Hi all,
It is for sure some will have greater success at positioning than others. I have found it best for me to allocate even within the growth area of my portfolio where no sleeve is less than 20% nor greater than 30%. In this way, I don't put too much, or to less, into a sleeve. Thus far it has worked well. Last year my small/mid cap sleeve lead. This year it trails with the other three sleeves (large mid cap, global growth and specialty/theme) being the producers. And, even the small/mid cap sleeve has produced year-to-date (at just short of 7%); but, just not as much as the others.
We each have our style of investing. For me, I am for the most part an asset allocator who plays around the edges and moves some money from time-to-time based upon my read into what I perceive will be the faster moving currents within the market.
But, to do this I have to continue to be a good student following the markets as they are forever changing. And, that is why I maintain both a domestic and global market compass as well as my market barometer that follows and scores certain aspects the S&P 500 Index and scales it into a barometer reading.
Many years ago I enjoyed some weekend visits to the dog track betting the dogs. One of my strategies was to bet three dogs to win, place or show as it produced more winning proceeds for me over betting one dog to win. So, I modified this betting strategy and incorporated it into my investment portfolio.
For me, it has worked well. Both, at the track and within my portfolio.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

We thought we’d start continue up with the 130 U.S. equity funds which have passed their second anniversary but have not yet reached their third, which is when conventional trackers such as Morningstar and Lipper pick them up. As Charles has repeatedly demonstrated, the screener at MFO Premium allows you to answer odd and interesting questions. When markets are rising, everybody’s question is the same: who’s making the most?
There are two ways to answer that. One way is to look at total returns. As of Halloween (our data is current as of the end of last month), the clear winner is the $8 million Zevenbergen Genea (ZVGIX) fund, a focused fund with an emphasis on tech. (What’s a “genea”? Old Greek word related to “genealogy,” it sometimes signals “a generation,” which aligns with the fund’s emphasis on have a long-term view.)
Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
Multi-Cap Growth
23.6% annualized return since inception through October 2017
ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Health Care ETF SPXV
Large-Cap Core
18.1%
Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
Specialty Diversified Equity
17.9%
ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Energy ETF SPXE
Large-Cap Core
17.8%
Alambic Small Cap Value Plus Fund ALAMX
Small-Cap Value
17.8%
Sometimes a fund is good not because the fund is good, but because its investment style or focus is hot. For example, a hot energy market makes even bad energy fund managers look like geniuses. You’ll notice that two of the six top performers are distinguished for what they did not invest in: “ex Health Care” and “ex Energy” tells you that these funds are winning just because the excluded sectors are, for now, losing.
To control for that, we can look for funds that are distinctive better than their peers. Seven funds are beating their peers by more than 5% per year so far, with 50% of those being passive.
Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
Specialty Diversified Equity
17.9% APR since inception
13% annual lead over their (in this case, irrelevant) peer group
Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
Multi-Cap Growth
23.6% APR
10.7% annual lead of their peers
ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF SMDV
Small-Cap Core
15.5% APR
7.2% lead
HCM Dividend Sector Plus Fund HCMZX
Equity Income
14.9% APR
7% lead
ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF REGL
Mid-Cap Core
13% APR
6.1% lead
VictoryShares US Small Cap High Div Volatility Wtd Index ETF CSB
Small-Cap Growth
13.8% APR
5.8% lead
Invesco PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility Portfolio XRLV
Multi-Cap Core
13.4% APR
5.2% lead
Only two of the six funds with the highest total returns are also substantially leading their peers. Half of the peer beaters consciously factor dividends, which sometimes signals the quality of a firm’s management, into their strategies.
Bottom line: it’s not important to know that a fund is winning. It’s important to know why a fund is winning. That’s hard to suss out, but relative performance and some idea of portfolio biases gives you a place to start.
Off to Dallas for a professional conference. Pray for me!
David

