A very quick look shows that
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.

but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.

I have been saying the following over 15 years in all the sites I post.
All my posts are generic, without any connection to what and how I invest, unless I specially discuss my system.
The big picture is another generic comment.
I make comments on CEFs and never owned them more than short term.
I posted for years about retirement, LTC, when to take SS when I was younger.
Is your view that you can only have an opinion based on what you own or do?
So, what would I do specifically with my portfolio? I would be invested at 99% regardless if I have stocks or bonds. I have used stocks for decades.
You can disregard all my opinions but why trash it based on no real data.

I am apart of a small group of people I got my business degree with. We largely talk investing and there was a big ARKK proponent in the crowd so to speak. So much so I got in May 2020 but got out mid 2021 when I wanted to move stuff around and largely because she was on CNBC all the time, had become basically a rockstar as you've all mentioned. I didn't like it. something felt off. timing worked well for me and it was in a play account, not in any long term accounts.
There is a basically now famous thread in the bogleheads forum where a user could not understand the disdain the site had for ARKK and was preparing to dump his entire retirement in it. the post was made literally a day after ARKK's historical high. still down 60% from that time period.
this fund went from taking in 40 million in fees prior to 2020 to almost 200 million in fees. incredible.

:)
me too
have (barely) enough in retirement (expensive state and town), not all that many years left (mid-70s), concur in all the takes re ultrahigh P/Es, etc.
my greed needs to be strongly managed, though

@stillers,
Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
Congratulations.

Thanks!
Let me correct your dates. Sorry if my post was confusing on that!:
Retired in 2012 at Age 56
RMDs will start in 2029 at Age 73 (unless gov't pushes back further)
Paid ZERO FIT 2013-2024 (12 years)
Plan to (and very likely will) pay ZERO FIT/SIT 2025-2028 (4 years)
Total ZERO FIT/SIT period (16 years)
Strategy was pretty simple (but takes a while to explain!):
Starting with first professional employments in 1980, got as much $ as humanly possible into tax-deferred accounts. We were DINKS, Double Income, No Kids.
ONLY worked for companies that had defined benefit pension plans as a bene. Collectively had four professional jobs and four defined benefit pension plans between the two of us between 1980-2012. Annually maxed out 401k's and 403b's and all other investable monies went to Roth IRAs.
Rolled all possible Pension monies to IRAs upon termination of service to control when we receive income. Final employers provided lovely parting gifts of Retiree Health Insurance, Retiree Dental Insurance and a RHSA (Retiree Health Savings Account). Retired with just enough $ outside the umbrella (in taxable a/c's) to bridge income gap in years until early SS began for both at Age 62 in 2018.
Started taking (effectively) tax-free IRA w/d's in 2013 to fully defray annual income gaps and/or maximize tax savings. Currently, SS and remaining pensions (that could not be rolled) cover all but a couple grand of annual living expenses.
98% of liquid net worth is still in IRAs and only 2% is in taxable accounts. We have generated negligible taxable income other than early SS starting in 2018 and remaining Pensions that weren't rolled starting in 2013. We have ALWAYS since 2013 kept total taxable income UNDER the taxable MFJ threshold.
And to answer question by @derf:
No formal employment since both retired in 2012. We do however have some friends and relatives throw at us a little cash, dinners, event tix and the like for our otherwise gratuitous mgmt of their ports. I have also done some yard work for some neighbors to keep busy and active for a ridiculously smallish hourly fee. Currently down to just one neighbor as I've tired somewhat of all that.

@stillers,
Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
Congratulations.

Next to nothing? Why stop there? For us, it's been nothing.
Not to beat a dead horse, but as a retired bean counter I've posted many times that tax planning is, or should be, a lifelong process.
When we started our professional careers in 1980 we adopted our "Avoid, Delay, Minimize" tax plan and have executed it with relentless precision. We prefer to pay our income taxes on our own schedule.
Result? We have not paid a dime in FIT/SIT since the year after our retirements in 2012, and will likely continue to choose to pay ZERO until RMDs are required at Age 73, a tax-free period of 16 years.
Some cool features of the strategy are ZERO taxes on otherwise taxable Cap Gains, SS and pensions, and (effectively) annual tax-free withdrawals from IRAs up to the taxable threshold. We choose to take the cash in lieu of Roth conversions to fund our smallish, annual income gap.
There are three phases to an investor's life: Accumulation, Maintenance and Disbursement. Our lifelong tax strategy and retirement investment strategy have allowed our portfolio to continue to grow significantly annually and we remain in the Accumulation phase.

