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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Are you selling, buying, or staying the course these days.
    Reply to @fundalarm:
    Fidelity periodically sends out email like:
    Your Account Profile Confirmation contains the most current information we have on file about you and your Fidelity account. To ensure that we have the correct information, please review it carefully by going to Fidelity.com.
    No action is required if the information on your Account Profile Confirmation is correct. If any of the information is missing or incorrect, you can update it at any time by doing one of the following:
    - Visiting Fidelity.com/YourProfile ...
    I spoke with a Fidelity rep years ago when they started doing this, and they said that they take the "suitability" requirements seriously, whatever that means.
    Here's Schwab's Update Account form. Item 3 (Investment Profile) asks for the level of your investment experience, annual income, and liquid net worth. Item 4 asks for your investment objective (which may be a broad indicator of asset allocation) - capital preservation, income, growth, speculation. The form includes a disclaimer that "Schwab has no obligation to determine whether a particular transaction, strategy, or purchase or sale of a security is suitable for you." That doesn't seem to waive a possible obligation to ensure that your portfolio as a whole is suitable for your investment objectives and experience level.
  • Latest Presentation From Gundlach: Mirror, Mirror on the Wall
    Reply to @Charles: The US has dusted itself off and is going along better than anyone else (although that's still only just muddling along, with heavy discussion of another QE), but at what cost for what growth there is?
    Europe is a mess and you have officials who will try to keep the status quo by any means necessary (again, it becomes a matter of at what cost, both short-term and long-term) rather than face reality. Europe will kick the can, I guess it becomes whether Germany will continue to go along with it or go their own direction.
    Emerging Markets are all over the place - Brazil seems to be coming back a bit (and I still like BRAQ, although I don't own it at the moment), and while China has done terribly , other areas in Asia (Indonesia, Singapore) have fared much better. I think Singapore REITS are best performing asset in the last year - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/singapore-reits-yield-world-s-best-returns-southeast-asia.html "Singapore’s $38 billion REIT market has returned an average 37 percent in 2012, twice the gains in the U.S., U.K. and Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia, the largest REIT market in the Asia-Pacific region with $86 billion, advanced 24 percent."
    There are some patches of European stocks that are going crazy - French co's Gemalto and Ingenico (related to mobile payment boom) are up something like 88% and 55%, respectively (and the latter doing far better than its US counterpart, Verifone, which is -12%). In Singapore, look at Starhub - up nearly 40% and big dividend. Tower Bersama - big Indonesian cell tower company - up 88%.
    I hate to quote Cramer, but in terms of his "there's always a bull market somewhere", look at mobile, but the thing is, you can't limit yourself to the US - so many interesting plays on it in other parts of the world. Health/Supplements - look at Schiff Nutrition up 121% in the US, or a company like CHR Hansen in Denmark, up 60% or German co Symrise (although that's more flavor and fragrance) up nearly 50%. Infrastructure, too - Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), which I've discussed on here in the past, up 42%
    I'm not *as* bullish on the US as some, although I do think it's likely the best house, cleanest shirt, whatever one would like to call it, in comparison. I do think there are a lot of interesting opportunities around the world, and even though Europe has its problems, some sectors or individual companies are doing well or really well.
    I'm to the point where it becomes more about what you're looking for than where you're looking for it. I still think people have to be globally diversified, whether they're looking for funds or specific plays on specific themes.
  • Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX) or Fidelity GNMA (FGMNX) eeny meeny miny mo....
    Hi Soupkitchen,
    First, I agree with hank; that given near equal fund types, to gain the value of the lower ER to your benefit.
    Two questions about this bond area. Do you have other bond funds that already have exposure to this area; and what is the purpose you desire to achieve with GNMA/mortgage type funds?
    We hold numerous managed bond funds and do have a few that are more focused: TIPs, emerging market and high yield/income; while one bond fund is more slanted towards the mortage area.....OPBYX.
    Our list are these:
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
    PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    No bond expert here; but we do keep a keen eye to this area, at this time.