@Crash
Here is a response from TRP that was recently posted to the M* forum site:
"This being Nov 7, I checked on the status of this fund with TRP today. I was informed that the inception date has been postponed to "the middle of next year". Vague explanation, no additional information available. :-( "
See:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/377522/3871721.aspx#PageIndex=2
I had planned to put some available $'s into TCAPX instead of adding to my existing investment in VWINX.....but may rethink that plan....

this is 2.5y old but a lot of it still applies, seems to me
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/27/investing-do-you-want-to-send-your-money-abroad/24077415/

BCSVX is new, but it is strong out of the gate. 65% developed and developing Europe. The current portfolio has sizable dollops of large caps and mid caps, despite its stated small cap orientation. I am surprised that Brown Capital has done as well as it has with this fund because its other international offering is run-of-the-mill. From what I could glean from their website, no new manager(s) were hired to run this fund. I own some.

Most market crashes have a trigger and in a lot of cases that's unexpected. The economy both in the US and globally is doing reasonably well and appears to be picking up. Even the skeptics accept that a recession isn't very likely at the moment. I would tend to view what's been happening so far in November as consolidation rather than worry but that's just my humble opinion.
@MJG, I think it reinforces your point but if someone gets 5 out of the 8 forecasts you mentioned correct they're brilliant. A lot more of the guys who are able to get 5 right are lucky but in the same vein they look, and probably claim they're really smart.

Three words: don't do it.
When I read the opening paragraph of the NYTimes article, my thoughts immediately jumped to the question: is this a prohibited transaction? That would void the IRA, making it immediately taxable (and subject to penalties if you're under 59.5). "When the I.R.S. spots a violation, it shows little mercy." Not a risk to assume lightly.
A music teacher is running an instrument leasing business (inside the IRA) to his students. That might be considered a prohibited transaction because the teacher (a "disqualified person") appears to be providing a referral service (referring his students) to his IRA's business. I really don't understand the rules well enough to say. A disqualified person, such as the IRA owner, must not furnish goods or services to the IRA.
A key virtue of traditional IRAs (e.g. provided by brokerages) is that they ensure you are not coming close to prohibited transactions. Maybe if you're a Mitt Romney building a $100M IRA a self-directed IRA would make sense, but then you'd also have a slew of lawyers backing you up and watching out for you.
It gets even worse. Do a search on "checkbook control IRA". I'll let the pages you find explain that one.
Here's a page I just dug up explaining prohibited transactions and containing lots of links to very technical writeups of ambiguities in the law, what could go wrong, etc.
https://www.questira.com/ira-prohibited-transactions-every-investor-needs-to-know/
To its credit, this is a page being provided by one of the companies that you can use to set up a self-directed IRA.

I'm a fan of QUSOX but its only 50/50 Europe/Asia. I'm also a fan of OBIOX, which is 57% Europe but its hard closed.
Wouldn't you generally think that most big European companies are global in nature and would not only reflect their global prospects rather than just Europe but would also be pretty highly correlated with US based big multinationals except for currency? It seems like if you really want to "bet" on Europe you have to go smaller but if you want to bet on the Euro then go big.

I think we’re setting up for something like a repeat of ‘87. Market action past few days looks shaky. Anytime a lot of folks start thinking it’s easy pulling 15-20% a year you’re looking for trouble - especially at a time of 1-2% on CDs. Might make it into January. Doubt it.
Market crashes and corrections do have a lot to do with luck. Like the old game of musical chairs.
For the record: Current DJ 23,400, S&P 2578, NAS 6728, 10-Year 2.38%

