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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Thanks for your input @Old_Joe. I’m hesitant to list funds I own because what’s appropriate for me might be too aggressive or too lame for another. But one I’ve watched for years and finally picked up recently is BAMBX. the “Geritol” of funds. Lewis Braham did a very nice write up on it in Barron’s in November 2020.
  • Crossing Wall Street - Market Review

    good blog, but eddy is assuming behavior derived from typical capital\economic mkt cycles.
    he could still be directionally correct, but with far greater number of exceptions due to fiscal policy weight.
    there exists some piecemeal research effort to capture this for fwd estimates.
    i may post this again elsewhere due to its greater relevance :
    https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/blind-to-power-the-hidden-investing-risk-of-rising-strongmen-peter-atwater
  • Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence
    Morningstar announced the nominees for the 2025 Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence.
    Eligibility requirements include an analyst-assigned M* Medalist Rating of Bronze
    or higher and a People Pillar rating of Above Average or High.
    M* will announce the winners in early July.
    Outstanding US Equity Portfolio Manager Nominees
    Will Danoff - Fidelity Contrafund
    Bill Nygren - Oakmark, Oakmark Select
    David Samra - Artisan International Value
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-equity-portfolio-manager-nominees
    Outstanding Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager Nominees
    Richard D. Figuly - JPMorgan Core Bond
    Bryan C. Krug - Artisan High Income
    Ford E. O’Neil - Fidelity Advisor Total Bond
    https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-fixed-income-portfolio-manager-nominees
    Outstanding Allocation Portfolio Manager Nominees
    Michael Gates - BlackRock Target Allocation ETF series
    David Giroux - T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    Phil Green - BlackRock LifePath Dynamic Fund series
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-allocation-portfolio-manager-nominees
  • ‘Why am I Doing This?’ These Investors Are Locking in Stock Gains While They Can. (WSJ)
    ”Overall, individual investors are still buying stocks more than they are selling. But a rally-chasing shopping spree cooled significantly in May … Retail traders bought $23 billion worth of equities in May, according to a JPMorgan Chase report, down roughly $17 billion from the month prior. Last week, individual investors sold a net $400 million worth of individual stocks, the bank’s analysts found.”
    Link to article (republished at MSN)
  • VGMS - Vanguard Multi Sector Bond ETF
    Jeff is wise since high yield bonds have positive asset correlation to stocks, while high quality investment grade bonds do not. Junk bonds are vulnerable to severe drawdown such as 2020 pandemic. Treasury, on the other hand, held we well.
  • BNY Mellon Income Stock Fund will be converted into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111565/000174177325002495/c497.htm
    June 11, 2025
    BNY MELLON FUNDS TRUST
    BNY Mellon Income Stock Fund
    Supplement to Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    The Board of Trustees of BNY Mellon Funds Trust (the “Trust”) has approved, subject to shareholder approval, the conversion of BNY Mellon Income Stock Fund (the “Fund”), which currently operates as a mutual fund, into an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”). If approved by Fund shareholders, the Fund will be converted into an ETF through its reorganization with and into BNY Mellon Enhanced Dividend and Income ETF (the “Acquiring ETF”) pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Agreement”) between the Trust, on behalf of the Fund, and BNY Mellon ETF Trust II (“ETF Trust II”), on behalf of the Acquiring ETF. Accordingly, if the reorganization is approved by Fund shareholders, the Fund will transfer its assets to the Acquiring ETF, in exchange for whole shares of the Acquiring ETF and the assumption by the Acquiring ETF of the Fund’s liabilities (the “Reorganization”). Upon consummation of the Reorganization, Acquiring ETF shares received by the Fund will be distributed to Fund shareholders, with each shareholder receiving a pro rata distribution of the Acquiring ETF shares received by the Fund, for Fund shares held prior to the Reorganization. If approved by Fund shareholders, the Reorganization will be consummated on or about the close of business on December 5, 2025 (the “Closing Date”). After the Reorganization, the Fund will cease operations and will be terminated as a series of the Trust.
    Importantly, as described in more detail below, in order to receive Acquiring ETF shares as part of the conversion, Fund shareholders must hold their shares through a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF. Please see the Q&A below for additional actions Fund shareholders can take in order to receive ETF shares in the conversion if such shareholders do not currently hold Fund shares through a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF.
    The Acquiring ETF is a newly-created series of ETF Trust II and will carry on the business of the Fund and assume its performance and financial records. The Acquiring ETF will have the same investment objective and similar investment strategies as the Fund. BNY Mellon Investment Adviser, Inc. (“BNY Adviser”) is the investment adviser to the Fund and BNY Mellon ETF Investment Adviser, LLC (“BNY ETF Adviser”), an affiliate of BNY Adviser, will serve as the investment adviser to the Acquiring ETF. Newton Investment Management North America, LLC (“NIMNA”), the Fund’s current sub-adviser, will serve as the sub-adviser to the Acquiring ETF and, subject to BNY ETF Adviser’s supervision and approval, provide the day-to-day management of the Acquiring ETF’s investments. The current primary portfolio managers of the Fund will manage the Acquiring ETF. The Acquiring ETF will be overseen by a different board, and will have certain different third-party service providers, than the Fund. The Acquiring ETF will not commence investment operations until the Reorganization is consummated.
