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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • I think we knew it was just a matter of time....
    I took notice toward the end of the day. I have no tv anymore. (Comcast does it with dead porcupines.) And I moved on. No changes. Yesterday, I threw some money in the mail at SFGIX.
  • Bond Fund Strategy Now
    Took profit in PRDSX and put it into PREMX (EM bonds, mostly hard-currency, dollars, but I guess not exclusively?) It was just a sliver. I figured monthly dividends will be shrinking, though I don't see anything drastic happening. So adding a bit now is my attempt to compensate: more shares = bigger dividend, as per-share div. drops. And for what it's worth, I brought down my cost-basis by a fraction. ...I sold out of MSCFX and put it all into MAPOX, which is holding over 30% bonds these days, too. But I didn't make that move with the bonds in mind. But my quarterly div. from MAPOX ought to rise, too. My entire portf. =37% bonds of all sorts, now. My other dedicated bond fund is PRSNX, world bonds. Also for slow-growth and dividends, I'm building my holding in elec. utility, PNM. And SFGIX will be growing this year, I've made up my mind on that. It pays just in June and December. (PNM and SFGIX are my only two holdings not in tax-sheltered accounts.)
  • Looking for less volatile Intl fund alternative to OAKIX
    ...."international funds with a strong long term track record but smaller downside risk?"
    SFGIX is the favorite here on MFO.
    PRIDX invests in small/mid-caps overseas.
    Look at TBGVX Tweedy Browne, but unless it's changed, it hedges back to the dollar. The dollar is getting beat up, in 2017 and into 2018.
    (I own the first 2 that I just listed.)
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Point taken, Hank. And as for EM stocks, I'll stick with SFGIX, despite my previous grousing.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    You've had lots of great comments. I'll just add, I like owning a global fund to accent my International and EM funds. Not to take their place, Personally I wouldn't substitute the global fund for Int./EM.
    FWIW, I own SGENX (L cap) and GPGOX (S cap) in the global space, basically letting good management choose the weighting. But I still own FMIJX and SFGIX to have solid buy and hold Int./EM exposure.
    Good luck with your decision.
  • Fund Navigator
    Hi, Ron.
    The Navigator just aims people at (mostly) external pages. Is the problem that you're getting 404 - page not found errors or external pages that seem stale? I used Seafarer as an example and clicked through all the links. USA Today and US News were both 404s, and Chip is working to solve that. None of the working pages contained stale data.
    The two internal links - to the discussion board and commentary - both worked fine, though the most recent profile of SFGIX is 2015. That reflects the fact that Andrew's fund has gone beyond our universe (small, new, undiscovered), closed, and earned Morningstar recognition.
    If you could give an example of the difficulty you experienced, we'll try to make it right.
    As ever,
    David
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    I added to TDVFX and swapped half of my SFGIX for SIVLX. I like value, by temperament, and I also subscribe to the buy-a-newer-fund-from-a-great-shop theory. I'm pondering buying a little OSTIX. All this in tax-deferred, where I'm trying to concentrate my active mutual funds.
    I'm keeping my cash & ultra-short bonds steady at about 20%. (I had a good year on non-investment earnings, so can add to equities & keep cash levels steady.)
    I've been pondering VWAHX in my taxable account, since it seems like such a fabulous fund, but its relatively long duration makes me nervous. Everyone's predicting a gradual rise in interest rates, but I think this tax bill is going to blow up the deficit sooner rather than later, so we could see rates spike.
  • Dukester's Fund Corner III
    Also what do you think of Matthews? I used to own 2 of their funds. Now, none. I now think of them as overpriced and under achieving. Just me saying.....