If there were an opportunity to run polls in this forum, I would try to find out
A. Of those fully retired, how many manage their portfolio for total return and how many target X amount of income per month / year.
B. Of those that target X amount of income, (1) did they ever manage the portfolio in retirement entirely for total return and (2) if so, how many years into retirement (or age) did they add the element of income requirement?
P.S.: for me (A) so far total return. I have not figured out if and when I might introduce income requirement but given some people have it, I can not assume that I will only manage for total return. So far, I draw from the portfolio of what is needed.

”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
- “When I retired 13 years ago,”
I retired 25 years ago
- ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
- “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.”
Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
- ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.

Thanks for your information Hank! Your comparisons are actually to those of "bee", which I quoted in my post to you above, but that is fine since this thread actually should link back to the OPs.

”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
- “When I retired 13 years ago,”
I retired 25 years ago
- ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
- “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.”
Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
- ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.

An annuity-like distribution is certainly possible. I'm using a combination of funds such as SCHD, DIVO, NEAR, JPIE and a handful of dividend paying stocks and CEFs ...
Color me skeptical. Money managers like Vanguard and Fidelity tried to do this and failed.

Payout funds got their start during the 2007-2008 financial crisis when Vanguard and Fidelity both launched the products. The idea was appealing: Convert a retirement savings pool into a reliable income stream and offer investors peace of mind that they’d get a monthly paycheck, regardless of the market’s ups and downs.
...
Vanguard initially had three payout funds but merged them into one fund in January 2014. Fidelity developed a series of Income Replacement funds, paired with an optional monthly payout feature, but Fidelity rebranded the funds in 2017 as “Managed Retirement Income” with more of a high-income focus rather than managed payouts.
One hurdle: Managed payout funds have long had trouble hitting their income targets without dipping into capital—simply giving investors part of their money back. Annuities work similarly, though they have an insurance component that can keep the income flowing if the portfolio runs out of money.

Barron's, Vanguard Throws in the Towel on Its Managed Payout Fund, Feb 28, 2020
The insurance component is what is missing in DIY (or professionally managed) alternatives. In order to guarantee (self insure) that you won't run out of money in your lifetime, you have to overfund. That may be okay if you're planning on leaving a legacy and are willing to dip heavily into that legacy if things don't work out. But it reduces the income stream that you could otherwise have.
A similar point about underspending is made in the originally cited paper:

[U]sing a relatively simple model we estimate consumption could increase by approximately 80% for retirees if assets were converted to lifetime income streams, where the improvement rates are significantly higher for joint households

What annuities do is pool risk. Some people die early, others later. Instead of each individual self insuring (collectively overinsuring), individuals pool their risk through an insurance company. This provides larger income streams safely.
The risk is in outliving your money. A traditional immediate annuity is not the only way to protect against this tail risk. A longevity annuity (a form of immediate annuity where payouts are deferred) will also do the job.
T. Rowe Price recognized this and recently came out with a product for employer-sponsored plans (401(k)s, etc.). Its Managed Lifetime Income product provides a managed payout investment for 15 years followed by a QLAC (qualified lifetime annuity contract).
I don't see any reason why one cannot do this oneself, self-managing a portfolio (as @PRESSmUP described) and adding a longevity annuity (either QLAC or nonqualified).
Alternatively, one can annuitize a variable annuity.

Variable payout annuities provide protection against longevity risk and allow for some participation in the higher (but more volatile) returns of corporate equities and other real assets. They also avoid the annuitization risk because their benefit payments vary with investment performance and are not fully determined by the prevailing conditions at the time of retirement. But VPAs are exposed to investment and inflation risks ...

The Mechanics and Regulation of Variable Payout Annuities (50 pages. TL;DR)

hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context? bee did provide personal details of retirement and consideration of an "annuity-like" income stream:
"When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
I never know if posters are in similar situation as the OP, or if they are in a very different situation, when they offer their input to the OP.

