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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    My MMFs are up, short term, YTD, long term. I may die rich in a billion years.
    With "cash alternative" funds like RPHYX, up 0.10% for the week, 0.14% for the past month, and 0.46% YTD, and "old faithfuls" like PRWCX, up 0.17% for the week, 1.85% for the past month, and 3.22% YTD, I suspect lots of people here have funds that are in the green.
    According to M*'s screener, 1/4 of funds are up at least 3.77% over the past four weeks.
    People tend to feel losses more severely than gains. That may explain your perception, which is not to say that major portions of the market have not dropped lately. Still, there are parts of the market, like international (e.g. VXUS) that are up for the week.
    Personally, I don't look at individual funds' performance on a short term basis. I have a reasonably diversified portfolio, weatherproofed for down drafts, and usually just check overall performance.
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    For me, RPHYX outperformed BBBMX TRBUX and DLSNX in 1Q 2020, losing (.74)% . ZEOIX blew up and I was lucky to break even with that fund. I'm sticking with RPHYX for now, but definitely watching it closely !
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    @WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.
    Thanks for the tip. I did read your link. And I did look into RPHYX on other sources.
    I like the duration. The ER is too high for me to get into a B-rated bond fund. I don't think anything could get me into a B-rated fund.
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    @WABAC, you may want to review River Park Short Term High Yield, RPHYX. David has provided a detail analysis of the fund.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    YTD return is +0.3% while vast majority of bond funds are in red for the year.
  • Checking what Bond Fund to own in IRA
    Crash, I have looked over and thought a couple of your suggestions looked ok and better than what I have. I found that RPHYX, SUBFX,RPSIX, were all better if they maintain it. The Vanguard VTEB although tax free still looks good even in the IRA where we don't need tax free. I'll keep following and hope to consider one of these.
  • Checking what Bond Fund to own in IRA
    WATFX is a good fund, but since it has a decent amount of duration risk, a short-duration fund like RPHYX might be an acceptable complement to it. At 87, you probably shouldn't be taking on too much risk and RPHYX though it isn't a high income fund has strong downside protection and almost nil duration risk. SUBFX might be another interesting choice as it hedges out duration risk.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Warning: Investors need to understand their individual circumstances and their volatility and risk tolerances.....
    FWIW....Most of the time I just observe. Market timing is left to others. (2019 to 2020 were exceptions to this observer mind set while a new secondary investment portfolio was being established.)
    These are just a few somewhat random thoughts and opinions as 2021 begins from a generalist investor who typically acts with multi-year investment time frames:
    ***Its important to acknowledge the stock market is very expensive by historical measures -- particularly on the growth side. The articles linked above make that clear.
    But...
    ***The Fed is now part of the investment landscape in ways it was not in the past. That hit home to me in early 2019 when the Fed abandoned its rate tightening efforts ( Powell Put ).
    ***The Fed further clarified the breadth of the Powell Put by acting very aggressively last winter when the markets were in turmoil. It has also suggested it will intervene aggressively if market turmoil erupts again in the near term.
    ***Having Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary will probably increase coordination between the Fed and Treasury.
    ***Having the Democrats in charge probably means additional fiscal stimulus will occur this year.
    ***The pandemic will probably have a significant ongoing disruptive economic impact for much/most of this year. The probable shape of the post-pandemic investment landscape may not come into focus until late this year or next year.
    My investment portfolio thinking:
    The combination of near zero interest rates, the Feds aggressive stance, and substantial fiscal stimulus helped me to decide to leave my allocation to stocks somewhat elevated by my standards when the annual review was completed in December (strong stock market performance and a shift of about 5% of the portfolio from ZEOIX to utility stocks in August had bumped it up during 2020). But, a nod to uncertainty resulted in the purchase of GBLMX, CRAAX, and SVARX as well as some trimming of growth stock holdings during the transition from 2020 to 2021.
    Now I am just watching while keeping my eye on VIX out of curiosity. My crystal ball is still quite unclear about how long the Fed/fiscal stimulus part of the equation will succeed in keeping the bulls mostly in charge of the stock market. Maybe for multiple years if the Fed and fiscal policy makers navigate well??? But, maybe Grantham will prove to have been correct and the profitably investable top occurred last summer!!!
    Other portfolio notes:
    ***There is adequate cash in reserve (SPAXX, JPST, and RPHYX) and enough investments in bond funds to enable an investment portfolio reallocation into stocks if a significant (20%+) market decline occurs.
    ***I am a 70 year old retiree. The dividends, distributions, and any capital gains received during the year are invested separately in the "Cash Pot" for release to a non-investment account at the end of the year. So, the set-aside beginning this month is for probable release at the end of 2021. But, there are adequate reserves outside the investment accounts to ride out an investment apocalypse event if that occurs during the year.
