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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Breakfast Briefing Wall Street Stocks Set For Downbeat Open As North Korea Standoff Intensifie
    Iran is working uranium enrichment-similar to US back in the Manhattan's day. So they have a way to go. It could be Russia or some rouge Russian nuclear scientists who want a quick payday.
  • The Breakfast Briefing Wall Street Stocks Set For Downbeat Open As North Korea Standoff Intensifie
    China would rather have a nuclear capable NK than an unstable one (refugees) or a united Korea that's allied with the US. I don't think Russia has any real interest in a united Korea either and neither one really fears the North, it's a distraction and a draw on assets for what Russia fears as much, if not more, than most things. If anyone in the world really cared about the people this could have ended a very long time ago.
  • The Breakfast Briefing Wall Street Stocks Set For Downbeat Open As North Korea Standoff Intensifie
  • The Closing Bell: Wall Street Lower As Investors Weigh Rising North Korea Tensions
    FYI: U.S. stocks were lower on Wednesday as investors rushed to safe-haven assets after President Donald Trump's "fire and fury" warning to North Korea escalated tensions with the nuclear-armed nation
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/japan-stocks-to-follow-u-s-drop-on-trump-threat-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1AP1AB
    MarketWatch:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-pull-back-as-north-korea-threatens-guam-2017-08-09/print
    IBD:
    http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-recover-to-thin-losses-retail-names-hit-hard/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/us-stocks-north-korea-disney-earnings.html
    AP:
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS_ASOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2017-08-09/your-evening-briefing
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Mixed
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Thank you @Ted. A bang-up job as usual. You are so appreciated. You have 11 links here which is great. However, for some who have only limited time, 11 may be more links than they wish to click on and read. I respectfully submit that there's room on this great board both for your awesome posts and those of others. Of course, care needs to be taken to avoid stepping on someone else's remarks. But, a bit of forgiveness needs to be exercised as well. We're all human here (last time I checked).
  • Investing According To Your Values Can Also Make You Money
    Right. First it excludes all companies that are involved (generally 5% or more of their business) in alcohol, gambling, tobacco, military weapons, civilian firearms, nuclear power, adult entertainment, or GMOs. Then on what's left it applies inclusionary screens.
    If anything, based on this enumerated list and the curvilinear (roughly speaking, parabolic) relationship between the number of screens and performance cited by RBC, the index uses nearly the absolute worst number of screens.
    One would expect an index with either more screens or fewer screens to do better. Selective choice by RBC of index or just bad luck? Doesn't matter, the effect's the same.
  • Investing According To Your Values Can Also Make You Money
    @Jojo26
    The RBC study you referenced looks at the KLD 400 Index. According to MSCI, the index's owner: "The MSCI KLD 400 Social Index is maintained in two stages. First, securities of companies involved in Nuclear Power, Tobacco, Alcohol, Gambling, Military Weapons, Civilian Firearms, GMOs and Adult Entertainment are excluded." https://msci.com/documents/10199/904492e6-527e-4d64-9904-c710bf1533c6
    It is precisely such exclusionary screens for SRI funds I stated the research was neutral about, revealing that such exclusionary indexes/funds either match the market or lag it slightly. It is ESG rankings in which every sector is included but the worst ranked ESG companies are minimized or eliminated that there is strong corroborative evidence for. Since you didn't read the links I provided to the DB report, here is an important excerpt:
    The evidence is compelling: Sustainable Investing can be a clear win for investors and for companies. However, many SRI fund managers, who have tended to use exclusionary screens, have historically struggled to capture this. We believe that ESG analysis should be built into the investment processes of every serious investor, and into the corporate strategy of every company that cares about shareholder value. ESG best-in-class focused funds should be able to capture superior risk-adjusted returns if well executed.
    This is the key finding of our report in which we looked at more than 100 academic studies of sustainable investing around the world, and then closely examined and categorized 56 research papers, as well as 2 literature reviews and 4 meta studies – we believe this is one of the most comprehensive reviews of the literature ever undertaken.
    Frequently, Sustainable Investing is stated to yield ‘mixed results”. However, by breaking down our analysis into different categories (SRI, CSR, and ESG) we have identified exactly where in the sprawling, diverse universe of so-called Sustainable Investment, value has been found.
