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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Social security & IRMAA
    Maybe a side note to this thread, but HSA contributions adjust gross income. Further, if one has earned income through self employment, Health insurance premiums (including ACA Insurance premiums) are deductible against self employment income which would also potentially lower AGI.
    So, when calculating for ACA premium credits remember to "adjusts" ones AGI to reflect the possibility of these two income deductions when calculating your MAGI for ACA eligibility and premium credits.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/13/22
    Good point. Next week we have three Fed officials speak, Monday - Bullard, Tuesday, and Thursday - Powell. I can not imagine much soothsaying from the Fed next week. I was hoping equities would go up today to take some recent paper profits, instead I ended up selling more of my small Muni allocation. The MUNIs I bought during 2013 taper tantrum have now dipped below zero.
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Not doing much buying at this time.
    Dollar-cost averaging into PRILX (HSA) and MIEIX (401k) every two weeks.
  • Penn Mutual Am 1847 Income I
    Yup @Bopa, I'm in and have been for a while.
    I've watched the snippets of Cipollini III the fund mgr, formerly one of the fund mgr's of Berwyn Income and like what I hear. Rational thinking, talks to picking up holdings during volatility in the markets...I know he would make better decisions than me during the frequent market schmeissings, the fund allows me to stay invested during the large downdraft days. I also like that he is I'm guessing 15 years or so younger than me so I'm thinking I can hold this one as I get older, maybe?
    Stock portfolio portion is balanced between small, mid, large stonks, some intl stocks, def value stocks, real balanced between categories meaning defensives, cyclicals, market senstitive segments.
    I think he was in something like 20% cash going into 2022 which likely assisted the positioning of the fund.
    Someone here did mention the co-port mgr, Saylor left the fund several months ago?
    This one, HSAFX Hussy and PVCMX Palm Valley have been some funds that have allowed me to stay invested over the past few months.
    I do remember when he was running BERIX few years back, there was a posted brochure on their website that going back 10 years, drawing down THE 4% every year, the BERIX fund then co managed by Cippollini III, actually increased in value even when accounting for the withdrawls. Maybe he can make that happen here too?
    FWIW, from my perspective, it's a keeper, YMMV.
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    "Facebook posts claim that the rising cost of goods in the United States is due to price gouging rather than inflation. But experts rejected the idea that corporations are the main culprit and said the spike in prices follows big federal spending, heightened demand, and supply problems, all of which have accompanied the pandemic."
    https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.9ZG3DG (apologies if the link does not work, go read the article)
    We can pee in each other's Cheerios all morning as to the root cause of the inflation we are experiencing, we likely won't agree. But there is no doubt it is real. The question is for how long and where to protect your investments.
    Anecdotally, my heating bill for my home in the Blue Ridge Mtns, same usage as prior year etc, ~$235 last month vs ~$145. Not a small increase. I don't have to tell you about grocery shopping or what services are costing these days.
    What concerns me the most is that from a product standpoint, my thinking is there might be a tremendous amount of "false orders", meaning I need 10k widgets but better order 15k because the lead times are extended. what happens when that unravels or there are cancelations?
    I want to see when many companies provide raises to their associates this spring...what willl that look like...what will the wage-price spiral look like?
    Wondering if we are about to get into a stagflation scenario...tough times during the late 70's early 80's. Will the precious metals protect our purchasing power...might not be a bad idea, dunno?
    WSJ article over the weekend stated we are in "unchartered waters" as we have never experienced the same scenario we are going thru now. So who knows?
    I'm thinking about the metals, also HSAFX, our ole' friend Hussy might be telling us "I told you so" by the end of the year but he likely has too much class to do that.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • RLSFX
    replying to @hank, "where to hide?" Maybe, who knows listed below?
    PMEFX Penn Mutual AM 1847 Income (am a bit concerned about bond portfolio side of fund, lower rated bonds, not sure?)
