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Maybe these strategists know something that the other strategists in the past 5 - 7 years didn't.... The brilliant Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has had outsized positions in international / emerging markets for the last 7 years and they haven't budged. …
Oil service stocks have had statistically significant positive outcomes in the winter and biotech in the fall. A sector model that I use, utilizes oil services, biotech, and utilities combined with a risk management heuristic. It has produced decent…
The small cap value universe has been proven academically and empirically to produce alpha premium above the other stock universes over a 90 year period.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgDwJKPJI/edit?usp=shari…
Depends on your age. One of the best moves that an investor in the "young" demographic of the investment "lifecycle" ( age 20 - 50 ) can make for the long term, is to build a core position in small cap value universe. Academic and empirical evidence…
OUSA is also a recent, promising choice if you're into that particular stock "universe" oshares.com/news/shark-tanks-kevin-oleary-launches-an-etf-ousa/
Investors have to take charge and be their own smart beta managers. Just using a simple empirically based moving average switch strategy on an index and a bond fund has produced risk mitigated alpha above buy and hold.
https://docs.google.com/docum…
With the lack and disappearance of "steady" job prospects, ( compared to the boomer generation ) innovation in alpha producing investments, and lack of planning help available to young investor, they will have to be more DYI going forward. Robo advi…
Using quantitative modeling and heuristic set, within the "3" sector switch portfolio *, energy services ** has shown it's best performance in the winter / spring months over a robust 30 year sample. During high risk years https://docs.google.com/do…
Just as stocks have outperformed bonds over 90 years, the small cap value universe has been the stock universe that has produced the highest alpha premium ( shown academically https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgD…
90 years of academic research shows outperformance of small cap value vs. all other stock universes https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kToqLWLISRk4n4YnSzv1hT5kBN54l5CvhwGgDwJKPJI/edit?usp=sharing. Money may have been flowing into large mega cap gro…
My father subscribed to Bob Brinker for awhile in 2000's. Brinker held onto a position in MSFT and a bond fund ( I think) for quite a long while . He also had an "out of character" trade, sending out a special bulletin recommendation for QQQQ in 200…
As in past history of investment products that can't go wrong, I have a feeling that the fool proof diversification models used by the Robo models will be surprised by the close correlation of the decline in world markets ( including the U.S. market…
Small cap value is a misunderstood stock universe and many investors shy away from it in favor of popular large cap universe or / 60 / 40 balanced fund affairs.
Swedroe's work is important as it presents returns data via evidence based vs. anecdota…
"Discrete" variables that are referenced in commentary, variables such as Jan Barometer, Sell in May, X mas rally, Super Bowl Indicator, election year anomaly, etc., are difficult to legitimize in use towards asset allocation decision making.
The…
The trouble with Saut ( and with many other commentators ) is that he never presents / breaks down his process into clear, Boolean logic ... Not sure if it's the position that he holds ( a popular, salaried figure head with a well spoken manner, pr…
The problem is that when this type of isolated analysis is presented, there's no rules based, empirically tested tactical allocation process presented to be objectively compared against.
A simple 10 month moving average cross with a bond allocation…
The Map tactical model indicated equity allocation on Dec 31 ( I invested in QQQ ). It will indicate a "high" risk profile" year / cash position on Feb 1 ( unless the SP rallies 12% this week ). https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/12/31/marke…
Here's some excerpts of Zulafs commentary in Jan 2015:
2015
Zulauf: The oil-price slump will hurt the economy dramatically in terms of capital spending and employment, and a lot of oilfield jobs are high-paying jobs. Yes, lower oil prices will brin…
Not really "changing" anything. Just sticking with what has worked for decades.
Allocation into QQQ 12/31/2015 as per variable #1 from model https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/12/31/market-map-model-allocates-to-equity-etf/ ( 2015 return…
Working link for Biotech model mentioned previously : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit#gid=113856734
Allocation into QQQ yesterday as per variable #1 from model https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/12/31/market-map-model-allocates-to-equity-etf/( 2015 return = "underperforming" year ( cash allocation ) after 2013, 2014 were "overperforming yea…
Yet short term aside, within the context of 10 year performance strings ( over 90 years ) of a disciplined tactical allocation approach, "flat" years where "nothing works" are occasionally present and part of the process. Sometimes we have to "sit o…
Will be interesting to see what the upcoming employement reports will contain .. Crudele here :nypost.com/2015/12/09/buckle-up-for-the-rate-hike-roller-coaster-ride/
The problem with a "gauge" type measurement of this sort, is that: 1) It is difficult to generate alpha across long sample sizes from a discrete indicator ( such as it is through the use of a basic long length moving average of price vs. crossing he…
Best to ground your tactical decisions in a sound strategy vs. intuition or analyst' opinion
Sounds like small cap and S&P are available option in the menu. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/…
Using a simple rule set and 10 mo simple moving average ( monthly basis ) applied to the Nikkei index and Japan Govt bonds, the investment returns over the last 2.5 lost decades of the Japan experience could have been improved and risk mitigated ht…
You don't have to regret not owning AAPL. Instead of owning a single growth leader, concentrate on the QQQ. It represents 100 of some of the best growth stock leaders. It has low expenses, and, over the years, the managers have done a stellar job of…
As per asset allocation model, we sold QQQ and allocated to cash equivalents on Jan 19, as component #3 indicated 2015 to be a "high" risk profile year (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1109542-market-map/3658876-market-map-model-allocates-to-cash)…
With collapsing oil, European and Asian economies in a rut, these may be the first true deflationary times since the Great Depression. Not sure what it means for the equity markets or, with negative rates, where one hides their money if following…
We'll be looking towards component 3 of our mutli variable tactical model in the 3rd week of Jan. in order to determine if we go to cash, or stay in index etf ( QQQ ) till the 1st week of July. Component 1 + 2 have signalled "over"performance vs. t…
We want the highest confidence statistical outcomes via a large data sample on our side as we can have so as to develop a "gist" of what the year will look like historically and have emotional preparedness, if necessary.
Component 3 of our mode…
The term "investor" tends to be used too broadly in investment product contexts yet, being that a majority of middle age workers are underfunded in their retirement plans, a 7% return from these products won't get these "investors" very far in accum…
We still hold mid - large growth via QQQ http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/
We still hold small cap value (VBR) https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit#slide=id.g37353308c_00
The next allocatio…
Looking at it through long range empirical testing, unless the market disintegrates tomorrow below last weeks close ( SP 1886 ), then we are set up for the 19th Intermediate term positional trade, within the context of a "neutral" risk profile year,…
Neutral "risk profile" years ( 2014 being one) have tended to be flat to slightly positive in aggregate. http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/10/10/market-map-model-1-risk-profiles/
The statistical strength of a 4th qtr. rally unfolding would s…
On Monday, we will allocate from 75% fixed income
( http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2014/07/ ) into equity: 25% Mid sized growth (QQQ), 12.5% Small Cap value (VBR), and 12.5% Emerging market value.
The 20 yr. compound growth rate for the mode…