@dtconroe, do you have Medicare or Medicare Advantage? Once you start Medicare, you cannot contribute to hsa, But you can continue to draw from hsa.

I have a Medicare Advantage plan and an HSA. Fortunately, I have been very healthy throughout my retirement. Same is true for my wife!

I thought I knew a lot about investing until opening a brokerage account at Fido 4-5 years ago. Much wider landscape to work with than just having investments at a few different houses. So am still learning. But I do know my 2022 (bear market) return was better by 2 or 3 points then it would have been if stuck in the previous fund houses. From my (broad) family experience of 70+ years the real issue is convincing someone to save during their working years, Without having something to invest, all the coaching in the world can’t help you in retirement.
I’ll vote for better financial education: ”Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.”
Great discussion. Thanks @stillers for the lengthy comment.

bee: "Question: How many have turned to annuities or "annuity - like" strategies to increase your income spending?
When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed.
What type of a portfolio would you design as an "Annuity - like" strategy for yourself? Maybe a combinations of Balanced mutual funds/EFTs that distribute periodically? Am I deribing the 4% rule?
Shifting from a mindset of saving for retirement to a mindset of confidently spending in retirement is a huge challenge we all face."
For me, I accumulated a significant amount "defined contribution" assets through my employer, along with some estate inheritance assets inherited by my wife. Those all reside in our property, in our Schwab Brokerage, and in local banks and credit unions. As part of our retirement, my wife and I depend on income from Social Security, a small government pension, which pays enough income for about half of our normal living expenses. We produce additional income through a changing array of asset holdings at our brokerage and our bank and credit unions. The closest thing to an "Annuity-like" strategy, that we use are fixed income instruments such as Money Market accounts, CDs, high yield Savings Accounts, and treasuries, to supplement SS and the small pension of my wife. The fixed income instruments are comfortably producing a 4 to 6% stream of income, so I am able to maintain principal and just live off the income that my "principal assets" throw off annually. I have in previous years used bond oefs, that were very low volatility, low "risk" funds, such as RPHIX and DHEAX, but when the Market went through a severe correction in 2020, I sold all the bond oef funds, put all the sales proceeds into MMs, and then moved money out of MMs into other low risk fixed income instruments, many of which are covered by FDIC and NCUA government insurance protection. That is where I am now, but I always have to maintain enough investing flexibility to make investment decisions necessary to throw off enough income, with the least amount of risk, to meet my 4 to 6% annual earnings.

From The article:

For 2024, individuals with taxable income below $47,025 ($94,050 for married couples) pay 0% tax for long-term capital gains (LTCG). In years when you’re under the threshold you could effectively lock in tax-free long-term gains. The idea would be to realize just enough LTCG to stay within the 0% tax bracket. You also have to tack on the standard deduction which is $15,000 for individuals or $30,000 for a married couple. That means don’t have to pay federal income taxes on your long-term capital gains until your income exceeds a little more than $63,000 (single) or $126,000 (married couple). So you could realize more than $63,000 ($126,000) in capital gains and dividends without paying any federal income tax.

Link to Article:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/how-to-pay-nothing-in-taxes-during-retirement/

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q4–January 13, 2025)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q4 and YTD to 12/31/24)
(No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
Pg 12:2024 was tough for stockpickers. So, look at the holdings of the top funds – LC-PAGDX, LC-BRAGX, MC-RCMFX, SC-HFCGX. Those included Magnificent 7, big tech, financials, energy. What may work for 2025? AI, energy, materials, infrastructure, travel.
Pg 14: In this Trump market, just follow the leaders. Watch cryptos, the best M* category (Digital Assets) of 2024, followed far behind by the MLPs. Trump and sons have a crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. Bonds and rate sensitive plays (utilities, real estate, etc) were laggards with the exception of financials that should benefit from coming deregulations. Funds related to Trump’s circle of friends did very well – PTIR (2x PLTR), TSLL (2x TSLA), MLXIX (9.6% in ET).
SP500 has 33% in tech and 13% in financials and did quite well in 2024 with +25% despite softness in stocks in 2024/Q4. The total ETF AUM was over $10 trillion with 4 ETFs among the top 10 being the SP500 ETFs. Inflows into ETFs, including the active ETFs, were strong. Mutual funds had outflows. Foreign funds didn’t do well (the US investor returns were also hurt by a strong dollar). (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
RETIREMENT. Super Catchup for 401k/403b from 2025. Another Secure 2.0 provision for catchups for 401k, 403b, government 457 and federal TSP kicks in 2025.
For 55+ $7,500 (regular)
For 60-63 $11,250 (higher of $10,000 and 150% of regular catchup)
SIMPLE retirement plan catchups are also adjusted: 55+ $3,500, 60-63 $5,250.
Priority order – 401k to employer match, Roth IRA, HSA, top off 401k.
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
https://i.ibb.co/dDw0rm1/Barrons-Cash-Track-011125.png
Q4 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/5x4xYCK/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-010925.png
Q4 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/R69M4pz/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-010925.png
LINK

