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  • I remember when the Peak Oil Theory was being propagated and everybody said "This time it is different" and "We will never see oil below $100 again". There is still a glut of oil and oil reserves are high. I jumped off the oil train, but I am waiting for another opportunity.
  • Probably not going to lose money w REXX, which is so depressed.
  • Jumped on with a play on SLB about a year and a half ago. Just about even now.
  • edited July 2016
    You're 5 months late John. The time to load up on energy-heavy funds was in February when oil bottomed around $26. By my crude calculation it's now up about 70% from those lows. As I wrote on May 3: "I suspect the big gains in NR & energy are over for the year, but remain optimistic for PRNEX (and natural resources in general) looking out two or three years." http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/77459/#Comment_77459

    On that day (May 3) oil closed around $43-44 and PRNEX (the fund mentioned in the post) was sitting at about $32. That's about where both are today. So neither has moved much. In the intervening months since that post, oil touched $50 and PRNEX approached $35. I sold another 25% of PRNEX at the higher prices, so now have only a small position.

    Energy analysts are divided of course, but there seems to be some consensus that oil will be in the $60 range in a couple years. Unfortunately, a 2-year time horizon seems very long for some. So John, you'll probably get paid to wait - but your gains will come in drips and drabs.

  • edited July 2016
    I strive to maintain at least a five percent weighting in the minority sectors (materials, real estate, communication services and utilities) and at least a nine percent weighting in the majority sectors (consumer cyclical, financial services, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive & healthcare) within my portfolio. Since, I am at about a nine percent weighting in energy and energy now accounts for about a seven percent weighting in the S&P 500 Index this puts me at about a +2% overweight in the sector as compared to the Index and in a neutral position within my portfolio according to my allocation weightings. This leaves me with about seventeen percent that can be move around and overweight accordingly as to how I wish to allocate sector weighting within my portfolio.
  • Never been off. I continue to hold COP and NOV.
  • TedTed
    edited July 2016
    @ron & MFO Members: It appears the oil patch is headed for if not a train wreck, at least a derailment, as WTI crude heads towards under $40.
    Regards,
    Ted

    Oil Futures:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clu6

    $35 Crude:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-key-factor-pushing-oil-prices-toward-35-a-barrel-2016-07-27/print
  • Waiting for oil to hit $37 a barrel then will start buying. Looking
    at RDSB at over 7% dividend, FENY for diversity and EPD. Recently
    bought KMIPRA convertible for high yield.
  • Still early to another entry point. Been trading VDE several times this year for modest gain. Slow global growth is a concern. Exxon Mobil reported poor earning this morning, down over 40% from same period of a year ago.
  • Quite happy with GASFX in the energy sector:

    Returns: 1/3/5/10 yrs:
    +9.87% +11.80% +12.91% +10.58%

    YTD:
    23%
  • @MFO Members: After briefly touching bear market territory earlier in the session, crude oil prices have caught a bounce intraday, taking WTI out of bear market territory (20% decline from closing high of $51.23). Despite the bounce, though, crude oil is still down 19.5% from its 2016 high, so it’s still very close to entering a new bear.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Crude Catches A Bounce Out Of Bear Territory:
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/crude-catches-a-bounce-out-of-bear-territory/
  • Since 1986, energy as part of a simple, seasonal three sector switching strategy has had it's best statistical profitability in the winter / spring months. 2016 was exceptional .

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NrMJ1hs2zhLrXc-WgjdbA_0uf0KUPzvKdgKUJZvyFCM/edit?usp=sharing
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