Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the fund. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....PREFACE: OTC drug alert ! It appears that, as our physical bodies are dynamic, ever changing organisms; that mine is attempting to find whether it is becoming sensitive to pollen and other near springtime cooties. I started some of this write last weekend and have since been using OTC meds and a few concoctions from the wizards cabinet to eliminate a most crappy physical feeling. Today, Tuesday; i feel a bit better. I will now attempt to assemble a few words, that in the very least; are less goofy than normal.
"Farewell....." One should suspect that the word farewell and its meaning, is tempered as to the final meaning and feeling by each user of the word. There are farewells that may be permanent, those that may be transistions and those that are much less serious in nature, and may indicate a most fleeing circumstance of a short time goodbye. Here we are at MFO and have bid farewell to FA; but the farewell is a transistion, not a real goodbye; at least for me.
We also say farewell to funds from time to time; but this does not rule a permanent goodbye, perhaps a "see you later or again".
With fund investing, farewells usually indicate a need for a change for any number of reasons; of which, a few areas may be risk vs reward; or just the plain appearance of little forward direction/trend.
My personal farewells many times involve a need to down-size activities in order to regain control of the limited amount of time that our earthly clock affords each of us. I have farewelled an investment club where the others chose not to participate fully, a monthly email newsletter attempting to express governmental/poliical interconnects with investments; including basic topics of having a budget and not being one's own worse enemy with hard earned money and to giving over of some personal tasks of homeowner and auto "Mr. Fixit". I have learned much from all of these endeavors; but there are the times when one must decide to let go of certain things and focus into other areas. My most recent farewell was to our elected federal senators and representative. I have been a writer to these folks for many years and have grown tired of the "plastic" replies and find very little real thinking taking place. I noted a farewell and that a lobby of one (me) can not compete with the "K" street crowd and finally that I hoped they, their children and grandchildren all have a most qualified investment advisor; as they all need one going forward. Yes, I still will follow political events; but focus more on our local conditions.
So, FAREWELL to FA; as I transistion to MFO.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
catch
SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
CASH, for purchase of below FRIFX
BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
Fidelity Real Estate Income, FRIFX
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +.37% move this past week. I am sure, for whomever reads this; that you are surprised to find our mish-mash of funds have any forward movement at all. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. The Fidelity Real Estate Income fund added may provide another avenue of some growth and even if the fund NAV goes sideways, we may gather a 4% yield. Hey, who knows; this may be a decent return for 2011.
All of us have more than enough charts, graphs and numbers to view and ponder; to hopefully aid us in being better investors. I will note a few comments here about Bob's Mutual Fund page (link just below) and at this first page you should investigate the "definitions" link, if you are not familiar with data pages to view. Clicking upon the "fund leadership" link brings up a list of 1,000 funds. A big chunk of fund names in the bright red (not good) color or the dark green (good) color are easy to look through. One quick and dirty look I take is to find how many funds on the "leader board list" have a MO of "200" or more. I won't provide a year's worth of numbers, but a few snips: April 1, 2010 = 48, May 1, 2010 = 104, June 4, 2010 = 4, July 15, 2010 = 1, Oct 1, 2010 = 26, Oct 15, 2010 = 112, Nov 15, 2010 = 155, Jan 3, 2011 = 189 and downhill from here since......Mar 14, 2011 = 8 and through April 11 the number has been between 1 and 3. No big science here; but the MO numbers can be roughly matched to broad market reference points, too; as with VTI, SP500, etc. BIG NOTE: The funds list is a real mix of fund types, and one finds a fair number in the past month in the dark green area; which is an okay indicators. HOWEVER, in spite of a fund name; one will also find that many of the funds in "dark green/happy", regardless of name, have had more focused investments in energy and commodity sectors........and this is of no surprise to us, eh???
http://customer.wcta.net/roberty/
Anyway, take a peek; as your time permits. Perhaps you will discover an algo formula that is of the visual type, with looking !!!
OK, time for my nap.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
How our boat's cargo is doing:
Week: = +.37%
YTD = +3.11%
Reference points, week / YTD:
SP-500 "SDY" = -6% / +4.1% (SP-500,dividend inclusive etf)
Nasdaq = -.3% / +4.8%
(per Google Finance)
And the cargo is:
CASH = 15%
Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
Equity funds = 6.6%
-Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 6.6%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
DHOAX Delaware HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest grade
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIRX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

For the past year or so, when evaluate a fund, I look at a history of fund closings. The number of such managers if few and far between.
