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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Global Dividend Fund?
    Reply to @David_Snowball: we've had an infrastructure fund for several years now... quite illiquid, hard to value (you're investing in operating companies), PE-like investment with not so impressive returns. i would NOT suggest one. capital losses could wipe out any yield advantage.
  • Global Dividend Fund?
    Reply to @David_Snowball:
    David, I'm skeptical. Although these are interesting, I would be cautious of new unproven investments. This sort of investments bring my mind the Canal build-up and bust in England and Railroad build-up and subsequent bankruptcies in USA. A more recent example is Motorola's investment in Iridium satellite phone project. Motorola has lost huge amount of money in this project. It became profitable only after the original Iridium company gone bankrupt and some enterprising group got the assets pennies on the dollar. Then they made money on it but not the original investors.
    I would not invest in funds that are going to undertake huge amount of capital investment with little guarantee of return on the capital. I think MLP and Utility investments and REITs are sufficient for income investors and for the bonds side, municipal bonds are issued for this sort of infrastructure developments.
  • Our Funds Boat, week, -.05%, YTD, +5.31%, + XRAY, 7-16-11, TURD PILE QUALITY
    Reply to @hank:
    Howdy hank, Thank you for your gracious comment; and you are to be commended, too; for your efforts.
    I'll do the "you wrote" and >>>>> for a reply.
    "Catch, in the past you have billed as a "conservative/capital preservation" approach.
    >>>>>I feel the holdings are fairly conservative; although a very large batch of HY/HI income is very subject to credit quality/risk and equity market moves; but generally at a slower face slap, which would hopefully buy some time for an unload.
    I must ask, your knowing that we have about a 45% exposure to HY/HI bonds as to whether our holdings, in your eyes; are more than conservative? I would appreciate your viewpoint.
    "The "turd quality" reference makes me wonder if your goals and methodology have changed?
    >>>>>Our goals or methods have not changed; and the "turd quality" is related more to the chat about the U.S. debt and the hugh amount of Treasury issues that are floating around. However, there are many more issues of debt around the globe that have a much worse odor than here, and regardless of the debt talks and the circus in D.C.; if there is safe hiding to take place from market conditions, I feel U.S. Treasury issues would still have priority for many small and large investors.
    "I post to provide hope to those conservative fund investors who like myself lag your sterling performance this year. They should not be dismayed if they fall short.
    >>>>>Ah, the beauty part of FA and now MFO. To allow all of us to swish around the thoughts that are written here. With enough time the smallest phrase or just one work may be of great value in the future as one adds to knowledge, which may in turn become intuitive knowledge for investing decisions. Not unlike having tried 50 restaurants, 3 or 4 times each and soon enough one may have an intuitive/memory list of the proper future choices.
    "Up against two long time board favorites which fall into the conservative/balanced/go anywhere category, you lag only fractionally: OAKBX is at 5.48% and PRWCX is at 5.42%. Neither likely holds near 15% cash as you do which may account for the difference. T. Rowe Price is known as one of the smartest for allocation decisions. You easily trump all of their retirement funds. Here's a few with YTD performance:
    TRRIX Retirement Income 4.13
    TRRFX Retirement 2005 4.41
    TRRGX Retirment 2015 4.63
    TRRBX Retirement 2020 4.68
    TRRCX Retirement 2030 4.86
    TRRDX Retirement 2040 4.82
    Some additional T Rowe Price funds for comparison:
    RPIBX International Bond 5.48
    PRHYX High Yield Fund 5.01
    PRULX Long Term Treasury 4.28
    PRWBX Short Term Bond 1.46
    RPSIX Spectrum Income 4.05
    >>>>>When I moved monies in late January of this year, I noted to my wife that I felt that whatever was not placed into truly active investments at the time would be "PIMCO'd"; meaning the cash not used would be placed into our easiest access to a non-cash acct at Fido and that would have been FINPX. TIPS, a very common pseudo cash place for Pimco funds. Our cash to use for other funds has always been parked in some type of fairly stable bond fund. Well, obviously; while watching the markets this spring and early summer, this did not happen; and I regret the waiting. Add to the list of investment missteps, eh??? Now, we watch and wait on D.C. for the bigger plan...:)
    "You must find following 26 funds challenging. I typically hold 12-15, not counting money market, and that seems frustratingly high. BTW, what are the provisions for owning TEGBX load free? I ask because our old work place plan was with Templeton/Franklin Templeton and we paid a onerous 4%. I commend you for these outstanding returns. My own pale in comparison being consistent with my benchmark, TRRIX. (Actually I'm lagging them by 0.10%, but, than again, they are the professionals.) Take care.
