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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Register for Webinar - Wednesday, 15 May 2019
    As highlighted in this month's commentary, we have two sessions planned, one hour each nominally, on Wednesday 15 May 2019 at 2pm and 5pm eastern ... 11am and 2 pm pacific.
    Like last time, we will employ easy-to-use Zoom web conferencing tool.
    Intention is to help walk users with the new QuickSearch tool, a "lite" version of MultiSearch, plus provide an update on our premium site’s latest features, like the Compare tool, empty column hide option, and ability to export (up to 25) funds from results table to Watchlists.
    Please register here for the first session, or here for the second session.
    Thank you!
  • M*: Q&A With David Giroux, Manager, T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund: Text & Video: (PRWCX)
    FYI: ( Unfortunately, PRWCX is closed to new investors.)
    Hi, I'm Jason Kephart, senior analyst on Morningstar's Multi-Asset and Alternatives Research Team, and I'm joined today by David Giroux, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, a fund that's been on a Joe DiMaggio-like streak over the last decade. It hasn't finished worse than 29th in the category over any single year over the last 10 years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/videos/928989/the-sector-powering-t-rowe-price-capital-appreciat.html
    M* Snapshot: PRWCX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PRWCX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PRWCX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prwcx
    PRWCX Is Ranked #6 In The(50/70 E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-50-to-70-equity/t-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-fund/prwcx
  • Barron's Cover Story: 7 Dividend Stocks For Volatile Times Ahead
    FYI: After a rocky week in the stock market, as a trade standoff with China renewed volatility, shrewd investors might want to play some defense. Bring on the dividend stocks.
    “It makes sense to be positioned a little more defensively right now,” says Thomas Huber, portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth fund (ticker: PRDGX). “You can make a good case for that. All you have to do is look back at the fourth quarter and see what happened.”
    Stocks of companies that pay robust and growing dividends are generally less volatile in times of market turmoil—as was the case in last year’s fourth quarter, when the S&P 500 index lost 13.5%, dividends included. And dividends, especially those that are growing and are well covered by cash flows, can provide steady income in times of uncertainty.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund fee being implemented on purchases
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794105/000093247119007082/ltbond497052019.htm
    497 1 ltbond497052019.htm VANGUARD LONG-TERM BOND INDEX FUND 497
    Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund
    Supplement Dated May 10, 2019, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus for Investor Shares and Admiral™ Shares Dated April 26, 2019
    Effective July 10, 2019, the Fund will charge a 0.50% fee on all purchases of its Investor Shares and Admiral Shares, including shares that you purchase by exchange from another Vanguard fund. Purchases that result from reinvested dividend or capital gains distributions are not subject to the purchase fee.
    Unlike a sales charge or a load paid to a broker or a fund management company, purchase fees are paid directly to the Fund to offset the costs of buying securities. This fee is separate from, and in addition to, other expenses charged by the Fund.
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Text Changes
    Effective July 10, 2019, the following will replace similar text under the heading “Fees and Expenses” in the Fund Summary section:
    Fees and Expenses
    The following table describes the fees and expenses you may pay if you buy and hold Investor Shares or Admiral Shares of the Fund.
    Shareholder Fees
    (Fees paid directly from your investment)
    Investor Shares Admiral Shares
    Sales Charge (Load) Imposed on Purchases None None
    Purchase Fee 0.50% 0.50%
    Sales Charge (Load) Imposed on Reinvested Dividends None None
    Redemption Fee None None
    Account Service Fee (for fund account balances
    below $10,000) $20/year $20/year
    Annual Fund Operating Expenses
    (Expenses that you pay each year as a percentage of the value of your investment)