    I'll check back tomorrow, as 6 a.m. will be here too soon.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Our Funds Boat, Week + .27%, YTD + 9.74%, Fund Tools, 9-9-12
    Howdy,
    A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
    For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
    NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
    While looking around..... Fund Tools, here at MFO and Google Finance. MFO's Accipiter has graciously provided 2 wonderful tools for our use. Both tools, Falcon's Eye and Navigator may be found at the main, large, blue title bar at the top of each page here, but I will only define my use of Navigator. At "Resources", hover the mouse for a drop down menu, and select "Navigator". Accipiter has written a nice "how-to" at this page. This note regards finding funds by name title, to help sort a fund list for special fund types of interest. A good example, which will allow you to discover the value of this tool; is to type the word "unconstrained" in the "fund" box. This word example is used to find any fund that is likely an "unconstrained bond fund" by vendor name. You will discover a full list to be generated, at which point you may click upon the fund name, which will allow you to study this fund via a number of selectable sources (M*, etc.). NOTE: If one uses a very generic name, as "total"; the generated list may be too large, and can not fill to the end of the alpahbetic naming list. Also, as you begin to type a naming; you will likely find an intuitive list begin to generate; which may or may not be what you intended to search.
    Google Finance: You do not need to be signed in or a registered user of any Google function to use this method.
    At the search box, try "high yield" for a test of this feature. An intuitive drop list will begin to form. Ignore this list and click the "blue spyglass" to generate a list of the words searched. Upon loading your search, you will discover a "company" and a "mutual fund" header list generated. As you scroll down, the "company" list may contain various types of funds (etf's, index, etc.). Further scrolling will provide the "mutual fund" list. IN BOTH LISTS, if the list is large, you will find a "more" highlighted at the end of the list. For high yield, 100's of mutual funds are noted; but keep in mind, and not unlike "Navigator", some of these are redundant listings for various classes of a same fund. After selecting more, arrow keys appear at the list end to move through the list.
    I believe all of these procedures are proper steps. If I missed something, please let me know.
    The data/numbers below have been updated.
    As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.)
    --- U.S. equity - 2.4% through + 3.8%, week avg. = + 2.4% YTD = + 16%
    --- Int'l equity - .4% through + 4.0%, week avg. = + 2.5% YTD = + 11%
    --- Select eq. sectors + .9% through + 5.6%, week avg. = + 2.7% YTD = + 15%
    --- U.S./Int'l bonds - 2.4% through + .6%, week avg. = - .26% YTD = + 3.2%
    --- HY bonds + .2% through + 1.1%, week avg. = + .65% YTD = + 10.3%
    An Excellent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
    You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control. We retail investors will find many interesting investment periods to ponder, as usual, in the coming years.
    I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
    SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE

    Portfolio Thoughts:
    Our holdings had a + .27 % move this past week. Sidenote: The average return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = + 1.75%, YTD + 12%). The equity markets, while having been very happy recently, still appear a bit on edge; so our portfolio will stay in place for now. This coming week may indicate any further actions by the Fed. Reserve, relative to "stimulus". We will review one particular holding (PLDDX) based upon a Fed. plan going forward. As for Europe's grand plan to buy every sovereign bond in sight to help stablize some country bond issues; well, I am not waving a victory flag for this project just yet. Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching still applies.
    --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
    --- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
    --- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
    --- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIP, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various bond sectors. These areas may also reflect towards directions of various equity sectors; as if some bond types get the cold shoulder, so will some equity areas, regardless of perceived quality or value.
    The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
    I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
    The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
    Bloomberg Balanced
    Bloomberg Flexible
    These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
    Conservative Allocation
    Moderate Allocation
    A reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
    ***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
    VWINX .... + .2% week, YTD = + 8.56%
    PRPFX .... + 2.05% week, YTD = + 7.01%
    SIRRX ..... + .13 % week, YTD = + 5.29%
    TRRFX .... + 1.24% week, YTD = + 9.39%
    VTENX ... + .95% week, YTD = + 8.56%

    Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
    We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
    Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    ---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of June 1, 2012---
    From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
    U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
    Bonds 93.9% ***
    Other 4.2%
    Not Classified 0.00%
    Avg yield = 3.72%
    Avg expense = .55%
    ***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)

    ---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
    -Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 22.4%
    -HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
    -Total bond funds 32.4%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
    PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside of some of the above funds.