Micro cap funds close because they have to. I own one, and will be purchasing another.
Your other points/comparisons are well taken. Yes, I'm holding onto FAIRX, but Fairholme Capital's recent fund launches don't pass the sniff test. The actions on this front bother me moreso than Bruce's controversial stock picks.
(For the record, my thesis is that CGMFX is going nowhere because Heebner is a trend investor and there is no trend in the market right now -- except volatility. So, asset bloat or not, I'd wager that CGMFX will continue to disappoint for some time.)

The 1.84% expense ratio for MCLOX ($53.4B AUM for all classes) is unconscionable, and I would definitely not buy this class, and actually, any class of this bloated fund which is a laggard in its category. More attractive global allocation funds with much lower AUM and lower expense ratios include: First Eagle Global (SGIIX), Thornburg Investment Income Builder (TIBIX), JPMorgan Income Builder (JNBSX), Principal Global Dividend Income (PGDIX), Marsico Flexible Capital (MFCFX) or Harbor Flexible Capital (HAFLX), and the closed end fund, Nuveen Global Value Opportunities (JGV).
Kevin

How many investors here employ a "sell stop strategy"?
My understanding of this strategy is that it requires tracking the daily value of your EFTs, mutual funds or stocks. The purchase price and subsequent new highs are continually compared to the daily price. When a new high is made a new reference is established. The sell stop price is usually a percentage below (say 7%) the most recent reference price(your personal high). In this scenario, a 7% price drop from this most recent reference price would flag this investment as a candidate to sell. The strategy is an method of capturing gains as well as a way of limiting losses.
The attached (lengthy...sorry) read explains this strategy in more detail.
Any comments would be appreciated.
http://www.successful-investment.com/SellStopDiscipline.pdf
bee

* Goldberg's Picks: Top Funds for Investing in Emerging Markets
http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/fund-picks-for-investing-in-emerging-markets.html
[sorry if this is a repost]
* big gains on exotic bonds
http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/fundwatch/archive/tcw-emerging-markets-income-fund.html
* commodities watch
http://247wallst.com/2011/04/06/commodities-watch-us-oil-supply-surges-refiners-post-yearly-highs-cotton-jumps-to-limit-copper-gold-silver-shine-snp-vlo-tso-wnr-fcx-jjc-copx-gld-gdx-gdxj-slv-sil/
* copper is still king
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Copper-Is-Still-King-JJC-LIWA-SCCO-COPX-CU0406.aspx?partner=tickerspy
* Don’t buy stocks. Don’t buy bonds [just buy gold - j/k]
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=936B744C-5FC7-11E0-AE42-00212804637C
* etf to watch - MOO market vectors agriculture business
http://etfdb.com/2011/wednesdays-etf-to-watch-market-vectors-agribusiness-fund-moo/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+etfdb+(ETF+Database)
* gold miners ETFs breakdown all the options [article is few days late but worth a 2nd look]
http://etfdb.com/2011/gold-miner-etfs-breaking-down-all-the-options/
I am thinking of buying a small portions of SCCO - Southern Copper 5.5% dividends
courtesy of Ron Rowland from investwithanedge weekly commentary
Even the Fed is Confused
Ron Rowland
We are sad to report that one of the leading financial news services (which shall remain nameless but begins with Bloom and ends with berg) seems to be losing its editorial direction. We say this because of today’s near-simultaneous reports that stocks were weak because the Fed’s stimulus program may end and that bonds were weak because the Fed’s stimulus program may continue.
It is true that there is presently much speculation about future Federal Reserve policy. The Fed itself seems to be of two minds, in fact. Minutes of the March 15 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released on Tuesday, said that “a few” members were leaning toward tighter policy later this year while “a few” thought policy could remain loose beyond 2011. The news coverage simply reflects the fact that even the deciders are undecided. We suspect this will still be the case when Ben Bernanke holds his first-ever press conference later this month.
Not surprisingly, then, we see continued consolidation in the stock benchmarks. The S&P 500 is still bumping up against resistance near 1340 and has been unable to break above its February peak. Bond yields have been firm, but at 3.54% the ten-year Treasury is still not reflecting major inflationary pressure. This lack of concern regarding inflation is a bit odd given that gold just posted a new high and oil moved over $108.
