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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    There are institutional share classes and institutional investors. Schwab has designated more funds as accessible only to institutional investors / advisory platform; some of these funds are accessible to retail at Fido but the institutional share class of these funds at Fido is very high ($1m?) compared to at Schwab
    Sometimes yes, sometimes no.
    AQR institutional class shares, e.g. QDSIX (an MFO Great Owl) are as you described - available only to institutions at Schwab and available for a seven figure min ($5M) at Fidelity.
    Allspring (formerly Wells Fargo) institutional class shares, e.g. WFMIX (another MFO Great Owl) are available only to institutions at Schwab but open to retail investors at Fidelity. In an IRA (and only in an IRA), Fidelity sets no min. One could buy $50 worth for $99.95 including TF.
    a CD of any bank that has the potential to be forced by regulators/ FDIC to be taken over by another bank, the acquiring bank is allowed to change the interest rate on the CD for the remaining time period prior to maturity - generally speaking.
    Yes, but. There is an out. If the rate is changed, the saver is allowed to get out without penalty. The risk is in having one's long term rate lock broken. A saver does not face an unexpected liquidity risk; in a sense just the opposite.
    https://www.fdic.gov/consumers/banking/facts/payment.html
    (See: How does a bank closing affect interest accruing on my deposits?)
    Circumstances change over time. When I was still employed and younger, I was rather aggressive investor, traded often, and used Wellstrade Brokerage, because I was given 100 free trades a year. When I retired, my wife and I moved to a smaller city, to be close to my children and grandchildren. With that move and retirement, I decided to transfer my brokerage assets to Fidelity--that was a good experience for me until Fidelity started eliminating many of the Institutional share class funds, and replacing them with a different share class. I was not pleased with that decision by Fidelity, and decided to switch from Fidelity to Schwab Brokerage, because Schwab was still offering those Institutional share class funds that Fidelity was closing. Schwab also incentivized me to make that brokerage transfer, by offering to reduce the Transaction Fees, for the Institutional share class funds, to only a fraction of the normal Transaction Fee. It was also helpful that only Schwab had a brokerage office in the small city we had moved to. That was especially comforting to my wife, knowing she could go to the Schwab office for assistance, if she outlived me. Of the 3 brokerages I have used, Schwab provided me the best overall menu of funds, best fund research tool, and the most institutional share class funds. When I cashed out of the market in 2022, I had such a large amount of cash that I was able to invest in SNAXX as the Money Market fund that paid the highest rate. SNAXX has been paying close over 5.4% for most of 2023, and some of 2024, but recently dropped to around 5.3%. I am willing to hold larger amounts of cash in SNAXX for liquidity reasons, and wait for the CDs in highly rated Banks. I did decide to transfer a large chunk of money out of Schwab in 2023, to my Capital One Bank account, because they were offering CDs at a 5.25% rate, and if I needed to sell those Bank CDs early, my penalty would be just 3 months of interest. I prefer Bank CDs over Brokerage CDs, for liquidity reasons, but I am at my maximum FDIC insured amount for Capital One.
  • Vanguard Website
    I gave Vanguard a chance too, but they said they would ignore all of our existing low cost basis stocks so I though that was a no go.
    Years ago I suggested to a friend what became Vanguard Personal Advisor Select. (At the time there was only one tier, with a $50K min.)
    Vanguard was good about preserving investments with large gains and only selling them off gradually over several years. It was a pleasant contrast to TIAA, where this person had watched as an "advisor" immediately sold off everything at the start.
    TIAA compounded the problem later by harvesting a loss in a taxable account while purchasing the same security in an IRA - thus generating a wash sale and permanently destroying the ability to declare the harvested loss.
    On the tax front, Vanguard seems to be doing okay. Someone else I know with them was told that an account had recently crossed the designated allocation ranges and Vanguard could rebalance. Given that this was in a taxable account and rebalancing would recognize gains, Vanguard provided the option of rebalancing or not.