    TSUMX Thornburg Summit, been watching this one for a while, you can finally get in with an IRA at Schwab under the $1MM initial investment, I'm in
    HSAFX, Hussy allocation...if the stuff really hits the fan this year,likely good place to hide
    PVCMX, Palm Valley...lot of cash, absolute return investment
    BLNDX, as profiled by Prof Snowball a few months back, I didn't like the one day drop of ~5% back in November? and bailed but now thinking if any fund is going to make high single digits+ this year, it could be this one? I've waded back in...we'll see what happens
    FMSDX, Fidelity Mult Asset Income, hanging in there
    We talked about I bonds prior
    I bailed on TANDX, Tandem, ~ 30% in cash, drawdown NOT to my liking, disappointing
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • 7 bear market funds
    @JD_co
    Hussy hsgfx after this reset might be top dog looking backwards 10 years
    What are your thoughts re hussy hsafx. Allocation fund with risk controls. Puts. Looks at stonk and bond valuations when setting allocation. Most target date, allocation funds don't??
    Best
    Baseball Fan
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    @Derf,
    I have three puddles of retirement income: Roth IRA, T-IRA and HSA. I have pension, but no Social security.
    Until 65 I will be contributing to my HSA and managing my income to maximize my ACA (Affordable Care Act) premiums.
    From 65 to 72 I plan on managing withdrawals / conversions from my T-IRA to the extent that I can maximize my (15%) tax bracket. At 72 RMDs will start.
    RMDs percentages increase each year. Depending on your T-IRA balance, these RMDs could be more than one needs to spend.
    Do you find you spend your entire RMD or does some end up puddling in a taxable account?
    Here's @yogibearbull's RMD chart:
    image
  • Any GREEN today
    Hussman's newer fund HSAFX seems to be a better, more stable fund than the older HSGFX, holding its own during both upturns and downturns.
  • Any GREEN today
    @Hank, I don't own it; did own HSTRX about 12 years ago for a while. A friend owns HSAFX now and isn't too unhappy with it, but you know what they say about a stopped clock.
    But then the best I did yesterday was zero from NVHAX, EIXIX, and PQTAX.
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    The CEO sent out an email apologizing for the problems people are having connecting to Schwab: Link
    I’m on Quicken for Mac and switched over to the new Schwab connection early in the process and haven’t encountered any issues.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    (Lipper* generally quotes from the manager’s description):
    “The Fund seeks total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation. BlackRock will invest the Funds assets through a diversified set of strategies that seek to provide total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress.”
    77% in bonds likely reason the fund was up a bit yesterday. Longer dated high quality bonds were up sharply.
    Since the asset breakdown on Lipper adds up to 100%, it’s unlikely they’re doing much (if any) shorting - which generally skews the total to something over 100.
    I tend to like Blackrock. Rock Rieder, one of their fixed income people, talks a good game. Bright and articulate.
    No fund is a “spaghetti bowl” if one is willing to invest the time and energy into exploring the contents. In the case of TMSRX I’ve not done the due diligence I probably should have, trusting in TRP whom I’ve been with for about 30 years to run that complex fund on the straight and narrow and not put my money at excessive risk. But that’s laziness on my part - not dereliction on theirs.
    @Baseball_Fan - Could you share a little about your current investment approach? What do you like in addition to near 0% cash? I recall about 6-7 months ago you were buying Home Depot and also looking for inflation hedges. The problem with those inflation hedges is that a lot of other people caught the scent in the wind 6 months ago and chased. It’s a diverse lot. Some areas (certain industrial metals) are doing fine and may not be overpriced. But it’s a rough playing field as evidenced by the more than 6% drop in oil yesterday.
    *Link to BAMBX Lipper profile: http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?YYY622_6m0GgCfSF7IkKdT1pfwHShuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLcR/QKIWm+VprdhsazlKneG
  • Has BRUFX changed its stripes?
    @Crash,
    This fund is probably the closest investment I own that has the touch of just two people... The Bruce Family...father and son. YACKX comes to mind, but I think that has changed. Maybe there are others still, but fewer and fewer funds operate this way. Not an index fund. As old school as they come. Hell, you have to mail your buy and sell orders. I own this in my HSA. I find BRUFX helps me... keep well.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
    I converted my small Traditional IRA (~ $35K) to a Roth IRA in 1998.
    I've been very fortunate that the Roth IRA has increased in value considerably since 1998.
    However, the Roth by itself would not provide for a comfortable retirement.