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1480207/000089418925000127/dblmatliquidationsupplemen.htm
497 1 dblmatliquidationsupplemen.htm 497
DoubleLine Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
DoubleLine Multi-Asst Trend Fund (the “Fund”)
Supplement dated January 10, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary
Prospectus”), Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (the
“SAI”), each dated July 23, 2024
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary
Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI and should be read in conjunction with the Summary
Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
The Board of Trustees of DoubleLine Funds Trust has approved a plan of liquidation for the Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to take place on or about February 28, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). Effective after the close of business on January 24, 2025, the Fund’s shares will no longer be available for purchase by new investors or existing investors (other than qualified plans). Dividend reinvestments (where applicable) will continue until the Liquidation Date.
The proceeds per share to be distributed to each shareholder of record on the Liquidation Date will be the net asset value per share of the relevant class of shares of the Fund less any required tax withholdings, after all expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. For U.S. federal income tax purposes, the receipt of liquidation proceeds will generally be treated as a taxable event and may result in a gain or loss. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date,
shareholders of the Fund may redeem or, subject to investment minimums and other applicable restrictions on exchanges, exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the appropriate class of another DoubleLine fund (if available) pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Other Account Policies—Exchange Privilege” in the Prospectus.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, DoubleLine Alternatives LP, the Fund’s investment adviser, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation and the Fund’s portfolio may be reduced to cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments on or prior to the Liquidation Date. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with the Fund’s stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
The sale of portfolio holdings will result in the Fund realizing gains or losses, and the proceeds payable to shareholders will generally be subject to federal (and state or local, if applicable) income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. The Fund may also make a distribution of undistributed net income or capital gains prior to the Liquidation Date.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, your account may not be subject to tax withholdings if you take certain actions. For example, if you hold your shares in an individual retirement account (an “IRA”), you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “roll over” your proceeds into another IRA to maintain their tax-

all the great trips they were taking on their home equity.
OMG!
Ya, since 2010 I've babysat a colleague's portfolio. Pretty plain vanilla, all $$$ at TRP, still. I moved my own to uncle Chucky. He and many others were getting shafted by another colleague they thought they could trust. His real profession is working as a broker. He is a very part-time ordained Minister. Still makes little sense to yours truly. Maybe the others are STILL getting shafted! The SOB had them in front-load funds. These are all retirement accounts. Jaypers Crud.... My friend is still pleased, and I'm still willing.

This depends on your specific 401(k) plan.
As YBB mentioned, some plans allow in-service withdrawals while others do not.
You may want to check the 401(k) Summary Plan Description or contact your HR department.
My 401(k) Summary Plan Description states:
If you are age 59½ or older and still actively employed by company or a related company,
you can take a withdrawal from your pre-tax accounts once a year.
There are no early withdrawal penalties for this type of distribution.
You may roll over a pre-tax distribution to another eligible retirement plan or traditional or Roth IRA.
If you are age 59½ or older and still actively employed by company or a related company,
you can also take a withdrawal from your Roth after-tax account once a year.
There are no early withdrawal penalties for this type of distribution.
You will also not be taxed on distributions of your Roth after-tax contributions,
and the earnings on those contributions will not be taxed if the distribution is taken
after you have had a Roth after-tax account in the Plan for at least five years.