  • Who Said 'Sell In May And Go Away' ?
    I would hate to think how much smaller my capital (aka retirement nest egg) would be had I adhered to this ridiculous maxim over the past 25 years+.
  • Trusted Managers, New Funds
    Wintergreen (WGRNX) qualifies as a "new fund"? Uhhh ... 2005? $1.6 billion in assets. If Morningstar's database is to be believed, there are 4465 newer funds.
    Some of the funds in the essay were profiled here some while ago (Grandeur Peak Global, RiverPark Long/Short). Two of the others (GoodHaven -what's up with this insistence on jamming words together but maintaining the capital letter in the middle? chip attributes it to some arcane programming convention -- and RiverPark Large Growth) strike me as perfectly serviceable and likely to be strong long-term performers but not ones defining any new or distinctive niche.
    As ever,
    David
  • What is the optimal level of targeted volatility for a risk balanced fund?
    AQR has one current risk balanced fund (AQRIX) and two more on the way (Medium Volatility - MV and High Volatility - HV). They have different levels of annualized targeted volatility:
    AQRIX: 10%
    MV: 10%
    HV: 15%
    I am curious if there are any insights about what is the optimal level of targeted volatility for someone who plans to hold the fund for a long time and is interested in capital appreciation rather than current income? To what extent does the risk associated with the higher volatility strategy lead to higher returns? If so, does the expected return rise proportionately as targeted volatility increase?
    Thanks in advance!
    BWG
  • rbc wealth management & pimco/Gross news
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-pimcos-gross-beats-the-average-bond-fund-2012-09-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp
    risks in MM
    http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/20120903vanguard-founder-bogle-risks-money-markets.html
    RBC Wealth Management
    Michael D. Ruccio, AAMS
    Senior Vice President -Financial Advisor
    25 Hanover Road
    Florham Park, NJ 07932-1407
    (p) (866) 248-0096
    (f) (973) 966-0309
    [email protected]
    michaelruccio.com
    Market Week: September 4, 2012
    The Markets
    With the exception of the small caps of the Russell 2000, equities continued to slump on low trading volumes. The S&P 500 remained tantalizingly close to its year-to-date high, and the Dow and Nasdaq were only a little over 1% away from hitting theirs. Meanwhile, the Global Dow benefitted from last month's promises that the euro would be preserved at all costs. Oil and gold ended the month higher, helped by a somewhat weaker dollar.
    Market/Index 2011 Close Prior Week As of 8/31 Week Change YTD Change
    DJIA 12217.56 13157.97 13090.76 -.51% 7.15%
    Nasdaq 2605.15 3069.79 3066.96 -.09% 17.73%
    S&P 500 1257.60 1411.13 1406.57 -.32% 11.85%
    Russell 2000 740.92 809.18 812.09 .36% 9.61%
    Global Dow 1801.60 1885.92 1869.92 -.85% 3.79%
    Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
    10-year Treasuries 1.89% 1.68% 1.57% -11 bps -32 bps
    Equities data reflect price changes, not total return.
    Last Week's Headlines
    The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter rather than the 1.5% previously estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's slightly higher than previously thought, but also slightly lower than Q1's 2%. Corporate after-tax profits were up 1.1% from the previous quarter, and up 3.3% from a year ago.
    Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, was up 0.4% in July after falling in June and being flat in May. According to the Commerce Department, it was the biggest increase since February. Unfortunately, the spending increase outpaced gains in income, which rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month. As a result, the savings rate edged downward to 4.2% of income after reaching a year-long high the month before.