    If someone wants to weight the Asian region on their own, I personally think Matthews funds are the best way to do that. I own SFGIX though, which has a heavy dose of Asia, both developed and EM. GPGOX also is quite heavy Asia. In fact, M* xray has my portfolio over-weight Asia in the foreign sector. These fund managers are a bit smarter then me, so I don't think I need a sector or region fund. To me it dilutes their (my fund managers) expertise. Hell, that's why I'm paying them. :)
    All that (regional weighting) said though, I am strongly considering combining my percentage in DSENX fund with DLEUX to get a bit more of the CAPE value theme with developed European. Same process, more value(?) That's my thinking anyway.
  • Dukester's Fund Corner III
    Hi MikeM,
    Have owned ICMBX. Did Eric run this....I forget. Also ownedGTLOX....a casualty of downsizing. Also have FMIJX.
    These guys.....if they ever stop being bears, I will know we are in the heart of a recession or depression. Also own PONDX. Can somebody please explain to me what they do? It's the only fund I own that I don't understand.
    SFGIX.....why don't I own this fund? I've asked myself this more than once. I, too, have cut back on bonds. We all know why. As far as retirement, MikeM, it's beautiful. Do it! No stress. No problems and ..... it's always 5:00 somewhere, Bro! LOL
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. BABA - good job!
    Also what do you think of Matthews? I used to own 2 of their funds. Now, none. I now think of them as overpriced and under achieving. Just me saying.....
    p.s.s.
    You aren't responsible for American Airlines' problems, are you? With whoops.......see CNBC.com.
  • Dukester's Fund Corner III
    Ok. I'll post my self managed portfolio.
    But FWIW, I have 1/2 my retirement savings in a Schwab robo-portfolio, which is about 62% equity, 28% bonds and 10% cash. As of 11/24, the robo has returned 13.3% YTD. The percentage is based on $ amounts from 1/1 to 11/24. Up to others to judge if that is good or bad, but I'm happy with the the robo so far. I tend to be too conservative some times and the robo helps not over-think everything.
    The self managed portfolio is less aggressive. Most of it has been pretty steady, fund/percentage wise, but I like to play with stocks with a small part of the total and my stocks have changed over the year. I also have adjusted and re-adjusted the bond funds a couple of times. Not sure why I don't just put all the bond allocation in PONDX and be done with it. But what fun is that?
    M* instant xray shows the self managed portfolio percentages to be:
    CASH 17
    U.S. STOCK 21
    FOREIGN STOCK 22
    BONDS 34
    OTHER 7
    The self managed, which has consistently been conservative at about 40-45% equity, has returned 12.1% YTD. I think that is pretty good. Again, that's based on real dollars, not M* calculated.
    the self managed portfolio consists of:
    EQUITY and BALANCED FUNDS:
    PRWCX Allocation--50% to 70% Lcap
    ICMBX Allocation--50% to 70% Scap
    DSENX LV- unfavored S&P500 sectors
    GTLOX Lcap Blend
    GPGOX World Stock
    SGENX World Allocation
    FMIJX Foreign LC Blend
    SFGIX Diversified Emerging Mkts
    BOND FUNDS:
    MAINX Asia Centrix Bond Fund
    PGMSX TRP Global Multi-Sector
    PFIDX Low Duration floating Income
    PONDX Multisector Bond
    Individual Stocks:
    V Visa
    VLO Valero Energy
    BABA Alibaba
    QCP Quality Care Properties
    I do think I own to many bond funds. I'll likely cut back. I also plan to move some money from DSENX to DLEUX. I think Europe may have better value and that is what these 2 funds are all about.
    For the record, I will be 64 in 2018 and plan to retire from full time work. I'll likely work part time because I get bored easy. I have been doing a lot of thinking, setting up spreadsheets and reading about setting myself up for withdrawals. Looking forward to more discussions on that theme.
  • The Dukester's Fund Corner II
    Hi everyone, I'm 49 for another month or so and I have 5 kids ranging in age from 2 to 17. They have 529 plans that will hopefully cover a decent portion of college costs and I keep contributing, although the youngest 2 could be worse off if the cost of education continues rising faster than inflation. I've basically been retired for almost 6 years because I took a nice package to walk away from my job in a downsizing and didn't find something new, but I'm still interested in going back to work for a decent opportunity.
