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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morgan Stanley Global Opportunity Portfolio to close to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465920100504/a20-27131_3497.htm
    497 1 a20-27131_3497.htm 497
    Prospectus and Summary
    Prospectus Supplement
    August 31, 2020
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated August 31, 2020 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2020, as amended May 11, 2020
    Global Opportunity Portfolio (the "Portfolio")
    Effective at the close of business on December 31, 2020, the Portfolio will suspend offering Class I, Class A, Class C, Class IR and Class IS shares of the Portfolio to new investors, except as follows. The Portfolio will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C, Class IR and Class IS shares of the Portfolio: (1) through certain retirement plan accounts, (2) to clients of certain registered investment advisors who currently offer shares of the Portfolio in their asset allocation programs, (3) to directors and trustees of the Morgan Stanley Funds, (4) to Morgan Stanley affiliates and their employees and (5) to benefit plans sponsored by Morgan Stanley and its affiliates. The Portfolio will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C, Class IR and Class IS shares of the Portfolio to existing shareholders. The Portfolio may recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C, Class IR and Class IS shares of the Portfolio to new investors in the future. Any such offerings of the Portfolio's Class I, Class A, Class C, Class IR and Class IS shares may be limited in amount and may commence and terminate without any prior notice.
    The Portfolio has suspended offering Class L shares to all investors. Class L shareholders of the Portfolio do not have the option of purchasing additional Class L shares. However, existing Class L shareholders may invest in additional Class L shares through reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    IFIGOPSUMPROSPT 8/20
  • Recent required Vanguard transition
    Wellstrade has one of the highest closeout fee around, $95. So it's a good thing that Firstrade covers those fees up to $200. I got so fed up with Wellstrade that, free trades and all, I left them years ago.
    Remember Scottrade? Or before that Scudder Retirement Plus? Like Wellstrade, for a number of years they let you trade all funds without fees. I expect Firstrade to drop this feature also at some point, though that could be a decade or more off.
    OTOH, I expect Vanguard Flagship level ($1M+) to keep free mutual fund trades around indefinitely. Vanguard has deeper pockets and its program is different. To qualify, customers must invest a large amount of money in Vanguard funds. That gives Vanguard a revenue stream that Firstrade doesn't get when you invest through them in third party funds.
    Vanguard has not only maintained this perk, but has increased its value over time. Originally you received 8 free trades per year, counting not only TF fund trades but equity trades. Vanguard raised the number to 25. Then early this year it eliminated commissions on equity trades, ensuring that all 25 free trades were applied to your TF fund transactions.
    There's a lot I'll criticize Vanguard for, and I have, but investing in funds (not stocks, not ETFs) on its brokerage platform is not one of them. The platform is bare bones, but simple to use for this basic task. Now if you want to talk customer service, trading tools, etc., that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.
  • nibbling away
    @Simon @WABAC I'm not COMPLETELY in bonds (for protection) only because of the Fed stimulus. It does matter just what is driving markets, whether up or down. Central Banks have come to the rescue--- AGAIN. @rono likes to say: "This will not end well." I agree. In the meantime, this is still the only game in town. The next item that I'm required by law to do is to begin taking RMDs at age 72. (Yes, the change, due to covid distress. ) In January, I pulled out a pre-determined chunk at a pre-determined time. Almost all my stuff is in Trad IRAs. I was lucky. We were at or near a Market-top back then. Since then, Mr. Market has been kind--- thanks to The Fed. When the punchbowl gets pulled, I might just move from 57% bonds to 80% bonds. The payouts from my bond funds are tasty, right on schedule, too. I've learned not to boast about portfolio results. I'll just be paying attention. Chugging along. My portf. is comprised of my best fund choices, up to the present. I sleep well.
    Anyone at, or close to RMD's is in a different situation than Simon, our young accumulator.
    I had re-balanced the IRA last December - January so that I was close to 60-40 stocks/bonds, not counting cash. I'm back to 70-30 on the Biden rally and purchases made in March. And I think I'll let it ride. I still have a little nubbin of cash if there is another serious downdraft.
    Bernard Baruch is supposed to have said that he made all his money selling too soon. Disciplined selling is one sure way to have cash on hand for those buying opportunities.
    I sort of regret selling NASDX to put into really boring stuff. But that's the sort of calculus to make with retirement funds if you're going to need them sooner than later.
  • nibbling away
    So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?
    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.
    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?
