord in the garage 2 months ago and refuse to drive it until our roads are repaired. I have a 15 year old pickup that can better withstand the endless potholes on highways posted 55 mph (but which should be 35 mph). Even with that, I drive circuitous routes to reach destinations - electing the routes that are least devastated. What used to be a 7 mile daily drive has become a 12 mile drive - but at least the roads are somewhat better.
    The really bad news is my pickup gets only one-third the fuel economy of the lighter hybrid automobile (15 mpg vs 45 mpg). Throw in the 50% longer routing and I’m spending 4-5 times the amount on fuel I’d otherwise. A $5 drive becomes a $20-$25 drive.
    Here’s a good article from Car and Driver on the mess:. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a26330914/michigan-drivers-bad-roads-photos/
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    Hi @BobC
    I/we don't have to travel any of I-75 in the southeast area; but I know the second phase of major rework has already started in the "Troy" area in Oakland county, but this isn't in your travel path.
    When traveling south and headed through or to Ohio; we always opt for US-23 to or from Maumee/turnpike connection. The route to/from Stratford via US-23 would be longer for your trip; but US-23 has had a lot of work already performed and is in decent condition; and I-69 to/from Sarnia is decent as well. I'm sure you take 75 to 94 to Sarnia, yes?
    'Course, there is always a summer project somewhere. MDOT has a very good web site to check for construction projects. Check here. You can change the icons at the left top to on/off with a click to view what you choose. Zoom map with left mouse button.
    Note: Northbound US-23 at I-96 interchange is too busy after 3pm most days and especially on Friday, as many metro Detroit area commuters are getting out of town; especially with summer vacations.
    Overall, driving around Cleveland for us heading east is much different than 75 and 94 near Detroit. One is never really away from too much going on with traffic in this metro Detroit area.
  • M*: 3 Retirement Saver Portfolios For Minimalists
    @MikeM: My link is dated 3/25/19, yours 3/21/19, same subject different articles.
    Regards,
    Ted A.K.A. Night Owl
  • Suze Orman Says You Need $5 million To Retire — Which Is Nonsense
    Orman is responding to a question about 20 and 30 year olds "RETIRING"! I think she is probably right on the money with that statement since they will be foregoing 30-40 years worth of paychecks from a job. Just a poorly written article. The article is "nonsense".
    Orman was responding to a question about the “financial independence, retire early,” or “FIRE,” movement, a growing online trend in which people in their 30s or younger just stop working.
    ‘You need at least $5 million, or $6 million. Really, you might need $10 million.’
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    @catch22 Good question! Our previous governor and legislature issued bonds to fund the upkeep of the turnpike. Unfortunately, from what I understand, the $1.5 billion raised from issuing bonds in 2012 has now all been committed to existing projects. But the state sill has to pay the interest on those bonds until they mature sometime in the future. I am not sure about how much of the total fees the turnpike collects go to repairs and maintenance, but the road is well maintained.
    And yes, I know about the I-75 mess in southeast Michigan. We travel that route from Columbus to Stratford, Ontario frequently. Any idea when the south-bound lanes will re-open. Last year, they had totally disappeared, just like northbound the prior year.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    @BobC
    Do you know how much of the I-80/turnpike fee goes to repair of the Ohio portion?
    Just being curious, as to a compare of fees/repairs/maintenance.
    Example; I-75 through Michigan has a lot of traffic in the southeast area, in particular; but there is no offsetting toll for maintenance.
    Thank you.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    Our new Ohio governor proposed an $0.18 per gallon tax to shore up our crumbling infrastructure. The Ohio House said $0.08 was enough, and the state Senate said $0.06. Those may be off a bit, but the numbers are close. Gas prices regularly fluctuate 15 to 30 cents in a 24-hour period, and folks don 't blink an eye. Our legislature simply doesn't have the guts to do what is needed. Some even suggested offsetting any gasoline tax with a corresponding reduction in income taxes. We finally have a governor who is not afraid to increase state spending for areas that have been long neglected, and the legislature run by the same political party sits on their hands.
  • M*: 3 Retirement Saver Portfolios For Minimalists
    FYI: Ugh, busy--crazy busy!"
    "Our schedules are just nuts right now."
    "We have to get together--it’s been forever!"
    If you’re a working person--and especially if you’re a working person with young children--it’s a good bet that any brief text or email exchanges with friends have included some variation of those words. You’re scrambling to meet your commitments and squeeze in time for family and friends. If you have aging parents, you may be doubly crunched for time.
    Regards,.
    Ted A.K.A. Night Owl
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/920725/3-retirement-saver-portfolios-for-minimalists.html
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Stocks Drop On Global Growth Worries
    FYI: The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded 94 points lower, as of 04:24 a.m. ET, implying a decline of more than 50 points at Monday’s open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also pointed to a lower open.
