Howdy BobC,
" First, I agree that a person's investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon are the most important factors in deciding how much one should allocate to stocks. But I also think it is important to remember that we are near the end of a 30-year bull market for bonds. Interest rates will go up, whether quickly or not, or by how much, we do not know. But they will go up. Folks who own long-term Treasury funds, for example, could be seriously hurt when that happens."
>>>>>I am not aware of a method to determine that a given investment sector (I relate this to the U.S.) is about to end or begin from such a long time frame of moving in one direction or another. Who says that the 30 year bond bull is finished? I don't have a problem with monitoring commonly used items; such as 50 and 200 moving averages and related techinicals. I am familiar with the theories of those who note "wave" theories that deal with a variety of time frames within other time frames. I don't believe someone like Robert Pretcher has performed any better with his investment calls, versus this house since 1978. We all know there are far too many professional and bright minds who got their investment clocks cleaned in the market melt. Many of them could have used the most simple of methods of the 50/200 day moving averages to protect some of their investments.
"Folks who own long-term Treasury funds, for example, could be seriously hurt when that happens."
>>>>>Most assuredly. Not unlike any other investment sector.
"In the meantime, high-quality companies have dividend yields that a much more attractive than CDs and short-term Treasuries. Yes, they are indeed more volatile. But we would argue that in many ways stocks as a whole are more attractive than they have been in a long time, both for pricing and for macro reasons."
>>>>>I am sure there were many from 2007 right through the burn of Lehman; who continued to attempt to determine what is and/or was undervalued; until they found what undervalued really was into March of 2009.
"Certainly one option would be to use some alternative strategies (long-short, absolute return, etc.) to reduce overall portfolio volatility, which would allow, perhaps, for a greater stock allocation than one might otherwise consider."
>>>>>Yes, except our house will exclude the long-short group.
"The future is unknown, and there are always problems and potential disasters, but I am more positive for stocks' long-term potential than bonds, for sure. You can be conservative in your stock selection, and you can be aggressive. And there are so many good managers that have done a decent job of limiting downside."
>>>>>Ah, yes; the future! I will not disagree that there are and will continue to be equity and bond sectors that will have there day to allow we investors to be in the right place at the right time. I am speaking only to the aspect of the positive; as we currently do not use etf's to "short" a market move, although this is a possible path in the future with a small percentage of our assets.
I will note, that living in Michigan; but not being involved directly with the auto industry and all of the small related supportive companies and businesses, I watched as the largest impact changes started in the mid-1980's with the auto industry. For whatever reasons, I can reflect that both the unions and auto companies appeared not to understand the changes taking place. To this day, our house has and continues to benefit from "watching" the unwind of the manufacturing sector in Michigan and similar states. Michigan and many similar states were already in a downturn and unwind much ahead of the market melt in 2008.
I/we at this house continue to attempt to use Michigan as an economic model of change with the resulting after-effects. The state still has some manfacturing, is still a large producer of various agricultural products and tourist still draws a lot of money. I use as much of what Michigan "was" and what it has and will continue to become to measure what we see in other states, the U.S. overall and the major developed countries of the world. Michigan, of course; can not print money and must balance a budget; so there are some factors that one can not directly relate or measure against other areas or governments.
But, finding the various and most complex factors that are affecting Europe, which in turn affects all of the other connected economies; and even to the extent of watching a state like California dance around its problems; we try to mesh all of this together to obtain an investment plan.
Our house remains less optimistic related to the continued unwind. And the unwind/overhang is not being allowed to unwind properly, in my opinion. I understand the grand thoughts and plans of the politicians for various programs; and some could actually allow for a slow unwind. I became age 64 this month; and I do not know that I will live to see anything in this country that will reflect in a familiar economic pattern as to what I have seen in my life.
As to investing and where to be. Yes, we all have our plan based upon what we are best suited to attempt to understand of a most complex investment world. Some of the positive gains of our investments will indeed come from the luck of being in the right place at the right time; although we may place some of this luck to the value of learned experiences and the resulting intuition.
The perversion of so many factors that affect our investments will continue. U.S. bond prices/yields are perverted by intervention of the FED, with the "hope" of folks buying or refinancing homes from the very low mortgage rates. Will the bond traders eventually force the hand of low interest rates. It is totally possible. They have other places in which to play as of today. The unemployment numbers will likely continue to be perverted, too. I fully expect to find unemployment rates to continue to move downward, and there will shouts of joy and grand speeches; but the newly employed will be at a much lower pay scale and so the gains will not be so grand for the consumer or economy.
Well, one could write a small book here about all of this, eh? Our house will attempt to preserve capital with the tough task of adjusting risk to stay ahead of the inflation creep.
Bob C., thank you for your efforts and continued input to all here, at MFO. We all become wiser from the mixing of thoughts.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch

