Calvert Funds:
http://www.calvert.com/newsArticle.html?article=19862&source=RSS:+
Calvert Funds (revised):
http://www.calvert.com/newsArticle.html?article=20042&source=RSS:+
Diamond-Hill Funds:
http://www.diamond-hill.com/documents/FG/dhill/MF/3306_YTD_Capital_Gain_09302012.pdf
Waddell& Reed Funds:
http://www.waddell.com/NetCommon/MutualFunds/pdf/cap_gain_estimates_wra.pdf
Heartland Funds:
http://www.heartlandfunds.com/individual-investors/Heartland-Funds-Account-Resources/Heartland-Funds-Tax-Information.htm
Pioneer Funds (Pioneer Fund has a really big payout) (revised 11/12/12):
http://us.pioneerinvestments.com/misc/pdfs/taxcenter/capgains12_nov.pdf
DWS Funds:
https://www.dws-investments.com/EN/docs/products/2012-Estimated-capital-gain-distributions.pdf

I think this weeding-out is healthy.
Let's face it, most ETFs and Mutual Funds (and I suspect Hedge Funds) are just asset collectors, like Ed Thorpe warns...few have an edge against the market.
The only thing they will guarantee is a management fee and/or a percentage cut of any gains.
Thanks Ted for sharing.

Turner Funds:
http://www.turnerinvestments.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/content.page/nodeID/40e0afc4-60c9-4da8-99e4-cfd60425c58b/
Selected Funds:
http://selectedfunds.com/estimated_capital_gains
Principal Funds:
https://www.principalfunds.com/investor/aboutus/news/article-101512-Capital-Gains-Estimates.htm
Fiduciary Management Funds (FMI):
http://www.fiduciarymgt.com/fmifundsestimated-distributions/

I should elaborate. My father is 87 years old. While I know that sounds old, he's really in pretty good physical shape, and expects to be around for a few more years. He wants an investment that does not vary much in price, and gives a good solid dividend yield that also does not vary much. In other words, no "dividend surprises". He owns a lot of stocks, and tries to avoid the ones that announce dividend reductions (and subsequently get hammered on their share price as soon as trading opens up the next day). He'd prefer 90% of the management effort be put into a steady price and reliable dividend, and only 10% be put into capital appreciation. "Equity income", with emphasis on the "income".

Thanks scott, Kenster, as always.
scott, gotta tell ya, very much appreciate your perspectives on future banking (I agree), the way you articulate importance of education (for the masses) in investing, independent perspectives on funds, the desire to make tough decisions, and having open and healthy debate.
Trust you will announce on MFO when you decide to seek political office. Seriously.
In The Little Book of Economics, by Greg Ip, 2010, he describes that a nation's productivity is dependent on three things: people, capital, and ideas.
I see a healthy BAC, C, WFC, MS, and GS as providers of capital. But I think you are warning that their ultimate health is dependent on structural changes in the macro economic framework of our nation.

Today - Oct 15
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroups-results-buoy-financial-sector-2012-10-15
Citigroup’s results buoy financial sector
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Citigroup Inc. shares extended earlier gains Monday, up nearly 5% as the company reported better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter, sparking gains in financial stocks and a modest advance for the broader market.
The results, and the market move higher, came as welcome relief as investors look to recover from the worst week of trading since June.
Citigroup’s third-quarter net profit fell 88% to $468 million as the company (C +4.45%) took charges tied to the value of its debt and the sale of a stake in its brokerage joint-venture, but core revenue in its main businesses continued to improve.
Nomura Securities analyst Glenn Schorr told clients that there were signs of “mostly progress” for Citigroup in its quarterly results.

