i'm wondering if now isn't a great time to buy junk bonds that are not short-duration? they've been severely whacked down low. TUHYX is yielding over 7% but the share price is in the toilet. still, junk bonds tend to do well when equities do, right? Over the past couple of days, TUHYX has had a lovely small-ish bump-up. You did well, protecting your money at that River Park fund.
So, how much more do you need to preserve, as opposed to growing your portfolio? Changing conditions will require that we all respond. Buy & Hold is dead. I'm 25% in bonds, earning dividends I don't yet need, thankfully. The fact I do not need the monthly divs is a reflection of the fact that I can AFFORD to keep a big slug in equities, where it can grow.
When I can find a CD for 5% or more, then I'll bite. My T-IRA year-end amalgamated estimated divs and cap gains are over 4%, and this has been a bad year. i won't complain. Markets WILL rebound at some point, and I certainly don't want to cut myself off at the knees from the prospect of any outsized profits by stashing too much in bond funds or treasuries. Or bank accounts. I've been much more fortunate in the brokerage account this year, compared to last year. Still a few hundred dollars to get me back to even-steven, there.
those other instruments with the FDIC insurance or full faith and credit of the US gov't might serve you better than I judge they would me.

Hi @yogibearbull
I can try that, too. I've not had a problem loading "Permalink" before with the chart I posted. Something wasn't happy with my pc or their system at the time. I wanted to show the extreme swings from the Covid spring 2020 until now.
Thank you.

@Sven et al
This chart is TBT (bond bear, yields going higher etf) vs TMF (bond bull, yields going lower etf). For whatever reason, the chart will not allow me to set the dates I want to use.
So, at the chart bottom where the number of chart days is shown (253 days)....double click the days and then type in 723 and then ENTER. This will take the chart to the beginning of 2020 and just before the melt in the early spring of 2020.
You'll be able to readily view when the FED had to unload on rates to stop the Covid market melt and the action of TMF. In the shorter term not shown by this chart, those who were/are immaculate traders have been able to provide large profits with trading only between TMF and TBT.

Hi @Sven et al
The current % data is two weeks after the first data reported in the October 24- October 28 period of this thread. As the current large price percent gains are likely mostly reflected from a more favorable CPI report (FED backing off???), which caused yields to move down a lot within a short time frame.
Yield % changes last week:
--- 30 year = -6.5%
--- 10 year = -7.3%
--- 5 year = -7.5%
--- 1 year = -3.3%
SO, for me; I would/will watch price changes in the Gov't issues in the list; if it was understood/known/announced that the FED was slowing down rate increases.
AND looking at the moves from last week, the top gainers were the longer duration issues.....10 years +. And if one has some sleepy money laying about, you could take a walk on the wild side and go for TMF. This etf will fly high.......although for how long would not be known and the investment would need to be carefully watched.
Remain curious,
Catch

Mairs & Power
https://www.mairsandpower.com/about-us/company-news/item/163-estimated-2022-capital-gains-and-dividends

Yep, and now I see 3 yr non-callable from Capital One at 4.9%. So, its coming back.
Note: it sold out quickly.

Another follow up,
https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-losses-reduce-capital-gains-tax-51668037376?mod=past_editions
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
TAX STRATEGIES. Use tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year for benefits in future years. Tax-loss CARRYFORWARDS don’t expire and can be used to offset future gains and up to $3,000/yr in ordinary income from net losses. Beware of WASH-SALE rule (to avoid +/- 30 day window for transactions). Use DOUBLE-UP strategy (buy to double position by November 29, sell the older lot on December 30, the last trading day of 2022), OR swap with something SIMILAR but not identical right away (easily possible with so many OEFs and ETFs). REINVESTING may cause small disallowances due to wash-sale, but they don’t spoil the entire TLH; one can also discontinue reinvestments to avoid this issue. With large declines in both stocks and bonds, consider TLH for all types of funds (stocks, bonds, hybrids). If you have losses in CRYPTOS, note that wash-sale rules don’t apply (but the IRS may not like immediate buys/sells). OTHER strategies: Delay/SHIFT income to lower tax years; use annual GIFTS of up to $16K/yr/person (2022), $17K/yr/person (2023) to avoid filing the Form 709 (complicated, but also doable); ROTH CONVERSIONS (immediate tax hit, but withdrawals are tax-free in retirement and no RMDs); CHARITABLE contributions.

It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different feel as bonds seem to have bottomed (peak in rates) too. It also has a different feel in how it has reacted to all the negative earnings recently from the tech giants. I also find it hard to believe the market won’t bottom until the Fed pivots as that seems to be the consensus view. Universally held by almost everyone.
A good trader has to play every rally as THE rally even though there has been so many false rallies this year. Much akin to 2008. This may be nothing more than the impressive fake out rally in July/ early August. Regardless we have three major catalysts on the horizon that could answer if this time the bottom is really in. Next week’s Fed meeting/comments, next week’s October employment report, and maybe the real biggie, the election results week after next.

That out of the ordinary momentum day as well as Dow double bottom on October 13 looking more and more like something more than another bear market rally. Dow up almost 16% in less than a month. Thursday could be pivotal especially if there is a larger than expected decline in inflation. Then there will be talk about a Fed pivot/pause. If it is the opposite and yet another bad inflation report will be interesting how the market reacts to the bad news over the ensuing days. Lately bad news hasn’t been able to bring it down.
Edit: Can’t say the action in junk bonds has been very encouraging since the 10/13 bottom. Positive yet very muted gains. A bond person would be just as well off in the less volatile floating rate funds. Then again, does it really matter? All the old time traders from days gone by, many frail and feeble now seem to be enjoying camping out in money market funds and earning a six digit income.