  • rphyx Strong Sell 5 = as of 12/15/2020
    Yes, M* has it categorized as a high yield bond fund, but it is not a high yield bond fund.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=rphyx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Here is a 2017 analysis by David concerning the fund:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/05/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyxrphix/
    Read the paragraph above "Bottom Line" from the link above.
    In addition, you may want to check this link from Mr. Cohanzick's website concerning the funds he oversees. You'll note that Mr. Cohanzick does not classify Riverpark Short Term High Yield Fund as a high yield bond fund.
    https://www.cohanzick.com/strategies
    M* also provides a summary about the fund:
    A unique high-yield offering:
    RiverPark Short Term High Yield stands out from competitors by narrowing its investment menu to corporate credit issues with shortened maturities resulting from a structural change to the underlying businesses.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/rphix/quote
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/Data/Sites/17/media/docs/rpsthyf/RiverPark_Short_Term_High_Yield_Fund_Fact_Sheet.pdf
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201013005751/en/RiverPark-Short-Term-High-Yield-Fund-Celebrates-10th-Anniversary---Highest-Sharpe-Ratio
  • rphyx Strong Sell 5 = as of 12/15/2020
    Zacks Premium Research for RPHYX
    Zacks MF Rank More Info Strong Sell 5
    MF Research Report
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Not a particular judgement on the funds, but simply matter of not wanting to pay taxes because of all my put income this year. Some of them have indeed stunk up the place, though. In a market they are supposed to excel, they have been found wanting.
    Would like to hear from others which funds they gave up on because I don't want to land in those funds without having the full picture.
    At this point completely out of these funds
    BPRRX, BGRSX (to cut a long story short ...no pun intended)
    APPLX (selling each of last 3 years...what the effing F)
    GRSPX (meh...)
    MDISX, MQIFX (last of the funds I fell in love with the idea of owning, gotten over that the day I sold HSGFX)
    All Artisan funds I owned with "value" in the name but looking to buy back (still one I own, see below)
    RPHYX, RSIVX, WMCNX (Sorry people, I can do better selling puts)
    PRIJX (hoodwinked into the emerging markets value will do well idea, was in my MILs account)
    PVFIX (found alternative, see below)
    Funds I sold partially and still hold
    FMIMX
    ARTKX (if I sell it will generate capital gains)
    COBYX (my condolence to the manager's family who passed, but really when are you going to turn around?)
    Funds looking to sell at least some off to capture tax loss, hard decisions
    IVWAX (my bad luck has to be excellent, manager has to leave, and with all that cash still stinks)
    VGPMX (not "golden" any more)
    VSIAX (bad timing)
    WHGIX, FEVAX (not too worried, but since I don't reinvest dividends, have a loss on cost basis)
    Moves that paid off
    TMSRX (For MILs account)
    PVCMX (Mr Cinnamond, you are not allowed to closed and then re-open new fund any more, it's illegal)
    VLAAX, VALIX (lucky timing)
    ONERX (Jeff Wrona found God. M* says NEGATIVE. F Them. Rock On)
    Out of curiosity, why do you hold so many funds? I'm ballparking statistically here, but if most funds fail to beat the market, aren't you raising your chances of under performing the market with each fund you add?
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Not a particular judgement on the funds, but simply matter of not wanting to pay taxes because of all my put income this year. Some of them have indeed stunk up the place, though. In a market they are supposed to excel, they have been found wanting.
    Would like to hear from others which funds they gave up on because I don't want to land in those funds without having the full picture.
    At this point completely out of these funds
    BPRRX, BGRSX (to cut a long story short ...no pun intended)
    APPLX (selling each of last 3 years...what the effing F)
    GRSPX (meh...)
    MDISX, MQIFX (last of the funds I fell in love with the idea of owning, gotten over that the day I sold HSGFX)
    All Artisan funds I owned with "value" in the name but looking to buy back (still one I own, see below)
    RPHYX, RSIVX, WMCNX (Sorry people, I can do better selling puts)
    PRIJX (hoodwinked into the emerging markets value will do well idea, was in my MILs account)
    PVFIX (found alternative, see below)
    Funds I sold partially and still hold
    FMIMX
    ARTKX (if I sell it will generate capital gains)
    COBYX (my condolence to the manager's family who passed, but really when are you going to turn around?)
    Funds looking to sell at least some off to capture tax loss, hard decisions
    IVWAX (my bad luck has to be excellent, manager has to leave, and with all that cash still stinks)
    VGPMX (not "golden" any more)
    VSIAX (bad timing)
    WHGIX, FEVAX (not too worried, but since I don't reinvest dividends, have a loss on cost basis)
    Moves that paid off
    TMSRX (For MILs account)
    PVCMX (Mr Cinnamond, you are not allowed to closed and then re-open new fund any more, it's illegal)
    VLAAX, VALIX (lucky timing)
    ONERX (Jeff Wrona found God. M* says NEGATIVE. F Them. Rock On)
  • How are your bond funds holding up?