Retirement is a place far away for many investors. Today's 30 year old likely has few thoughts about being older someday, or having a plan that far into the future. However, many of us here; have "been there, done that" and know how fast the clock of life moves along. At the very least, even a most modest investment plan into a balanced investment (50/50 equity-bonds), until a younger investor gains more knowledge; would be a prudent choice with a percentage of one's income. Several factors are in place today regarding "retirement monies".
1. traditional defined benefit pensions continue to be removed in the private sector,
2. and are being replaced by defined contribution plans (the individual retirement plan);
3. which leaves Roth IRA's as another choice to build a retirement portfolio.
This is not all inclusive, by any means; but indicates how much an individual will be on their own to establish a retirement plan. The next 20-40 years of retirees will find a much different monetary picture versus today's retiree's.
Aside from your own plan, you should help others you know to understand the future ramifications. First, an emergency money fund; then investments. Start and continue learning about establishing sound household budgets, as well as investing principles. The young ones today need to understand the value of time upon the compounding of their investment returns; as with every day that passes, will be the loss of this one time event that the clock of time will continue to erode.
Lastly, and this will not apply to all households; is the value of your own skills and time related to investments. When one saves money via their own skills, this too is a form of investing; or at least saving money that may be invested.
I have always been inclinced toward the technical side of life. I have earned a good living from these skills. These skills and desire have always been present in daily life, too; related to repairs/maintenance around the house and all related. I have paid myself a very substantial wage from some of this work by eliminating "outside labor", which is generally half of the cost of many repairs. A bonus being that I learned while doing, too. A plumber in our area will need $100 just to arrive at the house; and then the hourly rate and parts clock begins to run. While there may be some who will not be home owners in retirement; for those who are, what you used to "take care of" around the house will find a time when you can not or choose not to be the "fix-it" person. All of this will add up to lots of little piles of expense, that can become a large pile of money flows that will require spending retirement monies that may not have been in the original budget. In spite of the tv and print ads; you may have to postpone that retirement vacation to Bali !!!
For the young ones, don't forget to value your "D.I.Y." time; but also don't forget, that this will end at some point in the future.
Depending upon individual circumstances, of course; there are a larger number of retiree's today who also did not plan on the kids returning home to live, or perhaps monetarily bailing out their children. Things change, eh? One can attempt to prepare; or just say "to hell with it" and take the trip to Bali. To each, their own direction.
Hopefully, others may add some thoughts to this vast area of consideration.
Regards,
Catch

Quaker Funds (including former Penn Avenue Event Driven fund investors):
http://www.quakerfunds.com/performance/tax/2012distributions
SSGA Funds:
http://www.ssgafunds.com/library-content/public/Cap Gains Estimate - 08 fiscal 10.08.12_final.pdf
Mainstay Funds(including Mainstay Marketfield Fund):
http://www.nylinvestments.com/public_files/MainStay/PDF/Home/MSSR06-10-12.pdf
Vulcan Value Partners:
http://vulcanvaluepartners.com/uploads/file/Capital Gains/MF Estimated Cap Gains 2012.pdf
Tweedy, Browne Funds:
http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/general/2012 Estimated Distributions 09-30-12.pdf

Some quotes:
“The compelling simplicity of a 60/40 strategy is very hard to beat,” Timothy J. Keating, president of Keating Investments in Greenwood Village, Colo., and author of two reports on endowment performance, told me this week. “Many investors would be much better served with a simple 60/40 strategy, or at least a core where you have low-cost index funds. When you understand the role of transaction fees, it’s a very high mountain to scale.”
Simon Lack, a founder of SL Advisors in Westfield, N.J., and a hedge fund insider — he allocated capital to hedge funds during his 23 years at JPMorgan Chase — caused a stir earlier this year with his book, “The Hedge Fund Mirage,” in which he calculated that the hedge fund industry as a whole lost more money in one year (2008) than it had made in the previous 10 years. “If all the money that’s ever been invested in hedge funds had been put in Treasury bills instead, the results would have been twice as good,” he asserted. And he maintained that nearly all the hedge funds’ gains had gone to hedge fund managers rather than clients.
It is a very good article.

it is NET equity exposure that should concern you from the asset allocation perspective. 51% should not be added to cash. When the stocks are sold short, the resulting proceeds are kept as collateral. the possibilities of underperformance of longs vs shorts and therefore larger losses or gains compared to the net exposure is the manager's ability to pick the right stocks to buy and sell, i.e. alpha, not beta.