    June was the second straight month of higher sales prices for new homes; the 2.3% gain in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index, which followed a similar gain in May, left it 6% higher than the recent low seen in March. Though the index is still more than 30% from its 2006 peak, all 20 cities in the index saw increases, which ranged from Charlotte's +1% to Detroit's +6%. Even better, the year-over-year change in the index (+0.5%) was positive for the first time in almost two years.
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the Fed's quantitative easing measures and said the Fed is ready to do more if needed. However, he stopped short of promising to supply additional measures at the Federal Open Market Committee's September 13 meeting.
    Eye on the Week Ahead
    Light summer trading volumes will likely increase as traders begin to position themselves for the end of the quarter. Unemployment data will likely get extra attention because its release date is so close to the next FOMC meeting, and the European Central Bank's September 6 action on interest rates could be of interest.
    Key dates and data releases: U.S. manufacturing sector, construction spending (9/4); labor productivity/costs (9/5); U.S. services sector, European Central Bank meeting (9/6); unemployment/payrolls (9/7).
  • AQR Risk Parity I AQRIX
    Reply to @scott: Thanks scott, as always. I just downloaded "The Quants" on Audible. Here is summary for others:
    image

    Publisher's Summary
    In March 2006, the world's richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with ­million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap.
    Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past 20 years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers who'd long been the alpha males of the world's largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for history's greatest financial disaster.
    ©2010 Scott Patterson, Random House

  • AQR Risk Parity I AQRIX

    Like most funds scott owns, I'm intrigued by this one...AQR Risk Parity AQRIX (or AQRNX), a hedged, dynamic global allocation fund.
    Its approach must appeal to the mathematician in me. That of trying to hold a certain level of volatility while seeking total return through a dynamic allocation across diverse investment types. An attempt to mitigate near-term capital loss that is inevitable in the business cycle, but tough to swallow for the typical investor, even if that same investment will gain twice as much down the road...on the other end of the cycle. AQRIX is a fairly new fund that suggests perhaps modern trading tools may make such an attempt more successful than the typical 60/40 allocation funds.
    I like that AQRIX has done well since inception against other formidable established offerings, like PIMIX, MFLDX, BBALX, VWIAX:
    image
    I like that AQR discloses fund manger investments and other account responsibilities.
    I like that its four managers are invested in the fund:
    John Liew, Ph.D from $100,001 - 500,000
    Brian Hurst from $100,001 - 500,000
    Michael Mendelson from $500,001 - 1,000,000
    Yao Hua Ooi from $1 - 10,000
    I like that Liew holds degrees from University of Chicago where he remains is a trustee. That Mendelson holds three degrees from MIT (can you believe?), including one in mathematics. That Hurst and Ooi are Wharton School grads. That the three senior managers did time at Goldman Sachs.
    I like that the expense ratio is under 1% and the fund has attracted healthy amount of assets at $825M. The fund has hedge-fund like flexibility without the attendant 1%/10% or even 2%/20% fees.
    I like that AQR's website offers a lot of information about the fund, including a downloadable Excel spreadsheet of current holdings.
    I do not like that AQR appears to have launched 7 new funds within the past year, nearly doubling the portfolio of publicly managed funds, which is now at 16. I understand from an article in WSJ that the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm built its reputation managing hedge funds for wealthy and institutional investors. It stumbled like many others in 2007/8 as the credit crunch hit, but quickly recovered.
    I do not like that two other AQR international public funds, AQIIX and AQGIX, where Mr. Liew is shown as a participant but not principal manager, have under-performed their benchmarks. The principal manager of those two funds is Cliff Asness, who along with Liew, started AQR Capital Management in 1998. The other AQR fund where Liew appears as principal manager is the heavily hedged Multi-Strategy Alternative Fund ASAIX, and while young, it looks to be doing ok compared to its benchmark.
    And, I guess, I do not like that Affiliated Managers Group now owns a minority stake AQR Capital Management, but I know that seems to be the way of things these days.
    Overall, there is a lot I like about this new fund AQRIX and, honestly, about AQR. I will probably take up a position soon. That said, I'll remain sensitive to AQR Capital keeping investors first in its quest to grow their firm.

