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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    I believe the equity market can act as its own re-balancing mechanism. Market price conditions change "moment by moment". When you are in the accumulation stage of life you might dollar cost average (dca) into these price conditions and in a sense your "dca" helps you re-balance into the market's price. Dca into investments over a long time horizons (many overbought and oversold changes) usually provide a positive return on investment. This might be considered a component of a re-balancing growth strategy.
    When you move from the Accumulation (growth) Stage to the Distribution Stage, re-balancing is often impacted by the spending ("distribution of cash") of your portfolio. Re-balancing as a result of spending comes in many forms - retirement income, RMDs, one time tuition payments, wedding costs, house buying, and divorce to name a few. Most of these involve raising cash from your invested investments.
    Raising cash in a portfolio is somewhat a kin to running a farm. Equities are the cows, the hens, the crops. The bonds are the working capital needed to run the farm- the fertilizers, the machinery, the outbuilding, the land, the service costs, etc. Think of cash as the profits from the corn, the hay, the eggs the milk. When a cow needs to be milked...milk it. When the field needs to be hayed, "make hay when the sun shines". Harvesting is part of farm's life and I believe it should also be a dynamic part of a portfolio's inner workings with respect to the cash needs (financial goals) of the portfolio.
    Another take on re-balancing:
    Using @Catch22 portfolio (50% FCNTX and 50% PIMIX) this farm has hired hands (Danoff and Ivascyn) who help manage the production and the operation of the farm separately. You need to roll up your sleeves and coordinate how these two managers are "running" your farm and "re-balance" their efforts. If your are young and your goal is long term growth, buy more FCNTX, but remember that you may need more land, more equipment, more fertilizer...so also buy some PIMIX. In a growth portfolio (with no need for short term cash) I would own enough PIMIX to cover the downside risks (Maximum Draw Down or MAXDD) of FCNTX. So every dollar you spend for future growth of FCNTX, an additional amount (in MAXDD percent) should be directed at PIMIX to hedge FCNTX's MaxDD risk. This will allow you to not sell FCNTX at the wrong time (in case you did need cash), but might even provide an opportunity to buy more FCNTX during oversold times.
    For me, I gauge "overbought and oversold" using my portfolios holdings. I use PIMIX as my "risk off" portfolio indicator comparing it to my "risk on" investments, in this case FCNTX. "Overbought and oversold" conditions of FCNTX are compared against the performance of PIMIX dynamically. . In other words I use PIMIX to tell me when FCNTX is over or under performing PIMIX. Also, using @Old_Skeet's upper bands as a re-balancing trigger (+20% gain on the upside for FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell FCNTX and move proceeds (re-balance back into) PIMIX. Conversely, a (-10 percent loss of FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell PIMIX and buy (re-balance) into FCNTX
    We can hire a manager to do this for us with hybrid/allocation/glide path retirement funds or we can "farm" a portfolio ourselves with individual securities (stocks or bonds) or with additional hired hands (stock or bond mutual fund managers). Either way, we still need to identify a strategy to deal with the spending dynamic and determine how that spending impacts portfolio re-balancing as we move through the distribution stage of life.
  • Lewis Braham: How Smart Investors Give To Charity
    I have the feeling of deja vu with Lewis' article. Had it appeared somewhere else before?
    In any case, this fall M* ran a series of five columns on donor advised funds: intro, one each on Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, then a comparison.
    Is a Donor-Advised Fund Right for You?
    How Does Fidelity Charitable's Investment Menu Stack Up? (previously linked by Ted)
    A Closer Look at Schwab's Donor-Advised Fund
    Under the Hood at Vanguard Charitable
    5 Questions to Ask When Choosing a Donor-Advised Fund
    There's a very detailed/lengthy 2015 Kitces column, previously linked by heezsafe in this MFO thread.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/rules-strategies-and-tactics-when-using-donor-advised-funds-for-charitable-giving/
    One curious gotcha is that you cannot use these funds to receive your IRA RMD (i.e. they cannot accept qualified charitable distributions).
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Interesting discussion and yet no love for IOFCX or SEMPX. Hmmm. To be honest I get my bond exposure from PDI & PCI but they both violate msf' no leverage rule.
    Yup, I don't even screen for leveraged closed end funds. (We each have our personal blind spots.) Your funds may be excellent - I've never checked.
    A couple of other blind spots of mine - loads and high cost bond funds. Well, high cost anything, but especially when it comes to bonds. For those reasons, I haven't looked at IOFCX. Perhaps I can offer a suggestion about the load problem. Instead of buying level load C shares, you should be able to buy IOFAX A shares NTF at Schwab, and get rid of 0.75% in 12b-1 fees.
    Schwab page for A shares.