    >>>>>Following the funds is not too bad. I have a "pretend" portfolio set at Google and view it each evening looking for trends or common moves. I also watch several ETF's to give a feel for sector movements. Example: If the HY/HI funds/sectors really start to look ill; then I would likely start to reduce holdings of all similar funds.
    TEGBX is a choice in a 403B acct set up through an insurance company (ARGH !)...not our preference, but there is no fixing that. I checked again today to assure my brain cells and the load is waived and the total internal fee of the fund to us is .79%. 'Course these type of funds via insurance companies are for their use to the customer; but are pretty much twins to the product offered to the outside/retail investor and the returns have very small variances.
    And hats off to you for your efforts. We all may have a 5% or 25% year....tricky boating so far.
    Take care of you and yours....and, hey; go jump in the lake, eh? Stay cool !
    Catch
  • Our Funds Boat, week, -.05%, YTD, +5.31%, + XRAY, 7-16-11, TURD PILE QUALITY
    Catch, your 5.31% YTD for what in the past you have billed as a "conservative/capital preservation" approach is truly amazing. The "turd quality" reference makes me wonder if your goals and methodology have changed? I post to provide hope to those conservative fund investors who like myself lag your sterling performance this year. They should not be dismayed if they fall short.
    Up against two long time board favorites which fall into the conservative/balanced/go anywhere category, you lag only fractionally: OAKBX is at 5.48% and PRWCX is at 5.42%. Neither likely holds near 15% cash as you do which may account for the difference. T. Rowe Price is known as one of the smartest for allocation decisions. You easily trump all of their retirement funds. Here's a few with YTD performance:
    TRRIX Retirement Income 4.13
    TRRFX Retirement 2005 4.41
    TRRGX Retirment 2015 4.63
    TRRBX Retirement 2020 4.68
    TRRCX Retirement 2030 4.86
    TRRDX Retirement 2040 4.82
    Some additional T Rowe Price funds for comparison:
    RPIBX International Bond 5.48
    PRHYX High Yield Fund 5.01
    PRULX Long Term Treasury 4.28
    PRWBX Short Term Bond 1.46
    RPSIX Spectrum Income 4.05
    You must find following 26 funds challenging. I typically hold 12-15, not counting money market, and that seems frustratingly high. BTW, what are the provisions for owning TEGBX load free? I ask because our old work place plan was with Templeton/Franklin Templeton and we paid a onerous 4%. I commend you for these outstanding returns. My own pale in comparison being consistent with my benchmark, TRRIX. (Actually I'm lagging them by 0.10%, but, than again, they are the professionals.) Take care.
  • Our Funds Boat, week, -.05%, YTD, +5.31%, + XRAY, 7-16-11, TURD PILE QUALITY
    Howdy,
    No big chit-chat this week; and no buys or sells; as we are awaiting the unknowns from D.C. and how the market big kids react. It appears the bond traders are not too concerned as of yet, as the 30 year Treasury and other issue periods are maintaining; without yields moving to higher numbers. One may suppose that when looking around the globe and concerns of the U.S. debt pile, that the U.S. debt turd pile still smells the best of all the global debt turd piles (the other two best of the bunch would include German and Japanese debt). If you have not been downwind from any type of animal farm, I will assure you that given the choice among cattle, pigs or chickens; turd pile smells do indeed have a scale of best to worse. Such is life, eh?
    The portfolio and a M* breakdown are below for your reference.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
    Not pure science numbers with this; but we hold 15 bond funds and equity funds with bond holdings; some being a much larger % of total holdings than others...but here are some rough numbers for combined yields:
    ---5 HY/HI funds avg. yield = 7.4%
    ---10 mixed/multi sector funds avg. yield = 4.5%
    ---All 15 bond funds avg. yield = 5.5%
    The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, the M* breaddown is at the end of this write; and a bit more realtistic, although with flaws, too.