    I've moved on from bond funds. I never understood them, and I made that clear several times on MFO. With my newly discovered freedom selling puts, I have absolutely no use for them.
    The only out and out bond funds I owned were RSIVX and RPHYX. I expect to lose them by EOY. SIRIX and SSIIX I have to think about. I might get rid of some balanced funds as well. This year I'm going to greatly reduce the number of funds I own. I have previously belittled nonsense about owning "too many funds". I still don't have issue with it. Just that I've found a better mousetrap.
    Most of all, I'm sorry to say WFH due to Covid has been good to my health as well as wealth. I will not apologize for it. 007 can take a hike AFAIC.
  • Flash from the past !
    “My current bond funds consist of domestic investment-grade bonds almost exclusively.”
    I’ve got about half of my bond allocation in DODLX, which is mostly investment grade - both domestic and international. The rest is mostly in investment grade intermediate corporates (PBDIX) which I began favoring over former RPSIX after reading a tip from Bill Fleckenstein in March. (Basically - he advised at that time to stick with higher quality bonds). Turned out well this year as RPSIX seems to have lagged, for reasons I don’t fully understand. Must be the drag from the 10+% allocated to their equity income fund.
    I’m thinking the Fed’s backing of some corporates has been the impetus for the good bond returns across board. But, if true, than I don’t understand why HY hasn’t done better. Just checking a couple of T.Rowe’s HY funds, RPIHX, RPHYX, I find both barely above water this year. Likely, others have done better, as T. Rowe generally hews to the conservative side.
    Do I like bonds overall? No. I hold some as part of a broadly diversified portfolio. If you truly want diversification you’re going to have things that look promising and things that don’t appear promising under your umbrella.
  • Cramer: all sound and fury
    Interesting piece today. I don't listen to Cramer much; he, like his former co-host, are too devoted to the characters they play on TV. That said, Cramer made an interesting point (8/19/2020) about the shape and future of the market:
    The S&P’s new highs are a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing about the hardship of millions of people on food stamps, or the millions about to be fired from service jobs, or the homeless, or the people who are just huddled at home waiting for the vaccine . . .
    You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out. Just look the stocks that have brought us to these levels — they’re not the recovery plays. In fact, they are the opposite. They are stocks that tend to do well, because of what we call secular consideration [not] classic recovery stocks.
    The winners in this market are the companies that are most divorced from the underlying economy.
    Which is to say, it does not appear to be a prelude to a rebound in the underlying economy.
    That's sadly consistent with a new E*Trade survey of the beliefs and behaviors of Millennial and Gen Z investors, the so-called RobinHood investors who, in many cases, are using the market as a substitute for sports betting and other entertainment. E*Trade reports (8/19/2020) that such investors:
    • Risk tolerance skyrockets since the pandemic. Over half (51%) of Gen Z and Millennial investors say their risk tolerance has increased since the coronavirus outbreak, 23 percentage points higher than the total population.
    • They are taking cash off the sidelines. Over one in three investors (34%) under the age of 34 said they are moving out of cash and into new positions, 15 percentage points higher than the total population.
    • They are trading more frequently. Over half of investors (51%) under the age of 34 said they are trading equities and 46% said they’re trading derivatives more frequently since the pandemic, compared to 30% and 22% of the total population, respectively.
    • They’re optimistic for a quick recovery.
    If you care: "E-Trade's quarterly survey was conducted from July 1 to July 9 and included a sample of 873 self-directed active investors managing at least $10,000."
    Fool (or coward) that I am, my portfolio remains pretty hedged in the sense that I'm maintaining RiverPark Short-Term High Yield(RPHYX) and substituting T. Rowe Price Multi-Strategy Total Return (TMSRX) for more of my fixed-income and a bit of my equity exposure. Overall equity exposure is 50%ish, though a foolishly high percentage is non-US stocks.
    For what that's worth,
    David
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    actually this is giving me confidence in the fund. It's got more than half in cash, a heckuva bond mgr, and it's giving you 4.4%. This might be the "new" RPHYX
    2 completely different funds.
    RPHYX made 2.1% average annually in the last 3 years. Why would I want to own this fund? The only reason maybe cash "sub" since many bond funds I own made a lot more. RPHYX is mostly short term duration HY bonds + cash & Equivalents.
    MWFSX is a Multi sector fund. Please find me more bond funds with over 50% in cash. It made only 0.42% in the last month. That is at the bottom 2% in its category. For 3 months it is at the bottom 12%.
    The only confidence I have is when I see performance but maybe they are right and why rates started to go up in the last several days :-)
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    The cash-sub thing come 2-3 times weekly. Cash-sub is a fund with very low volatility for years except a short hiccup this year in March. If you raised the volatility then you have many regular bond funds.