    Maybe you just got hold of an inexperienced person at Vanguard or someone who was having a bad day.
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    To clarify, I fully agree that CP CD rates are compelling in relation to other FI options. I've Just Said No to bonds for the foreeseable future thanks to CP CD rates being well over my threshold to ditch bonds.
    Carving into the respective CP CD rates though:
    I find nothing compelling about a 1-yr CP CD rate of 5.45% when VMRXX is paying 5.29%. On a $100K investment, the difference over the 12-months is ($5,450-$5,290 or) $160 IF the MMkt rate holds steady for the full period. That piddly difference is not a compelling difference that would cause me (at least, and I trust manty others) to lock up $100K for a year, regardless of our age.
    To wit, with MMkt cash this year, instead of locking it up in a ST CP CD, I made three ST stock trades (documented on this forum in real time) on GOOGL (2) and NVDA and made some whopping ST gains. Proceeds went back into MMkt.
    Conversely, locking in a 5-yr CP CD rate of 4.70% IS compelling to me given my (at least, and I trust many others) notion that we won't be seeing anything near 4.70% rates in 2029 when the 5-yr CD matures. The same notion applies to a 3-yr CP CD rate of 4.90%.
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    Our own Lewis Braham just highlighted them in An article in Barron’s. Some excerpts:
    “ Despite the confusion, some of these funds are worthy diversifiers for a traditional fixed-allocation portfolio. The hard part is figuring out which ones, as their strategies can vary significantly. “The issue to me is ‘tactical’ means the portfolio changes,” says Michael Lowenberg, manager of Modern Capital Tactical Income  (ticker: MCTDX), which Morningstar categorizes as Moderate Allocation. That category generally includes funds with 50% to 70% in stocks and the remainder in bonds, but Lowenberg says, “Our portfolio is dramatically different” from a year ago when “fixed income wasn’t investible” as interest rates were rising and bonds falling.”
    “In early 2023, Lowenberg avoided most bonds, but today, now that he thinks the rate increases are over, his fund’s portfolio, as of March 31, was 53% in bonds and cash. Lowenberg’s aggressive shifts have paid off. In 2022, his fund was up 13.9%, with significant weightings in energy stocks and cash in an inflationary environment. Last year, the fund was up almost 18% as he gradually shifted more toward high-yield bonds and floating-rate debt.”
    “How do you analyze a fund like this when you don’t know what’s in its shifting portfolio? Morningstar categorizes only 80 mutual funds and 23 exchange-traded funds as Tactical Allocation, but if you include the word “tactical” in a fund screen, those numbers go up to 126 mutual funds and 50 ETFs. Some but not all of those correctly belong in non-tactical-allocation categories as they are shifting more between individual stock or bond sectors than entire asset classes.”
    “Compounding the confusion, some of the best tactical funds invest in closed-end funds, both to allocate their assets and to exploit deep price discounts to the closed-ends’ underlying portfolio values. When closed-end fund price discounts narrow, their share prices get bid up. That augments the tactical funds’ returns but also adds an extra layer of closed-end fund fees. Modern Tactical’s seemingly high 1.92% expense ratio actually masks that it charges a much more reasonable 0.60% management fee. There are additional fees charged by funds it holds, like Templeton Emerging Markets (EMF), which has a 1.47% expense ratio, but also trades at an attractive 15% discount.”
    “Modern Capital has an 0.86 three-year Sharpe ratio, higher than any fund in Morningstar’s Tactical Allocation category, followed by Saba Closed-End’s 0.44 and Matisse’s 0.39. Most funds in the category have negative Sharpes, indicating they aren’t rewarding investors enough for their risks.”
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    Sorry being late to this discussion. Our oversea exposure is about 7-8%, with mostly actively managed funds and ETFs. In taxable account, VEA and DIVI are the only one we use and they are tax efficient.
    1. For large cap developed market, ARTKX and FMIJX are the main vehicles.
    2. Lately CCGO was added to gain exposure to the “growth” stocks in Europe as BF mentioned the “Fantastic Five”. Capital fund does a good job so far managed the downside risk than that of Vanguard Int’l growth (we moved on when Ian Anderson retired).