    By applying what we believe to be a unique methodology, we show that “Corporate Social Responsibility” (CSR) and most importantly, “Environmental, Social and Governance” (ESG) factors are correlated with superior risk-adjusted returns at a securities level. In conducting this analysis, it became evident that CSR has essentially evolved into ESG. At the same time, we are able to show that studies of fund performance – which have been classified “Socially Responsible Investing” (SRI) in the academic literature and have tended to rely on exclusionary screens – show SRI adds little upside, although it does not underperform either. Exclusion, in many senses, is essentially a values-based or ethical consideration for investors.
    We were surprised by the clarity of the results we uncovered:
    100% of the academic studies agree that companies with high ratings for CSR and ESG factors have a lower cost of capital in terms of debt (loans and bonds) and equity. In effect, the market recognizes that these companies are lower risk than other companies and rewards them accordingly. This finding alone should put the issue of Sustainability squarely into the office of the Chief Financial Officer, if not the board, of every company.
    89% of the studies we examined show that companies with high ratings for ESG factors exhibit market-based outperformance, while 85% of the studies show these types of company’s exhibit accounting-based outperformance. Here a gain, the market is showing correlation between financial performance of companies and what it perceives as advantageous ESG strategies, at least over the medium (3-5 years) to long term (5-10 years).
    The single most important of these factors, and the most looked at by academics to date, is Governance (G), with 20 studies focusing in on this component of ESG (relative to 10 studies focusing on E and 8 studies on S). In other words, any company that thinks it does not need to bother with improving its systems of corporate governance is, in effect, thumbing its nose at the market and hurting its own performance all at the same time. In the hierarchy of factors that count with investors and the markets in general, Environment is the next most important, followed closely by Social factors.
    Most importantly, when we turn to fund returns, it is notable that these are all clustered into the SRI category. Here, 88% of studies of actual SRI fund returns show neutral or mixed results. Looking at the compositions of the fund universes included in the academic studies we see a lot of exclusionary screens being used. However, that is not to say that SRI funds have generally underperformed. In other words, we have found that SRI fund managers have struggled to capture outperformance in the broad SRI category but they have, at least, not lost money in the attempt.
    These conclusions go a long way towards explaining why the concept of sustainable investing has taken so long to gain acceptance and even now inspires indifference and even cynicism among many investors. It has been too closely associated for too long with the SRI fund manager results which are not only an extremely broad category (i.e. in terms of investment mandate), but historically were based more on exclusionary – as opposed to positive or best-in-class – screening. ESG investing, by contrast, takes the best-in-class approach. By analyzing the various categories within the universe of sustainable investing, we can now say confidently that the ESG approach, at an analytical level, works for investors and for companies both in terms of cost of capital and corporate financial performance (on a market and accounting basis). It is now a question of ESG best-in-class funds capturing the available returns.
  • Investing According To Your Values Can Also Make You Money
    Ya, I like the idea, too. It used to be that the SRI funds just did not offer attractive enough profit for shareholders. I note that state of affairs is changing for the better. OK, but my own Soc. Resp. filters are a lot more stringent than any of them I've seen. So I'm not in them not because I don't support the concept. I just don't think they go far enough. Guns, alcohol, gambling and nuclear stuff is not enough. Seems they are willing to invest in the criminal scum Big Banks. No thanks, from where I sit. That's just one example.
  • M* Is Doing What ?
    If there is a way to make money, rest assured M* will do it. Sadly, I believe that is the most important thing for them. We should accept this fact, whether or not there is a conflict of interest. It's always about money. They are not going to enter this new business line if they expect to lose money. M* never does that. Unfortunately, they are pretty much the one source for the detailed analytics so many of us need (or think we need).
    Yes. Sometimes you succeed simply by being first to the party. However, I always dream of the day when they will be "Blockbustered" or "Kodaked". To be realistic however, they might only be "Philip Morrissed" and will continue to exist even after nuclear winter, right after death, taxes and cockroaches.
  • Mutual Fund Observer - New Year's Edition
    "Snowball’s “publisher’s letter” shares a hard truth: despite everything you’ve heard in the past year, things are getting better."