    Investor Shares Admiral Shares1
    Management Fees 0.13% 0.04%
    12b-1 Distribution Fee None None
    Other Expenses 0.02% 0.03%
    Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses 0.15% 0.07%
    1 The expense information shown in the table reflects estimated amounts for the current fiscal year.
    Examples
    The following examples are intended to help you compare the cost of investing in the Fund’s Investor Shares or Admiral Shares with the cost of investing in other mutual funds. They illustrate the hypothetical expenses that you would incur over various periods if you were to invest $10,000 in the Fund’s shares. These examples assume that the shares provide a return of 5% each year and that total annual fund operating expenses remain as stated in the preceding table. You would incur these hypothetical expenses whether or not you were to redeem your investment at the end of the given period. Although your actual costs may be higher or lower, based on these assumptions your costs would be:
    1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
    Investor Shares $65 $98 $134 $241
    Admiral Shares $57 $72 $89 $139
    Prospectus Text Changes
    In the More on the Funds section, a new section “Purchase and Transaction Fees” will be added after the “Temporary Investment Measures” section:
    Purchase and Transaction Fees
    Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund charges a fee of 0.50% on all purchases of shares, including shares that you purchase by exchange from another Vanguard fund.
    In addition, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund each reserve the right to charge the following transaction fees to investors whose aggregate share purchases into a Fund equal or exceed the following amounts:
    Vanguard Fund Transaction Fee Aggregate Purchases
    Total Bond Market Index Fund 0.25% Over $500 million
    Short-Term Bond Index Fund 0.15 Over $200 million
    Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund 0.25 Over $100 million
    Each of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund may impose these transaction fees if an investor’s aggregate purchases into a Fund over a 12-month period exceed, or are expected to exceed, the indicated amounts upon notice to the client in conjunction with a purchase that triggers application of the fees. The transaction fees will be assessed only if the client elects to proceed with the purchase. Generally, these fees will not apply to transactions coordinated in advance between a client and Vanguard.
    Unlike a sales charge or a load paid to a broker or a fund management company, purchase and transaction fees are paid directly to the Fund to offset the costs of buying securities.
    See Investing With Vanguard for more information about fees.
    In the Investing With Vanguard section, the following will replace similar text that begins with the heading “Transaction Fees on Purchases”:
    Purchase and Transaction Fees
    Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund charges a fee of 0.50% on purchases of shares, including shares that you purchase by exchange from another Vanguard fund.
    In addition, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund each reserve the right to charge the following transaction fees to investors whose aggregate share purchases into a Fund equal or exceed the following amounts:
    Vanguard Fund Transaction Fee Aggregate Purchases
    Total Bond Market Index Fund 0.25% Over $500 million
    Short-Term Bond Index Fund 0.15 Over $200 million
    Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund 0.25 Over $100 million
    Each of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund, and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund may impose these transaction fees if an investor’s aggregate purchases into a Fund over a 12-month period exceed, or are expected to exceed, the indicated amounts upon notice to the client in conjunction with a purchase that triggers application of the fees. The transaction fees will be assessed only if the client elects to proceed with the purchase. Generally, these fees will not apply to transactions coordinated in advance between a client and Vanguard.
    Purchase fees will not apply to Vanguard fund account purchases in the following circumstances: (1) purchases of shares through reinvested dividends or capital gains distributions; (2) share transfers, rollovers, or reregistrations within the same fund; (3) conversions of shares from one share class to another in the same fund; (4) purchases in kind; and (5) share rollovers to an IRA within the same Vanguard fund for plans in which Vanguard serves as a recordkeeper. Unlike a sales charge or a load paid to a broker or a fund management company, purchase and transaction fees are paid directly to the Fund to offset the costs of buying securities.
    © 2019 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor...
    (includes institutional classes also)
  • Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate
    While there's little here that I disagree with, I do wonder how relevant it is to the past five years - the ones M* characterized as growth leaning. Yes, traditional value metrics like P/E were skewed following GFC. But was that still true from 2013 onward?