  • Any opinion on Metropolitan west unconstrained, MWCRX?

    Nice. MWCRX has done well since inception, and on par with other larger and established high yield bond funds, like the gold rated SPHIX at Fidelity, as shown below:
    image
    Just go in eyes wide open. Roll back a few years and you can see how this category of investment can quickly lose more than 20%:
    image
    But I like Tad Rivelle's attitude, reflected in the Barron's article you reference. When asked "What is the role of a bond-fund manager when the party ends?" Mr. Rivelle responded:
    The foremost role of a bond-fund manager always is to protect capital, to keep himself and his clients out of trouble. It is going to get miserable at some point. There will be a rising-rate environment, with people flying headlong out of a variety of asset classes. The circumstances are always different, but that is always the case.
    One other thing, just make sure its 2.86% EP keeps getting subsidized until it grows in assets.

  • our September issue has posted
    Thanks David for another great commentary. I especially liked your timely feedback from Eric Cinnamond.
    I didn't add a comment on Shadow's post about ARIVX re-opening because it was confusing to me. What was the reason for opening a fund with so much cash on hand? Some were bashing a fund that fits to a tee what I want in an equity investment, capital preservation at the forefront and a proven smart manager. A fund with a goal of out performing the market over a full economic cycle. Not a fund that tries to shoot the lights out in good times but pays the piper in bad.
    ARIVX has become one of my favorites, along with YAFFX and MACSX, because they all seem to have the investment goals my risk tolerance relates too.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund to reopen.
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/869351/000120928612000416/e1195.htm
    BROWN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT MUTUAL FUNDS
    The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated August 31, 2012 to the Fund’s prospectuses dated July 30, 2012
    Effective September 4, 2012, The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund will re-open for investment to all investors who wish to purchase Fund shares. All references in the Fund’s prospectuses disclosing that the Fund is closed to new investors are hereby deleted.
    Brown Capital Management Mutual Funds
    1-877-892-4BCM
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Marketfield sold,...maybe buy again
    Perpetual Bull posted the link earlier in reference to another fund, but I thought this bit from Pimco EQS Long/Short (PHMDX) was well put in terms of describing the fund's long/short philosophy.
    "We short stocks when we identify opportunities to generate alpha as
    opposed to simply hedging market risk. Companies we short tend to
    fall into two categories: Fundamental shorts, or companies in secular
    decline, and cyclical shorts, or businesses that will likely be most
    impacted by a weakening economy.
    When our outlook is bearish and our objective is to reduce equity
    market exposure, moving to cash is usually our first line of defense. In
    bear markets, the Fund can go 100% into cash and cash equivalents
    in an effort to avoid downside risk. To help preserve investors’ capital,
    in September 2008, for instance, we were invested mostly in cash and
    cash equivalents.
    In addition, our approach is consistent with the needs of many
    investors who are moving away from benchmark-oriented strategies in
    favor of highly active, unconstrained approaches that seek to limit
    downside risk."
    https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC0059/20120813/AR_139608.PDF
  • Marketfield sold,...maybe buy again
    Reply to @scott: Hi Scott. We have a lot of client dollars in MFLDX. It is pretty much a core hold in our alternative strategies allocation. When it becomes part of MainStay, the no-load, NTF shares will only be available to existing retail shareholders. That is the official word from Marketfield management. RIAs with accounts in MFLDX will be able to add new accounts, but this does not apply to retail investors.
    We have some dollars in Forward Tactical Growth FTGWX. Because it uses specific indicators in making its long-short decisions, it can be (and has been) whipsawed in choppy markets. It does better in longer periods of market decline. They did a great job in 2010's second quarter and 2011's third quarter. But in both cases, their model did not turn quickly enough to prevent losses in the subsequent quarters, when the stock markets had nice gains.
    We have looked briefly at KeeleyKALIX, but are skeptical of a two-person family team capably running five different funds, especially when there does not appear to be a history of running long-short investments. It could be this will be a fine option, but Keeley funds seem to do great out of the gate, then less so as they grow assets.