    I found David's post a necessary tonic and I applaud that, but I think if we are talking big picture as he does, we also have to look at the even bigger picture of this globalization jigsaw puzzle. There is no question that the level of extreme poverty has decreased worldwide because of industrialization and globalization. But that has had consequences environmentally, economically and politically for more developed nations where people are accustomed to living on far more than $1.90 a day. One of the best pieces I've read on the recent election is this one: newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/hillary-clinton-and-the-populist-revolt
    In it the author states:
    "Earlier this year, an economist named Branko Milanović published a book called “Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization.” It’s a progress report on the “system” that Friedman heralded. Milanović analyzes global economic data from the past quarter century and concludes that the world has become more equal—poor countries catching up with rich ones—but that Western democracies have become less equal. Globalization’s biggest winners are the new Asian middle and upper classes, and the one-per-centers of the West: these groups have almost doubled their real incomes since the late eighties. The biggest losers are the American and European working and middle classes—until very recently, their incomes hardly budged.
    During these years, resistance to globalization has migrated from anarchists disrupting trade conferences to members of the vast middle classes of the West. Many of them have become Trump supporters, Brexit voters, constituents of Marine Le Pen and other European proto-fascists. After a generation of globalization, they’re trying to derail the train."
    So there has been a trade-off that has occurred between the world's wealthiest nations and the world's poorest and that has caused political upheaval. I cannot view that political upheaval as things getting better. Nationalism--a particularly virulent strain of nationalism in my view--is on the rise in several countries as a result. That has led to a level of geopolitical uncertainty we haven't seen in a long time. And yes the world has always been uncertain--this is a fact of life--but the stakes are higher than they've ever been. That's what's different--the stakes. The world is far more interconnected economically than it's ever been and the weaponry far more powerful than it has been prior to the advent of the nuclear age. Having unstable political leaders like Trump and Putin with such weaponry at their fingertips is not things getting better in my view. I reject notions to normalize these leaders. There is ample evidence they are not.
    Then there is a larger question David touched upon of climate change. That is also part of the jigsaw puzzle because the economic growth that has lifted so many out of extreme poverty as David rightly points out is a primary cause of carbon emissions and climate change. While the poor in emerging countries have every right to have dreams of living middle class American lives, there is a realistic question as to whether the climate can take more than one giant economy where people live like Americans do. In other words, the world's addiction to economic growth has environmental consequences. This seems to me to be the primary challenge of the generations to come so long as we don't end up in a terrible war before then.
    So no, I can't see things as getting better in 2017, not with a climate science denying, nuclear missile embracing jingoist in charge. But then I'm a journalist--a glass half empty guy on such issues--as David rightly points out most of the media is. Perhaps somewhere between the pessimists and the rose colored glasses is the truth.
  • Changing environment and year-end eval.
    DLFNX is my only core (core-plus) dedicated US bond fund. It's just 2.51% of portfolio. But I think I can make better use of the $3,700.00 that's in there, particularly after the seismic shift following the election. I make few changes to my portfolio along the way because I do a lot of digging before choosing a fund. Originally, I wanted Gundlach's know-how at the helm, and I also did not yet have a domestic bond position at all. But such a fund as DLFNX, though respectable and reliable, will not help to get me where I want to go, in this changed landscape in 2017 and beyond.
    Three-quarters of my stuff is with TRP, and if any change resulted in consolidating (and ergo simplifying) by putting more $$$ into TRP, that suits me. PRHYX is closed to new investors. What about RPIHX? I also see a very new fund: PTTFX which charges investors $20.00 above and beyond the ER if the balance is below $10,000.00--- but I could manage to initiate a starting position with $10K. ..... Seems to me that PTTFX is ostensibly the same sort of fund as MWTRX. "Total Return." But I can't even find a portfolio within that fund anywhere, even at the TRP website. ... I don't like RPSIX because it's a fund of funds.
    .......Or, shall I just liquidate DLFNX? It's one of just 2 funds I own that are in a regular, taxable, investment account, rather than IRA. I could use the proceeds to step-up the size of my stake in PNM, an electric utility. PNM is in a transition, shedding nuclear and coal-fired plants but everything I look at tells me I should definitely commit more money to it. (It's less than 1% of portf. right now.)
