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Looking at these broader picture numbers, it seems not so much that BRSVX benefited from one hot year, but rather that it doesn't do quite so well in down years. Comparing the BRSVX with AVALX not by a calendar year (i.e. 2020), but trough to peak (roughly 3/19/20 - 6/4/21), one sees similar performance though following different paths.
Period CAGR Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX
15 yr 11.02% 5.54% 9.51% 28.77% 10.78% 22.81% 0.75 0.69 0.72
Full Cycle 2007-2020
6.81% 4.59% 5.24% 28.18% 10.20% 21.97% 0.35 0.41 0.30
Down Cycle 2007-2009
-5.09% 2.65% -9.59% 36.83% 11.35% 28.03% -0.01 0.11 -0.37
The main reason I started small positions in GRID in our IRA's and taxables.these utilities need to spend a lot of money to basically harden their grids from storms, from fire that we saw, obviously, what happened to Hawaiian Electric. And so, that’s really driving a really powerful capital-expenditures cycle.
- Investors have been chronically underweight Japan for the past three decades, and rightly so given Japan’s weaker relative fundamentals and underwhelming commitment to corporate reform through much of the 1990s and 2000s.
- But conditions on the ground have changed meaningfully. Improving fundamentals and governance reforms are increasingly evident to investors speaking directly with companies and policymakers in Japan, as our Usonian Japan Equity team does. EPS growth has been relatively strong in Japan for years, distributions of excess capital have increased, and policymakers continue to push for more competitive and capital-efficient companies.
- Nonetheless, most international equity strategies remain materially underweight Japanese equities. Of 225 actively managed strategies in the eVestment database that list the MSCI EAFE index as their preferred benchmark, 84% are underweight Japan by an average of 7.5%. (GMO, "Japan Equities Are Compelling…" 10/4/2023)
GMO runs a couple Japan-value strategies.
Japan is rockin' this year. The New York Times agrees that changes in corporate governance are driving the strong returns ("Investors Are Putting Big Money Into Japan Again. Here’s Why," 6/14/2023). The counterargument, at least according to my newsfeed, to GMO is that the gains are all driven by currency fluctuations. (Not my argument, and I haven't looked at the evidence behind it. I'm just reporting a headline I read yesterday). That said, the top three Japan-oriented funds over the past 10 are all ETFs, all hedged and all doing fine this year. Per MFO Premium:Hennessy Japan Small Cap is the first actively managed fund on the 10-year list, at #4.
- WisdomTree Japan Hedged SmallCap: 14.4% APR for 10 years, 26% YTD, five star, Bronze analyst rating, highest Sharpe ratio, smallest drawdown,
- WisdomTree Japan Hedged: 11.1% APR, 33% YTD, Great Owl, five star, Bronze analyst rating, tied for #2 in Sharpe
- Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF: 10.3% APR, Great Owl, four star, Silver analyst rating, tied for #2 in Sharpe
For what interest it holds, David
https://fidelityca.com/non-recourse-loan-financing/WHERE ARE NON-RECOURSE LOANS USED?
These loans are often used to finance commercial real estate projects and other projects that include an extended completion period. In the case of real estate, the land acts as collateral for the loan. A non-recourse loan is also used in financial industries, with securities placed as collateral.
HOW DO I QUALIFY FOR NON-RECOURSE LOANS?
Clearly, the majority of the risk and exposure with non-recourse loans rests with the lender. Therefore, a non-recourse loan may be more difficult to qualify for than a recourse loan. Commercial lenders will often only extend non-recourse loans to finance certain types of properties and only to worthy borrowers. Stable finances and an excellent credit score are two of the most important factors that a lender will look at. Generally, the loan requires the property to be a larger city, be in good condition, and have good historical financials, too.
https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/jleg/vol42/iss2/2/Non-recourse loans are a unique characteristic of the US mortgage market and first emerged in state legislation in the 1930s. A decrease in demand for real estate and the ensuing precipitous drop in prices during the Great Depression led to the realization of mortgages at minimal prices, significantly below their outstanding balances. As a result, not only did borrowers lose the roofs over their heads to lenders but also faced lawsuits by the same lenders for the significant remainder of their debt. This harsh reality caused many states to adopt borrower-friendly legislation. ... In effect it gave the borrower a put option
@ Crash,https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61478/how-would-you-invest-100-000-right-now/p2as of September 9th, @junkster said ,
I trade only bond funds because of their persistency of trend combined with their lack of volatility. There are exceptions, but since 2000 there has always been a bond category that has beaten the S@P annually. Of course those exceptions are pretty glaring ala 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and so far this year. So with an extra $100,000 would just add it to the bond category that is far ahead of the bond pack this year. That would be bank loans/floating rate which I have mentioned previously, Some are already ahead double digits YTD. Aside of March they have been as steady a trender as you could want. They are massively overbought, ripe for a correction, and with fears of rising defaults. But, ( and I have to continually remind myself of this) overbought in Bondland can stay overbought for long periods of time. Then again, this wouldn’t be an investment just a trade. Investment is a foreign term to me. I think the only time I was ever in a position since the 1990s for more than four to six months was in IOFIX in 2020/2021.
——Also he mentioned few weeks later that he sold 1/3 of bank loan/ floating rate bond.———-
The quick rise rise of 10 year treasury yield has impact all bonds. I notice the short term junk bonds have peaked and falling too this week. YTD they were the few pockets of bonds that were up high single digit return. High yield corporate bonds such as TUHYX did well YTD and they also started falling last week. Is this déjà vu again of the brutal 2022 among bonds?
So what are your plan?
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61478/how-would-you-invest-100-000-right-now/p2as of September 9th, @junkster said ,
I trade only bond funds because of their persistency of trend combined with their lack of volatility. There are exceptions, but since 2000 there has always been a bond category that has beaten the S@P annually. Of course those exceptions are pretty glaring ala 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and so far this year. So with an extra $100,000 would just add it to the bond category that is far ahead of the bond pack this year. That would be bank loans/floating rate which I have mentioned previously, Some are already ahead double digits YTD. Aside of March they have been as steady a trender as you could want. They are massively overbought, ripe for a correction, and with fears of rising defaults. But, ( and I have to continually remind myself of this) overbought in Bondland can stay overbought for long periods of time. Then again, this wouldn’t be an investment just a trade. Investment is a foreign term to me. I think the only time I was ever in a position since the 1990s for more than four to six months was in IOFIX in 2020/2021.
20y is almost for sure past my expiry date, but I wouldn't be buying it to hold to maturity. That's what I meant by a capital gain opp. I doubt I'll buy in, tho, unless it moves even higher.The 20y is a pretty interesting outlier at 5%. Bought at that rate, could be a future cap gain opportunity.
I doubt if I will live 20 more years, but it’s good to be optimistic.
Summary Prospectus, 2014Liquidity Risk. Liquidity risk exists when particular investments are difficult to sell. The Fund may not be able to sell these investments at the best prices or at the value the Fund places on them. Investments in private debt instruments, restricted securities, and securities having substantial market and/or credit risk may involve greater liquidity risk.
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