    Yes, tobacco stocks have traditionally been regarded as value stocks, and troubled in the 90s due to the anticipated 1998 settlement. But these days? I'm having a hard time finding value funds with tobacco stocks in their top 25 holdings. I spot checked DODGX, LLPFX, VEIRX, TAVFX, PRFDX (MO is #23 at 1.37%), MDISX (BATS is #21 at 1.50%), YAFFX (KT&G is #25 at 0.68%), TBGVX. Maybe I'm just not looking at the right funds, but it looks like value funds aren't finding much "value" in tobacco.
    We can each define value investing however we want. Just look at Bill Miller. I think your observation about concentration and protection goes a long way toward explaining the failure of this fund, value or not.
  • Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate
    RIP
    Here are its return and risk numbers through April:
    image
  • Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate
    Certainly that describes the fund's portfolio now. Looking at its performance graph (e.g. in the latest [Dec 2018] annual report), one can see it diverge sharply from the S&P 500 starting around 2012-2013. It also significantly underperformed its category starting around 2012, with the exception of 2016.
    The fund has been investing in Consolidated Tomoka since 2006. Going along with your comment about Berkowitz, Wintergreen held a significant portion of Consolidated Tomoka (over 5%) since day one. But it didn't represent an excessively large portion of the fund until the last 2-3 years. So while this stock holding does help explain more recent problems (thanks!), there's more to the story than one stock and a manager's obsession with it.
    At the end of 2013 CTO represented about 2.6% of Wintergreen. The fund's top holdings were Jardines (7%), Swatch (7%), and Berkshire Hathaway, with a good amount of tobacco thrown in (BAT and Reynolds, over 10% combined).
    At the end of 2014, tobacco moved up, with Reynolds in top spot (7.3%) but also BAT (6.8%) and Altria (4.7%). Consolidated Tomoka appears in the top ten at 4.7%, primarily through appreciation (50%+) but also because of some AUM shrinkage (15%). The fund continued to hold the same number of shares as it had since 2012; they represented 21% of CTO. (The 2014 annual report has a discussion of this holding.)
    By the end of 2015, Consolidated Tomoka had grown enough to have become the fund's second largest holding (9.3%). Again, with no additional stock purchases, and with tobacco still the dominant holding - Reynolds (12.4%), BAT (8.5%), Altria (6.3%). CTO's performance (down around 6%) was in line with the fund's 2015 performance (down7%). The rise to 2nd largest holding was thus due to the fact that people were pulling money out of the fund and Winters didn't sell off CTO pro-rata. AUM dropped over 50%.
    So arguably it wasn't until 2016 that CTO began to dominate the fund. But Winters also continued favoring tobacco during this period. By the end of 2016, CTO constituted 13.9% of the fund, while tobacco kept pace, with Reynolds now at 19.5%, BAT at 9.4%, and Altria at 7%. Tobacco stocks now accounted for three of the four largest holdings. CTO was essentially flat on the year, while the fund itself performed well relative to its peers, gaining 6.67%.
    Once again, the increased fraction of the fund that CTO represented was a result of people pulling money out of the fund (AUM down nearly 1/3) and Winters hanging on to CTO, and onto the tobacco stocks. Note also that real estate didn't grow much as a fraction of the fund in 2016 (just to 13.9% up from 13.5%), because Winters gave up on his other real estate holding, Sun Hung Kai.
    By the end of 2017, CTO was the fund's largest holding, at 20.4%. BAT (now owning Reynolds) was 16.1%, and Altria 5.7%. That was a result of CTO appreciating 20% and AUM shrinking 20%. Again, no change in the number of shares owned by the fund.
    Finally, by the end of 2018, CTO represents 42.6% of the company (despite underperforming in 2018), BAT is still the second largest holding, but that's just 5.9% of the fund. Tobacco and every other stock have become nearly immaterial.
  • Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate
    I would definitely not call Wintergreen a growth fund regardless of what the stylebox says. To understand it, you really need to understand one stock which makes up 45% of its portfolio: Consolidated Tomoka Land https://morningstar.com/stocks/XASE/CTO/quote.html
    That company may have high valuations landing it in the growth stock corner of the style box, but it definitely isn't a rapidly growing stock. It is a real estate company which doesn't have much in the way of earnings--hence the high apparent valuation--yet all of its value is ostensibly in the land it owns which it can sell. Its an asset value play and an activism play as Winters got involved with the company's board. This kind of activism play has some affinity to Michael Price but not at this level of concentration and not without tradional arb plays to reduce risk you find in Mutual Series. The fund made a big bet on undervalued real estate much like Fairholme's Berkowitz did with St. Joe and failed. Still, the style is different enough from Mutual Series, more aggressive value with less arb. It is one of the reasons I also question the other Price student fund Evermore, which seems far more agressive and volatile than the Mutual Series funds.
  • Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate

    To me this has as much to do with the fickleness of investment trends as anything else. We have very short memories and tend to think things will always remain as they are. It’s possible Winters had it right, but was out of step with the current indexing / momentum driven investment climate. Who knows? I don’t pretend to. But don't dismiss Winters as an investing lightweight. The picture is a bit more complex than it might appear on surface.
    OTOH, the Mutual Series funds have continued to do moderately well with their old familiar deep value/vulture style. So perhaps it just required a bit of evolution over time, and Winters went off track.
    MUTHX, M* writes: "Cheap stocks and merger-arbitrage plays typically constitute 80% to 90% of assets, while the remainder is in distressed debt and cash."
    MQIFX, M* writes: "Its strategy is similar to that of other Franklin Mutual Series offerings, but it holds far more debt than its siblings. Cheap stocks and merger-arbitrage plays typically comprise 55%-75% of the fund's assets, while the remainder of the portfolio is invested in distressed debt and cash."
    These sound very much like Michael Price's Mutual Series funds. Their style box shows what you'd expect, offset well into the value column. In contrast, Wintergreen's shows this narrow slice solidly across the growth column. He's been investing in growth stocks since at least 2014 (that's as far back as M* shows style boxes on a fund's portfolio page).
  • Sell In May?
    Hi Guys,
    Myths are resilient. They seem to be believed even when accumulating evidence doesn’t justify them. Such is the case with the sell in May flawed wisdom. Simply put, it is wrong. When investing, the historical database supports a buy and hold strategy. Here is a Link that documents that conclusion:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/04/08/busting-the-sell-in-may-and-go-away-myth/#58a398878808
    From that article: “ The clear winner in this three horse race was a buy and hold investment strategy”. Indeed, myths are resilient, but the data shows the hard truth. So, stay the course!
    Best Regards
  • Fidelity Launches Fidelity Women’s Leadership Fund: (FWOMX)
    FYI: Fidelity Investments®, one of the industry’s most diversified financial services organizations with more than $7.4 trillion in client assets1, today announced the launch of Fidelity Women’s Leadership Fund (FWOMX). The actively managed mutual fund is available with both retail and advisor share classes, with no investment minimums.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190508005124/en/Fidelity-Investments®-Launches-Fidelity-Women’s-Leadership-Fund
  • Opinion: How to trade stocks as Trump threatens China with new tariffs
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-trade-stocks-as-trump-threatens-china-with-new-tariffs-2019-05-06
    Opinion: How to trade stocks as Trump threatens China with new tariffs
    By Nigam Arora
    Published: May 7, 2019 10:04 a.m. ET
    Share
    The S&P 500 Index has five new support zones
    Reuters
    President Donald Trump
    A question for investors today is how they want to react to President Trump threatening to put more tariffs on Chinese goods.
    Let’s explore the issue with the help of a chart.
    Chart
    Please click here for an annotated chart of ETF S&P 500 ETF SPY, -0.35% which represents the S&P 500 Index SPX, -1.65% Please note the following:
    • The Chinese are notorious for dragging out negotiations to get the best deal. Irrespective of your political leanings, Trump’s latest move seems to be in the long-term best interest of the U.S. and the stock market.