    I hadn't looked at SEMPX for a different reason. I prefer to delegate some asset management to my fund managers. So I don't explicitly seek out junk (I'm happy using multisector funds for that). I took a quick look now - virtually all MBS, potentially leveraged, low grade junk (single B average). Yikes! Definitely not my cup of tea, but it seems to work for you. Everyone builds their portfolio differently.
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder December 2017
    The barometer report.
    This week saw Old_Skeet's market barometer finish the week with a reading of 140 indicating the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. A reading one point lower and the Index would fall into the overbought area. Generally, a lower reading indicates there is less investment value over a higher reading. Based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities at this time over what my equity weighting matrix calls for by about 5%.
    Also, at this time, the barometer is not finding any of the major sectors within the Index to be undervalued or oversold from a technical score perspective. With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio where most of my mutual fund distributions are taken in cash. This in of itself will be a rebalance of sorts as a good number of mutual funds will be making their annual capital gains distributions in December. With this, I'm expecting my allocation in cash to rise and my allocation in equities to fall. Come the end of December or the first part of January I may do some buying. Currently, I'm thinking in the hybrid fund area and looking at convertibles and multialternative funds.
    In addition, you might find my comments and those made by others of interest in the thread linked below which centers around methods used to rebalance a portfolio.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/36992/ping-old-skeet-5-rebalancing-bands-for-your-fund-portfolio#latest
    Have a great week and thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Old_Skeet
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    Hi @Catch22,
    Thanks for the question.
    Q: What would I personally do?
    A: Rebalance, if I wanted to follow the discipline. Beyond this, if I was in the accumulation phase of investing I'd widen the rebalance channel from 5% to 10% perhaps even 20%. If I was in the distribution phase of investing I'd rebalance and follow the strategy. Another thing one might consider is a lower limit rebalance at 5% and an upper limit rebalance at 10% (possibly 20%) on the equity side. In this way you buy the pullback and let the winners run longer than normal.
    Currently, for me, within my own portfolio I an overweight equity based upon what my equity weighting matrix is calling for by about five percent. This is based mostly upon a seasonal investment strategy where I generally overweight equities during the fall and winter and begin to lighten up come spring (rebalance). During the summer I generally follow a neutral weighting position. The matrix is driven by my market barometer. In addition, my normal equity allocation ranges from 45% to 55%. Currently, I am at 51% to 52% range as determined by a recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis putting me somewhere between a 4% to 5% overweight over the matrix's reccomended allocation.
    In rebalancing, you are most likely booking profit making unrealized gains realized. In this way, they are less likely to get vaporized in severe market downdrafts. This raise the question. Would you rather pay taxes on your gains (if warranted) or see these unrealized gains get vaporized in severe market declines and downdrafts. I'm of the camp pay the tax (if necessary) and rebalance ... harvest some of the gains along the way and don't let them get vaporized in stock market downdrafts.
    The barometer, which follows certain metrics of the S&P 500 Index, as of Friday December 1st market close scored the Index as overvalued and not far from an overbought reading.
    In addition, I think @davidrmoran made some good comments about this as well (goals, greed, needs and risk tolerance).
    Skeet
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    In these vehicles $10k has gone to ~$42k and $26.5k since you bought, so yeah, take your equivalent of $7k or a bit more from Contra and put it into Pimco.
    OR ...
    It depends on your goals and discipline and tenets. Are you a strict (re)balancer? Do you like / are you willing to let things that have done well run?
    Most important, what are your needs and horizon? I mean, many of us run into this all the time. I myself would probably leave all alone if you do not need the money for several years. But that is the aggressive / greed of another speaking. Otoh, if you need some of this in less than, I dunno, 3-4-5y, then yeah, rebalance to Pimco. How important is 50-50 to you ?
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    Hi @Old_Skeet
    So, I purchased FCNTX and PIMIX , March 17, 2009; 50% of a total portfolio into each.
    What would one do, especially after Feb. 2013 when Fido Contra really started to walk upward and away from PIMIX?
    Would one sell pieces of FCNTX and buy more PIMIX to maintain this upper and lower limit ranges to attempt to maintain a 50/50 mix?
    The last assumption is that I definitely want to keep both funds, as I had already been a long time investor and fan of management with FCNTX and am most pleased with PIMIX as a bond balance to a strong growth fund.
    Assume all monies are IRA; so taxes are not part of the transactions.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FCNTX,PIMIX&n=2194&O=011000
    Thanks,
    Catch
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    Hi @bee,
    Thanks for posting the article.
    What you have read is just one person's take on a five percent rebalance threshold.