.....And the wonderful young agent was, typically, tripping over himself with multi-syllabic utterances so that he would sound intelligent and informative, grasping at different words in order not to be repetitive, and so that there would not be any "dead air" between us. Jay-zuz, I hate that. I suppose they are TRAINED never to use the word "no," even when "no" is the appropriate, true and correct reply. And if they dare to simply communicate within a common sense framework, they'd earn demerits. I guess the trainer-types have all forgotten the 13th Commandment: ESCHEW OBFUSCATION.
..... That 5 minute conversation should have taken maybe 90 seconds. At least, amid all the pap flapping around me from his end, I was informed that there is no way to figure out or plan for just when that fund may open for business, and no way to let me--- and interested folks like me--- know when it happens.
Interesting summary prospectus, though. Already posted here, and I bookmarked it. Monthly pay-outs. Stock-bond split that is divided more evenly than the PRWCX which we all already know and love. I'm interested because I'm looking to grow my dividends these days, preparing to start taking divs. rather than re-investing them. And TCAPX can hold foreign securities, too, though not in amounts that would make it function like my current holdings, PRSNX or PREMX. Yes, I'm ALMOST married to TRP. I have a good slug in Mairs & Power, too, and then just a couple of very small other holdings. Here's that link, again:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689311/000168931117000021/canpta-may35.htm

Hi Guys,
I too suspect that most investors do not fully understand the tradeoff that exists between skill and luck when making investment decisions. Luck is a far more significant contributor then is commonly appreciated.
We are fooled by randomness (that's the title of an excellent book authored by Nassim Nicholas Taleb). The likely reason why we are fooled is that we don't recognize how large numbers of participants contribute to a respectable number of winners.
For example, if 1000 market forecasters exist, after a single forecast 500 are probably correct given an equal interpretation of the likely market outcome. For the successful forecasters, repeat this test again, and the successful number is reduced to perhaps 250. If the challenge is repeated 8 times, a simple probability calculation suggests that maybe 4 forecasters would be correct on all the 8 tests. These fortunate four might be skillful, but they just might be lucky..
These lucky few announce their prescient calls and are now respected as market forecasting wizards. The large number of initial forecasting candidates almost guarantees this outcome and the subsequent misleading interpretation. Indeed, we are often victims; we are fooled by randomness.
Best Wishes

Hi @hank
Bondland: Short duration yields/rates are higher, but.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-2-year-note-yield-hits-another-9-year-high-flattening-continues-idUSL1N1NK0ZW
Pension funds:
1. Actuaries didn't anticipate the longevity of the "boomers".
2. Perhaps many pension funds never really achieved their goal of 8-8.5% real return adjusted for inflation.
3. At least relative to employee union pension funds; many had/have "cost of living" adjustments built into forward pension payments; including pension benefits that continue to have a "health plan", too.
4. Under-funding of pension plans, over the years. This is a known condition for many pension funds.
I recall over the past several years reading about existing pension funds in Michigan municipalities, though still having contributions to the fund; finding that paying the retired employee pension/health care outflows was consuming 50% of the assets of the fund.
Example: Central States Pension Fund (Teamsters); of which, I read about several years ago. A story of, we may be able to maintain the monetary base of the fund; but ya'll will have to take a 30% decrease in your pension or the fund will crash and burn. Check some of the links in the search below, in particular to "UPS" drivers who were moved into the Central States Pension Plan. The link below is for numerous search items.....read for your choosing.
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=EBoLWrGHNJuzjwSX9LzgDw&q=central+states+pension+fund+news&oq=central+states+pension+fund&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l10.1146.11288.0.13276.27.27.0.0.0.0.314.3286.1j25j0j1.27.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..0.27.3280...46j0i131k1j0i46k1j0i10k1.0.clw8X-GyJ9Q
Side note: Although great to have a pension, the majority of pensions do not have a "cost of living" adjustment. If inflation was running at the "old" annual rate of 3%, or so; after 10 years folks would be loosing about 1/3 of their spending power from a pension, yes? I spoke with a few folks I know a number of years ago about this as a future planning tool relative to their spending habits going forward.
Well, this is my small take on such a big world.
The snowblower is lubricated, gas full and tested. Now waiting for April again in Michigan.
Take care,
Catch