Hi Flack and MJG ... Skeeter here.
Perhaps MJG targeted this somewhat towards me as I have been one that has used the seasonal strategy for a good number of years and posted and referenced to it frquently. It is also one that my late father used as far back into the 50's. For sure, it does not work every year ... but, it has worked more times than not. Over the past three years I have made more than enough to live off of from just investing alone ... not, counting my earned income. The subject strategy was a contributor to these returns. I agree it is not for everyone ... but, it works for me and I plan to continue to utilize it. Is it one I'd bet the farm on? Absouetly not. But, it is one that I plan to continue to put a certain percentage of my portfolio into each year ... and, by following the technicals that Flack teaches investors ... If it gets too tough and has moves against you, simply stated, just exit it. Save your capital to invest for another day.
I wish you both the very best with your investment endeavors ... and, thank you both for your contributions. From my perspective, we all learn from one another.
Have a Good Day and Good Investing,
Skeeter

Thank you for the response and a very interesting discussion of the Laudus fund.
I'm seeing new generations of alternative strategies appear for retail investors - in terms of managed futures products, there was the Rydex Managed Futures fund (not actively managed, positions changed only once a month), then the AQR Managed Futures fund (actively managed), now you have funds that allocate to hedge funds/commodity trading advisors (Mutual Hedge Frontier Legends, Grant Park Managed Futures).
Now, new generations do not mean that they're any good, but they offer the retail investor a product with much more flexibility and greater potential (emphasis on potential) to keep up with the market. Additionally, in terms of some "all-weather" strategies like managed futures, consistent (minor) returns. Arbitrage funds are another.
In terms of long/short funds or "market neutral" funds, I suppose it comes down to management, timing and many other issues. One (well, I) can also lean towards issues with funds going long/short on various fundamental metrics in a market that's less and less about fundamentals. The structure of a mutual fund also makes me wonder if a lot of these "hedge fund" like strategies are also difficult to consistently pull off to any great degree without the ability to trade heavily in the manner of many hedge funds (most of whom are also getting paid 2 and 20).
Marketfield (MFLDX) is one long-short fund that's done well given that it doesn't take the short element of the strategy quite as seriously and has demonstrated use of varied levels of shorting to dial up/down risk, whereas many funds in the category appear to desire (or be required) to have a consistently higher level of short positions. Again, timing, but it's done well so far and demonstrated a pretty strong ability to make macro bets and time risk exposure.
In terms of an actual hedge fund, Greenlight RE (GLRE) is a reinsurance company whose float is invested with David Einhorn's hedge fund, Greenlight Capital. It's a roundabout way of investing in a hedge fund, but more liquid than some of the other options. More managers are looking into this structure to try for stable money. Not a hedge fund, but another remarkably successful company with this structure is Fairfax Financial (FRFHF.PK), whose investments are run by successful value investor Prem Watsa (who bet against subprime in 2008, resulting in a positive return for Fairfax.)
I don't think one should have a massive portion of one's portfolio in alternative strategies and there are going to be funds that are gimmicks (many of which will likely get weeded out at some point, as some weirder ETFs have that either don't get interest or instances where people simply lose interest after the initial hype) or just plain mediocre, but I think there is a place for some of the better funds out there in one's portfolio to offer more loosely correlated returns and provide somewhat of a balance.

Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for your information packed reply to my WSJ article reference on Hedge Fund-lite mutual fund alternatives. You certainly have studied mutual fund options in this arena. I’m sure many MFO participants will benefit from your insights.
I no longer invest in mutual fund Hedge Fund strategy simulators; their strategies are too complex and often too convoluted to satisfy my conservative mindset. I now prefer simple, transparent approaches that are easily understood. That was not the case a decade ago.
In the past, I seriously considered and actually purchased a fund that featured long and short position tactics. The fund that I owned for over five years was a Barr Rosenberg originated Laudus market neutral fund. Performance results were mixed; overall rewards disappointed; the approach was anchored in exotic analytical models that Rosenberg’s team developed to more automate the decision process. Timing for a fund employing a market neutral philosophy is a daunting task that not many have successfully conquered.
You may recall that Rosenberg was a mathematical wiz-kid who Peter Bernstein highlighted in his groundbreaking book “Capital Ideas”. Rosenberg integrated the concepts of Markowitz, Tobin, and Sharpe into realistic models for daily investment guidelines. In the 1970s, Rosenberg was a kingpin in risk management, both from an educational perspective and as an active money manager. BARRA is his invention and bears his name. He enjoyed great success, both professionally and personally.
After several iterations his surviving investment operation (AXA Rosenberg Group LLC) firm ran into a reporting transparency issue with Charles Schwab and suffered a setback in distribution and, especially, in public trust. That occurred a few years past with the Laudus Rosenberg Global Long/Short Equity (RMSIX) fund. The issue was some coding error that was not properly reported. I believe Barr Rosenberg is not formally engaged with the firms that he founded, and is essentially retired.
From a September 22 release titled “Axa’s Barr Rosenberg to Pay $2.5 Million SEC Fine, Is Banned From Industry” from the Bloomberg business news agency: “Axa Rosenberg Group LLC’s co- founder Barr M. Rosenberg agreed to pay $2.5 million to settle claims by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which accused him of securities fraud for concealing a coding error in his firm’s investment model.” He can easily afford the fine, but the ban certainly erodes and diminishes his stature as a financial founding father. Too bad.
I had abandoned the market neutral hedging concept a few years earlier. Timing both buys, sells, and shorts is just too challenging a chore. It just adds too many dimensions to the decision process, even when directed by a sophisticated model and coupled to a fast machine with ample computing power. I have never been impressed with the historical performance record delivered by the various market neutral approaches.
Once again, thank you for your well crafted and informative reply.
Best Wishes.

Hi Mark and good morning.
I beat you up this morning by about 30 minutes. It is now about 6:40 Eastern and the sun is now coming up over the Carolinas. I would say that the answer to your question is a simple one. Simply stated one’s equity allocation would be related to one’s tolerance for risk. Usually a capital presentation portfolio does have some equity in it about 10 to 20 percent. A conservative allocation would have about and up to the 40% range in equity. A moderate allocation would be one that has up to about 60% in equities and an aggressive allocation would have up to about 80% in equities. These are by my rule of thumb and the allocations will vary somewhat by brokerage house.
So again, it can be said, that ones tolerance for risk will determine one’s equity allocation within one’s portfolio. And, don’t forget cash … this will vary too based upon certain factors. And, with this bonds fill in the rest.
Have a good day and good investing,
Skeeter

Below are some hyperlinks (at least I hope they work) to pages to mutual fund estimated distributions. The name of the funds are in the hyperlink or in parenthesis.
http://www.quakerfunds.com/products_6_3_3.php
http://www.odysseyfunds.com/prices_and_performance/distribution_information.html
http://www.artisanfunds.com/distributions/current.cfm
http://www.oldmutualus.com/companies/templates/mf_perf.asp?couFlag=0&curFlag=0&assetID=19&affiliate=2&product=95&IsAIMR=0 (Acadian Funds)
http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/general/2011 Estimated Distributions 09-30-11.pdf
http://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Viewer.aspx?fileId=49964
https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/digitalAssets/Cap_Gains_Estimates_Consumer-ec6595bc-23fb-498c-99cd-0ccebe6e8698.pdf
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/Tax-Planning/Dividend-Distributions
http://www.longleafpartners.com/pdfs/11CapGainEst.pdf
http://ga.natixis.com/us/investor/1250199163837/Capital+Gains+Update+2011
http://www.fpafunds.com/pdfs/2011_CG_Estimates.pdf
http://clipperfund.com/estimated_capital_gains
http://astonfunds.com/shareholders/distributions-capital-gains
https://www.principalfunds.com/investor/aboutus/news/article-093011-Capital-Gains-Estimates.htm
or https://www.principalfunds.com/investor/docs/MM3682-09.pdf
http://firsteaglefunds.com/downloads/all/Distribution estimates_publicwebsite2011 09 30.pdf
https://www.franklintempleton.com/funds/fund-capital-gain-distributions
or https://www.franklintempleton.com/share/pdf/lit/GOF_PAKCG.pdf