    Another option is Wasatch FMLSX, which has been around since 2003. It is less aggressive in both its long and short calls than MFLDX. But it runs a decent second to MFLDX. Forester FVALX has sort of morphed from a large cap value fund to a long-short fund in M*. It hardly moves at all from day to day, as Tom Forester is extremely conservative. It is the only equity fund to have gained anything in 2008, but it is more of a capital preservation strategy than long-short. Then there is Hussman HSGFX, which has been a disaster because of the manager's fear of everything. He will undoubtedly be right at some point, but I cannot imagine hanging around this fund long enough to realize that.
  • Oceanstone caveat emptor and mxxvx
    I'm attempting to get out of osdfx. It has redeeming qualities, so I'm selling. Not so fast. Telephone redemptions are not allowed and I was told to produce a 'letter of intent,' take it to my bank for a signature guarantee. When I did just that, the bank manager, someone I've known for some time, wouldn't take it, claiming that she needed a form instead. She found one, online. The people at MSS, the administrator, apparently did not know about the available download and claim that they receive handwritten notes all the time for redemptions, which I seriously doubt. Can't get that guarantee at the bank that easily, Fed regs and all. Just be aware that Oceanstone is not an easy exit or other sale fund. Easy to purchase shares though.
    However, I did print out a list of funds that are administered by MSS and one caught my eye: the Matthews 25 Fund. It's YTD is at 28.23%. Anyone out there have or care to venture an opinion? $10,000 minimum, interesting statement from 2011. It's chart looks compelling as well. And Oceanstone? At the bottom of the sea right now, IMO. $10000 is a lot to part with, but the gains look great. It's a small fund, so it might be a good fit in MFO. Please, I could use an opinion here on a seldom followed fund.
  • Seafarer viability as a business
    Hi folks...new poster here.
    Similar to Kenster, I hold several Matthews funds including MACSX and MAPTX. I swapped MAPIX for SFGIX a short time ago. I hope to find Mr. Foster's comments illuminating relative to the original question as to viability, as this has been a personal concern for a few weeks.
    Two points:
    A comment was made comparing SFGIX with Eric Cinnamond's fund, ARIVX. Given the fact that Mr. Cinnamond joined a fairly well established asset management firm, I believe a more apt comparison might be to the Grandeur Peak funds...a new firm created by a few Wasatch boys. I hold the Global option, GPGOX.
    They opened 2 funds in October of last year, as readers of this forum would certainly know.
    New firm...new funds...but now with almost $240M under management.
    Secondly, and unfortunately for Mr. Foster, I think that fund flows may be light for the remainder of the year given my interpretation of investor behavior.
    If someone wants a foothold in the foreign/EM space off the beaten track and doesn't read all available materials, I do believe that the average investor would consider Matthews over Seafarer for this role if comparing the funds side by side...for the overly simplistic reason that they would do a YTD comparison of the funds.
    SFGIX launched in the latter part of February of this year....when the lion's share of Matthew's gains were already made when looking at the month by month returns.
  • Megacap and Allstar investor
    Hi Andrei,
    Thanks for expounding more upon this, it is indeed appreciated as I would like to learn more on what Hulber has to offer. Could you please provide a link to Hulbert's commentary and his assesment? In this way, I know I am reading the right detail and the same that you formulated your perspective from.
    Andrei, I hope you have a great afternoon. It is a pleasant day here in Carolina ... Blue sky, and temperatures in the 70's. So for me, it is off to the golf course for a Sunday afternoon scramble with my golfing friends. I'll be back and check the board this evening in hopes I can be read more on Hulbert's comments about Mr. Rowland. A link would be of a great aid in me doing this.