    I have a couple of overriding principles for my portfolio that will help explain some of my allocations. First, I believe that emerging markets, especially in Asia, are the future. I want to be overweight. I'm also a believer in healthcare. Considering the world's demographics are getting older and the developed world's demographics even more so, I want to be overweight. In general I want to be equal weight the US and underweight developed international markets because the demographics are the worst there and they are pretty highly correlated with the US in the large cap space. If I want to make currency bets, which I've done before, I'd rather do it in the futures market. I want most of my exposure to developed international markets to be small cap. Finally, other than healthcare, I'm generally sector agnostic. I don't target any specific allocations but I do monitor them compared to the S&P 500 to make sure I know and am comfortable with the opinions my sector allocations are expressing.
    My portfolio currently has two parts and a third part is being reduced. The first is a collection of funds that I rebalance or adjust at irregular intervals but mostly doesn't change. The second is what I'd call a modified risk parity portfolio of my own making that trades monthly based mostly on momentum. The part being reduced is made up of individual stocks that I picked based on a newsletter I used to subscribe to or stocks that M* identified as undervalued. That didn't work very well for me. The stocks currently represent about 12.5%. I plan to keep 2 stocks, which are uranium stocks that I'm still comfortable/happy with. They make up 6% of my portfolio and will stay, so a little less than half of my total stocks.
    I normally don't count cash as part of my portfolio except in my IRA and the cash there represents 3% of what I consider my portfolio.
    Mutual funds
    I'll indicate the current allocation as well as my planned allocation once I eliminate the stocks I hold with a comment or two where relevant.
    GPIIX 9.65--->8.5 I would have preferred Global Opportunities to International Opportunities but the original intention was to pair International with their intended US fund, which hasn't come yet, and to manage the allocation myself. At the time I wasn't thinking about hard closes that make managing an allocation difficult so if I ever had the chance to switch this for GPGIX I would.
    POAGX 8.75--->8.5
    GPEIX 7.75--->8.5
    SBIO 3--->2
    HQL 2.9--->2
    OBIOX 2.75--->3.5
    MAPIX 2.5--->2
    PRHSX 2.25--->2
    IWIRX 2.15--->2
    MEASX 1.6--->2
    QUSOX 1.45--->2
    ARTGX 1.4--->0 I don't dislike the fund, just decided I'd prefer OAKWX
    MSCFX 1.4--->2
    OAKWX 1.35--->2
    PRNHX 1.35--->2
    TVRVX 1.3--->2
    DSEEX 1.3--->2
    PTSGX 1.3--->1
    SFGIX 1.3--->2
    FSCRX 1.25--->0 This fund was great for me but with Chuck Myers leaving I started switching to the Mairs & Power fund.
    KGGAX 1.2--->2
    GPMCX 0.8--->2 This won't happen by year-end because of the limited annual contributions they allow but I'll get there.
    Trading
    The holdings currently make up 25.7% of my portfolio and includes EWX, IJH, IJK and VBR. I expect it will be 34% at year-end. I started this approach 18 months ago because I was concerned about valuations and wanted something that would hopefully protect me when things eventually go south but hopefully participate in most of the upside as long as it continues.
    I track my overall portfolio as well as each "bucket" against 12 benchmarks on a monthly basis. Broadly speaking those benchmarks include a few all equity options (like the S&P 500 and a total world etf), a few balanced options that are all 60/40 but with different equity options, and a few risk parity portfolios like @hank's Permanent Portfolio, Faber's Ivy Portfolio and David Swenson's Yale portfolio.
    For the individual funds I mostly watch category rankings. I do see 1, 3, 5 and 10 year returns in my M* portfolio but I don't use them to make any decisions. I don't change funds very much but manager changes usually worry me and I occasionally change for something I believe will be better. For instance, I used to hold a number of Wasatch funds that I eliminated and bought Grandeur Peak funds and I'm replacing FSCRX with MSCFX because of a manager change.