Those looking for actual hedge funds can find some "feeder funds" on the pink sheets, including Third Point Offshore (TPNTF.PK) and Brevan Howard Macro (BHMDF.PK), but those are traded funds and are EXTREMELY (!!!) thinly traded "foreign ordinaries" (they trade officially on the London market.) Additionally, Greenlight RE (GLRE on the nasdaq) is a reinsurance company that invests with David Einhorn's hedge fund, Greenlight Capital. So, it's a roundabout way to invest with Einhorn. A couple of other hedge funds looking for stable capital are also going the reinsurance route this year - Third Point and (I believe) SAC Capital. Bill Ackman will also be listing a fund, although it's yet to be seen where it will be listed.
In terms of alternative funds, one of the best long-short funds is Marketfield (MFLDX) and in terms of alternative strategies, Natixis offers a few fine offerings. I like Rydex's Long-Short Commodity Fund a bit as a supporting player, but otherwise am not terribly fond of the Rydex funds. Timing and modeling are issues not unique to alternative funds, as well.

A few years back I was looking for microcap funds. I purchased Pinnacle Value for my wife's IRA, and Perrit Emerging Opportunities for my own. It was good until the crash. After a couple years, I moved my Perrit fund to Royce Microcap (ryotx). Ryoce lost much less than PREOX during the crash.
Although PREOX has gained more than the Royce fund since the bottom, as of April/May of this year the Royce fund nearly regained everything it lost. PREOX was still some 20% below its peak. I am happy to be with Royce over PREOX. Had I stayed in, I would be ahead because PREOX has been beating RYOTX the past 2 years,but I don't worry as much. As I am 60, I prefer to avoid the wilder swings.
Pinnacle Value has shown steady gains in the same period, gaining ~ 11% since Sept. 2007. What I expect of it is that it will beat inflation and money market returns, with relatively little risk.

Dear friends,
As Investor notes, below, the November site update went live on Halloween night. A handful of highlights:
a profile of Pinnacle Value (PVFIX) - this is a microcap value fund that does act like it. The manager, John Deysher, is very conscious of valuations and volatility and tends to hold lots of cash. He also experimented, with about 5% of the portfolio, with what he saw as a few attractively-priced alternative investments. Some of those have worked out quite well, some didn't. What you end up with is a microcap fund with strong returns and the volatility of a mid-cap one.
a profile of Manning & Napier Dividend Focus (MNDFX) - this is a megacap value fund that was designed by M&N to test the hypothesis that it's possible to have an attractive, actively-managed alternative to indexing. In addition to a first-rate management team, the fund is attractive because it offers M&N's lowest expense ratio (0.6%) which means that you're buying the management team at a 50% discount.
the Observer's Honor Roll of funds - the behavioral finance research suggests that it's more important to look at the downside of an investment, rather than the upside because investors are a lot more sensitive to the pain of losses than to the pleasure of gains. We might think that we're Ken Heebner and Tom ("Tom Terrific") Thurlow type investors. (Do you even remember Thurlow Growth? Nine stocks, 900% turnover, 200%+ returns until ...) Mostly we're kidding ourselves, so we've screened for funds that have never bombed. Not a perfect strategy, but an interesting start since the simple criterion "never in the bottom third" leads to a lot of funds whose long-term returns are in the top third.
a warning on fund data on the web - the portfolio reports for MNDFX were so freakishly, irrationally inconsistent from one site to the next that I had to use them as a cautionary tale. Jason Zweig, of the Wall Street Journal, found the story interesting enough that he did a follow-up of it online: http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/11/03/fund-data-gone-wild/
a couple intriguing funds in registration - Miller Tabak, a behind-the-scenes powerhouse whose services enable hedge funds and institutional investors to execute their strategies, is launched a low-minimum arbitrage fund. It's wildly overpriced (2.7%) but intriguing on principle.
And a couple other neat little pieces and fund updates as well.
Hope you enjoy them.
David

Reply to @Maurice: The Morningstar data is just information, it doesn't actually say what will happen. But given that there have been significant redemptions, Fairholme had to sell something. So I would fully expect that they'd be picking the highest cost lots to sell from to offset the gains; it's really basic tax management. Berkowitz moved to Florida in part to avoid state income taxes so it's a good bet that he'd keep a close eye on the cap gains.