    My thoughts of Mr. Rowland are not fixed by any means ... and, are subject to be changed, if warranted. But, for of now ... His Leadership Strategy that I frequently reference and use ... Well, it is one of his strategies that I feel has done right for me. I indeed find it a useful tool in moving some of my ballast money around ... and, it is free with no fee as with his other strategies that he has formulated and sells. Sometimes the simple strategies turn out to be the best. And, as you have found out a strategy works until it doesn't work anymore because the table has become crowded by too many investors using it. After all, market conditions do change and strategies that were employed during these prevailing conditions no longer seem to apply with intendended production results that they once did ... and/or, too many began to employ them. Therefore, one needs to be on alert to spot strategies that might be going dead.
    Again, I am sorry to learn of your losses ... but, I am afraid loss of principal is a part of investing as investing does entail some risk taking. Uncle Sam does allow for a deduct for investment loss on his annual income and tax reporting forms that most of us have to file each year. Perhaps, this might afford you some small relief. I know this first hand as I have filed for loss relief myself at times on my own tax returns. In the long run though, I am net positive and I have to pay on my net realized net gains after taking into account losses. Thus far, I am usually net positive each year ... although I am carrying over some booked losses form the great recession. I guess, a lot of us still are. Perhaps, a tax accountant can provide you more information on this.
    Andrei, I hope you have a pleasant afternoon and may the sun shine upon you.
    Cordially,
    Skeeter
  • Marsico Flexible Capital (MFCFX) - Fund mgr change: What are you doing ?
    Note only that but numerous Analysts have left too.
    From M*
    =====
    Doug Rao, manager of Marsico Flexible Capital (MFCFX) and comanager of flagship funds Marsico Growth (MGRIX) and Marsico Focus (MFOCX), is leaving Marsico Capital Management on July 20, 2012. His is the latest in a series of departures from the firm over the last two years. Jordan Laycob and Munish Malhotra, who've been at the firm since 1997 and 2004, respectively, will comanage Flexible Capital. Firm founder Tom Marsico remains lead manager and Coralie Witter comanager on Growth and Focus. Joshua Rubin, a comanager on Marsico Emerging Markets (MERGX), also announced he was departing.
    Rao joined Marsico Capital Management in 2005 and moved up the ranks quickly, taking over as manager of Flexible Capital in 2007. He made ample use of that fund's go-anywhere mandate, holding roughly 20% in cash in 2008 and one third of assets in non-United States stocks, including some emerging-markets picks, in 2009. Such moves helped fuel the fund's dazzling gains compared with its large-growth peers--as well as the world allocation category average--during his five-year tenure. Following Cory Gilchrist's departure last fall, Rao was the firm's most experienced U.S. equity manager after Marsico.
    Rao's successors are less experienced. Laycob has been a Marsico analyst since 1997 and the firm's sole fixed-income specialist, but he's never run a fund before. Malhotra has been a comanager of the $5 million Marsico Emerging Markets fund since its late 2010 inception, but that fund has lagged its diversified emerging-markets peers and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since its birth and it has seen a lot of manager turnover. Rubin, who had been a manager on Marsico Emerging Markets since 2010, resigned just two months after comanager Charlie Wilson left the firm.
    Turnover has also struck the analyst team. Seven team members who joined between 2003 and 2008 have left since 2010. Five new analysts came on board since last year, but only one had previous investment experience. The firm's troubles attracting and retaining talented investors coincides with financial woes. Marsico bought his firm back from Bank of America (BAC) in a highly leveraged deal in 2007, just before the 2008 market meltdown and investor outflows depleted the firm's asset base. As a result, the company restructured its debt in 2010. The firm's inability to retain and attract experienced investors has undermined investor confidence. Indeed, the firm is on pace for its fourth straight calendar year of significant outflows. Since 2008 through the end of June 2012 the firm has seen more than $5 billion leave its mutual funds and has lost outside subadvisory deals. Recently, John Hancock fired Marsico as the subadvisor for John Hancock Funds II International Opportunities (JIIOX), citing disappointing performance. John Hancock has hired a team at Invesco led by Clas Olsson to replace Marsico and eventually plans to merge the fund into John Hancock Funds II International Growth Stock (JGSNX), which Olsson and his team have managed since 2010.