(This Article First Appeared in Bloomberg)
“UP AND down Wall Street, forecasters were caught flat-footed by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets. That seems to have rattled their faith in what the winning playbook for the rest of it should be. Heading into the year, a handful of predictions dominated strategists’ annual outlooks. A global recession was imminent. Bonds would trounce stocks as equities re-tested bear-market lows. Central banks would soon be able to stop the aggressive rate hikes that made 2022 such a year of market misery. As growth stumbled, there’d be more pain for risky assets.
“However, that bearish outlook was shattered as stocks rallied even as the Federal Reserve continued to ratchet up interest rates in the face of stubbornly elevated inflation. And what was supposed to be the year of the bond fizzled: US Treasuries have nearly wiped out their tiny gain for the year as yields test new highs and the economy remains surprisingly resilient in the face of the Fed’s monetary policy onslaught. As a result, financial soothsayers have rarely disagreed more about where markets are headed next.
“There’s a 50 per cent difference between the most bullish one from Fundstrat (which sees it rising nearly 10 per cent more to 4,825), and the most bearish call from Piper Sandler (down some 27 per cent to 3,225), according to those compiled by Bloomberg. The mid-year gulf hasn’t been that wide in two decades. “
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/wall-street-soothsayers-have-rarely-been-so-bewildered-about-whats-next

We've had nice feedback about Devesh's synopsis of his time with David Sherman and David's investment reflections. I think that Lynn makes a good case for concern about a "hard landing." And I'd love to find a way to raise the visibility of the HSA piece. It's one of those weird devices that seems a bit off-putting to novices, even though it has the potential to do great good for them.
Cheers!

Hi, guys.
Chip continues her recovery from surgery, which is a bit more sporadic than we'd hoped. In consequence, the June issue will go live somewhere between Friday evening and Saturday.
Good stuff coming:
investing like Taylor Swift, in CEFs (me)
the HSA as a backdoor to wealth building (msf)
advice for a young investor (Lynn)
dinner and a walk with David Sherman (Devesh)
recession watch (Lynn, with the note "buckle up")
Buffett, inflation and equities (Devesh)
Leuthold Core, with a sidetrip to Global and Core ETF (me)
cool churnings in the industry (Shadow)
And stuff!

Can we assume the instructions for having IRS send your refund to your TD account instead of your Bank account are the same as TD instructions to have employer send in money directly
"To have your employer send the money
You will fill out a direct deposit form that needs this information:
The "receiving bank name": TREASURYDIRECT (all capitals, no space)
The routing number for TreasuryDirect: 051736158
Your 10-digit TreasuryDirect account number, no hyphens, with a P at the end
(Example: A123456789P)
How much money you want to have your employer send from each paycheck
Where the form asks if this is a savings account (22) or a checking account (23), you can choose either. That doesn't matter to our system."
The form 8888 instructions say
An account can be a checking, savings,
or other account such as an IRA, HSA,
Archer MSA, ESA, or TreasuryDirect®
online account.
IT would probably work, but I am not sure I want to risk my $2500 refund. Still the form 8888 instructions say if the electronic account rejects your refund, they will issue paper check.
Anybody tried this?
I have to file on paper this year so who knows how long it will take for me to find out.

HSTRX
I will look at it again, although I am always concerned about Hussman's consistency and performance.
He writes these amazingly clear market commentaries with those beautiful graphics, claiming the roof is about to fall in, with data to support his position on valuations etc.
Then HSAFX is 75% stocks, HSTRX 75% short term bonds and HSGFX is 103% long with a short position of 35% so net 70% equity
I can never figure him out

The following two funds have performed well for me and have been worry-free.
Collectively they comprised 36% of my total portfolio at the beginning of the year.
Interm. Core-Plus Bond: DOXIX
Foreign Large Blend: MIEIX (invested in CIT "clone")
Edit/Add:
I've owned the following fund for ~5.5 years in my HSA and am pleased with its overall performance
but it's only a small slice of my portfolio.
Large Blend: PRILX

From @NumbersGal linked article:

Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
Inception date: 3/20/1968
Capital gain in 2022: 58.7%
This fund invests in domestic stocks and bonds, along with zero-coupon government bonds. It currently has about $505 million in assets, and its price declined 20% last year. With a current NAV of $520, an investor with 10 shares worth would have a capital gains bill of about $3,100 to then pay taxes on.