The answer may be that price inflation is a problem only when people are willing and able to pay higher prices. Strapped U.S. consumers, faced with flat income, tight credit and rising gas and food bills, really have only one choice: reduce expenditures elsewhere. Retailers respond by cutting prices of discretionary goods, which offsets the inflation pressure. Hence we have the current situation. Prices are on the rise in some sectors and falling in others.
Can this go on indefinitely? Probably not. Central bankers usually don’t spring last-minute surprises, so we suspect they really are undecided. They cannot remain so. QE2 ends in June, and by then we will know whether more stimulus is coming or not. Lacking that clarity, we expect to see more low-conviction, low-volume trading the next few weeks. Corporate news and geopolitical events will be the main drivers until the Fed makes up its mind. Earnings season is getting underway, so there should be no shortage of corporate news in the coming weeks.
Sectors
Our Sector Edge graphic looks much different than it did just a few weeks ago. Energy had a significant lead over everything else, to the point that all other sectors looked almost flat in comparison. Energy is still in the lead, but we see a much more linear falloff between sectors. The momentum scores fall more or less equally from Energy at 53 to Technology at 6. Materials was the big winner this week as gold prices hit new highs. Industrials held on to the #3 spot. Health Care gained ground thanks to biotechnology stocks, but it still fell behind Telecom which is now in fourth place. Technology dropped to the bottom of the list.
Styles
Our Style rankings continued to show more diffusion as the spread between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked categories increased from 21 to 31. Small Cap Growth remained in the lead; this group recently eclipsed its 2007 peak and is now challenging its all-time high from March 2000. Small Cap Value, which had been lagging, moved into the upper half of the rankings. Mega Cap remained in last place. We still have inconsistent readings on Growth vs Value; Value holds a slight edge in the Large Cap segment while Growth dominates in Small and Mid Caps.
International
The Global rankings have a shake-up this week. Emerging Markets is the new #1 category. Analysts attribute the rally to strength in materials, a growing appetite for risk by investors, and weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Strong energy and commodity prices were positive for Canada, but it still slipped into a tie with China for second place. The dollar weakness boosted almost every foreign category and caused the U.S. to slip out of the top half of the chart. Japan is still out of sync with the rest of the world and was the only category to lose momentum last week.
Note:
The charts above depict both the relative strength and absolute strength of various market sectors, styles, and geographic locations on an intermediate-term basis. Each grouping is sorted (top to bottom) by relative strength. The magnitude of the displayed RSM value is a measure of absolute strength, which is our proprietary method of measuring and reporting the intermediate-term strength as an annualized value.

Dear friends,
As many of you know, Mr. Foster guided Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX) for six years before leaving a couple weeks ago. The fund, whose archived profile will be available in a few days, was famous for pairing reasonable returns with its peer group's lowest volatility. When he left, Matthews posted the obligatory "to pursue other interests" boilerplate.
Andrew wrote this morning, to let me know that he's launched his own firm (Seafarer Capital Partners) with the hope, in the foreseeable future, of being able to launch a new mutual fund or two. The imagined fund would have an international focus and would be consciously designed to incorporate shareholder-friendliness. In the interim, Andrew is posting a weekly commentary. (http://www.seafarercapitalpartners.com/)
He's on the road now, but we'll try to talk before my May commentary about his plans. I'm confident that we'll also manage a profile of the fund once it's launched.
For what interest it holds,
David

The Harbor High-Yield Bond Fund is subadvised by Shenkman Capital Management, Inc. The Fund invests primarily in below investment-grade bonds of U.S. corporate issuers. The portfolio manager selects securities issued by companies that generally exhibit or are believed to have the potential for positive credit momentum and credit rating upgrade. Seeking to maximize return and minimize risk.
Managed by:
Mark Shenkman (Started: Dec 2, 2002)
Mark Flanagan (Started: Dec 2, 2002)
Frank Whitley (Started: Dec 2, 2002)
It is not a clone of PIMCO

Hi paule,
I use Google Finance for a quick and dirty look. No spreadsheets set in the pc.