With the poor performance this year, they should be able to harvest losses to cancel out the gains. Morningstar has their potential cap gains exposure as -13% so it's unlikely we'll see capital gains distributions this year.

Howdy Kaspa,
Thank you for the update. I will presume you may have looked at these two, too; as they have a relationship to sectors you are invested.
EDV
LTPZ
You have not noted; so I will presume you are satisfied with your returns, YTD.
I will note that I have a smile on my face as I write this portion; as you note that you are not convinced about bonds; and our house is also on the fence with just about every sector we hold. WAIT, I will adjust that thought.........investment grade bonds and some areas of Treasury issues, including TIPs should hold their own over the next year.....my best guess, eh?
I am only convinced that the best of the traders; be it equity or bonds, should have very large gains at year's end, when they add up the profits.
Take care,
Catch

RBC Wealth Management
Michael D. Ruccio, AAMS
Senior Vice President
25 Hanover Road
Florham Park, NJ 07932-1407
(p) (866) 248-0096
(f) (973) 966-0309
[email protected]
www.rbcwm-usa.com
Market Week: October 31, 2011
The Markets
Double-barreled relief over the economy and the plan for attacking the European debt crisis powered a rally in equities. In the wake of Thursday's 340-point jump in the Dow, the industrials were closing in on their best month since January 1987 with a 12% gain, and the Russell 2000's 18% gain since September 30 will likely make October its best month ever. By Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had regained roughly three-fourths of their losses since mid-July. The renewed global optimism sent bond yields up.
Market/Index 2010 Close Prior Week As of 10/28 Week Change YTD Change
DJIA 11577.51 11808.79 12231.11 3.58% 5.65%
Nasdaq 2652.87 2637.46 2737.15 3.78% 3.18%
S&P 500 1257.64 1238.25 1285.08 3.78% 2.18%
Russell 2000 783.65 712.42 761.00 6.82% -2.89%
Global Dow 2087.44 1846.63 1964.49 6.38% -5.89%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.30% 2.23% 2.34% 11 bps -96 bps
Last Week's Headlines
Eurozone leaders finally announced an agreement they hope will build a firewall around Europe's sovereign debt problems and enable banks to keep credit flowing in the region. Under the agreement, banks holding Greek debt will receive 50% of what they're owed, in hopes that the reduction will enable Greece to cut its debt to 120% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020. To help cushion future losses, banks will have to raise €147 billion to cover higher capital reserves. The agreement also would raise the resources of the European Financial Stability Facility to roughly €1.4 trillion, though there were no details on how the increase would be paid for. Finally, the agreement allows the EFSF to maximize its resources by guaranteeing sovereign bonds or setting up special-purpose vehicles to provide financial support.
The odds of a double-dip recession seemed to dim after the Commerce Department said the economy grew almost twice as fast in the third quarter as it did during the second. The 2.5% initial estimate of growth surpassed Q2's 1.3% and Q1's anemic 0.4%. The report also said that consumer spending rose 2.4%, including a 4.1% increase in durable goods and 3% growth in spending on services. Exports were up 4%, and business capital spending jumped 16.3%. Government spending was unchanged as a 1.3% drop in state and local government spending helped offset a 2% increase in federal government spending.
Home prices rose in August in the 20 cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Though prices were still 3.8% lower than a year earlier, the increase was the fifth in a row, suggesting that prices could be starting to stabilize. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes were up 5.7% in September.
Americans spent more and saved less in September; according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending was up 0.6%, while the savings rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.1% the month before. Meanwhile, incomes rose 0.1%.
A drop in orders for transportation equipment led to a 0.8% decrease in new durable goods orders in September. The Commerce Department said it was the third straight month of declines.
The more income you had over the last two decades, the more income you got, according to a study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. For the 1% of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax income rose 275% between 1979 and 2007. Households in the top 20% saw a 65% increase in income, while for the 60% of the population in the middle, incomes grew just under 40%. Those in the bottom 20% saw an 18% increase from 1969 to 2007. The CBO said the shift in overall pre-tax income (not counting taxes and payments such as Medicare/Social Security benefits) was caused by two factors. Income sources, such as jobs, became increasingly concentrated in fewer individuals (the most important factor); also, capital gains and business income represented a larger percentage of overall U.S. income, while the share of income from salaries and wages fell.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Earnings reports should receive more attention now that a European rescue operation has been announced (though details of the debt game plan also will be under scrutiny). Unemployment data will be of interest in light of the new GDP number, as will the Fed's Wednesday announcement.
Key dates and data releases: U.S. manufacturing, auto sales, construction spending (11/1); Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting (11/2); weekly new jobless claims (11/3); business productivity, factory orders, U.S. services sector (11/3); unemployment/payrolls (11/4).