    U.S. futures had earlier seen gains after Attorney General William Barr said special counsel Robert Mueller’s long-awaited investigation did not find enough evidence that President Donald Trump ’s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia.
    Stock markets across Asia fell Monday and Japanese bond yields slid further into negative territory, feeding into a global risk selloff that started late last week.
    Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 3.0%, its biggest one-day decline this year, while South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively. Market participants pointed to worrisome signs of a slowdown in global growth and a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields on Friday.
    The yen, which is considered a haven in times of economic uncertainty, rose to a six-week high of ¥109.70 per dollar on Monday morning in Asia. The yen was at ¥109.90 per dollar in Asia afternoon trading, compared with ¥109.94 late Friday in New York.
    Regards,
    Ted A.K.A. Night Owl
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-drop-on-global-growth-worries-11553485990
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-24/stocks-to-drop-in-asia-yields-fall-on-growth-woes-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-likely-to-take-mueller-findings-in-stride-2019-03-24/print
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-mueller-report-apple-streaming-service-event-boeing-737-max/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/24/wall-street-expects-big-rally-after-mueller-finds-trump-campaign-did-not-conspire-with-russia.html
    U.K.:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-100
    Europe:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks/european-shares-sink-as-recession-risk-fears-hit-home-idUKKCN1R60QR
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-plunge-on-recession-fears-2019-03-24/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/us-bonds-treasury-yields-move-lower-ahead-of-economic-data-auctions.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/forex-market-dollar-moves-us-economy-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/oil-market-us-recession-fears-opec-supply-cuts-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/gold-market-us-recession-fears-global-economy-in-focus.html
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Suze Orman Says You Need $5 million To Retire — Which Is Nonsense
    "Saw her long time ago during a PBS donation drive." Likewise, and I never did care for her. Nevertheless, the question that she was answering postulated retiring "in your 30's". Assuming no significant inheritance, no further employment, no accumulation of savings, investments, or Social Security for the 45 year period of 35 to 80, I don't find her "$5 million" response to be terribly off the mark, unless you anticipate becoming a homeless "street person" at some point.
  • Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity
    “My error. I was mistaken: TRRIX (not TRRAX) did even better than you remembered: -18.39% in 2008. Up 22.07% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -0.38%. So just standing pat would have broken even with this fund. TRRAX (target date 2010) gained 27.95% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -6.23%.

    @msf - I did not know you were capable of error. :) Thanks for continuing to check this out and for getting back with the correct numbers.
    Once ‘08 returns dropped from the current prospectuses (after 10 years) I lost track. That was something I always looked at for every fund I owned (or considered owning) until it got harder to do. An easy error to make. TRRIX is different from their other retirement funds in that it bears no date, nor does it follow a glide slope. As such, it’s not a target date fund.
    Anything near 20% is still a steep loss for TRRIX.
    Thanks.
  • Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity
    My error. Since REATX was a 2010 target fund, I compared its 2008 performance with that of T. Rowe Price's 2010 target fund (TRRAX)'s performance in 2008.
    I was mistaken: TRRIX (not TRRAX) did even better than you remembered: -18.39% in 2008. Up 22.07% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -0.38%. So just standing pat would have broken even with this fund.
    TRRAX (target date 2010) gained 27.95% in 2009, for a combined 2 year total return of -6.23%.
    Domestic or foreign didn't seem to matter. Similar swoons in 2008, similar rebounds in 2009:
    The domestic S&P 500 index fund VFINX went from -37.02% in 2008 to gain 26.49% in 2009 (per M*).
    The international EAFE index fund VDMIX (Vanguard Developed Markets) went from -41.62% in 2008 to gain 28.17% in 2009.
    The annuity salesman picked the worst year, but not the worst case (max drawdown). That was something like -38% for REATX (based on Yahoo data - I'm not rechecking this now). Target date funds are sold as sleep at night funds, so IMHO it's fair to look at bad years and ask whether they delivered on their promise. Lots of columns were written after the GFC faulting target date funds for their failure.
    Principal protected notes, market linked CDs, index-linked annuities do deliver, in the sense that they protect against market risk. (They still expose the investor to issuer risk, except for FDIC-insured CDs.)
    I'm not fond of these products because I feel one is paying to insure against a relatively low probability event happening (long term, multi-year nominal market decline). But I also don't think that FDIC-insured accounts are worth using either, except in very low interest environments or for emergency cash. I'm not their target audience.
    My biggest complaint against these products is that they are usually sold in the most expensive format - as annuities - even though the annuity may add nothing but cost. Especially if the investment is already in a tax-favored account such as an IRA.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America” .
    How we doing on each of those?
    1. More perfect union
    2. Justice (equal & for all)
    3. Domestic Tranquility
    4. Defense
    5. General Welfare
    6. Liberty
    Public transportation would seem essential to the “General Welfare” category (#5). Probably a “C” grade at best, depending what part of the country you reside in.