    • The short term for the stock market is a different story.
    • The chart shows five support zones. These support zones are based on a number of factors that have proven to be accurate in the past including how algorithms tend to trade as well as money flows.
    • The chart shows the target zone for a potentially explosive rally on a short squeeze. If it turns out that there is a good trade deal soon, those who are short-selling now will be forced to cover at much higher prices.
    • Expect stocks that are dependent on China to be affected more. These include Apple AAPL, -0.33% Starbucks SBUX, -0.13% Nike NKE, -1.23% and Yum China YUMC, -0.62% Expect less impact on Google GOOG, -1.29% GOOGL, -1.22% Amazon AMZN, -0.39% and Facebook FB, -0.25% Microsoft MSFT, -0.35% and semiconductor stocks such as Intel INTC, -0.04% AMD AMD, -0.98% and Micron Technology MU, -1.07% may be adversely affected.
    • Expect Chinese stocks such as Alibaba BABA, -0.57% and JD.com JD, -1.00% to be adversely affected.
  • What We’ve Learned About Target-Date Funds, 10 Years Later
    Both series of T. Rowe Price funds, "Target Date" and "Retirement", have glide paths. If you want static allocation ("target risk") funds, those would be Price's "Personal Strategy" funds.
    Here are the glide paths for the Target Date funds and the Retirement funds. The former are more conservative.
    Target Date glide path:
    image
    Retirement glide path:
    image
    The Personal Strategy funds are:
    Income (PRSIX) - 40% equity (55% bond/cash, 5% alternative)
    Balanced (TRPBX) - 60% equity (35% bond/cash, 5% alternative)
    Growth (TRSGX) - 80% equity (16% bond/cash, 4% alternative)
    This series is not to be confused with older allocation funds like TRP Balanced (RPBAX), with its somewhat more mundane allocation of 65% stock, 35% bond.
  • The Benefits of 'Market-Sensitive' Portfolio
    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-benefits-of-marketsensitive-portfolios-cm1143292
    The Benefits of 'Market-Sensitive' Portfolios
    Leland Hevner, May 06, 2019, 02:59:51 PM EDT
    By Leland B. Hevner
    President, National Association of Online Investors (NAOI)
    In this article I discuss how a new investment type developed by the NAOI called Dynamic Investments makes portfolios “market-sensitive”. I then discuss the benefits of this development.
  • What We’ve Learned About Target-Date Funds, 10 Years Later
    Thanks for explaining that @MikeM. Too many different funds from TRP nowadays if you ask me, but I guess they need that to remain competitive. Have to wonder if they couldn’t rename that static fund category. It need not be solely for retirement. May be good reasons someone wants a particular risk exposure regardless of years to retirement.
    20-25 years ago I could name most of TP’s funds and explain what they were all about. Today it’s hopeless.
    Another thought. That “allocation fee” Oppenheimer slaps on their allocation funds - might make sense if the underlying funds they hold are some type of institutional class or otherwise paying a lower ER. I doubt that’s the case, but might be worth someone’s time to check on it.
  • Here's John, Hussman That Is
    FYI: While stocks staged a remarkable comeback from Monday’s deep decline, they still closed in the red. A day later, and the sellers are back at it.
    Long-suffering market bears, like John Hussman, have to be savoring this kind of action. After all, when things turn south, Hussman’s fortunes turn north.
    In fact, riding the cred he earned from calling prior market collapses, his assets under management swelled to almost $7 billion. Now, however, after years of underperformance, that figure stands at a fraction of what it once was.
    Hussman’s flagship $312-million Strategic Growth Fund HSGFX, +0.17% , which focuses on “the protection of capital during unfavorable market conditions,” has had a rough go of it during this relentless bull market, shedding almost 9% a year, on average, since 2014, according to Morningstar.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho-hum-a-65-market-plunge-would-be-run-of-the-mill-fund-manager-says-2019-05-07/print