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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Value time again ??? Recent indicators and returns pointing a new direction for the hot money?
    I’ve felt it was “value time” for the past 5 years. But that’s just me. Not everybody sees it that way.
    On the other hand, doubt anything out there is really cheap. Proceed at your own risk.
    Warning: You are about to enter the “annual distribution zone.”
    (PRPFX was the first of mine to take a haircut today.)
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Gundlach Says 'Strange Environment' To Be Cutting U.S. Corporate Taxes: + Yellen's Legacy
    JG on why commodities might be a good choice over equities:
    In a response to a question about whether having 10 percent of a portfolio in gold is "too much," Gundlach said he would rather put 10 to 15 percent of his investments in commodities broadly rather than gold alone.
    jeffrey-gundlach-says-its-a-good-time-to-buy-commodities?
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • How AI Will Invade Every Corner Of Wall Street
    FYI: Machine learning, with its prowess in producing insights from data, is poised to have a hand in 99 percent of investing, CEO says.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-05/how-ai-will-invade-every-corner-of-wall-street
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • Fraudulent CC Transactions
    Thanks for all the comments guys. One reason I haven't contacted Lyft is because I am not their client. Best to work through Discover. THEY are liable for all charges and can deal with Lyft. We have new card now and don't see any other transaction we don't recognize.
    Why wait for bill to arrive in mail? Good question. One reason - simplify life. There is already too much computer / online usage we are trying to cut down. As family I make my daughter call me from college instead of continuous texting, for instance. I want to check mail just once a week and pay bills. I DO NOT want to be constantly connected. However, one thing we should do I realize as I'm typing this is to sign up for text alert when card is used.
    Now once again, Lyft app asks for Name, CC#, Security Code, Address, Phone Number. You would think they would verify ALL before letting you use the app. The ONLY party that can easily know all of the above is someone at Discover. The waiter who takes my card away could perhaps be "selling" information to someone who can dig up my Phone Number and address. BUT how does he spoof my Phone? I know it's possible to do that because I've received calls from myself asking me to type last 4 digits of my SSN from cyber theives out there (google, it is fairly common)
    Someone (how?) stole my information happens to be a Lyft employee? Okay, HTF did he get Security Code? Or the waiter above worked with someone from Lyft?
    Sometimes the answer is indeed the most obvious one. I agree I might be suffering from unconscious bias since my personal experience on identity theft was an inside job, I'm predisposed to thinking that's the case again. I don't buy someone was "testing" the card with Lyft. How many times does he need to test? There were 25+ transactions over 3 weeks.
    Finally whenever CC card is used online, they ask you BILLING address. If you are receiving something there is SHIPPING address. If Merchants are not verifying information against BILLING address they are not fulfilling their fiduciary responsibilities. Lyft is not a Mom-Pop shop.
    It would very well be a CROOK at Discover or INCOMPETENCE at Lyft or Both
    VintageFreak VintageFreak in Fund Discussions
  • The Perils Of Calling The Peak Of The Equities Bull Run
    oh, he is close to permabear (note 'buy gold / silver' at the bottom of his own site)
    this may have been posted already but I did not see it, an extraordinary summary of risks real and imagined:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-overwhelming-evidence-that-the-us-stock-market-is-heading-for-disaster-2017-12-05
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • The Plumb Report - A Portfolio of a Diffrent Color...Mostly Silver and Gold
    I receive updates to the "model portfolio" which relies heavily on Gold and Silver to color its performance returns. It December allocation is as follows:
    image
    The Author attempt to out perform 95% of all mutual funds over a 10 year period...not always successfully I might add.
    plumbreport.com/?page_id=51
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Hi @bee,
    Thanks for posting your findings on IOFIX. Indeed, I found the review of the material to be interesting. Don't know how Junkster finds these kind of funds ... but, I am sure glad he makes "some" of his better findings know on the MFO board.
    I'm looking to read what he has to say (on his picks and thoughts) come January.
    In addition, I just came form viewing the earnings outlook on the S&P 500 Index for 2018 on several sites I use for reference. Seems forward estimates are looking towards $155.00 full year on down towards the $135.00 range. Let's see ... $135.00 X 20 = 2700 ... $155.00 X 20 = 3100 ... and, a blended number of $145.00 X 20 = 2900.
    Your guess is a good as mine ... but, the blended number bubbles pretty good.
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Value time again ??? Recent indicators and returns pointing a new direction for the hot money?
    I cruise through the Fidelity family funds to look at the various funds and their actions. At the Thanksgiving period I noticed that most of the funds that were associated with "value" were having positive days when growth funds were either neutral or down. I continued to watch and perhaps the hot money wants to move to the down trodden market area; at least relative to growth for this year.