Hi Scott,
With having to devote more time to work ... I am not able to get to the board as I have in the past. I take a good bit of the summer off and my boss takes a good bit of the fall off. With this, I have more things to do during the day at work. So it is now about 3;30 AM Eastern and from a quick check of the foreign markets I am finding most of them are soft.
On to earnings season and the states side market. From what I have been able to research and read I am finding that anticipated full year 2012 earnings will most likely come in beween $98.00 to about $103.00 range for the S&P 500 Index. So let's just round it to $100.00 for this excerise.
Currently, the S&P Index is about 1440 as of 10/09/2012 market close. I am thinking though I'll become a buyer around S&P 1400 and with this I'll be buying towards the lower range of what many consider a normal P/E Ratio of 14 to 16. On trailing earnings I am finding that the index is currently selling on about a ratio number of 16. So it has now worked its way back into the upper range with this modest pull back from a recent high of about 1475 and with this as it was selling at about a 16.4 trailing P/E Ratio number.
Going to get my buying britches on soon ... if we see somewhere around 1400 on the Index ... might have to step up and pay more than I want inspite of knowing stormy seas might lay ahead as we still have a lot of issues to transverse through this quater and into 2013.
Still, many from what I have read feel equities are the only game in town right now.
Even so, I'd say govern with caution and be mindful of one's risk tolerance. I know I plan to keep within my asset allocation as I plan to raise equities from about 45% (last Xray review) to about 50%, or so, and from there let capital appreciation work and get them to about 55%, or more, through anticipated appreciation going forward. Then trim them back booking some profit as they become more fully valued. Still I feel it is a time to walk softly.
Have a great day and ... Good Investing.
Skeeter

American funds:
https://www.americanfunds.com/resources/tax/capital-gains/index.htm

Earnings are likely going to disappoint, but I think there's still going to be elements of hedge funds playing catchup and money having to go somewhere (and more printed money on the way) taking stocks higher. I'd say there may be money coming out of fixed income and into stocks, but that continues to not happen. Over time, I think there's going to be nominal gains and those selectively in equities will likely benefit from some degree of protection as purchasing power declines.
As I've noted in other threads, I continue to think that various sectors will continue to do well - agriculture, infrastructure/hard assets and mobile-related, etc. The other key sector that I think will do well is financial services/tech, as I believe more and more basic banking will be done via mobile and online.
There are 1.7B people with a phone and no bank account (and probably millions who are unsatisfied with their bank for basic banking due to monthly fees and otherwise), and Amex, MC and Visa are going after them. There will be - I think - a lot less bank branches over time. While I think it won't happen overnight, it will be interesting to see companies like Visa trying to move more into offering basic banking services.
American Express just launched their new Bluebird bank account alternative at Wal-Mart yesterday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49327154
"A prepaid debit card called Bluebird, created through a partnership with American Express Co. (AXP), will be available in more than 4,000 U.S. Wal-Mart stores and online next week, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company said yesterday in a statement. Services include direct deposit, automatic bill pay and remote check capture using a smartphone application. The card has no monthly or annual fees, and doesn’t require a minimum balance.
“Bluebird is designed as a checking and debit alternative,” Daniel Eckert, vice president of financial services for Wal-Mart U.S., said in an interview. The product is for “those customers who are waking up to the skyrocketing costs of having a checking account.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-09/wal-mart-offers-bank-account-option-with-american-express
Again, earnings are going to disappoint to some degree - I think - in many instances, but while the overall market may become more volatile again, I think there are a lot of big changes going on in (or due to) technology (big names like HP just unable to catch up), finance ("financial inclusion" as Visa and others go after over a billion people with a phone and no bank account) and elsewhere that may provide opportunities.
Additionally, I'm finding it rather curious that Amazon and Google are now essentially offering a variation of vendor financing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-08/online-retailers-launch-vendor-financing-apple-credit-corp-imminent
Finally, as for bond inflows, from Marketfield's August letter:
"Week after week, billions of dollars leave domestic equity funds and relocate in fixed income vehicles, despite the apparent lack of return
potential in the latter. The rationale, as far as we can determine, has nothing to do with prospective returns and everything to do with a combination of hindsight and emotion.
People are fed up with stocks not because they believe the return characteristics to be inadequate, but because they cannot tolerate the emotional impact of equities’ volatility. The present day volatility of publicly traded companies is a function of regulatory failure as pertains to market structure and not anything intrinsic in businesses. We don’t dismiss the real, emotional pressure of dealing with seemingly random, violent
moves in quoted prices. It is a constant factor in our daily lives as fund managers. We do, however, see enough of it first hand to realize just
much of it has to do with failures of market structure and how little with real business or economic results. Bonds have become the favored retail asset because of their historical results and apparent lack of volatility. "
http://www.nylinvestments.com/public_files/MainStay/PDF/Marketfield/MFLDX201208.pdf