    There are a few funds I'd be happy to own if they open again one day. They are VVPSX and TDVFX. I know I can buy the Towle Fund direct and I may do that at some point but I'd prefer to keep it in my brokerage account if possible. As mentioned I'll buy Grandeur Peak's US fund whenever it launches.
    A portfolio X-ray will show you that I'm around 80% small and mid cap stocks. I understand most people would be uncomfortable with that. One third of that is the risk parity trading I do and that will be into other asset classes when the momentum changes. Nonetheless, I've never been uncomfortable with volatility and I don't tend to make emotional decisions. The risk parity idea was specifically designed to make me comfortable with whatever volatility occurs in the mutual funds. X-ray will also show I'm a little more than 20% emerging markets and overweight healthcare but I'll be pretty close to equal weight healthcare at year-end. This is something I want to keep an eye on because I don't want to end up underweight healthcare. I'm actually underweight the US at about 43-44% but that's okay for now because I'm somewhat, less than many but still somewhat concerned about valuations in the US. And I'm significantly underweight developed international markets except for Asia. I think that's mostly because M* calls Taiwan and South Korea developed while MSCI doesn't.
    Oh, one last thing, how could I forget, I have no bonds and haven't for a few years. Friends have argued that I either should already regret that or I certainly will in the future. They may be right but I'm well aware of the bet I'm making and I'm more concerned now about getting hurt in bonds than hurt in equities. Time will tell.
    Thanks in advance for your feedback.
    Jim
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    Which SINGLE fund? My PRWCX is my call, but let me also mention my MAPOX, for the quarterly dividends--- which is going to mean more and more to me, going forward. These hypothetical answers to the original question are due to a naturally prudent approach, assuming all monies end-up in ONE fund. If I were also granted just one choice to add a foreign element to the portfolio, it would be PRIDX. And I suppose I'd go 70% domestic and 30% foreign. (Right now, though, I'm only 11% in foreign equities.)
    My current equity allocation:
    LCV 20.41
    LCG30.55
    Smid-value 20.44
    Smid growth 28.60
    My current foreign equity funds: SFGIX and PRIDX.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Guest: Rupal Bhansali, Ariel & Andrew Foster, Seafarer Funds
    FYI: (The Video Clip turned out to be the actual episode. I think someone at WealthTrack goofed.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    October 12, 2017
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    WEALTHTRACK has been promoting the benefits of global investing since our launch in 2005. The reasons are pretty obvious. More than 95% percent of the world’s population lives outside of the United States. 76% percent of the world’s goods and services are produced in other countries.
    Yes, the U.S. economy is the largest contributor to global GDP, accounting for nearly 25% of the world’s $74 trillion economy, but others are moving up. China accounts for about 15% of global GDP, having eclipsed Japan as the world’s second largest economy several years ago. Japan’s GDP footprint is now lagging at around 6%.
    As far as future drivers of world growth, the U.S. is still a major force but other countries are growing faster. Estimates are that China will generate 35% of the world’s real economic growth, that’s excluding the effects of inflation, during the next three years. The U.S. is projected to contribute about 18% of additional growth, followed by India’s nearly 9%, the Eurozone’s 8% and surprisingly, Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, is predicted to be the fifth largest driver, followed quickly by South Korea, Australia, Canada, the UK, Japan and Brazil.
    These are estimates, but you get the point. There is substantial additional economic power coming from other countries. Given these global realities should U.S. investors with their well-known and understandable home bias increase their foreign exposure? If so when and where?
    This week’s WEALTHTRACK guests are both successful global investors with a specialty in international markets. We’ll be joined by Rupal Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer of International and Global Equities for Ariel Investments. She is also Portfolio Manager of two top rated funds which she launched there in 2011. The 5-star rated Ariel International Fund is ranked in the top 10% of its Morningstar Foreign Large Value category with its over 9% annualized returns over the last five years. The 4-star rated Ariel Global Fund is in the top third of its World Large Stock category with 11% annualized returns during the same period.
