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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Symons Value Institutional Fund conversion
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000139834419003316/fp0039746_497.htm
    497 1 fp0039746_497.htm
    February 26, 2019
    SYMONS VALUE INSTITUTIONAL FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated February 25, 2019
    Class II shares were added by a prospectus effective February 25, 2019. The Board of Trustees of Unified Series Trust has approved the conversion of the Fund’s Class I shares into Class II shares, which is expected to take place after the close of business on March 27, 2019. Class II shares are not available for purchase until after the conversion has taken place.
    Shareholders who currently hold Class I shares will receive Class II shares equivalent in aggregate value at the time of conversion, and affected shareholders will experience lower net operating expense ratios. The share class conversion is not expected to be a taxable event for federal income tax purposes, and should not result in the recognition of gain or loss by converting shareholders.
    Effective immediately following the conversion of Class I shares into Class II shares, Symons Capital Management, Inc. the Fund’s investment adviser, has contractually agreed to reduce the management fee on Class II shares to 0.90%, and to reduce the expense cap for Class II shares so that total operating expenses (excluding certain expenses described in footnote 2 to the fee table shown below) do not exceed 0.97% of the Fund’s average daily net assets.
    The Fees and Expenses of the Fund and Expense Example sub-sections in the Summary Section of the prospectus will be deleted and replaced as follows:...
  • Help with Int'l/Global
    Be advised that MGGPX is a world fund with a current allocation of roughly 55% US/ 45% foreign and cash. In my opinion this makes it incomparable to your current Int'l holding.
    I am of the very small minority opinion that you don't need a dedicated foreign fund but I do own MGGPX and TIBIX.
    Thank you Mark and Investor. That's not so much a concern, more so having a solid fund with foreign exposure I can add to over time. Even something like VWIGX looks appealing, but I'm still testing the waters.
    MGGPX, at least to my limited knowledge, would not be a core piece, but an add on with potential upside. My concern with the fund, unless others differ, is that buying now feels like chasing past performance, and paying the fees to do so. Also, with such a small basket of stocks, it runs the risk of an easy plummet.
  • Help with Int'l/Global
    Be advised that MGGPX is a world fund with a current allocation of roughly 55% US/ 45% foreign and cash. In my opinion this makes it incomparable to your current Int'l holding.
    I am of the very small minority opinion that you don't need a dedicated foreign fund but I do own MGGPX and TIBIX.
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    @MikeW: I've got just about all I want in emerging markets. So, I'm now prospecting.
    Often times I reference Ron Rowland's Leadership Strategy which I have linked below for easy viewing.
    http://investwithanedge.com/market-leadership-strategy
    Notice that the most out of favor position within the strategy is micro caps. Well, I've been thinking for sometime to add a micro-cap fund to my portfolio. Now might be a good time for me to open a starter position before the micro caps get discovered and start catching strong money. In this way I can start the holding through a position cost average process and build it over time as it moves up in the pecking order within the strategy.
    I have linked below a micro cap fund that I've had under review for a while. It is off its 52 week high by a little better than 10%. Once you open the link click on fact sheet. Perhaps, its available load fee on some platforms.
    https://www.gabelli.com/Template/fundinfo.cfm?tid=MzA4NWM=&pid=det&rid=7111=edoc_dnuf
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    Here’s a well diversified equity fund from T. Rowe Price: T. Rowe Price Spectrum Growth Fund PRSGX (.78% ER). I love this one - but don’t think I’ve ever owned it. While termed a domestic equity fund, it’s currently got 35% invested in foreign stocks. Very well diversified among a dozen or more Price’s actively managed funds.
    Alright - it’s slightly over that .70 figure, but blend it with a 25% slug of their Inflation Protected Bond Fund PRIPX (ER .41) and you’re under below the .70 figure.
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    One area in which I'm in agreement with @MJG is that I don't publish my portfolio. How I invest may be totally wrong for someone else. My investments are spread over a wide variety of families, though some of my largest holdings by family include Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, DFA, Harbor, Lazard, American Funds. Institutional class shares when I can get them.
    Most of those families tend to run in the 0.60% to 0.90% ER range. Vanguard and DFA of course are much lower, and since Vanguard is my largest fund family by weight, those funds pull my average ER comfortably below 0.7%. @hank pointed this out also.
    I've got real (i.e. more than placeholder) positions in only a couple of funds costing substantially more than 1%. Small cap int'l - hard to hold that down, and a mid cap fund (but that one's still just a small part of my portfolio).
    The key to keeping one's ER low is not to go wild with funds costing over 1%. If you do that and make liberal use of low cost families, you'll have a modest cost portfolio.