'Tis the season, Thanksgiving, Christmas or Hanukkah or other holiday, and capital gains/dividend distribution day for mutual funds has come around again this year. If anyone sees any mutual fund families' distributions not posted, please post them.
Here are some links for mutual fund families:
First Eagle: http://www.firsteaglefunds.com/downloads/all/Distribution estimates_publicwebsite2012 08 31.pdf
Wasatch:
https://secure.wasatchfunds.com/Our-Funds/~/media/Docs-Fund/Regulatory/2012_Est_Cap_Gain_Dist_Notice.ashx
Columbia:
https://performance.columbiamanagement.com/content/columbia/pdf/2012_ACORN_FNDS_YEAR-END_CAPITAL_GAIN_EST.PDF
Franklin/Templeton:
https://www.franklintempleton.com/share/pdf/Cap Gain Indications Comm 2012 FINRA.pdf
or
Franklin/Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com/funds/fund-capital-gain-distributions
Janus: https://ww3.janus.com/SiteObjects/published/FFFFFFFFA8347B540106A689CB6E5086/3760F35C6A4E5B8032A0C29AE7FE9908/file/Janus Funds Preliminary Distribution Estimates 2012 v2.pdf
Hartford:
https://financialprofessional.hartfordinvestor.com/planco/om/MF5753_12.pdf
Nuveen:
http://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Viewer.aspx?fileId=49964
Schroder:
http://www.schroderfunds.com/staticfiles/Schroders/Sites/Americas/Schroderfunds/documents/EstimatedDividendDistributions.pdf
Barons:
http://www.baronfunds.com/mutual-funds/distribution-information---2012/
MFS:
https://www.mfs.com/wps/portal/mfs/us-advisor-pub/products/mutual-funds/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3j_QKNAf3MPIwMDdyNTAyM_D0M3Ew8DQwtXU6B8JJK8u4-Fo4GRi79bmLdZgIG7pSExug1wAEcDArr9PPJzU_ULckMjyh0VFQHzHnrl/dl3/d3/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/?PC_7_OQ2QO7H200G2502NH1F4H018U4000000_shareId=19&PC_7_OQ2QO7H200G2502NH1F4H018U4000000_viewMode=summaryYearEndEstimates

Interesting that Jaffe uses Vanguard to extol the virtues of ETFs. (Never mind Bogle's thoughts on ETFs, that's not where I'm going.)

With the exception of a few cost leaders — mostly institutional funds requiring big holdings — ETFs are dramatically cheaper than traditional funds covering the same indexes.

Vanguard index funds are the exception that proves the rule - for a $10K min - not institutional, and not an outrageous amount - Vanguard's Admiral shares generally carry the same expense ratio as their ETF shares. S&P 500 - 0.05%, FTSE All World ex-US - 0.18%, Extended Market - 0.14%, Total Bond - 0.10%, Total Stock - 0.06%, etc.. And because these are just two different share classes of the same funds, the reduction in costs that Jaffe is lauding on Vanguard's ETFs will show up in the Admiral shares also.

The one advantage traditional funds have is that an investor can dollar-cost average into the fund without paying repeated commissions, but no-transaction-fee ETFs offset this advantage.

This means that Admiral shares are only somewhat less expensive to buy and sell - you get them at NAV, rather than getting penalized by a bid/ask spread whenever you buy or sell, as you would with an ETF.

Index ETFs have a slight edge in tax efficiency over traditional index funds too.

Obviously not true for two shares classes (Admiral, ETF) of the same portfolio. Dividends and capital gains get distributed pro-rata to all shares, whether they are ETF class or other class.
There are other differences between ETF class shares and Admiral class shares, but they're not ones that Jaffe chose to discuss. He's focusing on costs.