    So, I would look at funds like ICSH, JPST,MINT, RPHYX(nice davfor)
    BTW, I hardly ever use cash-sub funds or even short term bond funds. Either I'm in all the way with mostly bond funds or in a rare occasion I'm out in a real MM fund. When a black swan shows up I don't want to play at all.
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    Any fund that dropped more than 2-3% YTD is not cash sub and why I like ICSH, JPST. These too had much lower volatility in other years.
    Agree. RPHYX also makes sense to me....
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    actually this is giving me confidence in the fund. It's got more than half in cash, a heckuva bond mgr, and it's giving you 4.4%. This might be the "new" RPHYX
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    David and colleagues decided to publish an entire encyclopedia on investing this month. Packed full of graphs, charts and analysis with the ambitious goal of assessing relative risk / reward for many different approaches (emphasis on risk). Some “end of the world” investment ideas are suggested, playing off the global warming theme. Everybody seems to agree that oil as an investment is in its death-throes. (I’ll submit that sometimes the consensus is wrong.) Charles Lynn Bolin offers a fascinating look at the bucket approach, which he uses. Personally, I never met a pie-chart I didn’t like, which I believe ties-in nicely in planning a bucket approach. Bucketing should ring a bell with Ol’ Skeet and many others here who use it - perhaps under a different name (like sleeves).
    One fund David looks at is RPIEX - Price’s Global Dynamic Bond fund. Dang it. I thought about that one some time back, but it was in the dumpster than. I even posted on the board and we all (?) agreed it had the characteristics of a perennial loser. Guess what? The fund has come alive and posted some nice YTD returns. David also re-examines RPHYX as a cash alternative. There’s more market neutral and alternative type offerings detailed by David and team than you can shake a finger at. I once owned Calimos’ version. High fees and poor performance than.
    Sorry I haven’t digested much of the commentary. I will in time. Right now it’s time to crank up the mower and tackle some 8” tall grass. My everlasting gratitude to David and the team at mfo for these timely incisive monthly reports.
    Link to August 1, 2020 Commentary: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/08/august-1-2020/
  • Pimco Income bond fund Another one that was good until it wasn't?
    The PIMIX assessment was based solely on PIMIX previous years. In 2018 it was at 18% in its category but making 0.6% is pretty low when PTIAX made 2% and SEMMX made 3.9%.
    Possibly the comparison with PTIAX alone was deemed not sufficiently persuasive. Regardless and for whatever reason, the ringer SEMMX was tossed in - a fund that isn't a multisector fund (per M*). Which begs the question: why stop with just the third best nontraditional fund of 2018?
    Instead of cherry picking SEMMX, a 1* fund with a tarnished reputation, one could have cherry picked CLMAX, a 5* fund. Its 2018 performance of 7.58% not only nearly doubled that of SEMMX, but it made PTIAX look anemic.
    ==========
    Argentinian fiasco? PIMIX had just a 2% exposure to bonds that dropped in value to 71¢ on the dollar.
    https://www.pionline.com/markets/pimcos-bet-argentine-bond-paying-75-rate-hit-peso-rout
    As that column noted: "PIMCO's profits or losses on the bonds would depend significantly on the extent to which it hedged its foreign-exchange exposure." PIMCO stated that half of PIMIX's position (i.e. 1%) was dollar-denominated.
    The proof is in the pudding. In August, PIMIX dropped 1.11% vs. the category's 0.83% gain. It made up that 1.94% underperformance in the remainder of the year by outperforming monthly by 0.65%, 0.40%, 0.36%, and 0.50%. (Data from M*)
    Interesting how attention is called to some some black swan events with small impact, while others are disregarded ("You can't look at PIMIX YTD and compare it to BND (high rated bonds) when we had a black swan")
    ========
    PDBAX is not a M* Multi category fund but a Intermediate core plus fund
    People here generally understand that M* categories are not the be-all end-all (see, e.g. RPHYX). I mentioned PDBAX specifically because M* does not calls it multisector, writing:
    I ...suggest[] again to take a look at core plus funds. Generally core plus funds carry a bit less credit risk than multisector funds, though there's a fair amount of overlap between the most aggressive core plus and the more tame multisector funds. ... For example PDBAX.
    The data I presented and that you quoted supports that thesis. What was your point?
    FWIW, ADVNX is not a Lipper multi-sector income fund but a flexible income fund.
    =========
    2) SD(volatility) lower than 5
    3) Morningstar return above average or high

    These are effectively the same test. Since standard deviation is a second moment, a single outlier will skew the calculation. If a fund's SD is not distorted by March's performance figure, then March's performance must not have been an outlier. This in turn virtually mandates that the fund's return be relatively high (i.e. without a significant dip).