funds-newsletter monthly news market weekly news - RBC website
Market Week: December 31, 2012
The Markets
Ending with a whimper: As the year wound to a close with no grand bargain out of Washington, equities took their own trip over the fiscal cliff last week. The last positive day for the S&P 500 was the Thursday before Christmas, and five straight down days took the Dow back under 13,000, the Nasdaq below 3,000, and the S&P 500 perilously close to 1,400. Though all four domestic indices are in far better shape than they were on last New Year's Eve, they also seem likely to end in negative territory for the quarter, handily outpaced--at least for Q4--by a resurgent Global Dow.
Market/Index 2011 Close Prior Week As of 12/28 Week Change YTD Change
DJIA 12217.56 13190.84 12938.11 -1.92% 5.90%
Nasdaq 2605.15 3021.01 2960.31 -2.01% 13.63%
S&P 500 1257.60 1430.15 1402.43 -1.94% 11.52%
Russell 2000 740.92 847.92 832.10 -1.87% 12.31%
Global Dow 1801.60 1998.76 1984.57 -.71% 10.16%
Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
10-year Treasuries 1.89% 1.77% 1.73% -4 bps -16 bps
Equities data reflect price changes, not total return.
Last Week's Headlines
With the fiscal cliff dead ahead, last-minute negotiations seemed to produce more questions than answers. The stalemate left the country facing tax increases and spending cuts and wondering what fresh uncertainties the new year might bring.
Orders for new durable goods orders rose 0.7% in November despite a drop in defense-related aircraft orders, according to the Census Bureau. It was the sixth increase in the last seven months, and the best news was a strong jump in new orders by businesses for capital goods, which were up 2.7% for the month.
Home prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index in October were up an average of 4.3% from a year earlier. Though 12 cities saw price declines from the month before, many of the cities showing the strongest improvement--Las Vegas, Detroit, Phoenix, San Francisco--are the ones that had been hardest hit by the housing collapse. Average home prices represented by the 20-city index are now at roughly the same levels that they were in the fall of 2003.
Sales of new homes soared 4.4% in November. According to the Commerce Department, that's the highest level since April 2010 and 15.3% higher than a year earlier. The $299,700 average sales price was up almost 20% from last November.
As it did in 2011, the U.S. Treasury will have to adopt "extraordinary measures" to avoid problems once the country hits the debt ceiling on New Year's Eve. A letter to congressional leaders from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the accounting measures are expected to extend the deadline for roughly two months.
Eye on the Week Ahead
Friday's monthly unemployment numbers and reports on both the manufacturing and services sectors may paint the last portrait of the pre-cliff economy.
Key dates and data releases: Federal Open Market Committee minutes, U.S. manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales (1/2); unemployment/payrolls, U.S. services sector, factory orders (1/4).
Our Funds Boat, Year-End, + 13.04%, 12-31-12 Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
The perspectives and investments are based, not upon a formal economic studies background; but from the "School of Hard Knocks & Studies", in which, we are still enrolled. NOTE: This portfolio is designed for retirement,
capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds.
Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around....."The bells are ringing for me and my bonds" or perhaps "Bonds on the Run" (from; Me and My Gal, Judy Garland/Gene Kelly, 1942, & Band on the Run, Paul McCartney/Wings, 1973). Numerous bond death announcements continue; and causes one to wonder whether they may awake from a deep sleep to find a neat stack of paper bonds upon their bed with blood streaming down the paper edges, not unlike hot chocolate poured upon one's favorite cake top. There has been a 10% increase in the yield of the 10 yr Treasury during the past few weeks. Is this a sign from the great bond gods? I don't know. All of us enjoy a well thought critique of an investment area. Whether I read a report about the equity or bond sectors; and an author states that this or that is go'in to hell in a hand basket, I will surely expect supporting details. Be as critical and watching of supporting evidence as possible; not just a statement from a perpetual equity bull. Yes, I include myself in this, too; be it equity or bond articles. I am picking on bonds and related stories now, because of all of the banner chat and headlines recently.
A few data trinkets related only to Fido funds and year 2012: U.S. oriented equity funds (51) returns ranged from +11.3 through +29% (avg.=+17.4%), Int'l equity funds (29) returns ranged between +4.1 through +36% (avg.=+19%) and Fido's select sector funds (39) ranged between +2.4% through +38% (avg.=+17.2%) (excluding their gold fund).