Per M*:
BRUFX had a loss of (8.76%) while the Category average was a loss of (14.96%).
NAV can be impacted by distributions. BRUFX distributed both LT gains and a dividend but $3100 on 10 shares? This article seems a bit off. More Like $1000 on 10 shares. Maybe the author is a ChatGPT 'bot?
Interestingly, the last time BRUFX had an NAV of $520 (aside from the COVID hiccup) was 2/4/2019. Yesterday its NAV was $520, but had you owed the fund over that time period you would have gained almost 35%. I personally own this fund in an HSA so I pay no taxes on these gains.

BRUFX, long term, has been berry berry good to me.

This is my summary of the Cover Story; I didn't see it as an ESG story and searches on "ESG" and "sustain" produced zero results. It is a story on how technology has changed farming.
COVER STORY (ECONOMY) “The Boom Time for FARMERS Can Last. Who Will Reap the Rewards”. AG-TECH is booming (biotech, AI, mechanization, hybrids, crop rotations). Higher grain prices and wind energy installations are helping. Farmland prices are up; institutions including pension funds are active in farmland. Grains are used for human consumption, animal feed, biofuels. But farm labor is hard to find, and many are turning to immigrants. Mentioned are AGCO, CNHI, CTVA, DE, TITN; farmland REIT FPI.
There are couple of general fund stories too:
FUNDS. BIOTECH funds are attractive now. They peaked in 02/2021 after a deluge of biotech IPOs following the pandemic in 2020. Mentioned are ETAHX, FBDIX, FBIOX, JAGLX, LYFIX, PRHSX, SHSAX; ETF XBI. (by MFO @lewisbraham)
FUNDS. Barnaby WILSON, Lazard Asset Management (OCMPX, etc). He is searching the GROWTH stock rubble globally for quality stocks with good cash flows, reasonable valuations, competitive moats, pricing advantage. He avoids companies with unprofitable growth.
LINK

I've been stepping into TAVFX, Third Ave Value fund and MOWNX, Moerus Worldwide funds...they own stocks of companies that deal in real assets...I'm thinking this is going to the wire meaning the debt limit and could get very wonky...US$ would go down bigly...do like the fund mgr comentary of TAVFX.."magical thinking the past 5 to 10 years, refers to SPACS, "private currency" dunno if he means shitcoins, trees growing to the sky US equities and transcending our physical world and reducing our dependcy of old economy activites like mining...I don't beleive any of those funds hold any Chinese company stocks as well which I consider a good thing, I don't care how they have doing lately etc. Also opened small position in SGGDX First Eagle Gold. To go along with strong bank, FDIC balance sheets CDs when my Tbills roll off. Still hold my PMEFX, PVCMX and HSAFX, Hussy which could hold up better than most during a debt limit crisis.
As far as all the politico comments, I'll just say I have an opposite viewpoint of most of what was written in this thread and will refrain from adding my comments as to not offend anyone and keep the focus on investing.
I also hope I am wrong but I can see the war in Ukraine spiraling out of control rapidly,,,my parents were in Europe during the War and the stories make me shiver....Mom saw folks chewing on the soles of their shoes and eating grass for nutrition....this has got to be de escelated. somehow someway, not pour more and more weapons in there.
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan

HSAFX is available with a transaction fee at Schwab and Vanguard-not available at E-Trade.

Unavailable also at Merrill Edge. But it is available at Firstrade (all funds NTF). At least it shows up at Firstrade if one logs into an account ($500 min); it isn't on Firstrade's public list of funds.

HSAFX is available with a transaction fee at Schwab and Vanguard-not available at E-Trade.

One factor is whether brokerages are carrying HSAFX. Don't know about all of them, but Fidelity continues to refuse to make it available. I've put in a request for it three times now, and the answer continues to be no.