    Do I NEED a US domestic core-plus bond fund, after all? I am otherwise very well diversified. No question about THAT. Thanks for your responses. They are always helpful.
  • The Closing Bell: Stock Market Gains Evaporate After China Seizes U.S. Underwater Drone
    @Anna, After January 20th 2017,Who knows?
    China state newspaper warns Donald Trump over Taiwan:
    'Pride comes before a fall'
    A Chinese state-run newspaper has launched an unprecedented attack on Donald Trump
    “The calculating businessman might feel shrewd about seizing China's fate by the throat through the Taiwan question,” the piece read. “However, the truth is this inexperienced President-elect probably has no knowledge of what he's talking about.”
    “He has overestimated the US's capability of dominating the world and fails to understand the limitation of US powers in the current era...China is now confident enough to arm-wrestle with the US."imageChina flies nuclear bomber over South China Sea as a 'message' to Donald Trump
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-bomber-flight-send-message-donald-trump-taiwan-a7468021.html
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-state-newspaper-donald-trump-taiwan-one-china-policy-a7471326.html
    More Trump Repercussions in Today's MarketFrom Seeking Alpha
    A dark shadow has crossed over parts of the retail sector as more analysts weigh in on the negative impact of a border tax adjustment on goods sourced from outside the U.S. The GOP and President-elect Trump are expected to agree to support some form of border adjustments.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    Retail stocks that trade weak today amid the discussion include Deckers Outdoor (DECK -6.6%), Fossil (FOSL -5.7%), Coach(COH -3.1%), Iconix Brand Group (ICON -2.9%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.5%), Wolverine World Wide (WWW -2.3%), Lululemon .....
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3231209-concerns-border-tax-whack-retail-names
  • Bond Funds Losing Money In Roughest Stretch Since ‘Taper Tantrum’ Of 2013
    "Investors" or TRADERS, eh? I stay away from stuff I can't understand, or have doubts about my ability to make them work--- like puts and calls and shorts, whether boxers or jockeys. My allocation to global bonds pleases me, through thick and thicker. Diversification through ups and downs. Then Market movements don't freak me out. A good fellow I know told me that uncle Donald was costing him money already, and he's not even inaugurated, yet. This fellow put ALL his investments (401k) in "safe" bonds, then pulled it all into a "zero-risk-zero-return" MM fund when the bonds actually went DOWN after the election. Don't be spread too thin, but all eggs in one basket is NOT what to do. And this fine fellow I refer to has a degree in nuclear physics!
    I agree with your sentiments regarding the bond market. Same for stocks. It's been proven that jumping in and out is about the worst thing you can do -- for most of us mortals anyway.
    Haha @ ol' Rodney! King of the one-liners. Look him up on Youtube on Tonight Show appearances. You'll be rolling on the floor.
  • Bond Funds Losing Money In Roughest Stretch Since ‘Taper Tantrum’ Of 2013
    "Investors" or TRADERS, eh? I stay away from stuff I can't understand, or have doubts about my ability to make them work--- like puts and calls and shorts, whether boxers or jockeys. My allocation to global bonds pleases me, through thick and thicker. Diversification through ups and downs. Then Market movements don't freak me out. A good fellow I know told me that uncle Donald was costing him money already, and he's not even inaugurated, yet. This fellow put ALL his investments (401k) in "safe" bonds, then pulled it all into a "zero-risk-zero-return" MM fund when the bonds actually went DOWN after the election. Don't be spread too thin, but all eggs in one basket is NOT what to do. And this fine fellow I refer to has a degree in nuclear physics!
  • Case you're wondering more about the most recent "slap" to your health related holdings
    He's gonna love his new job. A mere whisper with no substance can move markets and create instability around the globe. It used to be that the way to prevent the US from making an aggressive move against your country was to have nuclear weapons. A more up to date strategy would be to have a Trump hotel property.
  • Liquid Alt Imposters Fall To The Wayside

    Plenty More Lined Up. With Better Ideas ?