Equity or bond; there will be the happy and not so happy among them.
In the end, some bond funds will be happier than others with a sustained yield increase. Too many variables exist among active managed funds, etf's or indexes to determine the winners today.
As to the bond fund choices for us and their resulting managers, or lack of management; the range is far and wide, not unlike the equity world. Would you prefer government, corporate, muni or high yield? Where on the planet would you like the bond mix; U.S., Europe, Japan, perhaps emerging market debt? Quality. Would that be investment grade or down the ladder of qualilty into the junkiest stuff around? The same questions have to be asked of equity investments. For a taste of each area, one could get a little of each. Buy Verizon equity for quality of the stock and bond issues. Buy Frontier Communications (who bought, among other stuff; the throw aways of Verizon) and get a bit junker equity and bond offering. The same applies between Comcast and Charter Communications (cable provider). Comcast is in cruise mode at the time, more or less. Charter is playing in bankruptcy land. One pretty good and the other is trying to dig out of a hole. Combining the four, one may find a comfort zone between the stock and bond issues.
Stock etf list
Bond etf list
Perhaps a fully happy list of funds blended between bonds and equities; with the selected funds having their own balance, too; bond and equity funds with the full flexibility to "go with the flow" for their given mandate. Make a list of 10 each; to compensate for management problems here and there, and plant the money.
Lastly, as to the death of some bonds via a substantial and continued yield increase. I can not add anything further to what I or others have already detailed here during the past several months.
The futures have a real equity fire going as of Jan. 1, 5pm EST and perhaps some bonds will get burned tomorrow or for the remainder of this week, month or year.
Added note: Our 529 educational account is a straight forward 50/50 of VITPX and VBMPX, and managed an average of 10.4% for 2012. Our house will have to continue to review the more laggard funds we have, potential impacts and the hardest part; whether and/or what to sell and where to move the monies.
As to the funds list below, I had added after the tickers; the year return data. As to be expected with any holdings; there were some helpers and some laggards.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
Bonds 93.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.99%
Avg expense = .57%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)
---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income +16.4%
SPHIX Fid High Income +14.9%
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income +14.3%
DIHYX TransAmerica HY +14.9%
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total +6.5%
PTTRX Pimco Total +10.4%
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond +6.1%
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd +14.9%
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade +6.2%
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond +6.5%
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond +10.2%
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income +10.9%
FNMIX Fid New Markets +20%
DPFFX Delaware Diversified +7.1%
LSBDX Loomis Sayles +15.1%
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version) +21.9%
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign) +5.9%
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix) +18.9%
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside some of the above funds.
Mutual Funds That Beat The Market - Part 5 (Money Market) The last of this thread - money market funds, which tend to offer lowest risk, but with attendant lowest return over the long run. There have been times, however, when money market or "cash" has ruled, like from 1966 - 1984 when cash provided a strong 7.8% APR. Here's a reminder from Bond Fund Performance During Periods of Rising Interest Rates:

Some observations up-front:
- There are only 500 or so money market funds.
- The earliest inception date is 1972. It belongs to American Century Capital Presv Investor CPFXX. (But it is not one of better offerings.)
- Few new money market funds have been created in recent years.
- Few MFO readers discuss them and none have been profiled. M* does not appear to rate them or provide analyst reports of money market funds.
- No money market funds have loads, but many impose 12b-1 fees. The average EP is 0.5%.
- Fortunately, none have a negative absolute return over their life times.
- There are two main categories of money market funds: taxable and tax-free. The latter have existed since 1981 and represent about a third of offerings today.
- This plot summarizes average performance for the two types compared to the T-Bill:
- Since 1981, the annualized return for T-Bill is 5.0%. For money market funds, the average APR is 4.6% for the taxable (about the difference in average EP), and 2.9% for tax-free.
- Only 1 in 3 taxable money market funds have beaten the T-Bill over their life times. And virtually no tax-free funds have beaten, as you would expect.
Because of the strong tax dependency with these funds, I broke out this distinction in the tabulation below. Purple means the fund was a top performer relative to T-Bill over its life time, and yellow represents worst performing APR. (For the money market funds, I did not break-out top Sharpe in blue, since APR ranking relative T-Bill is fairly close to Sharpe ranking.)
Here's the break-out, by fund inception date:







For those interested, I've posted results of this thread in an Excel file Funds That Beat The Market - Nov 12.