    Thankfully, I also have access to 401k and HSA plans.
    It would be beneficial to have a retirement plan similar to the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) universally available for employees without access to traditional 401k/403b plans (often employees at smaller companies).
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    The contribution limit for 401k/403b/457 plans will increase from $19,500 in 2021 to $20,500 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit remains $6,500.
    Contribution limits and catch-up contribution limits for Traditional/Roth IRAs are unchanged at $6,000 and $1,000 respectively.
    HSA contribution limits for single coverage will increase from $3,600 in 2021 to $3,650 in 2022.
    HSA contribution limits for family coverage will increase from $7,200 in 2021 to $7,300 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit is unchanged at $1,000.
    Refer to the article for additional contribution/income limits.
    Link
  • Prez want's minimum 15% corporate tax. From latest message before heading out.
    No deductions. None. And I assume the tax applies to all income. For all taxpayers including businesses, which is the subject of this thread.
    So we eliminate the deduction that mutual funds get for passing through their earnings to investors. Make no mistake, that's a deduction that they get now. See IRC 26 USC § 852, that talks about "the deduction for dividends paid", including "capital gain dividends". Mutual funds will be taxed on their earnings.
    And we eliminate the IRA deduction. That's an "above the line" deduction rather than an itemized deduction, but a deduction is a deduction. We want to keep things simple. Obviously HSA, FSA, 401k deductions, and so forth also get tossed.
    And income is income, no special cases there either. In the above cited 26 USC § 852 is §852(b)(6). That excludes certain sales of appreciated property from being counted as income. Of course that special treatment has to go in pursuit of simplicity and fairness. That's the exclusion that enables ETFs to spin off capital gains without them being taxed. So now we tax the ETF in-kind transactions like all other income.
    Regarding the suggested tax regimen generally, Milton Friedman was more considerate of the poor. In 1962 he proposed what he called a negative income tax. The amount paid on zero income would be negative, and taxes increased (at a flat rate) as one's income increased.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/23/business/23scene.html
    https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/negative-income-tax-explained
  • HSGFX now negative for the year
    FWIW - HSAFX’s allocation per Lipper:
    46% Stocks
    41% Cash
    13% Bonds
    0% Other
  • HSGFX now negative for the year
    His allocation fund HSAFX isn't all that great, but at least it's up 7% ytd and was up 11% in 2020 (M* figures).
  • How to Break Down Health Care Costs in Retirement - TRowePrice Study
    Thanks @msf for chiming in. Not only do articles get things wrong, but rules change.
    I like to visit Ed Slott's website for accurate information and updates on changes. Here is a link to a HSA search on his site for HSA topics (128 articles) that usually get it right.
    https://irahelp.com/search/ft/hsa
    One that hit me was the advantage passing an HSA on to a spouse verses the disadvantage of it being inherited by a non- spouse:
    Why Your Kids Don’t Want Your HSA
    why-your-kids-don%E2%80%99t-want-your-hsa
  • How to Break Down Health Care Costs in Retirement - TRowePrice Study
    How to Be Proactive With Your Medicare Options:
    planning-for-medicare
    A very good piece that mentions many of the gotchas often omitted. For example, articles often note that HSA account money can be used to pay for Medicare premiums, but they don't clarify that one cannot use HSA money for Medigap premiums. This piece got it right.
    This leads to a (weak) argument in favor of Medicare Advantage plans. MA plans can provide coverage (e.g. an out of pocket cap) similar to Medigap plans. And you can pay for their premiums with HSA money, unlike Medigap premiums.
    There is a related gotcha that was omitted. You can only use money from your HSA to pay for Medicare premiums if you are over age 65. That may sound like a nobrainer, but you could have Medicare at an earlier age, or you might be paying your spouse's Medicare premiums while you yourself are still under age 65.
    One detail that it got wrong is:
    Unlike tax brackets, the [IRMAA] thresholds don’t automatically change with inflation.
    But they do automatically change:
    Starting on January 1, 2020, the threshold amounts will resume adjustment for inflation
    20 CFR § 418.1105(c)
    That comes from the ACA (which also suspended inflation adjustments for several years before 2020).