    3. For EM exposure, we have 2% and it is getting smaller; largely invested in Seafarer funds with Andrew Foster and his teams.
    4. The only stake on int’l small caps we have is Seafarer EM Value.
    5. We continue to seek actively managed funds and ETFs with lower ER; preferable less than 1%.
    6. Back in the 80-90’s when US currency was less dominated to other currencies, many international funds often out-performed the US counter-parts. This has changed in the last 10 years as it reflects in our lowered exposure.
    7. In our 529 plan, Vanguard Total International stock index fund is used as part of the portfolio but we have limited choice there. Preferably, the Total Stock Market index would be better.
  • The Nightview Fund is in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587551/000158064224002932/nightviewfund_485a.htm
    Investment Objective
    The Nightview Fund (the “Fund”) seeks long-term capital appreciation, with a goal of outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index over a rolling five-year period.
  • Lebenthal Ultra Short Tax-Free Income Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1295908/000158064224002881/lebenthal_497.htm
    497 1 lebenthal_497.htm 497
    LEBENTHAL ULTRA SHORT TAX-FREE INCOME FUND
    A Series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust
    Supplement dated May 29, 2024, to the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2024
    Effective immediately, the Lebenthal Ultra Short Tax-Free Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”), has terminated the public offering of its shares and will discontinue its operations effective July 10, 2024. Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on July 10, 2024, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be redeemed at net asset value (the “Transaction”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), at the recommendation of the Fund’s investment advisor, DCM Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”), determined and approved by Written Consent of the Board on May 29, 2024 (the “Written Consent”), to discontinue the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Advisor’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Transaction, the Advisor will continue to waive investment advisory fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, if necessary, in order to maintain the Fund at its current expense limit, as specified in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Through the Written Consent, the Board directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than July 10, 2024; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on July 10, 2024, be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Transaction, the Fund’s portfolio holdings will be reduced to cash or cash equivalent securities. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objectives. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day prior to the Transaction. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “Redeeming Your Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to July 10, 2024, will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    Shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-888-484-5766.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Templeton International Climate Change Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/225930/000174177324002468/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    6316 P2 05/24
    TEMPLETON FUNDS
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 29, 2024
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION (“SAI”)
    EACH DATED JANUARY 1, 2024, OF
    TEMPLETON INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE FUND (THE “FUND”)
    On May 22, 2024, the Board of Trustees of Templeton Funds, on behalf of Templeton International Climate Change Fund (the “Fund”), approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. The liquidation is anticipated to occur on or about August 9, 2024 (Liquidation Date); however, the liquidation may occur sooner if at any time before the Liquidation Date there are no shares outstanding in the Fund. The liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
    At the close of market on July 2, 2024, the Fund will be closed to new investors, except as noted below. Existing investors who had an open and funded account on July 2, 2024 can continue to invest in the Fund through exchanges and additional purchases after such date. The following categories of investors may continue to open new accounts in the Fund after the close of market on July 2, 2024: (1) clients of discretionary investment allocation programs where such programs had investments in the Fund prior to the close of market on July 2, 2024, and (2) Employer Sponsored Retirement Plans or benefit plans and their participants where the Fund was available to participants prior to the close of market on July 2, 2024. The Fund will not accept any additional purchases after the close of market on or about August 7, 2024. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time.
    Shareholders of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will have their accounts liquidated and the proceeds will be delivered to them. For those shareholders with taxable accounts and for Federal, state and local income tax purposes: (a) any liquidation proceeds paid to such shareholder should generally be treated as received by such shareholder in exchange for the shareholder’s shares and the shareholder will therefore generally recognize a taxable gain or loss; (b) in connection with the liquidation, the Fund may declare taxable distributions of its income and/or capital gain; and (c) an exchange out of the Fund prior to the Liquidation Date may be considered a taxable transaction and such shareholders may recognize a gain or loss. Shareholders should consult
    their tax advisers regarding the effect of the Fund’s liquidation in light of their individual circumstances. Participants in an Employer Sponsored Retirement Plan that is a Fund shareholder should consult with their plan sponsor for further information regarding the impact of the liquidation. In considering new purchases or exchanges, shareholders may want to consult with their financial advisors to consider their investment options.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    BTW, I don't use RMD services at funds/brokerages. But I do subscribe to some for information only, not execution.