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Liberal it is; as in a Liberal Arts degree, whether an actual diploma from a course of study, or the ongoing study of everything. One may have formal training or a degree in a specialized field that allows your employment and/or maintaining that your employer views "you" as the last person they could afford to lose; as your work ethic and knowledge are an asset. I have specialized training in the electo-mechanical/computer based world of knowledge, that has served me well for income over the years. ;
I am a naturally curious person; which may also mean that I am a jack of all trades/knowledge, and perhaps a master of none. However, such broadbased knowledge for a curious mind; does, in my opinion have value as it translates into the investment world. These broadbased knowledge areas for anyone may favor particular areas for one's own comfort zone. Such an example for myself; among the many areas of music to which I listen, is that I am not a fan of opera and some forms of classical music. This does not mean that I do not revisit these areas of music; as we all constantly evolve and re-form who we as we experience more life, whether being aware of these sometimes, slow changes, or not. My naturally curious mind does not let me become locked into confined areas of potential knowledge; the exception being the broadbased areas of knowledge for investments. I have no problem discovering and obtaining knowledge, as related to investing; from any number of folks on the tv business channels, that vary from the hard "right or left" style of thinking about where or what to invest, as well as the 1,000's of opinions since the market melt of 2008 and "how" to help correct the current economic situation. No one is twisting my arm to watch and listen to any of this; but I/we personally must draw in these opinions to help this house digest and attempt to realize the meanings and/or ramifications of potential actions and what the end result may be upon current and future investment sectors.
Focus upon what you must for your employment; or if retired, what you enjoy. But, do not become entrenched in a narrowly focused journey of knowledge that would preclude you from any new adventure in learning.
I am singing to the MFO choir; but there are always some new visitors here.
As one's time allows, continue the Liberal Arts studies; as one never knows what little piece of text or spoken words will trigger a new thought, a clarification of previously unconnected dots of thought or perhaps the simplification of what one thought was a more complex proposition. The source may be from a book, a movie, a television program or a spoken conversation from any subject area one chooses to discover. The source need not be new; and could come from perhaps a book or movie from the 1940's.
At a point in my very early 20's, while writing a letter to a friend; I noted that, "If I could make a statement or ask a question, that caused someone to think of something they had never before considered; or to observe a topic they were familiar with, but from a different perspective, I would find that particular day, as fulfilled." We, at this house; must also apply this same function when presented with a statement or question.
MFO, and formerly FundAlarm are prime, positve examples of "eyes wide open" statements and questions for helping navigate the investment highway. Combine what you learn here, with all of the other pieces from your Liberal Arts of the World of Everything knowledge and you may find a type of intuition for your investment choices.
Never stop learning.....
A short blip about Europe. One may choose any number of connective stories about the "conditions" that exist. For more than 2 years, one may consider that the collective EU has been aware that their "house" is a "fixer upper". So, buy another house or fix the existing house would be the common question for an indivivdual. The EU has known about the problems with the old house; and has started to make a list of fixes, and the projected cost of repairs. This is all well and good; but the problem remains, in terms of the housing market; that they have not yet qualified for the loan to make the repairs. Until this is settled, the overhang of doubt and ability to "get the loan" remains and will continue to affect the value of all homes in the neighborhood (read that as global markets and investment sectors). So, a kinda fix; from the plan last week, but all the neighbors are still a watch'in with their shoulders hunched upward.
A money move last week as indicated further down the page.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
SOME CASH MOVED TO FNMIX, which already had some monies invested from this house; and the percentages of holdings has been adjusted accordingly. The $U.S. has maintained and gained value since this past spring. This has kept dollar denominated emerging markets bond funds in a somewhat sideways mode relative to NAV's. Recent downward moves in the $US may or may not be in place at this time to hold going forward. So, the EM bond additional monies is a bit of a coin toss; but we will gather the yield while hopefully awaiting a continued upward move in NAV.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +1.76 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !)
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
We can hardly wait until Oct. 31 to find whether it will be the trick or the treat.
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 3.2%
Mixed bond funds = 88.7%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 19.8%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income