    I don’t much care how we raise the money. I lean more toward the income tax as fairer to all. But that’s just me. Tax anything you like.
  • Suze Orman Says You Need $5 million To Retire — Which Is Nonsense
    FYI: ( In the Linkster opinion Suze's nothing more than one giant infomertial, hawking her financial tapes and books on PBS, QVC, and HSN.)
    Author and personal-finance guru Suze Orman ruffled a lot of feathers in a recent podcast, saying that people need $5 million — maybe even $10 million — in order to retire.
    Orman was responding to a question about the “financial independence, retire early,” or “FIRE,” movement, a growing online trend in which people in their 30s or younger just stop working.
    ‘You need at least $5 million, or $6 million. Really, you might need $10 million.’
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/suze-orman-says-you-need-5-million-to-retire-thats-nonsense-2019-01-15/print
    Eddie Cantor- If You Knew Susie:
  • Barry Ritholtz: Failure To Increase The Gas Tax Signals American Decline
    OJ - it's a point but I'm not sure it's a good point. I'd call it a minor point. I believe that less than 5% of the vehicles on the road are either hybrid or electric (and do note that hybrid's still require some form of fossil fuel). I'd like to think that what government fails to reap in fuel taxes we reap in the form of cleaner air and lower levels of pollutants.
    Bike lanes, the same reasoning applies except they tend to be even more restricted to heavily populated major cities. Think of it as one less car on the road for each bicyclist you see. Bike lanes are also more likely a form of local demand on a city/county/state level driven by the wants/desires of local residents. As always there are tradeoffs.
  • Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity
    There's a bit more to the numbers.
    The money in target date plans is definitely rising. That doesn't necessary mean they're more popular, at least in the way that word is used - as something many people like.
    Rather, DC plans are allowed to be opt-out (employees are enrolled unless they make an active decision to disenroll). Since the plans are allowed to default that money to target date plans (unless employees actively decide otherwise) cash just floods in to target date funds.
    If workers sit on their hands and let their paychecks go wherever, it doesn't mean that the target date funds are popular.
    REATX lost 27.29% in calendar year 2008 according to its prospectus. TRRIX lost 26.71% in calendar yeaer 2008 according to its prospectus. We all tend to remember the past as better (or at least less bad) than it actually was. :-)
    While I agree that selling a product or service based solely on people's fears is sleazy, matching a product/service to a person's fear of loss seems fair. How many people buy Treasury MMFs because they're scared of prime funds? Even more so now that the government has said that prime funds are not as safe. How often do people here quote max drawdown figures, even though those are just one day, worst case statistics?
    Products and services may not maximize dollar results but can meet other needs, including providing a sense of well being.
    Finally, to address the speculation that REATX made up most of its 2008 loss in 2009 ... According to M*, REATX gained 23.70% in 2009 (41st percentile). That gives it a two year return of (1 - 27.29%) x (1 + 23.70%) - 1 = -10.1%.
  • Target-date fund strategies rise in Popularity
    I thought the linked article from @JohnN good - but pretty rudimentary.
    On a different (I hope related) note, a slick 30-minute TV infomercial - from one of those free dinner annuity peddlers provides occassional comedic relief Sunday mornings (especially if you missed SNL Saturday night). Always interesting observing their various scare tactics designed to dissuade folks from investing in mutual funds. Lots of big impressive looking charts. They seem to prey on poorly informed seniors and those nearing retirement.
    The guy today was focused on frightening people away from mutual funds (and Target Date Retirement funds in particular) by highlighting the performance of American Funds Target Date 2010 REATX during 2008 (hardly a representative year). He claims it lost 28% in 2008 despite having only 38% in equities and over 60% in bonds (75% of them rated A or higher).
    Can’t confirm his numbers. I’m surprised if REATX actually lost that much. However, in 2008 those invested in it would likely have been working (and importantly still contributing) and at least 2 years from retirement. For comparison, Price’s TRRIX runs a similar 40 / 60 allocation and lost around 20% in ‘08. What these hucksters did not mention was that 2009 was a strong up year. Likely REATX recouped most (not all) of that 2008 loss.
    Obviously if you want to frighten folks away from target date retirement funds, highlighting the worst stock market / financial year out of the past 30 or 40 is the way to do it.
  • Which of your funds surprised you Friday to the DOWN-side?
    Great respond when question was ask to the upside, so I decided to see what happens in reverse.
    The fund bad boy for me was QRSVX Queens Road Small Cap (-3.05%)
    Derf
  • Which of your funds surprised you today to the up-side?
    ...And I bet the whole Brexit mess is not helping foreign funds, either. The Brits are so evenly split on that business! Northern Ireland, Scotland and Gibraltar all voted to REMAIN. My own portf. is 5.59% in developed Europe, ZERO in emerging Europe.