I do have a homemade worksheet (put together in MS Word) for our holdings by vendor where I total all of the true dollar values at the end of each business week. So, I check all vendor accts each week for the new total dollar value, write those onto the worksheet and use a handy-dandy HP caluclator to get the totals for comparing to the dollar value start at the first of the year and to also compare to the prior week ending to determine the week/YTD values you see at the Funds Boat. It really does not take too much time and I don't have to be concerned about linking our accts to some joe-blow magic, automated acct that will do all of the math. Someone else's "cloud" computer is not going to have that kind of knowledge about our private affairs.
NOW....for the below Google Finance look: At Google Finance I did "sign up" for a Google acct. to allow us to establish a "portfolio". I do not find that Google is invasive on the surface although they may keep track of everyone's accts.; they do not know whether the "portfolio" is real or test; as one may have more than one portfolio. If you look at the Google Finance page you will find the icons to create an acct, make a portfolio (I recall on the left page side). I clicked onto the "new/create) portfoio and the page then has an enter ticker at the bottom and Google matches the ticker to the fund name to add and also "add transactions data". The trans. data I enter is NOT the number of shares, BUT is the %/percentage of a particular funds holdings relative to all of our holdings SO, I did have to total the dollar values of each fund and find its percentage relative to 100%. THIS number becomes the number of shares held. SO, our full list of funds below....total 100 or 100%. NOW, obviously if all of the equity funds had big moves in 3 months and the IG grade bonds just stayed steady with no big NAV changes....the real dollar values would get out of line. SO, every 3 months at the least; I recalculate the % value of a given fund to the total cash value of our total holdings and adjust this a fewer or more shares. This is not necessary to do to just watch the daily NAVS....you could give each fund a "1" share amount and Google will still list the fund values/% changes each day. Copy/paste retained some of the format below. This is from the Monday markets close data. The "xxxxx" is the column where the number of shares would be placed.
I hope the makes some sense.....tis not very handy to describe, vs speaking directly to you and pointing a finger at a pc screen and saying now do this and that.
Summary: most of my work is old fashioned paper, pencil and calculator. This really does not take much time and I sometimes seem to get a better "feel" for money directions with this "hands on" approach, VS having a pc program dump numbers to me on the screen.
KEEP in mind, that although none of our holdings will ever move together; one does get a feel for holdings, what their "mood" tends to be.....I suppose the "intuitive" side of one's holdings. We have a fairly long list of HY/HI funds. BUT, I do know to a point that IF this sector is very happy or sad; that all of these funds will have similar reactions, so I do not really have to monitor each and every fund and treat them as one big HY/HI holding. If the sector starts to really stink, I most surely will look to find who is most happy or sad and make some decisions. NOW, this can not apply to the equity holdings, as I know the CAMAX below is not going to function in the same fashion as our Fido Select Auto or Leisure funds, UNLESS the whole global equity market is strongly traveling up or down. These do require a bit more attention. THIS is when I use Barcharts and Stockcharts.com to get a better look at particular charts and movements for a particular fund.
NOW, if I were an ETF trader; well, that would be a whole different world of watching and moving monies more often. And to note, as has been discussed many times at FA, I do rely on the active managers abilities to do some of our work.....as with the Loomis-Sayles multi sector bond fund. Some of our other bond fund holdings are in the same sectors as are already mixed within a LS style bond fund. So, in many cases with our overall portfolio, we are multi-multi sectored with some redundancy. This is okay, too; as we have spread the managers skills and investment styles around for one big BLEND of our holdings.
Ultimately, we all have our holdings dropped into the Veggie-Matic blender of funds and come out with a "taste/risk" that suits one's palate of flavor. Some like it sweet and some tend to the sour side.....all different, EH?
NOTE: I have written before, but our groups of holdings are somewhat ditated by the fact that we have several retirement accts and in some cases have only one HY choice. So, that is the forced pick of the litter for some monies.
Paule, I do hope this makes some sense.
I gotta get me butt on the road...............