Hello, my name is Brian and I was also scammed by TBO Capital. Could I have access to the private board? Thank you

Instead of being selective for TLH, it is better to maximize TLH and not let the opportunity slip by. Yes, some of the losses would be used up from gains in those (and other) positions when markets rebound. In some cases, different things may have better rebound potential (elevator-down may be different than elevator-up). Bottomline is that with TLH at max, the taxable a/c become tax-free account for many years to come.

OPTIONS. NOVEMBER 29 (Tuesday) is the last day this year to DOUBLE-UP for tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year. The doubling up can be by buying a fallen stock or cheaper options by 11/29/22 and then selling the older lot(s) by DECEMBER 30 (Friday), the last trading day of this year. AXP is used as an example. (Alternate is to immediately swap into something similar but not identical) (Tax-losses for individuals don’t expire and can be carried forward for years to offset future gains and up to $3K/yr in ordinary income)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tax-loss-stocks-options-51667426293?mod=past_editions
LINK1
REVIEW. Wash sale rules don’t apply to CRYPTOS (as they are considered property). Rules may be changed by the Congress in future. (Note – Wash sale disallows loss if a security or its options are traded within +/- 30 days)
ROTH CONVERSIONS are attractive tax-wise when the markets are down; taxes on conversions should be paid from taxable funds. Other benefits of Roth IRAs include no RMDs; TAX-FREE withdrawals in retirement (some limitations apply); tax benefits carry over to INHERITED Roth IRAs but now, most non-spouses must drain the Roth IRA within 10 years (spouses can retitle as their own). Seniors beware of Medicare IRMAA in conversion planning. This is by @LewisBraham.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/roth-ira-conversions-tax-move-51667342555?mod=past_editions
LINK2

TUHUX ranked on top quartile in 2019 and 2020, but it ranked in the bottom quartile this year! Being ranked 95% among HY category may help a bit. As of 11/4/22, YTD return of BND is down -16.1% and TUHYX is down -16.7% (and that is too much for me).

Hello, everyone and thanks for the replies. I see a discrepancy, and this is my point: the chart shows a bad year in '22, yes. But at the same time, the chart shows the fund TUHYX to be (slightly) outperforming its Index and peers. WTF?

TUHUX ranked on top quartile in 2019 and 2020, but it ranked in the bottom quartile this year! Being ranked 95% among HY category may help a bit. As of 11/4/22, YTD return of BND is down -16.1% and TUHYX is down -16.7% (and that is too much for me).

"The sharp rise in interest rates and the widely expected resultant recession may also be the 'zombie killer' that finally forces a wave of restructurings among companies reliant on accommodative capital markets to provide cash infusions to cover interest expense. That said, as a result of the dislocation that has already occurred, there are a lot of quality companies with 'money good' debt yielding 7.5-11.5% with maturities in the 1-3-year sweet spot."
With regard to Short-Term High Income, "As of September 30, 2022, the portfolio was comprised of securities with an average maturity of 4.17 months ... the Weighted Average Market Yield to Effective Maturity was 8.09% for Effective Maturities of 31 days or more. That comprised 64% of the invested Portfolio."
Seems hopeful. (More hopeful if I could keep the various yield calculations straight.)

Thanks for the kind words. I think the guys did some exceptional work. Devesh's story struck me as timely, well-researched and important.
I've received two or three requests to write about particular funds in the month ahead, including Frank Value and Schwartz Value. I'm spend some time seeing what the guys are up to.
CNBC asked me about the success of a particular fund in 2022. I think the best answer might have been to send them the Visual Capitalist moving graphic on S&P500 sector performance. The same chart answers the question, "why has my ESG lagged so badly?"
Uhhh ... "Exxon." The lifting price of oil in the US (the out-of-the-ground price) is in the neighborhood of $30/barrel. If the price of oil at auction is $40, they make $10/barrel. If it's $100 (around the current price), they make $70/barrel without any additional cost or effort to them. That's reflected in the $7 billion/month profit in Q# 2022.
The Saudis pay something in the $2-5/barrel range.
My answer to them was "own oil, make huge gains this year ... which tells you precisely nothing about next year." Exxon's 10-year returns exactly match RiverPark Short-Term High Yield's: 2.6%.

THIS IS NOT OUR TBO CAPITAL, BUT THEIR PRECURSOR, A REAL ESTATE GROUP

Majority of bond funds are down 15%, and the Fed is far from done with raising rate. This also spills over into traditional balanced funds and they sustained double digit loss.
Bank loan funds have the least amount of loss, -3% YTD. That is helping PRWCX, but Giroux now invest 10% in treasury. I considered that is a defensive move. During March 2020 pandemic, bank loan funds fell too until Powell cut rate to near zero. They bounced back ok. During stress time, things can fall at the same time. CDs and short term treasuries held up ok but they paid little at that time.
Right now, buying CD and treasury ladders is unlikely to loss like typical bond funds today, while you can get a respectable return with 4-5% yield.

Fido is offering a 5.50% 15 year (Callable) CD - Jonesboro State Bank.
The highest Non-callable CD Fido offers at the moment is 5.0% from Capital One. Its a 5 yr CD.
Note: These are New issue only, not secondary market CD offerings.

From M*:
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1122484/which-popular-mutual-funds-will-hit-investors-with-losses-and-capital-gains-distributions-this-year

And now for a potential China "bull case"...
The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.