    My take is somewhat different. And, I'll explain. Take a 50/50 portfolio with a total value of $100,000. This would equate to $50,000 in equity and $50,000 in fixed. 5% of $50,000 is $2,500. This puts the upper limit at $52,500 and the lower limit at $47,500 and if valuations for the respective area goes above (or below) a rebalance is warranted in this example. Natually, other factors might also be considered such as (but not limited to) seasonal strategies.
  • Three Frost Funds liquidated
    Update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542817001085/frost-allocation-funds-497.txt
    497
    1
    frost-allocation-funds-497.txt
    THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
    FROST CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND
    FROST MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND
    FROST AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION FUND (THE "FUNDS")
    SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 1, 2017 TO THE
    INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS,
    EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2017 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND THE STATEMENT OF
    ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2017 (THE "SAI")
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN
    THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
    PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
    Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Funds, has approved
    a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of each Fund's assets and
    the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund's shareholders. In
    connection therewith, the Funds are closed to new investments. The Funds are
    expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about December 22, 2017 (the
    "Liquidation Date").
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
    the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of each
    Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
    prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will distribute to each such
    shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
    distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
    the Funds as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Funds, the Adviser may manage each
    Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by
    holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result,
    during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner
    consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund
    from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amounts will include any accrued income and capital
    gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be
    a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your
    particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on the Liquidation
    Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net
    asset value of each Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of
    liquidating the Fund.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    FIA-SK-046-0100
  • Vanguard Appoints New Portfolio Managers To Flagship Index Funds
    FYI: Vanguard has appointed seven experienced investment management professionals as portfolio managers of 23 equity index funds, including some of the largest index funds in the world. Vanguard, which manages $3.56 trillion in index fund assets, periodically rotates its portfolio management staff across the globe in order to strengthen the breadth and depth of the firm’s investment management capabilities.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-Vanguard-Appoints-New-Portfolio-Managers-To-Flagship-Index-Funds-113017.html
  • Investors Are Piling Into This Hot Real Estate ETF
    @catch22,
    The author estimates that $32 trillion of wealth (returns in excess of Treasury Bills) was created between 1926 and 2015 via the approximately 26,000 stocks that have appeared in the CRSP database during that time. Of these 26,000 stocks, only 86 of the top performing stocks (less than 0.33%), were collectively responsible for over half of the wealth creation. And the top 1,000 performing stocks, less than 4% of the total, accounted for all of the wealth creation. The other 96% only matched the return of the one-month Treasury Bill with many of them producing less.
    Article alludes to the long term value of owning real estate:
    https://newsmax.com/Finance/GaryCarmell/Bessembinder-Fascinating-Skewed-Study/2017/04/24/id/786073/
  • Buy - Sell - and - Ponder November 2017
    Whew. I have had VZ as an income stock on and off for 5 years, selling for tax losses almost every year, then watching it. come back up. In June, it was down to 44 and change, and I bought it for 53 last December. Sold it today at $52.36 just before the news hit about Trump having asked Flynn to meet with Russians. For once, sold at near 12 month high :) Down to a $500 loss from a loss of almost 5k. May rebuy again next year, will see.
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    @Old_Skeet, thought you make like this article on re-balancing:
    "The higher your stock allocation the more stocks have to drop to hit your 5% band. If your target is 90/10 and we assume bonds don’t change then to hit 85/15 your stocks would have to drop by 37%. To go from 75/25 to 70/30 the required drop is 22%, which is a pretty big correction. What really surprised me is that to go from 50/50 to 45/55 still requires stocks to drop 18%."
    https://thefinancebuff.com/5-percent-rebalancing-band.html
  • Bespoke: Another 1,000 Point Dow Threshold Bites The Dust
    does 1000 points even mean anything anymore?
    VF - I think you have to be in the “right” funds. I did note that VFINX gained around .75% Thursday, in line with major market averages. However, suspect that for most of us in more diversified funds the gain was only about half that - maybe less. Bonds continue to be a drag - even the short and intermediates, as that part of the curve has risen the most in recent weeks. International wasn’t that hot yesterday (unless your manager threw in some FVP).
    So, 1000 points doesn’t amount to a cup of warm spit for a great many. Correct that: Thursday’s 300+ gain in the Dow didn’t amount to much green for the average fund investor. :)
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    I have ~25% in bonds and cash, I think, but I count SS as bondlike, as I have said before, so my balance is more toward 55-45 equities-bonds.
  • Bespoke: Another 1,000 Point Dow Threshold Bites The Dust
    sold some more
    drinking same blend
    have a lot of ~3.5% debt, wondering if I should pay it down
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    @msf: I concur with your reply to my question. When the Nav dropped from $10 to $9.75 I thought they let to much new money in & found fewer & less stable bonds to purchase.
    Thanks Derf