    Sadly, my bond funds don't do much to improve my average ER. While vanilla bond funds (including my vanilla core fund) can be found easily for around 0.45% (see, e.g. DODIX above), multisector and some other categories of bond funds tend to run higher.
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    @JoJo26,
    I don’t know what funds @msf might own. But I do know it isn’t hard to put together a pretty well diversified actively managed fund portfolio with an average ER well under that .70% ER figure. I own some D&C myself. Have listed their 6 funds and their ERs below.
    Solid house. Great for really long term investors.
    Dodge & Cox International DODFX .63
    Dodge & Cox Global. DODWX .63
    Dodge & Cox Stock DODGX .52
    Dodge & Cox Balanced DODBX .53
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond DODLX .45
    Dodge & Cox Income DODIX .43
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    My blended ER is less than 70 bps. I run everything independently via Fidelity. The core of my portfolio passive equity exposure as it's my belief that active manager add little value in most market segment.

    JoJo26, well done with your overall ER with other advisor fees! Over time, these fees really add up quickly. There are more ETFs and actively managed ETFs with NO trading commission at large brokerages (Fidelity and Schwab) available today. Vanguard is working hard to catch up in this offering.

    My blended ER is also less than 70 bps. I run everything independently via a variety of channels (including direct, brokerages, insurance companies, banks). The core, in fact all of my current portfolio is actively invested, whether equity or fixed income.
    As OJ wrote, if you like American Funds, and if you have enough invested with them, you can construct a substantially different type of actively managed portfolio than mine and not have to scurry from channel to channel. No broker fees, no loads, low cost.
    If you want to work at it, it may be possible (without using a 401k) to buy R5 shares for some American Funds at an "all in" cost that's lower than A shares (or F-1 shares) cost. Though sometimes saving a just few bucks may not seem worth the effort. Especially if it takes a long term commitment to pay off.
    Nevertheless, that's how you shave a quarter percent off of TCMPX (TCMIX avail at Fidelity and Vanguard with a $25K min + TF in IRAs); that's how you cut a few basis points off FMIMX (FMIUX avail at Fidelity with a $2500 min + TF in IRAs), and how you save a whopping 37 bps on QUSOX (QUSIX at Fidelity w/$2500 min + TF in IRAs).
    I don't know what "Vanguard is working hard to catch up in this offering" means (ETFs?). Vanguard is the
    second largest sponsor of ETFs. Schwab and Fidelity are pumping out PR about selling 500 ETFs without fees, while Vanguard offers about 1800 ETFs without TFs.
    May I ask what actively managed funds you're using to to have a total blend of less than 70 bps when they're all active.
  • Best To Leave Chinese Bond Investing To The Pros For A While: (DSUM) - (KCCB)
    Probably nothing better that MAINX for Asian bonds. 35% China, 15% Hong Kong. It's a ride, but I like the fund.
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    @MikeW: The barometer follows the S&P 500 Index. Another means that I use to find value is to see how far below a fund is trading form it's 52 week high. Take my two emerging market funds. DWGAX is off its 52 week high by about 12% while NEWFX is off its 52 week high by about 8%. With this, I'm finding more value in DWGAX than NEWFX. One of my investment strategies through the years has been to buy some in my most out of favor holdings in belief that they will again find favor with investors. Most of the time they do. And, for me, this has worked better through the years than momentum based strategies (buying what is hot and in favor).
  • Best To Leave Chinese Bond Investing To The Pros For A While: (DSUM) - (KCCB)
    FYI: More Chinese companies are defaulting on their bonds. That’s a good thing in the long term. It could also be a good thing in the short term for investors who know what they are doing. But it’s not an asset class you can easily navigate from an armchair. “As risk is priced more accurately in Chinese credit markets, it creates opportunities for experienced investors,” says Paul Lukaszewski, head of Asian corporate debt for Aberdeen Standard Investments.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinese-bond-investing-gets-too-tricky-for-small-investors-51550270821?mod=djem_b_Weekly barrons_daily_newsletter
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    My blended ER is less than 70 bps. I run everything independently via Fidelity. The core of my portfolio passive equity exposure as it's my belief that active manager add little value in most market segment.

    JoJo26, well done with your overall ER with other advisor fees! Over time, these fees really add up quickly. There are more ETFs and actively managed ETFs with NO trading commission at large brokerages (Fidelity and Schwab) available today. Vanguard is working hard to catch up in this offering.
    My blended ER is also less than 70 bps. I run everything independently via a variety of channels (including direct, brokerages, insurance companies, banks). The core, in fact all of my current portfolio is actively invested, whether equity or fixed income.
    As OJ wrote, if you like American Funds, and if you have enough invested with them, you can construct a substantially different type of actively managed portfolio than mine and not have to scurry from channel to channel. No broker fees, no loads, low cost.