    CASH = 14.6%
    Mixed bond funds = 78%
    Equity funds = 7.4%
    -Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 18.5%
    -HY/HI bond funds 28.4%
    -Total bond funds 14.6%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 7.4%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    DHOAX Delaware HY (front load waived)
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
    FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
    FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
    FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
    RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
    FDVLX Fidelity Value
    FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
    FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
    .......MORNINGSTAR PORTFOLIO VIEW below.......
    Asset Class %
    Cash 12.28
    U.S. Stock 13.12
    Foreign Stock 4.05
    Bond 62.97
    Other 7.58
    Not Classified 0.00

    Stock Style %
    Large Value 11.01
    Large Core 14.47
    Large Growth 29.64
    Mid-Cap Value 12.57
    Mid-Cap Core 7.75
    Mid-Cap Growth 7.60
    Small Value 6.78
    Small Core 4.67
    Small Growth 5.40
    Not Classified 0.10
    Stock Sector Portfolio %
    Cyclical 68.79
    Basic Materials 5.51
    Consumer Cyclical 58.36
    Financial Services 2.89
    Real Estate 2.03
    Defensive 9.54
    Consumer Defensive 5.51
    Healthcare 3.75
    Utilities 0.27
    Sensitive 21.67
    Communication Services 2.57
    Energy 7.45
    Industrials 3.59
    Technology 8.06
    Not Classified 0.00
    Stock Type Portfolio % VS S&P 500
    High Yield 0.11 0.23
    Distressed 3.57 0.67
    Hard Assets 6.91 13.29
    Cyclical 69.64 43.93
    Slow Growth 5.14 14.80
    Classic Growth 0.75 6.73
    Aggressive Growth 5.52 16.15
    Speculative Growth 0.87 1.98
    Not Classified 7.50 2.22
    Fees & Expenses Average Mutual Fund Expense Ratio (%) 0.75
    World Regions %
    North America 61.02
    UK/Western Europe 4.20
    Japan 0.87
    Latin America 2.33
    Asia ex-Japan 1.83
    Other 0.30
    Not Classified 29.45 (AAARRRGGGHHH !!!!!)
    Stock Stats Average for This Portfolio Relative to S&P 500 (1.00=S&P)
    Price/Earnings Forward 14.46 1.03
    Price/Book Ratio 2.14 1.02
    Return on Asset (ROA) 7.74 0.91
    Return on Equity (ROE) 18.47 0.88
    Project Earnings Growth-5 Yr (%) 12.77 1.29
    Yield (%) 4.38 2.58
    Avg Market Capitalization ($ mil) 10,260.29 0.20
    Bond Style %
    High-Quality Short-Term 0.00
    High-Quality Intermed-Term 0.00
    High-Quality Long-Term 0.00
    Medium-Quality Short-Term 3.53
    Medium-Quality Intermed-Term 14.77
    Medium-Quality Long-Term 0.00
    Low-Quality Short-Term 16.10
    Low-Quality Intermed-Term 33.45
    Low-Quality Long-Term 5.28
    Not Classified 26.88 (AAARRRGGGHHH !!!!!)
  • NARFX Mr. Snowball?
    Thanks guys. Was out of town on business. TFSMX I will not buy since I can't buy it. I don't do load = one of the things that goes against my religion.
    And I own both FPACX and NARFX. Heck I also own HSGFX.
    Looking at MFLDX very closely. Regarding volatility, I'm fine with it. I don't equate it to risk. I view permanent loss of capital as risk. FPACX and HSGFX are both good insulating against that. When these funds charts start looking bad, I put some more money in. Has worked reasonably well for me. Did the same with NARFX actually, only it didn't work out.
    Another candidate is FMLSX.
  • PETDX, I'd sure like to watch the day to day.....
    Hi catch22, I'd like to ask you some questions if you don't mind. How long have you owned PETDX? How has the funds performance done over that time frame, namely, if you started with $10,000 or $5,000 or whatever....have you made some gains? Any NAV erosion? Has the fund been a positive performer? Would you recommend it?
  • How much longer do I give Vanguard Capital Opportunity (VHCOX)?
    Long time reader (great discussions!) who is seeking advice one of my best ever long-time holdings - VHCOX. I have held VHCOX since 1998 and have enjoyed index-beating returns (albeit with some huge drops along the way). And yet my patience is wearing thin. It's risk-adjusted performance over the past 3 years is mediocre. How much time to I give to a 13-year holding that has served me well (in the past)?