Anyone getting giddy on European Funds?
Europe Heading Toward Golden Period:
from-lost-decade-to-golden-years-euro-economy-picks-up-the-pace
To me, a good managed fund navigates these dynamics better than a broad index. Many here are familiar with risk averse FMIJX.
Using a "European only" fund screen shows:
DFA's (DFCSX),
Brown Advisory's (BAHAX) and
Columbia's (CAEZX) all having higher risk adjusted returns (high Sharpe Ratios).
From a fee expense angle the nod goes to (VEURX), but it is an index approach.
PIMCO's USDollar unhedged (PPUDX) has 97% exposure to Developed EU and uses PIMCO's derivative strategies in an attempt to outperform the index. The USDollar hedged version is PPIDX.
T. Rowe Price's (PRIDX) has International Small/Mid Cap exposure splitting itself between Europe/UK (48%) and Japan / Em Asia (45%).
Fidelity's (FSCOX) has a similar approach with a strong convictions towards Japan (33%), Europe (32%) and the UK (19%).
Under performers with high exposure to Europe include:
AAIPX - 4*, (68%/24%) Greater EU / Greater Asia
TRIGX - 3*, (64/32) Greater EU / Greater Asia
LISOX - 3*, (56/30) Greater EU / Greater Asia
BBHLX - 3*, (65/19) Greater EU / Greater Asia, (17%) cash
THGIX - 2*, (62/24) Greater EU / Greater Asia
USIFX - 4*, (62/33) Greater EU / Greater Asia
CIVVX - 4* (65/27) Greater EU / Greater Asia
MQIFX - 4*, (58/37) US/Greater EU
USAWX - 5* (58/39) US/Greater EU
IVFLX - 1* (28/65) US/Greater EU
An interesting World Allocation fund, BBALX, which is divided pretty evenly into thirds-US Equity, Non US equities, and US Bonds- but over weights Non US equities (50/50 Greater EU/Asia) compared to the category.

FYI: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, is considering more than doubling its bond allocation to reduce risk and volatility as the stock bull market approaches nine years.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/calpers-considers-more-than-doubling-bond-allocation-to-44-35690.html?print

@Slick,
You seem to have a fair number of Vanguard Funds. Why not consider moving all of them "in Kind" from Fidelity to Vanguard. I have done that for no charge. This would elevate the $75 TF Fidelity charge to buy/sell Vanguard funds as well as Vanguard does not charge to trade Vanguard ETFs that you trade (Brokerage).

Thanks for your comments guys,I expected the too many funds and too low on some questions. Will try and address your comments:
@Art: Over the last ten years, converted quite a bit from traditional ira to roth. 2/3 of my retirement funds are now in the roth. I treat the roth a bit differently than the traditional ira, as it will be the last to be used, and it much more aggressive.
@Pudd: I only started VWINX this year, and because it is $75 each time I want to add to it, I wait until I sell another fund or stock to fund it more. As I stated, I tend to use a barbell approach rather than allocation or balanced funds, but will add to it over time. I use the staples, utilities, and more value and moderate stock funds as ballast to my more aggressive holdings. I have two general hc funds basically because I cant add to PHSZX at Fido, it was bought when I was with ML I sold the amount I had in the traditional ira and bought SHSAX so I could add to it. I used to have a biotech and a pure pharma etf but sold those to invest in IHI and FSPHX. Regarding the reit, I only bought FRIFX on Friday, selling VNQ after 5 years. I wanted to give a managed fund a try in this sector and liked the Fido offering. It is not a spif, I like having reits as a permanenet part of the portfolio. Not expecting rates to rise very fast anyway. I like how FRIFX is a bit more diversified in its components. Ive had MINDX for over 3 years, but probably would not be buying it now but perhaps a more diversified Asian fund. I have enough diversity in my other foreign holdings that I could risk it. I know I have many funds, primarily because I could not bring some of them from ML and had to find a comparable fund. I brought the traditional ira over first, a year later the rest, so in that year, some I could not bring over, and had to sell, and some closed so had to find alternatives.
@MikeM: I was expecting this comment from someone lol. I love small caps, but the reason they are so low is that I have many funds that have small caps in the portfolio and already at 24% small and mid.
Hope I addressed your comments enough, and no Im not sensitive, many times I think I have too many funds myself, but there is somethng I like about each of them that I hold. And each does have a role, maybe someday this will change :)