    We’ll also hear from Andrew Foster, Founder, Chief Investment Officer and Lead Portfolio Manager of Seafarer Capital Partners, which he started in 2011. In 2012 he launched his flagship Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund which is focused on foreign markets, especially in the developing world. It carries a Morningstar silver medalist ranking and a 4-star rating for its performance and shareholder friendly management. It is in the top 20% of its Diversified Emerging Market category with nearly seven percent annualized returns over the five- year period. Before launching Seafarer, Foster spent several years as a Portfolio Manager and Director of Research at Asia mutual fund pioneer Matthews Asia.
    I began the conversation with the question: how compelling are the investment opportunities overseas?
    As always, if you miss the show on Public Television, you can watch it at your convenience on our website. You’ll also find my weekly Action Points there, plus our guests’ “One Investment” ideas. Also, you’ll find our web exclusive EXTRA interviews with Bhansali and Foster there.
    If you would like to take WEALTHTRACK with you on your commute or travels, you can now find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on TuneIn, Stitcher, and SoundCloud, as well as iTunes. Find out more on the WEALTHTRACK Podcast page.
    Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo

    M* Snapshot AINTX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/AINTX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot AINTX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/aintx
    AINTX Is Unranked In The (FLCV) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/foreign-large-value/ariel-international-fund/aintx
    M* Snapshot AGLOX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/AGLOX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot AGLOX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/aglox
    AGLOX Is Unranked In The (WS) Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-stock/ariel-global-fund/aglox
    M* Snapshot SFGIX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/SFGIX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot SFGIX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sfgix
    SFGIX Is Unranked In The (DEM ) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/diversified-emerging-mkts/seafarer-overseas-growth-and-income-fund/sfgix
  • Overall portfolio analysis, with surprises, mistakes and moves that seemed to work
    @slick: Fantastic post!! I've always appreciated @Old_Skeet's discussion of his portfolio and sleeve system and this is right up there.
    I have 22 funds and 16 stocks plus the cash in funds and that I hold in my IRA. I won't comment on the stocks except to say I should stick to funds and I'm glad I'm headed in that direction. Like you and others, I check performance but I tend to focus on slightly different things. I view the returns as a reflection of my asset allocation decisions and prefer category rankings when reviewing funds because the results can differ. For instance, 12 of my 22 funds have greater than 20% returns with 3 of those over 30%. Another 7 had returns greater than 10% and only 3 were between 0-10%. However, only 7 of my 22 funds are top decile in their category, 2 more are top quartile, 7 more are top half and 6 are doing pretty lousy with 5 of the 6 in the bottom decile of their category.
    My 3 largest positions are 7-10% positions in my portfolio and their rankings are GPIIX at 40, POAGX at 24 and GPEIX at 90 (ugh!). If I screen out large cap emerging markets funds GP isn't doing much better but I'm a believer and the longer term record is still good so I'm not even close to thinking about giving up.
    I'm overweight healthcare at 16.6% of my portfolio and that's been working really well especially with my 3 healthcare funds (HQL, SBIO and PRHSX) ranked top 1%, 8% and 32%, respectively. Half of my healthcare exposure is within other funds or a couple of the stocks but being overweight has helped a lot this year.
    I'm also overweight emerging markets at 15.7% of my portfolio but while that should make me a big winner this year, all 3 specific EM funds I own (GPEIX, SFGIX, MEASX) are having tough years. Like with healthcare I'm getting exposure from other funds as well, some of which are having great years, but I feel like EM has been a disappointment.
    I've had no bonds for years, often to my hindsight's regret, but I count cash in my IRA as an investment decision. Together with the cash in funds I own it's 15% of my portfolio and has been since the beginning of the year in rough terms. Overall, my returns on the 85% invested are very close to the S&P but considering my overweights to healthcare and EM should both be helping as well as getting a currency benefit from a 50/50 split between domestic and international investments, I would have hoped to be having a better year. Which brings me back to stocks...