    The Trust’s Board unanimously concluded that reorganizing the Fund into the Acquiring ETF is in the best interests of the Fund and that the interests of the Fund’s shareholders will not be diluted as a result of the Reorganization. BNY Adviser believes that the Reorganization will permit the Fund’s shareholders to pursue similar investment goals in the Acquiring ETF, which has a lower management fee and an estimated lower total annual expense ratio than the Fund. Management also believes that the Reorganization should provide certain other potential benefits for the Fund’s shareholders, including greater tax efficiency, the ability to purchase and sell shares throughout the trading day at the then-prevailing market price on an exchange, less cash drag on performance, and lower portfolio transaction costs.
    It is currently contemplated that shareholders of the Fund as of July 14, 2025 (the “Record Date”) will be asked to approve the Agreement on behalf of the Fund at a special meeting of shareholders to be held on or about September 10, 2025.
    As a condition to the closing of the Reorganization, the Fund will receive an opinion of counsel to the effect that, for federal income tax purposes, the Reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization and, thus, no gain or loss will be recognized by the Fund, the Fund’s shareholders or the Acquiring ETF as a direct result of the Reorganization. Fund shareholders may, however, be required to recognize gain or loss if their shares are redeemed, in whole or in part, in connection with the Reorganization.
    If the Reorganization is approved, each shareholder who holds their Fund shares through an account that may hold Acquiring ETF shares (a “Qualifying Account”), as described below, will become a shareholder of the Acquiring ETF on the Closing Date and will no longer be a shareholder of the Fund. Such shareholders will receive shares of the Acquiring ETF with an aggregate net asset value equal to the aggregate net asset value of their investment in the Fund immediately before the Reorganization. In addition, approximately two business days before the Reorganization, any fractional shares of the Fund held by shareholders will be redeemed at the current net asset value and the Fund will distribute the redemption proceeds in cash to those shareholders.
    If the Reorganization is approved, each shareholder who holds their Fund shares through an account that is not permitted to hold Acquiring ETF shares (a “Non-Qualifying Account”), as described below, will not receive Acquiring ETF shares in connection with the Reorganization. Instead, depending on the type of account through which such shareholder holds their Fund shares, the shareholder will either receive cash or Wealth shares of Dreyfus Government Cash Management, a government money market fund advised by BNY Adviser and sub-advised by Dreyfus, a division of Mellon Investments Corporation, an affiliate of BNY Adviser. The redemption or transfer of such shareholder’s investment may be subject to tax.
    The Acquiring ETF offers one class of shares and does not issue fractional shares. If the Reorganization is approved, Class A, Class C, Class I, Class Y, and Investor shares of the Fund will be converted into Class M shares of the Fund (without a contingent deferred sales charge (“CDSC”) or other charge). The share class conversion is expected to occur approximately two weeks before the Closing Date. The Fund’s exchange privilege (exchanges into and out of the Fund with other series of the Trust) will be terminated on or about November 21, 2025.
    In addition, approximately two weeks before the Reorganization, the Fund may, if deemed advisable by management of BNY Adviser, effect a share split (either forward or reverse) to approximate the net asset value per share of the Acquiring ETF. After such share split (if any), any fractional shares held by shareholders will be redeemed approximately two business days before the Closing Date, as noted above. The distribution to shareholders of such redemption proceeds, which is expected to be a small amount, will likely be a taxable event to shareholders who hold their shares in a taxable account and shareholders are encouraged to consult their tax advisors to determine the effect of such redemption.
    If the Reorganization is approved, effective on the first business day of the month following Fund shareholder approval of the Reorganization, (i) the CDSC applicable to Class C shares (and Class A shares, if applicable) of the Fund will not be imposed on redemptions made by shareholders of the Fund, (ii) the applicable front-end sales load will not be imposed on investments in the Fund’s Class A shares, (iii) the Fund’s 12b-1 and shareholder services plan fees will be waived, and (iv) any letters of intent will be closed out. In addition, effective on the first business day following Fund shareholder approval of the Reorganization, no investments for new accounts will be permitted in the Fund (with the exception of new accounts for clients of BNY Wealth, certain retirement plans, certain wrap programs and existing Fund shareholders who are transferring their Fund accounts to a brokerage or other account that is eligible to hold Acquiring ETF shares). The reinvestment of dividends and capital gains distributions will continue to be permitted. To the extent investments are made in the Fund on or after the first business day of the month following Fund shareholder approval of the Reorganization, the Fund’s distributor will not compensate financial institutions (which may include banks, securities dealers and other industry professionals) for selling Class C shares or Class A shares subject to a CDSC at the time of purchase. Approximately two business days prior to the Closing Date, the Fund will be closed to all purchases and redemptions...
  • Vanguard Files for ETF Classes of Active Mutual Funds
    Shareholders who have been enduring large taxable capital gain distributions brought on by actively managed fund redemptions stand to get some relief if this application is approved.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    I am now reminded of the very limited coverage that all the conservative "news" networks gave the events of Jan 6, as they unfolded in real time at our nation's capital. And how Fox eliminated all the violence and destruction from the video footage they eventually released. Such a peaceful day it was.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    This is like saying that the inflation that occurred in 2022 didn't really happen because the events leading to it took 18 months to percolate. Talk about unfurling the "Mission Accomplished" banner prematurely.
    It might even take longer than it took in 2020-2022, because the tariffs are not happening all at once, in the trillions of dollars, like the stimulus was dumped on the economy. The tariffs will be far more spread out in time, as people and companies make purchases.
  • David Giroux Video