    If you want to work at it, it may be possible (without using a 401k) to buy R5 shares for some American Funds at an "all in" cost that's lower than A shares (or F-1 shares) cost. Though sometimes saving a just few bucks may not seem worth the effort. Especially if it takes a long term commitment to pay off.
    Nevertheless, that's how you shave a quarter percent off of TCMPX (TCMIX avail at Fidelity and Vanguard with a $25K min + TF in IRAs); that's how you cut a few basis points off FMIMX (FMIUX avail at Fidelity with a $2500 min + TF in IRAs), and how you save a whopping 37 bps on QUSOX (QUSIX at Fidelity w/$2500 min + TF in IRAs).
    I don't know what "Vanguard is working hard to catch up in this offering" means (ETFs?). Vanguard is the second largest sponsor of ETFs. Schwab and Fidelity are pumping out PR about selling 500 ETFs without fees, while Vanguard offers about 1800 ETFs without TFs.
  • This Investor’s Secret To Beating The Street? Pick Stocks That Are Fortresses: (PSGAX)
    5.75% load, too. I know what the responses will be: zero load at brokerages X,Y,Z. Screw that. I invest directly with the fund houses. And I won't pay for the privilege of giving them my money, before it's even invested.
  • S&P 500? More Like The S&P 50
    My blended ER is less than 70 bps. I run everything independently via Fidelity. The core of my portfolio passive equity exposure as it's my belief that active manager add little value in most market segment.

    @JoJo26, well done with your overall ER with other advisor fees! Over time, these fees really add up quickly. There are more ETFs and actively managed ETFs with NO trading commission at large brokerages (Fidelity and Schwab) available today. Vanguard is working hard to catch up in this offering.
    I would also note that I will never pay a load as this dig a deep hole to recover from. Most active managers fail to outperform after their regular fees. Imagine starting in the hole 5%.
    I may pay some commissions on ETFs, but that's rare and deminimis. Today, all of my ETF exposure is via ETFs that I've purchased commission-free.
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    Thanks very much for sharing yourr thought processes on this @Old_Skeet. Very helpful to me in thinking about the market. Do your inputs focus on the S&P 500 exclusively? Do you look at international at all?
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    Thank you @Old_Skeet for drilling down more into your methodology. Your definition of overbought largely coincides with that of Investopedia - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asp. While valuation is mentioned by both of you, it appears to be a largely inferential determination based on recent market price behavior: ie: S&P falls 12% over 2 months and becomes oversold. Than it rises 10% over 2 months and becomes overbought. Inferentially one might conclude that the underlying assets had greater intrinsic value when the market was depressed than after it became elevated. That sounds to me very much like a technical indicator based largely on recent market price trend lines.
    I’ll agree that’s one good way to describe near-term conditions and to time one’s entry and exit points if one is a market trader. But it doesn’t help much with understanding valuations over longer periods (5, 10, 20 years). You said: “... markets can stay overbought and oversold for extended periods of time.” That may possibly be. However, if it were really the case there would seldom be a need to change the barometer from oversold to overbought within a few weeks’ or months’ time. So I’d modify that statement to read: “... markets can stay overvalued and undervalued for extended periods of time“.
    What’s the difference? Valuations are based on the intrinsic worth of the individual companies within the index. While complex, that involves appraising different attributes like: underlying assets, debt levels, bond ratings, profit margins, P/E ratios, pending litigation, competitive market advantages and long term growth prospects. In a nutshell: Valuation is much harder to measure than a temporary overbought or oversold condition based largely on a 3-6 month chart.
    Warren Buffet was on CNBC this morning and so is on my mind. I do feel his successful methodology leans very heavily towards the “valuation” end of the spectrum and much less so towards temporary technical overbought / underbought nomenclatures.
    There are many successful ways to invest. Thanks for your insights into your barometer and how you apply it.
  • This Investor’s Secret To Beating The Street? Pick Stocks That Are Fortresses: (PSGAX)
    FYI: The headquarters for some of the best-performing and fastest-growing stock funds on the planet is a building on Avenue of the Stars in Beverly Hills. Glamour stocks? Far from it. The money managers at Kayne Anderson Rudnick prefer companies selling lawn fertilizer, swimming pool chemicals and the software used by small banks.
    Look at the results. The firm’s hottest fund, Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth, has averaged a 19.4% annual return over the past decade, to 14.7% for the S&P 500. Virtus KAR Small-Cap Core delivered 15.9%. These numbers are after stiff fees, over 2% a year on the no-load C class shares.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2019/02/19/this-investors-secret-to-beating-the-street-pick-stocks-that-are-fortresses/#5b9a06751927
    M* Snapshot PSGAX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psgax/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PSGAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/psgax
    PSGAX Ranks #3 In The (SCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/small-growth/virtus-kar-small-cap-growth-fund/psgax
    M* Virtus Family Of Funds:
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/virtus/0C00001YUH/fund-list.aspx
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    Hi @hank: Thank you for your inquiry about Old_Skeet's investment mythology.