    I calculate my own RMDs and take them as regular withdrawals. When RMDs apply, the 1st withdrawals from T-IRA or 401k/403b are assumed to be RMDs anyway.
    I used to take RMDs early in January, but after the 2020 fiasco, I now take them in mid/late-year. This despite knowing that we won't see ad-hoc reversal of RMDs again in my lifetime.
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    From Barron's May 6, 2024,
    Frequent changes in the RMD rules are confusing. For tax-deferred accounts (T-IRA, 401k, 403b), the RMD age is 73 now (was 72 in 2023, 70.5 in 2020) and it will remain so until 2033. The RMD amount depends on the yearend balances, age-related IRS factor, and other factors such as marital status, very young spouse, beneficiaries. The 1st RMD can be delayed to April 1 of the following year but beware of the tax impact of double RMDs then. The RMD can be postponed if working. (There is a special 55.0-59.5 rule that avoids 10% penalty for premature withdrawals from a current 401k/403b; not so for old 401k/403b or T-IRA). The RMDs from T-IRAs can be aggregated and taken from any one T-IRA, and it’s similar for 403b, but not for 401k. There are different rules for inherited accounts for spouses, nonspouses, trusts, and whether the deceased had started taking the RMDs. The QCDs are allowed from T-IRAs. The Roth IRAs no longer require RMDs. (R-IRA rules are simple in retirement if 5 years beyond Roth Conversions, but nightmarish otherwise.)
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    @shipwreckedandalone, the article had several good points.
    Quote: "By highlighting the “full market cycle” as the right period for judgment, they’re reminding investors that over shorter spans within the cycle they’ll look,"
    FD: is now the start of the market cycle? Is it a good choice to start in the middle?
    Full market cycle also means you must stay in the fund for many years to get the benefit of this fund....and now we get to the second problem
    Quote: "Since most investors have limited patience, most absolute value investors have limited careers."
    FD: can you stay long term in this fund? probably not, Cinnamond never managed the same fund for 15-20 years. His record shows 5 and 6 years, he is already in his fifth year at PVCMX. Since the fund has so much cash, it's obvious Cinnamond can't find valuable stocks, he may quit soon. In 2016 he said "Mr. Cinnamond recommended return of capital to his investors, noting that the market was fundamentally hostile to his investment style and that he was unwilling to charge investors “equity fund prices” while sitting at 90% cash."
    ==========
    Do I think this fund can serve a goal?
    Absolutely, if you are a retiree who has enough and just needs 6-7% with lower SD, go for it. This is where I am, but I use bond funds for that and do my own timing going to cash. On the other hand, a fund like RSIIX may generate 6-7% with lower SD but you can own it for years. MM have been paying over 5% for months now.
    How strong are you going to be in years when the fund is lagging badly...2021 PVCMX made 3.2% per M* same category made over 31%.
    Another idea...use it instead of VWIAX. The problem again is the fact I can own VWIAX for the next 30 years.
    Another idea...it can be a good choice for someone EXPLORE portion.
    Trade it? not a bad idea, but if you are a good trader you can do better or you know when to use it.
    Lastly, another problem is when many investors like to mention funds that have done well in the last several years and start using them when markets start to take off or avoid stocks for years.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    I like PVCMX. Lets look at the entire picture since 5/1/2019: M* 5 star fund.
    PVCMX CAGR 7.44% VIOO 7.86%
    PVMCX MDraw -6.45% VIOO -42.37%
    PVCMX SD 5.85% VIOO 26.92%
    PVCMX Sharpe .86 VIOO .20
    PVCMX Ulcer 1.28 VIOO 13.87
    PVCMX achieved comparable upside with substantially less volatility and downside.