    You do not need to login to view this Fidelity list. Click upon the the NAV% column to sort for return percentage for the day.
    Another day of significant change between growth and value types.
    http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-funds-daily-pricing-yields?refpr=MFRes_016
    Value and Growth do rotate.....a short view in this chart.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE&p=5&O=011000
    Chart for etf's listed in below link. The visual short term changes between value and growth of all capsizes, which started a more dramatic move around Nov. 25.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE,JKI,JKH,JKL,JKK&p=0&O=011000
    Lipper over view of categories/styles:
    http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-lipperindx.html?mod=topnav_2_3023
    Lastly, the daily return for these two today:
    ---JKF = +1.1%
    ---JKE = -1.2%
    The past week for these two:
    --- JKF =+4%
    --- JKE = -1.2%
    JKF has a YTD return of: +13%
    JKE has a YTD return of: +28.9%
    Well, anyway; perhaps something to think about viewing your favorite growth and value investments comparison.
    Most assuredly would appreciate comments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    I found this presentation interesting of IOFIX (IOFAX).
    Website:
    alphacentricfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/IOFAX-Presentation-January-2017-Retail.pdf
    image
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • Dash of Insight - Fund Sectors Impacted by Tax Overhaul
    Potential Impact of Cash Repatriation on EPS of Stocks (S&P 500 and Tech) :
    fundamentalis.com/?p=7403
    A look at 4th Quarter Earnings Estimates and Interesting Cash Repatriation Spreadsheet:
    fundamentalis.com/?p=7397
    Close-up of Spreadsheet:
    fundamentalis.com/wp-content/uploads/cashrepat113017.png
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • Dash of Insight - Fund Sectors Impacted by Tax Overhaul
    Mondays are always a good day to read this blog (linked below).
    This Monday discusses (among other things) the Impact that The Tax Overhaul will have a financial sectors:
    image
    Link to the entire Blog:
    dashofinsight.com/
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • What To Consider Before You Dash Into Cash
    A good perspective on the S&P 500 can be found here:
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/12/01/s-p-500-snapshot-up-1-53-from-last-week
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • What To Consider Before You Dash Into Cash
    FYI: As stocks continue to march mostly higher, many investors are asking the same question: Isn’t this a good time to sell stocks and put more of my portfolio into cash?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-to-consider-before-you-dash-into-cash-1512357360
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • What Are Donor-Advised Funds?
    FYI: These funds allow investors to set aside money for a future charitable gift, but get the tax deduction immediately.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-are-donor-advised-funds-1512356401
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Junkster's Forum Comment
    Here is looking at you @MikeM.
    Discuss > Single Post All PostsForumsBlogsSharingTopicsJoin
    Re: Bond OEFs - what now
    Junkster 11-02-2017, 11:05 AM | Post #3880685 |
    0
    >>>> FD says "Most of my money is in 3 horses PIMIX,IOFIX and NHMAX(switched from PHMIX was luck or skill??). IOFIX last jump was 8/22, are we going to see the next one this month? let's see if the pattern will continue.<<<<<<
    Hope you are right about IOFIX FD. My problem is when a pattern becomes too well known and predictable....... Last year it had a big jump on September 30 and then it wasn't until February 24 of this year for the next one. Plus AUM which have grown dramatically may impact the pattern. But I will stay put with IOFIX for awhile. Pimco's Mark Kiesel said just the other day that non agencies are mispriced and " are among the few bonds that have price upside"
    I've found a newer fund and a mini IOFIX I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. It's not available in all states and I contacted them to have it blue skied in my home state of KY which takes but a few weeks. I went through that process with SPFRX when it was a young fund back in 2015. Regardless, looking forward to 2018 and seeing where the momentum will be. Junk corporates are so unloved because of valuations they may surprise. Or maybe bank loans because we may have more aggressive rate hikes.
    Will check back in next year. After this post immediately deleting all my trading and investing forums. Winter off trail hiking is just around the corner. At 70 years old hanging out on forums has lost much of its appeal. Good luck to everyone.</blockquote>
    And your point is? The Master of Misrepresentation strikes again conveniently omitting this was a post made on the Morningstar board. Trying to stir things up? That was simply my way of saying goodbye to the Morningstar forums. Had never posted there till IOFIX became a topic of conversation after my comments made on this board earlier in the year. Some great posters and conversations over there but not my cup of tea. But no way was I able to delete this fine board try as I could. As for that mystery fund much ado about nothing. The River Canyon Total Return Bond fund for the time being will not be available on any retail brokerage platforms.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Junkster's Forum Comment
    Here is looking at you @MikeM.