Regards,
catch
Name▲▼ Symbol▲▼ Last price▲▼ Change▲▼ Shares▲▼
Cambiar Aggressive... CAMAX 15.69 -0.04 (-0.25%) xxxxx
Delaware Corporate Bond... DGCIX 5.89 +0.01 (0.17%)
Delaware High-Yield... DHOAX 4.24 +0.01 (0.24%)
Transamerica Partners... DIHYX 8.89 +0.01 (0.11%)
Delaware Diversified... DPFFX 9.24 +0.01 (0.11%)
Fidelity Capital &... FAGIX 9.84 +0.01 (0.10%)
Fidelity Investment... FBNDX 7.43 +0.01 (0.13%)
Fidelity Convertible... FCVSX 27.35 -0.02 (-0.07%)
Fidelity Select Leisure FDLSX 92.69 +0.03 (0.03%)
Fidelity Value FDVLX 74.34 +0.07 (0.09%)
Fidelity Global Cmdty... FFGCX 18.45 +0.13 (0.71%)
Federated High-Income... FHIIX 7.73 +0.01 (0.13%)
Fidelity Low-Priced... FLPSX 41.04 +0.02 (0.05%)
Fidelity New Markets... FNMIX 15.70 +0.02 (0.13%)
Fidelity Select Gold FSAGX 51.81 -0.09 (-0.17%)
Fidelity Select... FSAVX 45.38 -0.05 (-0.11%)
Fidelity Strategic... FSICX 11.23 +0.02 (0.18%)
Fidelity Large Cap Value FSLVX 11.23 +0.03 (0.27%)
Fidelity Total Bond FTBFX 10.77 +0.01 (0.09%)
Loomis Sayles Bond Instl LSBDX 14.65 +0.03 (0.21%)
Matthews Asian Growth &... MACSX 18.17 +0.07 (0.39%)
Oppenheimer Core Bond Y OPBYX 6.50 +0.01 (0.15%)
PIMCO Total Return Instl PTTRX 10.91 +0.02 (0.18%)
Fidelity High Income SPHIX 9.19 +0.01 (0.11%)
Templeton Global Bond C TEGBX 13.85 +0.01 (0.07%)

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the fund. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around....."Going to do it...." Fund money allocation is not unlike those who garden, have guns or perhaps a classic auto. Now you may find the choices a bit of a strange mix; but they do have relationships. For the gardeners, at least in the frost zone states; there are days to read the seed catalogues and think through the winter months; days to ponder what veggies or flower plants to buy and place, once you are able to actually visit an open garden center and know that planting time is just around the corner; except for the gardener's black swan of a late frost that may kill off anything that has been planted. The gun owners, who also hunt have similar challenges. At the very least, one may clean and condition a gun to be ready for use for target practice or actual hunting. Practice is a requirement, if one is a hunter. Without the practice, the hunt may be a waste of time and money; except for those who also enjoy the walk about in the field or forest. For a classic auto owner (defined by one's age group) in the cold weather states; there may be any number of things to do during the winter months of storage; which follow anything else that was already done in the months of the fall, before the big sleep. All of these facets of one's life have common ties as to; study, continued practice, patience and expected outcomes based upon previous and new knowledge, as well as the black swans of these above areas; which may change one's plans on a given moment. Weather conditions for the above 3 areas would be the most common event changer that could affect all; but any number of particular and specific events may place a special circumstance for a given area. One may drive the car or go hunting or target practicing on a cold and frosty day; but not plant the garden. A more pleasant and warmer day may provide the opportunity to plant garden and flower seeds, or perhaps actually set some plants and the light rain does not matter; except that the hunter or classic car person will likely choose to skip the day for another with dry prospects. And of course, there are the days or periods (sometimes for months) when everything weather related is a big go for all 3 of the above to be happy-time. Take your best thinking with you from the list above or whatever other area helps you think and prepare; and move this over to your thinking area of the cranium for your investments. There are seasons for some investments and some investments for most all seasons. All of us attempt to determine our allowed (risk) choices. As with the above; sometimes the plants get killed by frost and have to be purchased again and planted that second time, sometimes the hunter gets caught in bad weather with no luck and extra work to clean the wet gun and sometimes the classic auto person finds themselves 100 miles from home and the safety of the garage in one of the worse rain and hail storms they have seen in years; although the weather forecast made no mention of such weather conditions pending.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
catch
SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a+.44% move this past week. WELL, the best laid plans...blah, blah, blah. Had some plans for clearing the "mold" off of our cash pile last Friday and had to venture away from any online connection at noon and did not return home until after the markets were long closed. SO, we will take another peek today, Monday, April 4 to find what stirs. Missing any Friday move is not problematic; as Friday may not be the best day to flip monies into a new direction anyway; and of all days; APRIL FOOL'S DAY ! However, this house is still looking at adding to energy, materials/chemicals and related going forward. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
How our boat's cargo is doing:
Week: = +.44%
YTD = +2.74%
Reference points, week / YTD:
SP-500 "SDY" = +1.9% / +4.7% (SP-500,dividend inclusive etf)
Nasdaq = +1.7% / +5.2%
(per Google Finance)
And the cargo is:
CASH = 16.3%
Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
Equity funds = 5.3%
-Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity funds 5.3%
This is our current list:
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
DHOAX Delaware HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest grade
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity)
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FSAGX Fidelity Select Metals
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

Managed Futures funds are generally positioned as "all-weather" vehicles and are more long/short funds. The only issue with managed futures funds (especially more basic funds like the Rydex Managed Futures fund) is that they do best with a consistent trend in the investments they follow. Rydex MF did well in 2008, then not so good in 2009/2010. Everyone who piled in after the fund's impressive performance in 2008 (+8%) was not so pleased when the fund did not do well the next year.
