Hi, expatsp!
I remain comfortable with
RPHYX. It's doing what I anticipated. The manager continues finding opportunities, some reportedly remarkable.
Mr. Sherman has never compared his fund to an insured savings account. He's also said that it comes with risks but that he thought the risks were definable and manageable. He's allowed that the fund might be underway for six-nine months but was comfortable that investors would be made whole in something like that time. (Might it be nine months this time? Maybe. Don't know.)
That roughly aligns with the fund's history: the historic recovery period for
RPHYX has been seven months, MINT has been six, ZEOIX has been five. ZEOIX tends to fall harder and rebound faster.
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I would be very thoughtful about what I compared my investments to. When people celebrate the success of "plain vanilla bond indexes," what they might actually be seeing is the performance of the Treasury component of indexes. What has succeeded over the past month have been the panic-purchase investments. The only Vanguard bond indexes above zero over the past month are Treasuries (or GNMA which is government-backed).
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury (VFISX) yields 0.8%, costs 0.2% and has risen 1.47% in four weeks. That's equivalent to 10 months of its normal (5 year) annual returns. Currently
the yield on one-year Treasuries is 0.25%; deduct the 0.2% and you're yielding 0.05% a year.
Intermediate and Long-Term Treasuries have both returned more in four weeks than they normally would in an entire year.
If you look at the Vanguard bond index returns, the longer the term on Treasuries, the higher the four-week return. If you look at the Vanguard corporate bond indexes, all are substantially negative and the longer the term, the greater the loss.
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I entirely understand folks' concern. I'm with ya 100% - maybe 150%; some days, 162.4%. We all want to look at see green
somewhere. I would have felt all warm and fuzzy if
RPHYX, at least, was above water. That was my feeling in 2013 when
RPHYX was up 3.4% while the Total Bond Market was down 2.3% and Long-Term Treasuries, today's heroes, were down 13%. As is, I'm merely calm and patient.
For what that's worth,
David