It seems like Hussman got the formula right with HSAFX after years of HSGFX losing money in the post-2008 bull market. Unlike HSGFX, HSAFX has managed to produce small gains even during strong rallies, but it still has virtually no assets. I imagine there’s a legitimate trust question here.

Thank you all for the excellent information.
I reside in Washington state which has strong creditor protections for "employee benefit plans."
Here's a snippet from the corresponding state law:
"The right of a person to a pension, annuity, or retirement allowance or disability allowance, or death benefits, or any optional benefit, or any other right accrued or accruing to any citizen of the state of Washington under any employee benefit plan, and any fund created by such a plan or arrangement, shall be exempt from execution, attachment, garnishment, or seizure by or under any legal process whatever."
This law specifically states that employee benefit plans include: IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, 403(b) accounts, etc.
Link

@sma3, could not agree with you more! You have articulated what I have failed to state in the past. I would say that many of these states are depending/banking on a left leaning federal bailout...what happens if that is not so? Who knows but maybe a good topic of where to move to avoid these types of potential situations or is that too extreme?
@LewisBraham...you bring up Carly HP...reminds me of Bernie ranting about the billionaire's...pointing to the outliers to make your point...although would agree that it is almost inconceivable that we don't have national health coverate in this day and age...and like my very left leaning neighbor states, "does anyone really need to be a billionaire?" Truth. But, where does that stop, how about a millionaire? Who decides?
Back to the origianal question...if things start to look real wonky with the debt limit, I would pour my monies into something like HSAFX who might actually gain monies from the prior and after 3 months? Also would consider pair trade something like 55% HSGFX/45% VELIX...dunno, your mileage might vary?
Good points you all make, good luck and good health to everyone!
Baseball Fan

Yes, additional money was added to the 401(k), Roth IRA, and HSA accounts in 2022.

@Derf,
The 2022 rates of return listed above were obtained directly from Vanguard/Fidelity for each account.
I calculated total portfolio values after the last trading days of 2021 and 2022.
My overall portfolio value decreased 8.18% when 401(k), Roth IRA, and HSA contributions were included.
If these contributions were excluded, the decrease in value would have been greater (didn't calculate this result).
The 401(k) account comprised 42.23% of the total portfolio.
I hope this answers your question...

What changes (if any) do you plan on making to your portfolio in 2023?
Why are you making (or not making) a change in 2023?
I'll start...
Overall, I'm relatively pleased with my current portfolio positioning.
My stable value fund was exchanged for DOXIX on 12/30/2022 since bond yields have increased significantly.
Dollar-cost averaging into my 401(k) and HSA accounts will continue for MIEIX "clone" and PRILX respectively.
I plan to purchase additional shares of VPCCX and VPMCX (up to annual purchase limits) later in the year.
Some of the cash remaining in money market funds/T-Bills will be redeployed.
There are no concrete plans for this cash but I'm considering TIPS, munis, and small-cap/mid-cap foreign equity.
My portfolio doesn't have any dedicated exposure to these three investment categories.

Best portfolio performance enhancer: exchanging DODIX for stable value fund in late 2021.
Worst portfolio performance detractor: holding VWILX in 2022 (-30.79% return).
My portfolio consisted of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022.
Here are the 2022 Personal Rates of Return according to Vanguard and Fidelity.
Accounts are listed in descending order based on their total value.
401k
-8.02%
Taxable account #1
-8.50%
Roth IRA
-17.10%
Taxable account #2
-13.11%
HSA
Rate of Return info not available
My overall portfolio value (includes 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA contributions) declined 8.18% in 2022.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418191/000141304222001076/fp0081188-1_497ixbrl.htm
Excerpt:
At a meeting of the Board of Trustees of Walthausen Funds (the “Trust”) on December 8, 2022, the Trustees of the Trust approved an interim investment advisory agreement with North Star Investment Management Corporation (“North Star”) under which North Star will assume responsibility as adviser to of the Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”) on December 15, 2022. Therefore, all references to Walthausen & Co., LLC in the Fund’s prospectus are replaced with North Star. There is no change to the Fund’s investment strategy.
SAI:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418191/000141304222001078/walthsains.htm
North Star Funds:
https://nsinvestfunds.com/