Anyone know any economist who's put out a convincing model of what a Trump presidency means for the markets, not just today, but for the next four years? Here are a few rapid thoughts, but I'm not an expert, I'd love to hear from or see a link to someone who's already thought hard about this:
1. More trade conflicts: bad for all markets
2. Giant tax cuts = bigger deficits = more inflation + short-term growth: good for stock markets at least for a year or two, bad for Treasuries
3. Greater geopolitical uncertainty: bad for stock markets, good for Swiss Franc, German govt bonds, gold, etc.
4. Unified Congress + Presidency = better chance of a swift policy response when the next crisis comes: good for all markets.
I'm trying to stick just to the market impact, based on his stated positions, and keep out my personal opinion on these policies.
Comments
Tonight, I might go 100% in cash in my retirement accounts. WTF cares what individual stocks/securities are doing?
I wouldn't make any drastic moves based on a emotional response to the election results. Some fine tuning of the fund portfolio might be profitable if you hit the right funds. It's wait and see time.
Another election and another peaceful transfer of leadership is anticipated. I sure hope Trump has the requisite leadership,skill set. The most likely answer is a firm "yes" based on his success in the rough and tumble business world..
Leadership must endure many challenges. An understanding of leadership traits have been recognized over time. They include factors such as commitment, a vision, communication skills, dedication to duty, team building proficiency, listening to others, and the ability to integrate a diversity of opinions. Trump has demonstrated most of these necessary characteristics.
"Judgment comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgments." Mistaken judgments happen. That deep thought comes from General of the Army Omar N. Bradley. I extracted it from the US Army Field Manuel on leadership. That Manuel is a great guide to leadership demands and execution principles. Here is a Link that allows a free download of it:
http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/Repository/Materials/fm6-22.pdf
It's an easy read that is filled with examples, stories, and meaningful quotes. Please give it a try. It just might help your investment decision making.
For years I have purchased and distributed copies of the referenced Army Leadership Manuel to young members of my family. I believe it helps their maturing process. It might also be a not bad investment in reading time for us older investing types.
Best Regards.
The DIY design entails the purchase of a 3 blend universe of small cap value, emerging small cap, and large value on Nov 1 and then switched for utilities sector ( or bonds / cash ( when risk algorithm signals "high risk" year in February )) on May 1 of the next year and switch back to 3 blend on Nov 1.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tvKoFaFCQhbO5gQSld7i8TMPw_ZTXB1-AA_9velX_tM/edit#gid=102066566
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tvKoFaFCQhbO5gQSld7i8TMPw_ZTXB1-AA_9velX_tM/edit#gid=1235486791
Uncertainty about what the future holds for investment returns under X political climate / elected official scenario may be alleviated by viewing forward 5 and 15 year total returns over the past 14 election years utilizing this process https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tvKoFaFCQhbO5gQSld7i8TMPw_ZTXB1-AA_9velX_tM/edit#gid=1245955002
These asset class exposures all available through exchange traded funds