    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.
    I haven't sold anything since rebalancing in January. That put me in a position to buy in March.
    Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if we were all humble, listened to others, and learned from our mistakes?
    Now. Where do you think the market would be if The Fed had not injected trillions of dollars into it?
    What you call a bull market looks like a speed freak to me. Now is the time to think about selling.
  • nibbling away
    So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?
    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.
    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?
    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.
  • Any great spec ideas?
    I am in the same boat, although just retired so very wary about starting retirement with a 30% loss if things go south. I am widely diversified but have only about 20 to 25% in equities; mostly cash.
    It will not take much inflation to crater all but the shortest bond funds, and there is very little difference in the yield as duration goes up. That would imply shorting junk bonds which you can do with ETFs
    The dollar has dropped significantly so will probably rebound soon but unless the US gets it's house in order I think it will continue down, making the case for some Gold and Commodities.
    I think some EM are doing far better than we are with Covid, but their economies are so linked to ours you need to know more than I do to pick winners. China clearly seems to have controlled Covid but I do not trust their accounting and think there still may be real danger of a major debt induced crash there.
    Much of the current reports out of major brokerages recommend hedges and puts, strategies which I have yet to figure out but there are ETFs that have done a pretty good job with them like TAIL
    You could also play the Covid recovery with JETS and other ETFs or funds loaded with aerospace, cruise lines restaurants and hotels. Eventually things will get back to normal and there will be a huge pop when there is a successful vaccine announcement although it will be years before it controls covid,, I think
  • Things that make you go "hmmmm"

    If I make a surprising 25-50% on a stock in 2-3 months, especially if it was not expected given my own view of the markets and the underlying item(s) in question, I consider that worthy of locking in the gains. And no, this is all in taxable. My 403(b) is on autopilot and 100% invested in a single American Fund (RWMGX).
    @rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
    And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
    As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Things that make you go "hmmmm"
    @rforno : What do you consider insanely high STCG profits. Best I could come up with during recent fall - rise was 12% profit. But if one put money to work on the lowest drop day for market , I'd guess profit would be another 3% to 4% profit.
    And if you sold , I'm guessing it was in retirement account ?
    As for me ,dry powder went both ways , so no sales so far.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • The Struggles of a 60/40 Portfolio for Pensions and Individual Investors
    For domestic stock funds: David Giroux of PRWCX. Don't have one for international funds due to lack of consistency.
    BTW, CalPERS has not been effective in managing their retirement fund for a number of years comparing to David Swanson of Yale University. Swanson uses sizable private equities and alternative strategies in additional the broader index funds. Other institutions including Harvard tried to replicate Yale's approach but none was nearly as successful.
  • Cramer: all sound and fury

    I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
    Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
    Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
    What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
    My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.
    You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.
    Equally likely are an alternative set of scenarios.
    - A very long multi-year (even multi-decade) “rolling” decline to normal valuations with alternating good and bad years. Patient investors can still make money in such an environment - but would require more insight and ingenuity than simply buying the index.
    - A rotational correction where the big overvalued names fall while the undervalued equity sectors gain. Financials have lagged. And while one might think the energy, commodity, natural resource sectors overvalued after a recent surge, truth be told those areas are just emerging from the worst decade long bear market in history.
    - Correction by stagnation. Equities essentially go nowhere for a decade or longer while the dollar sags, global interest rates rise, and the CPI , real assets, real estate climb in value. Even without a sharp decline, equities would have returned to more normal valuations relative to the dollar and other asset classes over a decade or so.
    - Black swans. War, domestic upheaval, shifts in the global balance of power, plagues, environmental catastrophe can all upend an economy and jolt markets leading to different end results than anyone anticipated.
    .
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys.
    Politics aside.
    My perspective (and thinking) on the stock market follow.
    A little more on the barometer that will help explain what is now taking place within the S&P 500 Index which it follows. And, why this might be of concern. Over the past couple of weeks the big ten stocks that make up about 28% of the Index (as a group) have increased in their value while a good number of the underlying stocks have decline in their value. As of last week's market close 79% of the stocks wiithin the Index were trading above thier 50 day moving average and at the close of this week the number had declined to 66%. In addition, over the past two weeks there has been money moving out of the Index according to my money flow indicator, which moved from a reading of 84 to 52.