    Discuss > Single Post All PostsForumsBlogsSharingTopicsJoin
    Re: Bond OEFs - what now
    Junkster 11-02-2017, 11:05 AM | Post #3880685 |
    0
    >>>> FD says "Most of my money is in 3 horses PIMIX,IOFIX and NHMAX(switched from PHMIX was luck or skill??). IOFIX last jump was 8/22, are we going to see the next one this month? let's see if the pattern will continue.<<<<<<
    Hope you are right about IOFIX FD. My problem is when a pattern becomes too well known and predictable....... Last year it had a big jump on September 30 and then it wasn't until February 24 of this year for the next one. Plus AUM which have grown dramatically may impact the pattern. But I will stay put with IOFIX for awhile. Pimco's Mark Kiesel said just the other day that non agencies are mispriced and " are among the few bonds that have price upside"
    I've found a newer fund and a mini IOFIX I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. It's not available in all states and I contacted them to have it blue skied in my home state of KY which takes but a few weeks. I went through that process with SPFRX when it was a young fund back in 2015. Regardless, looking forward to 2018 and seeing where the momentum will be. Junk corporates are so unloved because of valuations they may surprise. Or maybe bank loans because we may have more aggressive rate hikes.
    Will check back in next year. After this post immediately deleting all my trading and investing forums. Winter off trail hiking is just around the corner. At 70 years old hanging out on forums has lost much of its appeal. Good luck to everyone.
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Polen Global Growth
    @VintageFreak
    This fund has been in my portfolio since 2015. Watching to see what happens with current fund management and holdings makes sense. Polen Capital executes a specific process. The remaining managers know that process. The firm has been putting some focus into international investing in recent years. I'll hold on to see how things go in 2018. Given the low turnover rate and small number of holdings, I don't expect there will be any rapid decline in performance over the short term due to the management change. So, I don't feel a need to make a rushed decision.
    davfor davfor in Fund Discussions
  • David Snowball's December Commentary Is Now Available
    Thanks, Ted.
    Thanks, too, for the heads-up on the Steadman Funds. He really was a visionary (how many people would devote a fund to ocean nodule mining ... oh, wait! The same folks who'd imagine a fund devoted to 3D printing!) and a crackpot.
    I think the bitcoin piece was worth writing, and might be worth reading. It's easy for most of us to shake our heads, mumble about tulip bulbs and move on. It's likely important, though, to anticipate how we might be affected by the securitization of bitcoin speculation: that is, what happens when average investors are tempted into moving parts of actual portfolios in ETFs tied to bitcoin derivatives? What happens when institutional investors follow the same path? It now looks like the window for answering such questions is no more than 18 months and might well be "sometime in 2018".
    It's interesting to watch the evolution of Rondure and the continued strength of their partner, Grandeur Peak. They do offer some credibility for the case that (a) true talent is rare and (b) true talent exists.
    I'm a bit sad that the team at Sentinel Balanced wasn't transferred to Touchstone Balanced; I have a nice "left behind by Morningstar" profile of the fund written, and was just waiting for the transition of ownership to close before sharing it. It may turn out to be a fine new fund, but it really becomes a new fund now rather than a star in the shadows. The equity sleeve seems more promising than the income sleeve, so we'll wait and watch. The Small Cap and International funds, though, seem worth more immediate attention.
    More than a bit sad at the closure of the Croft funds. Good people and a good longer term record who seem to have been undone by this last, least rational phase (umm, the long-term average p/e in the stock market is about 15, the average p/e for our more conservative slice - large cap value funds - today is 23).
    And really quite sad about losing the Amazon relationship. In round figures, that's $7000/year that just vanished. If we move to their Amazon Smiles program instead, those same purchases would net us a cool $550 instead. And we're not signing-on to commercial clutter in what I think of as "the last quiet spot" on the web. Nuts.
    Ed continues to think interesting thoughts, and listening to people that most of us miss. Charles continues rewiring the system behind the scenes. Chip continues to make it all appear, and appear effortless. I'm deeply grateful to them all.
    And to you.
    David
    David_Snowball in Fund Discussions
  • S&P 500 Returns In December: 1950-2016
    FYI: Do some months have significantly different market returns than others?
    This calculator uses sixty-odd years of S&P 500 data to let you see for yourself. Select a month; the calculator will show you its good and bad years and overall return, for the years from 1950 until recently.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm
    CXO Advisory Trading Calendar: December
    https://www.cxoadvisory.com/trading-calendar/december/
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • M*: ETF Fund Focus: SPDR S&P Dividend ETF: (SDY)
    If one insists on going this dividend payment route then you might want to look at VYM where you can up the yield by 0.50% and cut your expense ratio from 0.35% down to 0.08%.
    Mark Mark in Fund Discussions