    have NEVER been able to find a shuggi interview, but was surprised to hear a few things here :
    - would not invest in tsla@95% shareprice cut. uncharacteristic hyberbole; made me quite happy. probably tied to general comments later on ceo\mgmt checklist.
    - no discount in price valution ratios for quality firms below largecap space.
    - failed to mention what % revenue&profit for his american companies is foreign, lessening need to add intnl equity. (yes, its picky)
    giroux makes me feel his multi-asset risk aware GARP approach can meet any challenge, and i have to guard against taking capital gains elsewhere to make him the family's #1 manager displacing primecap group.
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Moody's says watch out. Per Reuters:

    The rapid growth in retail investors, who put their money into private markets, could create liquidity and asset quality risks, Moody's Ratings warned on Tuesday, highlighting potential vulnerabilities within the private credit sector.
    /snip
    the shift is also raising concerns about transparency, liquidity, and underwriting standards, as firms race to deploy capital amid limited supply of high-quality assets.
    Let's see, limited supply, and yet everybody now wants to retail it. Hmmm.
  • Bloomberg Wealth: Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn

    plus, he disliked musk long before that was cool.
    sadly that, plus remaining a whipped value investor, is among the few things we have in common.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-attacks-greenlight-capital-david-einhorn-on-twitter-2019-11?op=1
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank, I thought you are holding D&C Balance fund
    @Sven - For about 20 years beginning around 2000 I did have money directly at D&C and owned various funds there including DODBX. I got completely out a year or so after moving everything to Fidelity (around 2020-21). Fidelity makes it difficult to buy & sell D&C funds w/o commission.
    What you are probably remembering is I recently posted that one reason I never got seriously into PRWCX (owned a bit in a traditional IRA) was my investment in DODBX (inside a Roth) at the same time.
    Thanks for comment.
  • More new taxes
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/08/revenge-tax-trumps-spending-bill.html
    “Wall Street investors are shocked by [Section] 899 and apparently did not see it coming,” James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing director, wrote in a June 5 analysis."
    If enacted as written, the provision could have “significant implications for the asset management industry,” including cross-border income earned by hedge funds, private equity funds and other entities, Ernst & Young wrote on June 2.
    Passive investment income could be subject to a higher U.S. withholding tax, as high as 50% in some cases, the company noted. Some analysts worry that could impact future investment.
    The Investment Company Institute, which represents the asset management industry serving individual investors, warned in a May 30 statement that the provision is “written in a manner that could limit foreign investment to the U.S.”
  • Small-Cap Stocks
    I held OTCFX at TRP for decades. Until I realized that the long term gains that I had accrued were in danger of washing out. I began selling several years ago and am now down to zero. I exited while my annualized gains were still ~17%. It was a good run.
    Not sure I will ever wade back in. Can we even predict how tariffs will impact small caps?
  • Rare-Earth Minerals
    Trade talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled on Mon, 6/9 at an undisclosed London location.
    Rare-earth mineral exports will surely be one of the main discussion topics.
    China can leverage it's near-monopoly in rare-earth processing against our country.
    It's imperative that we eliminate our reliance on China for these elements which are vital for national security.
    It appears we are making progress in that regard.
    The following info is from a recent WSJ email I received.
    Q: America invented rare-earth magnets. Can it make them again?
    The first rare-earth magnets were discovered in the 1960s in a U.S. Air Force laboratory.
    The U.S. was one of the top producers into the 1990s.
    But over several decades, China took over.
    Now it has a stranglehold on a crucial component of much of the world’s modern technology.
    Reporter Jon Emont spoke to us about how the industry shifted and where it’s headed.
    A: It was only four decades ago that the U.S. was a global leader in churning out rare-earth magnets—
    needed in everything from car motors to F-35 fighter jets.
    But since then China has come to dominate the industry,
    thanks to its world-leading rare-earth mines and low-cost but sophisticated industrial base.
    Allowing this highly strategic industry to leave the U.S. and move to China now looks like
    one of the most confounding strategic errors of the 1990s and 2000s.