    Here is the defination of overbought. The term a stock is "overbought" when the stock reaches a point in trading where technical indicators suggest the next price move of the stock will be down. When a stock's price has risen too far, too fast and it is beginning to look expensive to investors, it is overbought.
    While I'm not an analyst and just a retail investor much like others on the board I have been working on someting to measures market value. Through my fifty plus years of investing I developed my barometer to aid me in determining better times to add new money to my portfolio. This lead me to develope a market barometer to help measue value in the S&P 500 Index. With this, I came up with three main feeds in my barometer plus some minor feeds. The barometer's three main feeds are a breadth feed, an earnings feed and a technical score feed. These three feeds are scaled and when combined produce a barometric number. The barometric number is then scaled into extremely overbought, overbought, overvalued, fair value, undervalued, oversold, and extremely oversold scalings. When looking for direction I often use the minor feeds to help determine this. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. At the first of the year the barometer had a reading of 183 which based upon the barometer metrics indicated the Index was extemely oversold. Presently, the barometer reading of 133 indicates that the Index is extremely overbought. So, in two months the Index has moved from extremely oversold to extremely overbought. Remember, at the end of last year many hedge funds were closing and sold into a vaccum on Christmas Eve. This selling pressure drove stock prices extremely low. Also, the FOMC had been on an interest rate increase campaign plus a number of other market distractors were taking place as well. This selling pressure created an extremely oversold market. As we have now progressed into the new year there has been good investor interest in stocks and their prices have been driven upward through some furrious buying to the point that they are now reaching a buying climax and by the metrics of the barometer become extremely overbought.
    As you know (or should know) markets can stay overbought and oversold for extended periods of time. However, for the past couple of weeks I have detected a softening in the money flow. This means, to me, investors have been booking some profit. In addition, there seems to be a good number of companies recently reporting a decline in their earnings and anticipated revenue growth. Will it be enough for the Index to pull back? Perhaps. So, unless there is some news event that would entergize the market and encourage investors to pay up even more for stocks I'm following the barometer reading and looking for a nearterm pullback.
    Just because I'm looking for a pullback does not mean that it will take place. But, until I see some higher barometer readings (indicating there is more investment value in the Index) I'm not putting any new money to work at this time. And, since I have no open special investment positions (spiffs) I'm not selling at this time either as the barometer generally drives my purchase and selling of spiffs. If I had any spiffs in play I'd have already closed them.
    I hope this helps you have a better understanding of Old_Skeet's investment mythology because my market barometer has help me have a better understaning of stock market movements. With this, I'm posting this for information purposes only. It is not meant (or should not be taken) as investment advice.
  • MFAIX -- anyone kicked the tires?
    I've about 1/3 of equity invested abroad.
    For those who hold that markets are efficient (you can't beat the market), I've got too little in foreign stock, which represents only 57% of the world equity market.
    For those who hold that multinational companies are all the same regardless of where based, I've got too much overseas.
    I'm currently taking a course in comparative political economy. Our reading for this week, An Introduction to Varieties of Capitalism presents significantly different models of capitalism based on the interplay between national politics and the ways companies in different countries cooperate/compete/operate.
    While it concedes that there is some movement toward convergence under globalization, it argues that there is still significant variation from country to country. The implication for our purposes is that multinationals are not all the same.
    So, splitting the difference (with justification) between 0% and 57%. 1/3 seems like a reasonable allocation.
  • Here is what worked best ... this week ... within my portfolio.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 133 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely overbought based upon the metrics of the barometer.
    Thanks @Old_Skeet for your discussion of how you are positioned.
    - I’m curious what you believe an “overbought” reading for the S&P implies for whatever action(s) one should take? I realize you are not offering investment advice, but it still leaves open the question of what an overbought reading might suggest the investor should do? Some obvious choices are: (1) Ignore the overbought reading and stay put, (2) move some or all of the overbought asset to cash, (3) move some or all of that overbought asset into a different asset - perhaps one having a reading of “underbought”.
    - Are your metrics based primarily on valuations or on technicals? Perhaps a 50/50 slice of each?
    - While it might be discouraging to be buying into an overbought market, a really long time horizon helps. Had you poured all your $$ into the S&P when it was arguably overbought in the 1997-98 period, I believe you would still be very happy with your return today, some 20 years later. :)
    Appreciate any thoughts.