    If VHCOX needs to be retired from my portfolio (with a grateful sendoff), what would be an equivalent type replacement? Perhaps VOT (Vanguard Midcap Growth) or VUG (Vanguard Growth)?
    What say you?
    Mike E.
  • Can You Help Me Understand Daily Changes in PRPFX?
    Hi Kathy. For the heck of it, below is a portfolio from Seeking Alpha that supposedly duplicates Permanent Portfolio. It of course isn't exact, but you can see where the losses from yesterday (growth stocks, nat resources, silver, real estate) out weigh the gains from treasuries and gold. I think PRPFX was actually down more than this look-a-like portfolio, but probably because of stock selection.
    Hope this data looks okay after I post comment:
    Name tick %/portf 1 day return
    Vanguard Growth Stock ETF VUG 15% -0.30%
    iShares S&P N Amer Nat Res IGE 10% -0.25%
    iShares Silver Trust SLV 5% -0.12%
    iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate IYR 5% -0.10%
    iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tr Bond SHY 15% 0.01%
    CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust FXF 10% 0.01%
    iShares iBoxx Invest Gr Corp Bd LQD 5% 0.02%
    SPDR Gold Shares GLD 20% 0.18%
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Tr Bd TLT 15% 0.22%
    TOTAL RETURN -0.32%
    P.S.: I actually have this in a M* portfolio so that I can watch the parts of this fund - one of my favorite funds.
  • Bonds v. Stocks
    Reply to @MJG:
    Hi Skipper,
    In my haste to reply to your posting last night, I neglected to reference a book that suits your evolving investment philosophy and style to a capital “T”.
    At this juncture in your investment career, you are, knowingly or not, a passively managed Index investor. Of course that is easily changed if your studies, your circumstances, your goals, your wealth, and/or your risk adversity profile matures. Almost nothing is permanent in the investment world.
    The book I failed to reference is by Daniel Solin. It is presumptuously titled “The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read”. It is Not that. But it is an excellent introduction for the newbie investor that supports the investment strategy that perhaps you inadvertently adopted. It will give you some comfort in that it documents that your present investments are one way along a successful financial pathway.
    There are other equally attractive and rewarding paths to financial security. Your current portfolio is an inexpensive, low cost way to achieve your target objectives. Legendary John Bogle would fully endorse your decisions now.
    Another benefit of such a simple portfolio strategy is that it permits you to abandon the need for a paid advisor. With just a little time commitment, you can do that job with a much more complete understanding of your needs and fears than any advisor could ever supply.
    The Solin book is only 166 pages long including appendices. The appendices provide a simple asset allocation questionnaire and a risk/reward summary. The book is available in a paperback edition.
    Do as much investment learning as time permits. If time does not permit, make it so. The learning will be as rewarding as the accumulating profits. And please become as familiar with statistical concepts as your mathematical skill set allows. Statistical representations of market performance are ubiquitous within the investment industry and a required input when making financial decisions. Your familiarity with statistics will contribute to better sleeping, since its application will keep you in your comfort zone.
    I have confidence that you are on a solid investment pathway. Keep trucking.
  • Bonds v. Stocks
    Hi Skipper,
    You stated that your goal is a capital preservation portfolio. Your original all-equity portfolio surely does not satisfy that objective, as you painfully learned in 2008. The portfolio was constructed for maximum likely returns without controlling for risk. For example, the US equity market generates positive returns about 70 % of the time on an annual basis.
    That’s acceptable for a 30-year old with a few decades before retirement, but is probably not a wise plan for a retiree or a near-retiree. By diversifying into US equity, International equity, and bond mutual funds you have made your portfolio more risk insensitive. That’s a closer approximation to satisfy your investment goal. Congratulations for that decision.
    However, as Milton Friedman observed “There are no free lunches”. There is a tradeoff between risk and reward. In general, to reduce the risk of a market downturn, it is necessary to accept a lower likely annual return. But adroit asset allocation is as close to a free lunch as is possible in the investment universe.
    By allocating resources among various asset classes, it is possible to approximately maintain the annual returns of an all-equity US portfolio while simultaneously substantially reducing the risky aspects of a portfolio (its volatility). This is usually accomplished by using asset classes that are not perfectly correlated with each other.