Reply to @MikeM:
Thanks MikeM,
I like the simplicity of your plan. Part of the problem at our mom's ages...hopefully our ages one day... is the spend down dynamic. My feeling is that a portion this money needs to be in a "spend down investment". CDs are not spend down vehicles...the money needs to be locked away even if for short periods of time. There isn't much difference between a short term CD and a high interest checking account in today's markets. Maybe this will change, but possibly not in our parent's life time.
So I am looking for an investment that I could fund with two years of money ($600*24 = $14400) while letting the remaining money (in my mom's case, another $21K) to "grow". Also, at the end of each year a reallocation of any gains could be moved into the :spend down" fund. In some years there would not be a gain but a nice thing about a fund like VWINX or RPSIX (also suggested) is their track record of consistent positive yearly gains. Not home runs and strike outs...but instead a lot of singles and doubles.
I seem to be leaning toward a total return fund like TGMNX or similar for a spend down fund along with a conservative allocation fund like VWINX or RPSIX. I might further diversify with a foreign bond fund like TGBAX. Maybe a tad of PRPFX...and a smidge of MAPIX...wait a minute! Its really hard to just pick one or two flavors.
Thanks for your comments.

http://individual.troweprice.com/staticFiles/Retail/Shared/PDFs/PriceReports/Fall2011PriceReport.pdf#page=1&placementGUID=em_prcreport&creativeGUID=EMBDHT&v_sd=201110
kipinger best 25 mf
http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=2151863
stinker of the yr
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20111023/REG/310239985
M* ranks best/worst MF for 401K
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/morningstar-ranks-best-worst-mutual-funds-401k/story?id=14789497
loomin ETF shakeout
http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/8945-the-looming-etf-shake-out.html
putman offering new retirement income funds & tools
http://www.financial-planning.com/news/Putnam-retirement-tools-mutual-funds-2675713-1.html
are you bogleing
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2011/10/24/are-you-bogleing/
also - ot
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2011/10/25/why-hatteras-financial-corp-is-a-top-10-reit-stock-with-15-34-yield/
vanguard dividend etf
http://www.etftrends.com/2011/10/a-closer-look-at-vanguards-high-dividend-etf/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ETF Trends&utm_content=
junks bonds are hot but there are still plenty of fire
http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/21/markets/bondcenter/high_yield_bonds/
which investors are in long term
http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2011/10/24/groupon-which-investors-are-in-for-the-long-term/
Market Week: October 24, 2011
The Markets - rbc investments
A tug-of-war between earnings and Europe dominated equities last week. The Dow industrials overcame a discouraging start to the week and managed a third straight week of gains. However, the Nasdaq slipped back into the loss column, while the S&P 500's encouraging week still left it in negative territory for the year and the small-cap Russell 2000 continued to struggle.
Market/Index 2010 Close Prior Week As of 10/21 Week Change YTD Change
DJIA 11577.51 11644.49 11808.79 1.41% 2.00%
NASDAQ 2652.87 2667.85 2637.46 -1.14% -.58%
S&P 500 1257.64 1224.58 1238.25 1.12% -1.54%
Russell 2000 783.65 712.46 712.42 -.01% -9.09%
Global Dow 2087.44 1845.80 1846.63 .04% -11.54%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 3.30% 2.26% 2.23% -3 bps -107 bps
Last Week's Headlines
Despite strong words from G-20 finance ministers about the need for a formal plan for containing the damage from European debt problems, the eurozone continued to debate ways to enhance the European Financial Stability Facility's resources. However, any formal agreement failed to appear last week, though French and German leaders said they anticipated having one this week. In the meantime, Moody's warned that France's AAA debt could be hit with a negative outlook if its budget is strained by bailout demands; it also downgraded Spain's debt from Aa2 to A1.
September's 0.3% consumer inflation rate was the third increase in as many months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that put the inflation rate for the last 12 months at 2%. At the wholesale level, inflation was worse; driven mostly by a 2.3% jump in energy costs and a 10% increase in the prices of vegetables, it spiked up 0.8% in September, for a 6.9% rate for the last year.
Federal Reserve manufacturing numbers were mixed. The New York region was negative for a fifth straight month, while new orders were flat. However, the Philadelphia Fed survey showed improvement, jumping from -17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive number in three months. Nationwide, industrial production rose 0.2% in September and was 3.2% higher than a year ago.
China's efforts to try to control inflation there contributed to a slower pace of economic growth--9.1%--during the third quarter. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, that's down from Q2's 9.5%.
Housing starts shot up 15% in September, putting them 10.2% above last year. According to the Commerce Department, that's the highest level since before the homeowner's tax credit expired last year. Building permits, an indicator of future construction activity, fell 5% from August, though they also were up from a year ago.
Sales of existing homes dropped 3% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®, though compared to the previous September, they were up 11.3%.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Action or lack thereof at the midweek European debt summit is likely to affect the mood of the markets. A first look at Q3 economic growth also will be of interest.
Key dates and data releases: home prices, consumer confidence (10/25); new home sales, durable goods orders (10/26); initial estimate of Q3 gross domestic product, pending home sales, weekly new jobless claims (10/27); personal income/spending, labor costs, consumer sentiment (10/28).