    Steve Cohen and the Infinite Monkey Theorem
    By Michael P Regan a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist covering equities and financial services. Jul 27, 2016 2:05 PM CDT
    .. this theory came to mind while reading a Wall Street Journal article about how Steve Cohen is investing in a hedge fund run by investment firm Quantopian, which provides money to amateur quants who come up with profitable computerized trading strategies. These aren't exactly monkeys, of course; they're obviously much smarter. (The article mentions mechanical engineers and nuclear scientists.) But the idea is similar: Give enough people the right tools, and eventually you'll get Shakespeare. Or in this case, something even better: market-beating trading algorithms.
    Some 85,000 quant wannabes reportedly have signed up from 180 countries and created more than 400,000 algorithms trading U.S. stocks on the platform, and 10 have been selected to trade a few thousand dollars.
    .. It may be tempting to roll your eyes and dismiss the initiative as some sort of gimmick. That would be a mistake that ignores how much technology has democratized all manner of business models that previously had high barriers to entry
    And if you wanted to be the manager of a quant fund? Well, now it sounds as if Cohen and his crew are interested in knocking down those barriers to entry that stood in the way for a long time -- namely access to millions, or hundreds of millions of dollars, in capital. This will most likely inspire even more to storm the gates than the 85,000 that have already done so. Perhaps the only surprising part of this development is that it took this long to happen.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-27/steve-cohen-and-the-infinite-monkey-hedge-fund-managers
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Fall As Federal Reserve Decision Sparks Growth Concerns
    Oil News
    Oil Price
    FREE
    WEEKLY REPORT oilprice.com Evan Kelly
    News Editor, Oilprice.com
    18/09/2015(excerpts)
    The Fed cited strong consumer demand, solid job gains, declining unemployment – all reasons that a rate increase is likely sometime soon. When that increase does occur, it will be the first increase in almost a decade. Crude oil prices barely budged on the news, trading slightly down.
    Goldman made headlines recently when it outlined a scenario in which oil prices would drop to $20 per barrel. Now the bank is outdoing itself with a prediction that oil will remain around $50 per barrel though 2030. For evidence, it points to the bust of the 1980s when oil prices did not rebound until the turn of the century.....there is a recipe for a rather strong rebound in oil prices in the coming years. Obviously, the big question is when that will happen. The glut could persist through this year and next, but calling for oil to remain near $50 per barrel for 15 years seems like a stretch.
    The $70 billion takeover of BG Group (LON: BG) by Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) ran into a road block in Australia this week. Australian regulators decided to push off a decision on the merger by two months due to a wave of opposition from Australian businesses worried about higher costs of natural gas.
    Statoil (NYSE: STO) brought the first subsea compression plant in the world online this week. The subsea facility, located at Asgard in the Norwegian Sea, will increase production by around 306 million barrels of oil equivalent, boosting output from the aging field. ...the closer you can get to the well, the more oil and gas can be recovered. Usually, compression is done at the sea surface on a platform. This is the first gas compression facility at the sea floor. It is illustrative of an important emerging trend in the offshore oil industry.
    The U.S. House of Representatives is moving on legislation to repeal the decades-old ban on crude oil exports. After previously passing a subcommittee vote, the full House Energy and Commerce Committee passed the bill this week by a 31-19 vote. Next up is the full House vote, which could take place in late September. The White House came out against the legislation this week, arguing that the decision to allow crude oil exports should be left to the Department of Commerce. The hotly contested issue has caused a clash between the upstream energy sector and downstream refiners.
    WTI and Brent benchmarks. The spread between the two is narrowing, shrinking to its lowest level in eight months. For several years WTI had traded at a discount, owing both to the crude oil export ban in the United States as well as the resulting localized glut of oil trapped within its borders. Also, pipeline shortages led to oil being diverted into storage, pushing down WTI. But with new pipelines now in place, along with declining U.S. oil production, WTI is now converging towards Brent. And as the discount vanishes, so does the opportunity for U.S. oil exports. At the current spread, exports are largely uneconomical.
    The state-owned Colombian oil company Ecopetrol and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) have announced plans to invest $2 billion over the next 10 years to boost production at the onshore oil field La Cira-Infantas.