    Correlation is statistically measured by something called a correlation coefficient. For two investments, correlation coefficients run a spectrum from minus One to plus One. A correlation coefficient of plus One means that the two investments move Up and Down in perfect synch; a correlation coefficient of minus One means that the two investments are perfectly out of synch with one generating positive returns while the other produces negative results. A correlation coefficient of Zero means that the two investments behave in a random, uncoordinated manner relative to each other.
    When asset allocation is fully exploited, it is possible to maintain the annual return of an all equity portfolio at about one-half of the volatility. In 2008, instead of suffering a 40 % decline, a well-diversified portfolio might have reduced losses to one-half or one-third that level. Not perfect, but a major improvement.
    Correlation coefficients are dynamic and change over time. Historically, bonds have a correlation coefficient that varies from 0.2 to 0.4 relative to US equities. Foreign equities further diversify a portfolio because its correlation relative to US stocks is typically in the 0.5 to 0.8 range. Gold and other hard assets often have correlation coefficients that are neutral or slightly negative to US equity holdings.
    Your 3-holding group goes a long way to achieving an efficient portfolio, but the addition of other asset classes would improve its risk control.
    Since you are using passively managed products and are paying an advisor, you must be a relative novice at the investment game. Nothing wrong with that; we all were at that place at some time in our investment careers. You’ll learn by reading investment books and by visiting websites.
    To get you started in the book arena, I suggest you get a copy of Professor Burton Malkiel’s introductory book “The Random Walk Guide to Investing”. It’s a breezy 184-page book that will be a useful guide at this stage in your investment development.
    To see the benefits of asset allocation on a parametric level, I suggest that you visit Paul Merriman's fine website. It offers some excellent articles and provides a table that demonstrates how portfolio returns and volatility change as a function of various percentages of bond and equity holdings. The Link follows immediately.
    http://www.merriman.com/PDFs/FineTuning.pdf
    Please visit the site. I promise that you will learn something about portfolio management and risk control.
    Please do not worry about the portfolio returns and correlations on a daily basis. If you do, you will never sleep peacefully and the portfolio is too risky for your stated purposes.
    Good luck.
    Best Wishes.
  • NWGAX or NVOAX - Help me decide !!!
    VF - I understand what you're saying but I was trying to clarify his possible investments in privately managed accounts.
    I'm still not clear --- do the SAI's spell out what the fund manager has invested in privately managed accounts or not? That's something I'm trying to clarify.
    The opposite is also true - there are many funds that the managers invest in that I also wouldn't invest in either.
    Here's another example --- I'm interested in Greenblatt's Formula investing funds on their own merit with or without Greenblatt's personal investment in them or not. Even if the documents show that he has $0 invested in these funds, I'd still be interested because I know that his Gotham Capital firm uses the same investing technique but in a much more concentrated way. I'm really not expecting Greenblatt to dump millions, tens of thousands or any of his personal money into these Formula funds and it would have nothing to do with his confidence in them. Quite the contrary --- he is quite confident in his Formula investing strategy that he would prefer to do it in a more concentrated way, much much more so than what the diversified retail mutual fund does....and he's been doing it for many years. So just because a Formula Investing SAI doc may show Greenblatt as having squat or nothing invested in his Formula mutual funds - I'm not going to immediately discount them because of what I just mentioned.
    His retail Formula investing funds based on a value weighted Formula index (http://valueweightedindex.com/) is just merely a less volatile and much more diversified retail offering of what he's already been doing personally and at Gotham for many, many years. I personally see no need for him to move any of his personal money into the Formula investing funds....it has absolutely nothing to do with lack of confidence or conviction in having his skin-in-the-game alongside investors.
    So that's an example of a case-by-case basis I have to look at as part of a broader picture.
  • Bonds v. Stocks
    Hi skipper,
    Others have noted valid ideas and thoughts.
    You wrote: "I just reallocated my IRA portfolio to three Vanguard index funds -- 50% Total Bond Market, 40% Total Stock Market and 10% Total International. I've never really followed or understood bond markets but my Vanguard adviser suggested this simple approach since I recently retired and seek capital preservation, a good night's sleep and to avoid a replay of the painful 2008 crash which saw my all-equities 401K plunge by about 40%. With the wild volatility of this past week, my bonds fund grows on days of sharp Dow downturns, and on the days the Dow gained, my bond fund declined. Is this a typical pattern I should expect for the longer term? Is there ever a scenario where both funds grow on the same day? Or maybe that's just still the greed lurking in me and I need to learn to love stability, sort of."