Disappointing to me that folks like Christian Wagner, founder and chief investment officer of Longview Capital Management LLC, get portrayed as modern day risk managers.
Here's strategy from the Longview site, emphasizing "Downside Management."
A Flexible Strategy for A Changing World
The Longview Global Allocation Fund seeks to preserve and grow capital by producing absolute returns with reduced volatility. At Longview, we believe the changing global landscape presents investors with an unprecented opportunity to shift their investment perspective, establishing a global allocation strategy as the core of their investment portfolio.
Here is the performance of their showcase fund Longview Global Allocation LONGX, which I believe shows they captured most of the downside and little of the upside:

And, for the privilege of owning LONGX, investors get to pay 5.75% front load and 2.72% ER.
Can you believe?

Impressive short-term record, for sure. They have really loaded up on financial sector bonds, and clearly they will stretch for total return. Investors need to consider these things when deciding on whether to invest in the fund. Have the big gains already been achieved with the bonds they own? How much more capital appreciation can the managers squeeze out of them? The fund has a very high STD which could be problematic. Scout is a good shop, though. We would probably sidestep this fund in favor of a less high-octane option, like OSTIX.

Yup. Volatility is not risk. Permanent loss of capital is list. Case in point (while I hope not) - HSGFX. It keeps bleeding with low volatility.
However, I'm wondering if we are making things too complicated.
Long/Short = Bet on stocks that expected to rise. Short stocks expected to fall. Prospectus decides how much of portfolio is long and how much is short
Market Neutral = Half long, Half Short. Expect differential to provide return
Hedged = Decide on portfolio % to hedge against remaining long portfolio.
I don't think HSGFX is Long/Short fund. It is Hedge.
I don'g think FVALX is Long/Short fund. It is Hedge.
I think M* sucks. It does.

Reply to @LarryH: banks buy treasuries hi qual munis which count towards capital - demand for which has been greatly increased due to recent regulations. banks do not buy equities -- your mutual funds buy equities.

This is a test to see if it is possible to design a semi-automated weekly portfolio report, along the lines of Catch 22's. Our spreadsheet has been modified to collect the weekly data, and to automatically format it for posting. The report period is Monday-to-Monday, as we usually do not have computer access on Friday.. we'll see how this goes with respect to future weekly updates.
Following is the present portfolio percentage distribution, showing one-week changes (Monday-to-Monday).
Cash positions are not shown, but approximate portfolio distribution currently is:
Equity Funds: 17% / Bond Funds: 32% / Cash: 51% • (May not equal 100% due to rounding error.)

		10/1/12		
Change		AF = American Funds
% of	Since		AC = American Century
PF	9/24/12		S: = Schwab Account
ANCFX	7.1%	-0.36%		AF Fundamental Investors
SMCWX	3.8%	0%		AF Smallcap World Fund
CWGIX	2.2%	-0.14%		AF Capital World Growth & Income
ANEFX	6.9%	-0.31%		AF New Economy Fund
GABAX	2.5%	-0.76%		S: Gabelli Asset
MAPIX	0.9%	-0.43%		S: Matthews Asia Dividend
GASFX	0.9%	-0.27%		S: FBR Fund Advisors
MFLDX	2.1%	-1.52%		S: Marketfield
ABALX	16.2%	-0.29%		AF American Balanced Fund
GBLAX	0.1%	-0.46%		AF Global Balanced
TWSMX	9.1%	0.01%		AC Strategic Allocation (Moderate)
ABNDX	9.5%	0.35%		AF Bond Fund of America
AIBAX	7.5%	0.07%		AF Intermediate Bond Fund 
CWBFX	0.6%	0.23%		AF Capital World Bond Fund
AHITX	10.6%	-0.36%		AF High Income Trust
ABHIX	4.7%	-0.17%		AC High Yield Bond Fund 
BGNMX	1.1%	0.24%		AC GNMA Bond Fund
ADFIX	2.8%	0.45%		AC Diversified Bond Fund
ACITX	8.4%	0.37%		AC Inflation Adjusted Bond Fund
RPHYX	0.8%	0.05%		S: Riverpark Short Term HY
PONDX	2.2%	0.6%		S: PIMCO Income Fund (D) 
Total Weekly Portfolio Change:		0.1%		

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