Add:
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Hedge Fund. Buys/Sells related to some of the above regarding etfs inside of hedge funds. Scroll down the article for all info.
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/594584/ray-dalio-buys-ishares-core-msci-emerging-markets-spdr-gold-trust-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-sells-ishares-msci-south-korea-capped-index-fund-chesapeake-energy-corp-southwestern-energy-co

Myth or realty?
I read somewhere the the "track distance" relates back to the Roman Chariots and the "rut distance" between the chariot wheels as they Romanized Europe and beyond, eventual became "track distance" between railroad tracks.
My advice:
Fogettabout it...Ride a steam train before you or they are all gone.
was-standard-railroad-gauge-48-determined-by-roman-chariot-ruts

High Yield bonds have been in the news this past week, eh? Some folks sense a twitch to the "dark" side of investment land and perhaps a prelude to something else. Tis not pure profit taking as the returns YTD are not in need of a hair cut. Articles have noted the failure to secure loans at a "decent" rate for financing in a few retail sector companies. One may presume there is good reason to "demand" a higher rate.......like, we're not happy with the forward business model. Makes sense, yes?
@bee , I recall, placed a post which included debt burdens of large retailers. This is one sector that indeed may be on shaky ground to pay off the debt, but is not a large percentage of outstanding high yield bond area.
So, are junk bonds just a forward view of the growth potential of the economy in general? My pay grade is not high enough to know the answer. I'll let the technical indicators point the way.
---High Yield below. A few choices on the list have been prior holdings; although we do not currently hold any HY directly. Of the 6 below, one may be able to "see" the value of active management.
1 week and YTD
ARTFX = -.7%, +7.9%
SPHIX = -. 8%, + 7.4%
DHOIX = -.7%, + 6.5%
PRHYX = -.8%, + 6.4%
HYG = -1%, +5%
JNK = -.9%, +5.4%
The below chart for the above from June 2 through Nov. 10
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ARTFX,SPHIX,DHOIX,PRHYX,HYG,JNK&n=113&O=011000
Lastly, at least related to the etf side of high yield is that etfs are "used" by hedge funds and other similar to help them use the efts as portfolio "insurance" or "adjusters" or whatever phrase/word one prefers. I would not be surprised that the option side of calls/puts has had some effect on HYG and JNK.
Let us keep our fingers crossed that companies make enough profit to pay off the "investment grade bond" debt, too; lest it become junk.
---HY bond $ issued 2016 = $204 Billion; 2017 to date $240 Billion
---IG bond $ issued 2016 = $1.16 Trillion; 2017 to date = $1.2 Trillion
Oh, well.
Good night,
Catch

October marked the 10th year of the current full market cycle, which started in November 2007 (top of last cycle) and bottomed in March 2009.
Here are 10 funds that have delivered perfect scores in their categories across multiple risk and performance metrics since the start of the cycle and consistently within it (click image to enlarge):

By name and symbol:

• Matthews Asia Dividend Fund Inv (MAPIX)

• Artisan International Value Fund Inv (ARTKX)

• MFS International Value Fund A (MGIAX)

• GMO Quality Fund IV (GQEFX)

• Jensen Quality Growth Fund J (JENSX)

• Eaton Vance Atlanta Capital SMID-Cap Fund I (EISMX)

• American Century NT Mid Cap Value Fund G (ACLMX)

• Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund L (JSIVX)

• Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral (VTMFX)

• Eaton Vance and Diversified Currency Income Fund A (EAIIX)

Eight are MFO Great Owls (five 10-year, three 20-year).