    IJS metrics is similar to VIOO with less CAGR than PVCMX.
    Read David's MFO review:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/07/launch-alert-palm-valley-capital-fund-pvcmx/
    Also see 9/2020 MFO update.
    I am amazed adults cannot understand there is a different tool for different objectives.
    Every person has a right to their own objective with their own tool with their own money.
    There is no right or wrong.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    To revert to the title fund of this thread, below is the fund's performance, taken from its quarterly reports, which are available its website
    https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/fundcommentary
    and are separate from Cinnamond's occasional other comments
    https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/commentary.
    The fund commentaries report overall return, its cash percentage, the performance of its equities and the performance of the two small cap benchmarks it uses. In the five years since inception it has underperformed its benchmarks by less than its expense ratio, while providing a smoother ride. One might consider 20% of the fund as part of one's small cap apportionment and 80% as part of one's (attached, so not liquid) cash apportionment.

    PVCMX's PVCMX's PVCMX's S&P SmCap M* SmCap
    Overall Percent Equity 600 Index Tot Retn
    Quarter Return Cash Return Return Index
    ------- ------- ------- ------- --------- --------
    2019 Q2 0.70% 91.8% Absent -1.93% -1.35%
    2019 Q3 0.50 92.9 > BMks -0.20 -1.81
    2019 Q4 0.22 92.4 Absent 8.20 8.67
    2020 Q1 0.79 52.0 Absent -32.65 -31.61
    2020 Q2 10.74 72.5 27.3% 21.94 25.47
    2020 Q3 0.89 70 ~=BMks 3.17 4.90
    2020 Q4 5.78 Absent 22.14% 31.27 29.29
    2021 Q1 3.60 80 19.10 18.23 11.62
    2021 Q2 1.16 81.4 6.94 4.50 4.23
    2021 Q3 -1.06 79.8 -3.40 -2.85 -3.67
    2021 Q4 0.04 79 1.34 5.59 3.72
    2022 Q1 1.94 80 10.85 -5.64 -6.18
    2022 Q2 -0.74 75.8 -3.22 -14.13 -16.44
    2022 Q3 -1.83 76.6 -8.66 -5.20 -3.75
    2022 Q4 3.86 78.9 15.36 9.19 8.05
    2023 Q1 3.01 79 12.2 2.57 4.90
    2023 Q2 1.62 82 4.78 3.38 5.60
    2023 Q3 0.56 81 -0.78 -4.93 -4.56
    2023 Q4 4.00 77.7 14.25 15.12 14.07
    2024 Q1 1.04 81.9 2.11 2.46 5.69
    Since
    Inception 7.55 8.47 8.31
    (04/30/19)
  • TestFol.io - Free Portfolio Analytics
    excellent. is maxdraw daily or month end?
    Drawdown seems based on daily data. Here is the run for 2020 only to see more details of the credit freeze then,
    https://tinyurl.com/yc5rumev
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.

    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
    Description reads like a credit fund and not a hybrid allocation fund. May be the hybrid is public- private credit hybrid?
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.

    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
    Yup. I didn't like the (then) 10-15% Blackstone Black Box they were promoting in RPGAX. I was interested in the fund to compliment PRWCX but I like knowing what I own!
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    The following proves that PVCMX is not an absolute return fund, see (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absolutereturn.asp)
    Quote "an absolute return fund seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds. Absolute return investment strategies include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage, and unconventional assets. Absolute returns are examined separately from any other performance measure, so only gains or losses on the investment are considered."
    The manager uses his unique strategy which depends mainly on owning cash equivalent positions when he can't find stocks that meet his criteria. I call it timing the markets.
    JD, since retirement in 2018, I hardly owned stock funds. I'm mainly a bond OEFs trader. In extreme market risk, I'm at 99+% in MM.
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.
    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.