  • Overall portfolio analysis, with surprises, mistakes and moves that seemed to work
    I use all actively managed funds, apart from wife's 403b, in Vanguard's small-cap index fund, VSCIX (but administered through MassMutual: fees, fees, fees. Still, at least the fund's ER is miniscule. It seems like everywhere you look, employer-sponsored 401k and 403b just suck, due to not enough choices available, or only bad ones. VSCIX has done well for us, though.) My two anchors remain balanced funds, PRWCX--- over one-third of entire portf. And MAPOX, at 15.81% of portf. The Morningstar X-Ray shows me where I want to be. I'd be approx. 60/40 stocks/bonds, if it were not for the cash held by the fund managers, so the mix comes up as:
    US equity 44%
    Foreign equity: 11
    Bonds of all sorts: 35
    "other" 2
    CASH: 8
    PRWCX has been my best decision, since I started investing in 2002. I'm 63, just started taking SS. MAPOX is lagging its category THIS year, but I DO like the longer-term numbers. Also own small-cap MSCFX, in the same fund family. My (TRP) PRDSX is doing much better than MSCFX this year. But PRDSX is a "quant" fund.
    I make my moves generally after the New Year, when all cap gains and distributions have been made. PRIDX is on fire, this year, so far. Glad I got into it, in early 2016.
    PTIAX will be added, for the hefty monthly pay-outs, as soon as I can do it. And I'm still riding a single-stock position through DSPP: PNM. I took profit a little while ago. We're doing a bunch of traveling, this year and next. But I plan to continue dollar-cost-averaging into PNM again, and also want to add BMTC (Bryn Mawr Trust) through DSPP, too.
    SFGIX has disappointed, but it's SUPPOSED to be rather conservatively run, in that riskier EM slot. It's Just 2.42% of portf. at this point.
    When it comes to investing wisely, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
    "Horse To The Water." From "Concert For George:" 2002. Royal Albert Hall, 1 year after G. Harrison's death. Song co-written by George Harrison and his son, Dhani Harrison. Dhani appears stage-right to Sam(antha?) Brown, who's singing. Looks just like the old man, eh? ENJOY!

  • SFGIX and MAPIX
    I invest in MAPIX, and not SFGIX. Unlike Ted, I won't whip you with a wet noodle for holding both funds.
    In looking at the top 25 holdings of each fund as reported in Morningstar, I don't see that much overlap by security. How did you determine that there is appreciable overlap?
    Hi Maurice, I was looking at region-specific holdings only, not specific securities.
  • SFGIX and MAPIX
    I do hold them both. My MACSX holding followed Foster to SFGIX and when MSMLX disappointed, my small cap money went to Grandeur Peak. Decided to keep a fairly small position in MAPIX. It's a solid fund and my only Matthews position.
  • SFGIX and MAPIX
    Based on M*'s X-ray tool I believe I could look at very close to if not all of the combined holdings. They appear to share 3 common investments- Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg and Fuyao Glass Industry Group. These holdings represent 7.57% of SFGIX and 5.8% of MAPIX. As Maurice rightly pointed out I don't think I'd be too concerned about the overlap.
  • SFGIX and MAPIX
    I hold both, MAPIX partly because I've held it for a long time and it's done well for me and partly because I don't have much exposure to Japan in other holdings. I hold SFGIX as my larger cap emerging markets fund and GPEOX as my small cap EM fund. I'm happy to hold all 3 to benefit from their specific expertise even if that sometimes leads them to the same place.
  • SFGIX and MAPIX
    In your opinion, does it make sense to hold both funds? There seems to be some overlap with the predominantly Asia holdings, and both do hold emerging markets (SFGIX has a higher %). The differences appear to be the Japan (MAPIX) and Latin America (SFGIX) holdings. Thoughts?