    My 2 cents: Relative to the Vanguard Total Bond index, VBMFX; as I will presume this is the index being used; do not confuse this index with a multi-sector bond fund/index or otherwise. The name "Total" for any fund/index needs to have the holdings looked at, as well as the prospectus to determine what the Total really means.
    VBMFX is similar to the Fidelity Total Bd fund, FTBFX we hold and both really need to be named as Total, U.S. high quality, gov't and corporate bond index/fund.
    Both will be subject to dowside pressure when interest rates increase, but if the rate change is slow, which I feel will be the case, these should also adjust slowly and maintain their values. The V Total bd index has a better 10 year return vs the V Total stk mkt index, related of course; to the market melt of 2008. You will find a .57% increase in the bond index last Friday. This was due to the poor jobs report and monies moving to a safer zone in gov't bonds and away from equities. You will find this bond index to be most happy when their is turmoil and uncertainity in the global and U.S. equity markets and/or political/military problems.
    The V Total Stock is U.S. large cap blend and the V Total Int'l is foreign large cap blend. (per M* data)
    This mix should be okay, but needs to be monitored, too. All 3 being named total means in this case, TOTAL to the aspect of the style/nature of each index. They are not total in regards to their name implications; as the indexes are not spread across multi sectors/cap sizes, etc. I recall (prior FA postings) your having other holdings aside from your IRA; so it is difficult to know how these 3 V indexes fit into your other holdings.
    This write is not a critisism of these holdings and/or you choices; but only to be aware of the holdings and how they may fit into your other investment areas.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Our Funds Boat, week, +.51%, YTD, +5.36%, no changes, EOM, 7-9-11
    Hi John,
    You wrote:
    "what do plan to do when rates increased and eq2 endings.
    >>>>>If rates are increasing in the U.S., hopefully this would be because of stronger economic activity and the result of folks actually borrowing money again, etc; or the bond vigilantes are slamming the debt problem. QE2 is officially ended, but not other actions available to the Fed for keeping rates low. The last thing Mr. Bernanke wants is deflation...
    are you concerned about debt ceiling and many other blackswans out there?
    >>>>>I was concerned about the "debt" from many, many years ago. However, the greater problem today with the debt and the debt ceiling is the individual and business strength and ability to support these two items....as I have noted before, this in not my grandparents or parents economy, nor the one I started and have worked in. The "credit card" is far overspent. As to black swans, well I suspect many of us watch for these. The trick will be knowing when one has arrived and how soon one may take actions to protect the investment assets.
    are you concerned about double dip? what is the best strategies to protect your 100% bond portfolio asset?"
    >>>>>I suppose a double dip would have to be in the eyes of the beholder or economist. Would it require a market melt as in 2008? I still believe the recovery road will be slow and could dip to some other lower point that would keep many unhappy. As to our portfolio, it has not been 100% bonds for some time and the MFO link just below will take you to last weeks post that you may have missed which includes an M* view of our portfolio. As far as a strategy to protect our portfolio......the mix in place is designed to protect and/or preserve our capital. If a melt shows its ugly head, one may only hope to be in sync with this and take appropriate actions. The 2008 melt favored either cash or Treasury issues. I don't know that this would be much different again.
    Regards,
    Catch
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/index.php?p=/discussion/757/our-funds-boat-week-.77-ytd-4.85-xray-7-3-11/p1
  • NARFX Mr. Snowball?
    I think what I found distressing about Leuthold was his appearances on Bloomberg last year touting all of the investment opportunities out there while his fund was at or near last place in the category at the same time. Not comparing, but Bill Miller was doing the same thing and in the same spot. I continue to be a fan of Romick and FPA Crescent - there has been some discussion of asset bloat at this fund, but I think Romick is a highly intelligent and reasonable manager who quietly and consistently does well. I also like the conference calls for FPA and, on a more personal level, really agree with their worldview.
    The funny thing about BOPAX/BAEIX is that I'd never heard of the company at all - however, George Shipp sounded familiar. I'd looked at Shipp's funds when they were called BB & T. Not that I was particularly interested in investing with BB & T (and didn't), but Shipp's funds (which included BB & T Equity Income) actually had pretty good track records.