    But what can be built once can be built again.
    Since 2020 the U.S. government has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into grants to U.S. companies
    seeking to refine rare earths and turn them into magnets.
    Progress is being made. In the coming year or two, new U.S. magnet plants are expected to crank up,
    which should provide more independence from Chinese suppliers.
    But there are still gaps that need to be filled, including expanding non-Chinese production of a certain class
    of rare earths—known as “heavies”—which China is currently restricting and which are difficult to produce elsewhere. As the current industry panic over China’s export restrictions has shown,
    Beijing’s dominance of rare earths will likely give it real leverage over the U.S for years to come.
  • Bloomberg Wealth: Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn
    "Greenlight Capital Founder and President David Einhorn discusses the challenges of value investing
    in the current market environment, his investment approach, and the performance of his fund over the years.
    Einhorn expresses concern about the US government's fiscal and monetary policies,
    which he believes are fundamentally inflationary.
    He speaks with David Rubenstein on this week's episode of Bloomberg Wealth."

    Chapters:
    00:02:48 - Greenlight Capital
    00:09:06 - USD
    00:10:54 - US Decoupling with China
    00:12:40 - Warren Buffett
    00:13:27 - Einhorn's Background
    00:19:27 - Poker
    00:21:09 - Advice
    00:22:21 - Investing $100k
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48In79LWrio
  • David Giroux Video
    I discovered the following video while navigating the vast interwebs.
    I know Mr. Giroux has many fans here.
    "In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy,
    including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities,
    adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio.
    He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles,
    and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market."

    Timestamps:
    00:00 Introduction to David Giroux and his track record
    02:00 What “growth at a reasonable price” means to him
    05:00 Market outlook and 5-year return forecasts
    10:00 How short-termism creates opportunity
    12:00 Tariffs, macro shocks, and stock picking
    16:00 The role of bottom-up IRR modeling
    18:00 Does passive investing distort market signals?
    22:00 The inefficiencies created by sector-based ETFs
    26:00 How his process evolved to capture intangible-rich businesses
    29:00 Tech valuations vs. the dot-com bubble
    32:00 Where he sees opportunity: software, healthcare, utilities
    36:00 Areas he’s avoiding: financials and cyclicals
    38:00 The role of management and capital allocation in success
    43:00 How he uses quantitative tools for downside risk
    46:00 Risk-adjusted return as the true North Star
    48:00 How investor behavior has changed over his career
    50:00 The long-term economic implications of AI
    53:00 U.S. vs. international stocks from a bottom-up view
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6SBVS7VpTA
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    I tried to read this guy for a while but gave up. All hype. (One of his partners in crime John Maudlin is hawking "Longevity Clinics" apparently based on chelation infusions or something.)
    "A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life"
    I just checked. Our house from 1987 to 2020 was 1152 sq feet.
    We sure must have failed:
    We raised two kids who graduated Cum Laude from Ivy League schools with no debt and have great but lower paying jobs ( English teacher and development officer at small non profit) but they can do jobs they love because they have no debt.
    wife and I both worked in health care, geriatrics and primary care but never made even the average for a general internists or Nurse practitioner.
    We drove old cars, took cheap vacations and saved our money and certainly didn't spend it on a big fancy house, expensive furnishings or elaborate meals
  • When Does the National Debt Become Genuinely Bad?
    Some interesting facts about Treasury holdings for China and the UK.
    "The rise of the UK’s recorded holdings does not reflect its own reserves.
    Rather, analysts say it reflects London’s role as a domicile for international capital."

    "The proportion of China’s Treasury holdings that were in short term bills,
    the most liquid securities that could be most easily sold off in a crunch,
    in March hit its highest level since 2009."

    "Analysts said that the data, which only shows moves until the end of March,
    did not reflect any action taken by China after Trump’s so-called 'liberation day' escalation of his trade war.
    'It is possible that China could have made significant changes in its reserve management
    in the last six weeks that will only become clear with more time,' said Setser."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/economy/uk-overtakes-china-as-second-largest-us-treasury-holder/ar-AA1EWG3M