    So, explain why the Index has moved upward in price over the past two weeks from 3851 (8/7 market close) to 3397 (8/21 market close) and reached a new high. It is very simple, the top ten stocks (as a group) have done most of the heavy lifting to propell the Index to it's new high while a good number of the underlying stocks have been in decline. The rise in the big ten (as a group) has been more than enough to offset the decine in the underlying (as a group) thus the price of the Index moved upward. After all, this is a cap weighted Index.
    In the past, with a decline in money flow along with a good number of stocks moving from above to below their 50 day moving average has often times indicated that a stock market dip (or pull back) is in the making due to a decline in broad based support along with money leaving. This could be because of political convention activity and investors reacting to it by voting with their wallets through the selling of securities. In addition, there was a big increase in short volume in SPY on Friday.
    So, what did Old_Skeet do? Absolutely nothing. I am still with my current asset allocation of 15/45/40 (cash/bonds/stocks). For the past five years (since retirement) I have been reconfiguring my portfolio from a growth allocation type which was as high as 10/20/70 down to the present all weather allocation of 20/40/40 which also affords some good income production. If I were to sell I'd be reducing my paycheck. In addition, I've got ample cash to put some into play during a stock market sell off. Presently, due to low cash yields and streached equity valuations I am overweight in bonds by +5%. For now, though, I'm mostly just sitting and watching.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take Care ... Be Safe ... and, Have a Good Weekend!
    Old_Skeet
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    VTMFX (Vanguard Tax Managed Balanced, 50/50) is about 80% of our taxable account. I used to collect funds (so many interesting ones mentioned here) and fiddle around with portfolio adjustments, and then I realized that VTMFX beat me every year and with less taxable income. So, now I keep it simple. (I'm late 50's and about 5 years pre-retirement.)
  • Cramer: all sound and fury

    I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
    Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
    Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
    What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
    My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.
  • Wasatch Ultra Growth Fund (WAMCX/WGMCX) to Close to New Investors
    The Fund will be open to:
    Existing shareholders in the Fund
    New shareholders investing directly with Wasatch Funds
    New/Existing clients of financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund
    You can read more about the fund closing at https://wasatchglobal.com/news-insights/.
  • Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
    @davfor, thank you for the good article. Those who have jobs and retirement accounts are doing much better but a sizable population are not so fortunate and they are suffering. New Zealand is the shining example of how they managed the public health risk well and as the result their citizen are doing much better than those in US.
  • Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4368106-municipal-bond-investing-in-covidminus-19-era
    Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
    This is a follow up to my first article on this topic published in April 2019.
    It gives some updated ideas when buying individual muni bonds and muni bond funds.
    Other considerations for bond investors
    Still reasonable safe assets and maybe slightly better yields than cash. I would consider getting more if near retirement
  • T. Rowe Price Target Date retirement blended funds in registration
    One can see from the images below, the glide path of these new funds is the same as the glide path of T. Rowe Price's Retirement Fund series of target date funds. That's TRP's more aggressive target date series.
    The difference seems to be that these new funds, as might be inferred from the name, use both actively and passively managed funds in their portfolios. This results in a somewhat lower ER for the new funds (around a dozen basis points less).
    image
    Retirement funds' glide path: image
  • M* - How to Create Cash Flows in Retirement
    I read the article and laughed. The first 4 pay under 1.9% which I wouldn't call great cash flow.
    VYM pays about 3.6%..BUT WAIT...The higher yield stock style investing must be debunked all the time. VYM trails the SP500 for YTD, 1, 3, 5, 10 years. VYM recovery was way behind. YTD: SP500=VFIAX made 14.7% more than VYM.
    I guess you missed the FAANGM and instead concentrated in higher income stocks (T???). Why not look at all stocks and select the best regardless of higher income.
    So, what is more important, higher income or higher total return? of course higher returns is better and what I have been practicing since the start, even at retirement.
    If I need more cash than my monthly dist (usually bond funds) I just sell some shares when I need to.
  • M* - How to Create Cash Flows in Retirement
    by Christine Benz
    Mentioned: T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) , Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv (VDIGX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Adm (VDADX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) , Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
    "It’s something that even casual market observers know well: Yields on bonds and cash have been going down, largely unabated, for almost three decades. Just when it seemed they had reached their nadir, payouts have taken another leg down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was just 0.51% on August 4, its lowest level since the equity-market panic back in March. Yields on lower-quality U.S. bonds spiked during the equity-market duress in the first quarter, but they too have drifted back down more recently."
    Article Here