    Apparently, at some point the funds were offloaded to Sterling Capital, which is apparently a subsidiary of BB & T (and Shipp's company is the subadvisor to his funds there). They are not long/short funds (MFLDX would be a good choice in that category) and they are load funds, but as long-only equity funds go, Shipp has a rather good track record.
    I think the issue would be Sterling Capital Management; I'd be curious about the extent of the relationship between it and BB & T.
  • Bonds v. Stocks
    I just reallocated my IRA portfolio to three Vanguard index funds -- 50% Total Bond Market, 40% Total Stock Market and 10% Total International. I've never really followed or understood bond markets but my Vanguard adviser suggested this simple approach since I recently retired and seek capital preservation, a good night's sleep and to avoid a replay of the painful 2008 crash which saw my all-equities 401K plunge by about 40%. With the wild volatility of this past week, my bonds fund grows on days of sharp Dow downturns, and on the days the Dow gained, my bond fund declined. Is this a typical pattern I should expect for the longer term? Is there ever a scenario where both funds grow on the same day? Or maybe that's just still the greed lurking in me and I need to learn to love stability, sort of. Thanks.
  • The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Even Worse
    http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/markets/the-next-financial-crisis-will-be-even-worse-1309984020176/?cid=djem_sm_dailyviews_h
    http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/why-dividend-growth-stocks-beat-high-yielding-stocks.html
    also invest with an edge wkly commentary
    Editor's Corner
    Greek Crisis Takes The Summer Off
    Ron Rowland
    Wide daily swings are taking a toll on investor nerves. The quick reversals can be blamed on several factors: fear vs. greed, risk on/off, or just trader mood swings. The net result is visible in rising volatility, both daily and weekly. The S&P 500, while looking overall bullish, needs to digest recent gains and calm down a bit.
    Greece received a temporary reprieve, but the danger of default is far from over. Now the rest of the so-called PIIGS nations are coming back into the spotlight. Today Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s sovereign debt to junk-bond status. Ireland, Italy and Spain aren’t safe, either. We suspect the crisis will heat up again about the time the weather cools down in Europe this fall.
    Economic indicators are still mixed. In the last week we saw construction spending drop, consumer sentiment go nowhere, and manufacturing activity increase. The next big data point will be this Friday’s June payroll report, which is expected to be sluggish. Quarterly earnings data, which starts flowing next week, may provide some additional insight.
    Treasury bonds dropped hard, yielding bad news for long-term bond funds. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV), for instance, fell more than 6% between June 23 and yesterday’s close. Income investors who stretched for yield are learning the hard way that higher principal risk is part of the deal, in bonds as well as equities.
    Sectors
    Consumer Discretionary moved up to take first place in our sector rankings. As the name implies, stocks in this group rely on “non-necessary” consumer spending. For them to do so well with the economy so weak seems odd. We won’t be surprised to see a slide down the chart soon. Telecom held on to second place. Health Care had a solid week but slipped to third place as other sectors proved even stronger. A surge in copper and other industrial commodity prices pushed Materials up to the #4 position. Defensive sectors lost relative strength, but Financials still owns the bottom of the list.
    Styles
    Seven days ago only one Style category had positive momentum. Now all eleven are pointed up. The gains were distributed more or less evenly, so relative positions did not change much. Small and Mid Caps still dominate the upper half while Large and Mega Caps are lagging. Once again we see a noticeable difference between Growth and Value. The market clearly favors Growth for now, with all three Growth categories well ahead of their Value counterparts. Being on the right side of Growth/Value is more important than cap size at this point.
    Global
    The top three world markets are tightly bunched, but one has to lead. This week’s winner is Japan. In terms of relative strength, Japan has gone from bottom to top in less than four months while making virtually no forward progress. The U.S. slipped to #3 but is not far behind. The World Equity category is wedged in between its two largest components at second place. Emerging Markets and Latin America kept their relative positions while moving into bullish trends. Europe had a noticeable bounce but relative position improved only slightly. China was the week’s big loser. A feeble bounce paled in comparison to the rest of the world, and today’s rate hike provided more downside pressure. China now sits in last place both in the Global rankings and overall, with even worse momentum than the U.S.
  • Huh? Lower Class Doubleline Gains More Yesterday than Higher Class?
    Now I'm really confused. I exchanged my lower class DLTNX to DBLTX a couple weeks ago. Just noticed today that yesterday DLTNX went up 0.27%, but DBLTX only went up 0.18%. Am I having a senior moment and missing something obvious?