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Too busy of a weekend with other than money watching. Briefly; peeked at any news for EU and appears a coin toss; although the early Asian markets are somewhat happy. Started our own project of OOOF, Occupy Our Own Funds. Minimal outside managerial, political or other influences to affect our policy making decisions to OOOF; aside from the normal tiny variables in the global monetary market places...:):):) A money move last week as indicated further down the page.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
SOME CASH MOVED TO FINPX, which already had some monies invested from this house; and the percentages of holdings has been adjusted accordingly.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +.67 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 3.65 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
We can hardly wait until Oct. 31 to find whether it will be the trick or the treat.
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 4.5%
Mixed bond funds = 87.4%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

Makes perfect sense, bee. Truly, my own portfolio is always a work in progress, though the way the process has worked-out amounts to making BIG changes, but rather SELDOM. Talk about concentrated bets! My holdings are very much a barbell affair these days. Some folks here in MFO and the old FundAlarm will know of my conviction that the future is Asia's. I'm holding 34.66% of my total in MAPIX and 3.14% in MACSX....MACSX has turned out to be the fund I "raid" for big-ish expenses like vacations. It is our ONLY regular, taxable investment which is not in an IRA, so cost-basis info. is provided. I waited just a few days recently before redeeming a chunk, and so we made a 2% profit on that lump of shares we just cashed-in. TWO percent. Not wonderful, but better than a loss. Since 2003 when I began with Matthews, I have quite RANDOMLY dollar-cost-averaged my share purchases into MACSX at $300 each time. It became a "random habit."
So my Asia total comes to 37.8% of total portfolio holdings. As I recall, I opened my MAPIX account about three years ago, and M* shows that particular fund to be UP almost 20% over that time-frame. I reinvest cap gains and dividends. (The original amount I put into MAPIX was a switch-over: lock, stock, and barrel, from TAVIX, after 2 years or so of disappointing under-performance there. I'd been in TAVIX for a long time.)
The other side of the barbell is my PREMX stake. Since I got into it a little more than a year ago, it is just above the break-even point. (per M*.) My PREMX= 41.57% of my total.
In addition, I have PFE Pfizer stock which is an inheritance I just came into this summer: 14.61% of my total holdings. The share price is down right now. It was above $20/share in the early summer. There was a .20 cents/share div. in Sept....And finally: my only other holding right now is a foreign gov't bond---in US dollars--- which comes to just over 6% of my total.
I expect to be able to diversify further , which is my intention--- before too long, with some "new" money. If my positions look risky in terms of their proportion to one another, I'm certainly aware. I just don't want to go in and rearrange right now, when I know I'll be doing that before too long, again. "Seldom" is really and truly the way I prefer to "play" with my portfolio.
Interesting question. I'll be watching for other responses, too.