The more complex retail funds (the Rydex Long/Short commodity fund, which is a more aggressive managed futures fund) have more complex (not hedge-fund like, but more evolved than the initial Rydex Managed Futures fund) mechanisms to follow trends, but are still vulnerable to volatility and with passively managed vehicles like the Rydex funds, limited repositioning (which can be an issue, given geopolitical impact and other issues with commodities. As for long-biased funds, while commodities have ran a lot, the Highbridge fund's ability to emphasize certain sectors if events warrant doing so is - I think - appealing. It depends on whether or not the managers can effectively take advantage of situations as they present themselves, but the fund gives them at least the *potential* to do so. Again, a good deal is riding upon the managers in the case of the Highbridge fund. The Pimco fund cannot short commodities. It's long-only and if it's a good year, it's a good year, if it's not a good year for commodities, well...I guess at least you have the reinvested distributions for the time being. The Highbridge fund, still being long-biased, will definitely lose on a bad commodity year, but the hope is not to the same degree as something like the Pimco fund.
The actively managed AQR Managed Futures fund is more interesting (although that is a broad, multi-asset managed futures fund, not just commodities), as are some of the newer vehicles (the Altegris fund, which is still very new). As I've noted in other posts, I'd love to see way more complex investments/strategies be made available to US investors, but I doubt it will be happening soon, given all the regulatory hassle.
These managed futures funds are more limited risk, and more limited reward, although the "goal" (and I emphasize "goal"; it depends on how well the fund follows trends and - I think - its capability/flexibility in being able to do so) is consistent, small gains (as is the goal with sometihng like Merger Arbitrage). In other words, singles year-after-year, even in a time period like 2008.
However, I think that's tough with basic funds like Rydex Managed Futures (RYMFX). You are seeing "second generation" and "third generation" Managed Futures vehicles for retail investors (like the AQR fund), but these funds still have periods where they underperform the index. They will also have periods where they outperform the index and are generally not heavily correlated to broad market movements. Again though, I think my concern with something like Rydex Managed Futures is, given the increasingly fast nature of the markets today, it's great that retail investors are offered managed futures funds, but is something as basic as the Rydex fund like a Fisher Price Managed Futures fund? I'm just not sure how well the more basic initial managed futures mutual funds hold up over the next decade and would look at the more 'second and third generation' funds if I were to be interested in the strategy.
Natixis has some futures funds (such as Managed Futures) managed by the very well-regarded Andrew Lo, but the funds are pricey in terms of expense ratio.
I like managed futures as a diversifier quite a bit, but if I'm looking for a commodity play, something like the Rydex Long/Short fund is not going to be a core holding, but instead a supporting player.

I would just suggest that you consider another option, that being managed futures, and not just long-only commodities. When commodities tanked in 2008, long funds really took it on the chin, while managed futures funds ended the year with gains. I am not saying that HDCCX will behave in any specific way should a similar event occur, but I would want to maybe hedge my commodity bet. The managers could be the next best thing since rolled toilet paper, but the fact that they "may reduce exposure to commodities in certain environments" means that they likely cannot go very short at all. In 2008, PIMCO Commodity Real Return lost more than 43% with a strategy that is not all that unlike HDCCX. So tread carefully. With 4%, you are probably ok, but I would be sure to capture all the gains, regularly, as the commodity bull market continues...just in case.