  • Our Funds Boat, week, +.77%, YTD, +4.85%, + XRAY, 7-3-11
    Howdy,
    A little different flavor with this post, which includes a Morningstar Portfolio view of the holdings listed. This will allow a better look at the overall mix. RNCOX was added last week. The dividend will offset the high expense and hopefully the managers will provide a decent profit using the tools available to this unique fund. At the very worst, if this fund/market goes puff for a period; one could sell down to the $1000 minimum holding without doing severe damage to an overall portfolio. Several of our bond funds had welcome distributions at the end of June. Still looking ahead to the D.C. folks and what becomes of debt issues laying upon their laps; and how the markets may react to the outcome. We will likely hold our cash position into late August. Okay, this is all for now. Back outside to enjoy a most lovely summer evening in our part of MI.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
    Not pure science numbers with this; but we hold 15 bond funds and equity funds with bond holdings; some being a much larger % of total holdings than others...but here are some rough numbers for combined yields:
    ---5 HY/HI funds avg. yield = 7.4%
    ---10 mixed/multi sector funds avg. yield = 4.5%
    ---All 15 bond funds avg. yield = 5.5%
    The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, the M* breaddown is at the end of this write; and a bit more realtistic, although with flaws, too.
    CASH = 14.6%
    Mixed bond funds = 78%
    Equity funds = 7.4%
    -Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 18.5%
    -HY/HI bond funds 28.4%
    -Total bond funds 14.6%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 7.4%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    DHOAX Delaware HY (front load waived)
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
    FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
    FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
    FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
    RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
    FDVLX Fidelity Value
    FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
    FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
    .......MORNINGSTAR PORTFOLIO VIEW below.......
    Asset Class %
    Cash 12.28
    U.S. Stock 13.12
    Foreign Stock 4.05
    Bond 62.97
    Other 7.58
    Not Classified 0.00
    Stock Style %
    Large Value 11.01
    Large Core 14.47
    Large Growth 29.64
    Mid-Cap Value 12.57
    Mid-Cap Core 7.75
    Mid-Cap Growth 7.60
    Small Value 6.78
    Small Core 4.67
    Small Growth 5.40
    Not Classified 0.10
    Stock Sector Portfolio %
    Cyclical 68.79
    Basic Materials 5.51
    Consumer Cyclical 58.36
    Financial Services 2.89
    Real Estate 2.03
    Defensive 9.54
    Consumer Defensive 5.51
    Healthcare 3.75
    Utilities 0.27
    Sensitive 21.67
    Communication Services 2.57
    Energy 7.45
    Industrials 3.59
    Technology 8.06
    Not Classified 0.00
    Stock Type Portfolio % VS S&P 500
    High Yield 0.11 0.23
    Distressed 3.57 0.67
    Hard Assets 6.91 13.29
    Cyclical 69.64 43.93
    Slow Growth 5.14 14.80
    Classic Growth 0.75 6.73
    Aggressive Growth 5.52 16.15
    Speculative Growth 0.87 1.98
    Not Classified 7.50 2.22
    Fees & Expenses Average Mutual Fund Expense Ratio (%) 0.75
    World Regions %
    North America 61.02
    UK/Western Europe 4.20
    Japan 0.87
    Latin America 2.33
    Asia ex-Japan 1.83
    Other 0.30
    Not Classified 29.45 (AAARRRGGGHHH !!!!!)
    Stock Stats Average for This Portfolio Relative to S&P 500 (1.00=S&P)
    Price/Earnings Forward 14.46 1.03
    Price/Book Ratio 2.14 1.02
    Return on Asset (ROA) 7.74 0.91
    Return on Equity (ROE) 18.47 0.88
    Project Earnings Growth-5 Yr (%) 12.77 1.29
    Yield (%) 4.38 2.58
    Avg Market Capitalization ($ mil) 10,260.29 0.20
    Bond Style %
    High-Quality Short-Term 0.00
    High-Quality Intermed-Term 0.00
    High-Quality Long-Term 0.00
    Medium-Quality Short-Term 3.53
    Medium-Quality Intermed-Term 14.77
    Medium-Quality Long-Term 0.00
    Low-Quality Short-Term 16.10
    Low-Quality Intermed-Term 33.45
    Low-Quality Long-Term 5.28
    Not Classified 26.88