    Finally, in a bit of natural gas news, this fall could see an uptick in natural gas consumption as several nuclear power plants go offline for refueling. The EIA projects that 9 percent of the U.S.’ nuclear power capacity is currently offline, a number that could grow this fall. Between September and December, around 30 reactors could undergo refueling maintenance
    http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel18092015
  • Is $1 Million Enough to Cover the Average American's Expenses in Retirement?
    Hi Dex,
    I believe you are wrong.
    The analysis is a simple money flow balance usually done on an annual basis. To oversimplify, portfolio value at the beginning of the year plus annual incomes plus/minus portfolio returns minus total expenditures equates to an end balance. It is a money balancing equation done yearly. If the bottom line goes negative, the portfolio does not survive.
    But let's assume you are right. Adding another constraint to the global money balance (what you termed cash flow) will only lower portfolio survival probabilities. My second 6 set of simulations included your entire resources and represents a maximum survival rate likelihood. Any other money transfers within those resources will only contribute to failure. Sorry, but that is the analyses outcome.
    Bad mouthing Monte Carlo simulations is fruitless and a Loser's game. Monte Carlo tools have been developed by Nobel quality researchers like Bill Sharpe for two decades and by nuclear designers for about eight decades. It is a time tested and verified tool. Certainly some codes are better than others. I like the Flexible Retirement Planner tool that I referenced earlier.
    Please do not elect to swim against the tide. More progress will made going with the now accepted flow. Your reluctance to do so speaks volumes.
    Best Wishes.
  • For you younger people hoping to retire comfortably - give up the dream.
    Hi Guys,
    Wow!
    When I first started thinking in terms of an early retirement, I was approaching 60. Thinking and planning for a mid-50s retirement was never in my playbook. Congratulations if you want and can execute that major league feat.
    Every case is highly personal, and therefore singularly different.
    In my case, my earning and saving career only started after completing graduate school and doing some military service. I was 30 before mustering out of the Army. At that time, my wife and I packed our entire belongings in an old Chevy and headed for California with the back seat still partially empty. No way could we manage retirement in just a little North of 20 years.
    But that’s our story, and I’m sure each of you have your own compelling versions. For you younger folks, retirement will be a life changing event, and warrants careful and painful study before a decision is made. I say painful because of the many component uncertainties that feed that decision process.
    One tool that addresses some of these uncertainties is Monte Carlo simulators. Monte Carlo analyses were specifically designed to assess risk probabilities under uncertain environments. During World War II, they played a significant role in the development of nuclear weapons. Within the last 2 decades, Monte Carlo simulations have been developed to facilitate retirement planning. These simulators are now readily accessible for all to exploit.
    All the large mutual fund outfits offer this tool: Vanguard, Fidelity, T Rowe Price and others provide versions of differing complexity and differing input requirements. They all do yeomen work. I suggest you do a web search using Monte Carlo retirement planning as key words. You can choose your own poison from a long list of options.
    One of my favorites is found at the MoneyChimp site. It is certainly not the most eloquent nor is it the most comprehensive option. But it is likely the easiest to input with instantaneous outputs from 1000 randomly selected cases. Here is the Link:
    http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
    One of the benefits from these simulators is that what-if scenarios are quickly input and evaluated. Portfolio survival probabilities as a function of retirement time is the graphic output.
    Test how significant the anticipated retirement length is to the portfolio survival likelihoods. Check out sensitivity to savings rate. Examine the survival impacts of guesstimated portfolio annual returns and their volatility by inputting various levels for each parameter. All of these sensitivity studies can be completed in quick time.
    All Monte Carlo analyses only output probabilities. They don’t predict the future. That’s the nature of future uncertainties. But they provide the user with a feeling for the robustness of his plans and provide guidelines for more attractive options. Please give this working tool a try.
    By the way, Monte Carlo simulators might also help retirees to make better informed portfolio asset allocation and drawdown decisions. None of this is perfect, but in the investment universe, nothing is ever perfect.
    Best Wishes for wise decision making.
  • The Closing Bell; U.S. Stocks Drop As GDP Growth Slows
    @Anna
    Ah, "War Games" !
    The full list of scenario names is here; and no winners.